Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Looking back at last week
Last Week: + 7.5 units
Overall Season (+15.5 units)
Hits
- We have been running hot with Thursday night Quarterback passing yard unders. Russell Wilson came up 120.5 yards short of his over/under. Kyler Murray was closer but still came in 22.5 yards under.
- We also hit on both the passing unders for Lions and Panthers. Matthew Stafford went under by nearly 100 yards.
- Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. We hit our over on Miles Sanders rushing yards (65.5) by half a yard (66). We also hit our over on Baker Mayfield’s passing yards (202.5) by a hair (204).
Misses
- We only hit one half of our Dolphins stack. DeVante Parker had three more receptions than Jerry Jeudy. But Tua Tagaovailoa did not keep up with Drew Lock as a disastrous performance led to him getting benched mid-game.
- The Monday Night game was rough. Robert Woods easily hit the over on his fantasy points while Ronald Jones II went under. We were on the opposite side of both.
Number 5: Thanksgiving special
Deshaun Watson (-24.5) more passing yards than Matthew Stafford
Will Fuller (-3.5) more passing yards than Brandin Cooks
- In five games without Kenny Golladay this season, Matthew Stafford has averaged just 221 passing yards per game.
- Stafford is also likely to be without his top slot wide receiver, Danny Amendola. Mohamed Sanu is set to make his Lions debut and has had very little time to build a rapport with Stafford. The lack of weapons for Stafford makes his job much more difficult.
- Deshaun Watson has thrown for 300+ yards in 5-of-7 games. One of the two games he failed to hit 300 yards was due largely to heavy winds. Watson threw for 344 yards last week against the Patriots.
- The Lions have only three healthy cornerbacks and will be without top rookie Jeff Okudah in this matchup. Both Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks will have plus matchups for Watson to exploit.
So to recap:
— Pride of Detroit (@PrideOfDetroit) November 25, 2020
CB Jeff Okudah - OUT
CB MIke Ford - OUT
CB Tony McRae- IR
CB Darryl Roberts - IR
CB Amani Oruwariye - questionable
Healthy CBs:
- Desmond Trufant
- Dee Virgin
- Justin Coleman
- In the few games Brandin Cooks has outperformed Will Fuller this season, it has often been the case that Fuller was shadowed by a top coverage corner. Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander and New England’s Stephon Gilmore both held Fuller in check. The Lions do not have an elite cover corner who is going to cause Fuller trouble.
Thursday vs. DET
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 24, 2020
Will Fuller will see:
Desmond Trufant / Justin Coleman on 60-70% of his routes.
These two corners have combined to allow a 73.4% catch rate. pic.twitter.com/aVReWFEBOA
Number 4: Thanksgiving Special #2
Antonio Gibson more than 13.5 fantasy points
Amari Cooper more than 14.5 fantasy points
- In the two games Andy Dalton started and finished, Cooper has averaged 6.5 catches for 80 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.
- Washington’s pass defense has been solid but has allowed 14+ fantasy points to multiple opposing wide receivers each of the last two weeks.
- In the previous matchup against Washington, Cooper dominated the wide receiver production for the Cowboys. In fact, he was the only Dallas wide receiver with a catch (7-80-0).
I'm really impressed with the way Amari Cooper has played this season.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 24, 2020
Four different QBs and he continues to produce and be highly efficient.
He's catching a career-high 72.2 percent of his targets and is on pace for another 1,100 yard season.
- Antonio Gibson has been coming on strong as he gets more comfortable at the NFL level. He has found the end zone in four straight games and has scored 14+ fantasy points in four straight.
CIN-WASH
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) November 25, 2020
Rookie RB Antonio Gibson —
Four rushes of 13+ yards in the Week 11 win...
Explosive traits. Dynamic ability as a receiver after the catch. And we are seeing his development as a runner this season. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/oOmQOZotFs
- The Cowboys have given up the second-most rushing yards (1,260) in the league to opposing running backs. Opposing backs are averaging 26.6 carries per game against Dallas, which is also second-most in the NFL.
- Gibson had the best game of his young career the last time he faced the Cowboys. He rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown in the Week 7 matchup.
