Photo: Eric Hartline, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Looking back at last week

Last Week: +11.5 Units

Overall Season (+13 units)

Week 9 was our best week of the season, hitting on 9-of-10 props. The lone miss was due to an early injury.

Hits

• Our split ticket on Thursday night came through. Davante Adams (-3.5) had nine more receptions than Trent Taylor. We went with San Francisco on the other half of our prop and Nick Mullens (+70.5) threw for only 14 yards less than Aaron Rodgers.
• Our Buffalo stack came through. Josh Allen (+20.5) threw for 405 yards, which was 25 more than Russell Wilson. Wide receiver was closer but Stefon Diggs (-5.5) had 10 more receiving yards (118) than DK Metcalf (108).
• We had D.J. Chark over 12.5 fantasy points, which he surpassed in the first minute of the game. Chark had 27.6 points total. Will Fuller (21) also went over his 15.5 fantasy point total.
• We went with unders on Tom Brady (297.5 passing yards) and Drew Brees (283.5 passing yards). Neither got close, throwing for 209 and 222 yards, respectively.

Misses

• Our only miss of the week was Justin Jackson over 13.5 fantasy points but we can chalk that up to bad luck. Jackson suffered a fluky injury on the first play of the game. We hit on the under for Darren Waller.

If there is a more snake-bitten talent in the NFL than Justin Jackson, it’s a short list. #Chargers pic.twitter.com/JGnH5PE86f

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 9, 2020

Number 5: Thursday Night Special

Jonathan Taylor under 9.5 fantasy points

A.J. Brown over 14.5 fantasy points

• Jonathan Taylor seems to have fallen to third on the depth chart for the Colts. After being on the field for 58.7% of the offensive snaps in Week 7 Taylor played just 33.8% of the snaps against the Lions in Week 8 and 30.9% against the Ravens.
• Taylor plaid five snaps in the second half last week and just six snaps in the second half the previous week.
• A.J. Brown has been fantastic since returning to the lineup in Week 5. He has scored at least one touchdown in each of his five games since Week 5.
• Brown has scored 20+ fantasy points in 4-of-5 games over that same stretch and looked fantastic doing it.

A.J. Brown continues to evolve as a receiver. The #titans are asking more of him in his second season and he's delivering. My report on @gmfb pic.twitter.com/AJ6Hg5dglt

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) November 12, 2020

• Indianapolis has one of the league’s best run defenses, allowing a league-low 83.6 rushing yards per game and a league-best 3.3 yards per carry. This is not a game where we can expect Tennessee to have success just pouring away with Derrick Henry all game.

Number 4: Carolina Stack

Teddy Bridgewater (+21.5) more passing yards than Tom Brady

Robby Anderson (-0.5) more receptions than Chris Godwin

• We love taking advantage of these positive correlation plays. If Teddy Bridgewater throws for almost as many passing’s yards as Tom Brady, then odds increase that Robby Anderson will have more catches than Chris Godwin.
• We have already seen this matchup once this season. The Buccaneers did most of their damage against the soft Panthers run defense while Brady was held to 217 passing yards.
• On the other side of the ball, Carolina did not find much success on the ground but Teddy Bridgewater completed 33-of-42 passes for 367 yards.

Highest % of throws on target:
1. Drew Brees - 84.2%
2. Teddy Bridgewater - 83.5%
3. Josh Allen - 81.4%
4. Russell Wilson - 81.1%
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 81.0%

Lowest
1. Drew Lock - 65.6%
2. Dwayne Haskins - 68.8%
3. Carson Wentz - 71.1%
4. Sam Darnold - 73.9%
5. Tom Brady - 74.1%

— ProFootballReference (@pfref) November 11, 2020

• Robby Anderson has been one of the most consistently productive receivers in the league this season. He has had only one game with fewer than five receptions and has had 8+ targets in 7-of-9 games.
• In the Week 2 matchup against Tampa Bay, Anderson had 9 receptions. Chris Godwin has a lot of competition for targets in Tampa Bay. With Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Scott Miller, and the running backs, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Tampa.