Number 3: Unders in Cincy
Ryan Finley less than 200.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones less than 247.5 passing yards
- We need to jump on this one quickly since the Bengals have announced that Ryan Finley is not going to get the start. Even if this prop was for Brandon Allen, this Bengals passing game minus Joe Burrow is likely to struggle and not hit 200 yards.
Brandon Allen is FIFTH backup QB #Giants have faced, including second 3rd-stringer. So what to expect? #nyg have an insider on the coaching staff https://t.co/Cb0SUKoREM #Bengals #NYGvsCIN #WPS
— Ryan Dunleavy (@rydunleavy) November 26, 2020
- We are going with the correlation play here on the under. The Bengals looked completely shellshocked after the Burrow injury last week. While there has been happy talk about how the team is going to pull together, the reality is that this team has nothing to play for in the short term and just lost the one long-term piece that really mattered. On the other side, the Giants are in the thick of the playoff race and should e able to control this game without needing a huge day from Daniel Jones.
- Our FBG consensus projections have Jones throwing for 215 passing yards and none of the three projectors has him down for more than 217 yards. We are getting a ton of value on the Jones under.
- Jones has thrown for more than 247.5 yards only twice all season and is averaging only 212 passing yards per game.
Number 2: Injury edge
Julio Jones under 85.5 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs under 72.5 rushing yards
- As of Thursday morning, it looks like Julio Jones will probably on Sunday. He was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday. However, even if Jones is able to suit up, he is almost certainly not going to be 100%. The 85.5 over/under is a tough call if you assumed Jones was at full strength. There is clear value in the under knowing what we do about Jones’ health.
Falcons’ Julio Jones to be ‘game time’ decision https://t.co/AT3OBMiaT1
— AJC Sports (@AJCsports) November 24, 2020
- Jones tried to play through the injury last week against the Saints but did not look good doing so. "We'll learn more about him, obviously, and how far he can go and where he can take it," Atlanta’s interim head coach Raheem Morris said Monday. "But, obviously, the hamstring bothered him yesterday and gave him some real issues. He tried to fight through it like I knew he would, like he always does."
- The perception is that the Atlanta defense is weak against running backs but that has not been the case of late. The Falcons have not given up more than 72.5 rushing yards to an opposing running back since Week 5 and has not given up more than 89 rushing yards to any back they have faced all season.
- Atlanta is facing the fewest rushing attempts by opposing backs in the league (just 18.4 per game) and have given up the third-fewest rushing yards (66.7 per game).
- Devontae Booker has taken on an increased role in the backfield for the Raiders of late. Over the last three weeks, Booker has 29 carries to 52 for Jacobs. Booker has been more efficient with those touches, averaging 5.69 yards per carry to 4.46 for Jacobs, which means that this is likely to remain a committee moving forward.
The Raiders win as the former Ute Devontae Booker carries 16 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/z8ddL2XWSY
— David James (@DavidDJJames) November 16, 2020
Number 1: MNF Special
Taysom Hill (+38.5) more passing yards than Drew Lock
Michael Thomas (-17.5) more receiving yards than Tim Patrick
- We are going with a correlation play here. If Hill has success as a passer, then it is much more likely that Michael Thomas has a big game.
- Our consensus projections have Lock thrown for 238 yards and Hill throwing for 204, so we are getting a little bit of value on the +38.5 side. Our consensus projections have Thomas with 71 receiving yards and Patrick for 52 receiving yards, so again we are getting a little bit of value on the New Orleans side.
- Hill completed 18-of-23 passes for 233 yards in his first NFL start. The performance was more impressive than the numbers. One of the incompletions was on a bad drop by Michael Thomas that would have gone for about 30 yards. Hill also had a 57-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders called back due to holding. He was a couple of bad breaks away from a 300+ yard passing game. But for the penalty and the drop, I suspect we would not be getting anywhere near 38.5 yards against Lock.
Holding call nullified this deep shot FYI Taysom Hill to Emmanuel Sanders#Saints pic.twitter.com/c1MVWsknY4
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 23, 2020
- Drew Lock is playing injured. While there is no question he will start the game, rib injuries are tough and he is going to be one big hit away from having to sit out.
- Lock has thrown for 260 or fewer yards in 10-of-13 career starts and is averaging only 214 passing yards per game.