Number 3: Jaguars stack

Jake Luton (+91.5) more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers

D.J. Chark (+2.5) more receptions than Davante Adams

• We are going to take advantage of a correlation play with the Jaguars quarterback and top receiver here.
• Green Bay is a 13.5-point home favorite, so the likely game script favors the Jaguars passing game and points to the potential for a run-heavy offensive day for the Packers offense.
• Jake Luton threw for 304 yards in his NFL debut against the Houston Texans last week. He at least looked competent and capable of putting up decent passing numbers. We are getting a massive 91.5 yards in this prop against Rodgers so even 220 passing yards or so from Luton puts in a great position to win this half of the prop.
• As good as Aaron Rodgers has been this season, he is only averaging 281.6 passing yards per game.
• The Packers are likely to be without star cornerback Jaire Alexander, who is in concussion protocol. Alexander has quietly become one of the league’s truly elite shutdown cornerbacks and his likely absence will be a major challenge for the Packers.
• As Chark has returned to full health, he has started to see a true WR1 workload. Over his last three, Chark has averaged 11.0 targets per game.

Meet Jake Luton, who just served up this 73-yard BOMB to D.J. Chark! 🤯

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/k6PUlIcPW6

— Rotoworld Football (@Rotoworld_FB) November 8, 2020

Number 2: Shootout in the desert

Josh Allen over 275.5 passing yards

Kyler Murray over 261.5 passing yards

• We will take advantage of correlation here, knowing that if one of these quarterbacks has a big passing yardage day, the odds increase that the other will be forced to try to keep up.

Josh Allen vs. Kyler Murray 👀@RealMikeRob and @DeAngeloHall23 are here to preview this exciting Week 10 matchup 👇

📺: @NFLTotalAccess pic.twitter.com/XpEd8LeOTE

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) November 11, 2020

• Kyler Murray has thrown for 270+ yards in 5-of-8 games this season. On the other side, the Bills have given up 311+ passing yards in 4-of-9 games. Their overall numbers look better than they probably should due to a couple of bad weather games and a pair of games against the Jets.
• Josh Allen has thrown for 288+ yards in 6-of-9 games this season. If you take out the two bad weather games, Allen is averaging 316 passing yards per game.
• This game has a 56.5-point total and is one where no lead is going to feel comfortable, so both offenses will be forced to play aggressively for four quarters. We think there is a better than a 1-in-4 chance that this game goes over by a good amount and we end up in a major shootout.

Number 1: Stars in primetime

Dalvin Cook over 21.5 fantasy points

Allen Robinson over 15.5 fantasy points

• This is a positive correlation play because if Dalvin Cook has a huge fantasy day, the Bears are probably going to be in catch-up mode and peppering Allen Robinson with targets.
• David Montgomery is in the concussion protocol and may not be available on Monday night. The Bears do not have either the offensive line or running back talent to go with a run-heavy approach against the Vikings.
• Allen Robinson is second in the NFL in targets and has seen 9+ targets in seven games this season.
• Minnesota has been roasted by opposing WR1s of late. In Week 8, Davante Adams scored 30.3 fantasy points. In Week 7, Julio Jones had 33.7. In Week 6, DK Metcalf had 27.3. The week prior, Will Fuller had 22.8. Top wide receivers have smashed this Vikings defense.
• This is a tough matchup for Dalvin Cook but we are going to ride the hot hand here. Cook has scored a touchdown in every single game he has played this season and is averaging 1.9 scores per game.

Dalvin Cook can’t do it 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙚𝙚 weeks in a row, can he?

Oh yes. Yes he can.

Fantasy football advice for the #Vikings game in Chicago ⤵️https://t.co/HP6oU3Cs3K

— FOX Sports North (@fsnorth) November 12, 2020

• Over the past two weeks, Cook has 478 total yards and 6 touchdowns.