Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
Less than 265.5 passing yards for Tom Brady.
Less than 248.5 passing yards for Nick Foles.
We need to hit on one out of every four of these quarterback props to break even. There is a better than 1-in-4 chance tonight’s game is a lower-scoring affair where neither passing offense gets hot.
Both teams have Top 5 pass defenses. The Bears rank 5th in pass defense DVOA and are allowing just 230 passing yards per game. Somewhat quietly, the Tampa Bay defense has also been fantastic this season. The team has the second-ranked defense overall (DVOA) and is 4th-best against the pass.
Tom Brady is coming off of a big week and has gone over 265.5 passing yards in half of his games to date. However, he is expected to be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard tonight. There will not be a pass catcher in the Buccaneers offense who demands extra attention from the Bears defense.
Even with a bunch of backup pass catchers, Brady could hit the over here if this game turns into a shootout but how confident are we in the Bears offense to put up a bunch of points? Chicago’s implied team total tonight is just 20.5 points.
The Bears had just 107 passing yards in the first half last week and Nick Foles only finished with 249 in the game due to a pair of garbage time drives late.
Number 4: Going against inflated numbers
Less than 302.5 passing yards for Matt Ryan.
Less than 290.5 passing yards for Teddy Bridgewater.
These quarterback passing-yard props are the best values on the board both because of the odds and the correlation factor. We hit on a pair last week by going with the overs but we will stick with the under for our second-straight pick this week.
There is no denying these are two bad defenses and we could certainly see a shootout. However, if this game was hypothetically played 100 times, the quarterbacks would fail to hit these huge passing-yard totals more than 25 times (our break-even number).
Atlanta is likely to be without Julio Jones and this is not the same offense without his presence.
Calvin Ridley is also less than 100% while dealing with an ankle injury. He was completely shutout last week and played just 62% of the snaps.
Teddy Bridgwater has only thrown for more than 290.5 yards once this season. He has thrown for 290+ yards in 1/6th of his career games.
Number 3: Riding the hot hands
Tyler Boyd more than 5.5 receptions.
Lamar Jackson more than 60.5 rushing yards.
Tyler Boyd has had 7+ catches in three straight games. He has shown a great rapport with Joe Burrow while some of Cincinnati’s other receivers, especially A.J. Green, have struggled.
Joe Burrow on connection with Tyler Boyd: "He does a great job of just working to get open. He's always working, he's always doing something at the top of a route or if something breaks down. He’s always trying to get open in zone and man (coverage)." #Bengals
— Tyler Dragon (@TheTylerDragon) October 5, 2020
Lamar Jackson has averaged 112 rushing yards per game in three starts against the Bengals.
The Bengals are not likely to make much hay against a Baltimore defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run.
The Bengals have thrown the 2nd-most passes in the NFL to date. In a game where Baltimore has an implied team total of 32 points, the game script sets up for Burrow to have another busy day.
Lamar Jackson has gone over 60.5 rushing yards in 19/26 NFL starts (73%).
Note: We do want to keep an eye on news about Lamar Jackson’s health. He has what is reported to be a very minor knee injury but if he misses more practice time, confidence in this play would drop.
Number 2: Trending
Kareem Hunt more than 65.5 rushing yards
T.Y. Hilton less than 4.5 receptions
The Cleveland Browns offense is first in the NFL with 204.5 rushing yards per game. It has been especially hot of late, including an incredibly impressive 307 rushing yards last week.
With Nick Chubb out, Kareem Hunt should receive a heavy workload. There is some speculation this will remain a full-on committee approach due to the past split between Hunt and Chubb and the way last week’s game played out (when Hunt was banged up).
ICYMI: With Nick Chubb out for the #Browns as they prepare for the Colts, Kareem Hunt gets a chance to be the man again — a role he has excelled at before. https://t.co/7cUAnYc3lK
— Marla Ridenour (@MRidenourABJ) October 8, 2020
T.Y. Hilton has not had more than 4 receptions in a game since Week 7 of 2019.
In his prime, Hilton predictably had big games every time he faced a slow cornerback and was held in check whenever his defender could run with him. He will see a lot of Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward (4.32 speed).
Hilton turns 31-years old next month and may not have the blazing speed of his youth. At 23-years old, Denzel Ward still has every bit of his elite speed.
Number 1: Chiefs Roll
Sammy Watkins less than 65.5 receiving yards
Hunter Renfrow more than 4.5 receptions
When we look for same-game correlations, we typically are looking to go more on both players or less on both. However, in this case, the most likely game script favors the under on Watkins and the over on Renfrow.
The Chiefs are 13-point home favorites and could turn more run-heavy if opening up a big early lead. On the other side, if Oakland falls behind by a couple of scores, Jon Gruden will not be able to grind away with Josh Jacobs.
Sammy Watkins has gone over 65.5 receiving yards twice the last two seasons (Weeks 1 of the 2019 and 2020 seasons). That is just 2-of-17 games with over 65.5 receiving yards (12%) in his Chiefs career.
The Raiders have been decimated by injuries at wide receiver (Tyrell Williams, Bryan Edwards, and Henry Ruggs). Renfrow is the only healthy wide receiver who was expected to play a regular role in the offense coming into the season. Over the last two weeks, he has seen 17 targets and been the 1B option behind only Darren Waller.
The NFL—if not the #RaiderNation — will figure out Hunter Renfrow is a starter talent. pic.twitter.com/iwnNZGGXy7
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 5, 2020
Looking back at last week
Overall Season (+1.5 Units)
We had a nice +3 unit Week 4, hitting on a pair of 3x props with each coming through by a good margin:
- We had more passing yards for Joe Burrow (259.5) and Gardner Minshew (255.5). Burrow threw for 300 and Minshew threw for 351.
- We had more passing yards for Russell Wilson (298.5) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (272.5). Wilson passed for 360 and Fitzpatrick threw for 315.
Hitting 2 of 5 props lead to a big winning week but it could have been better.
- We missed on the Jets-Broncos game. It was Tim Patrick racking up the catches instead of Jerry Jeudy, though Jeudy did catch a long touchdown.
- We missed on the Baltimore-Washington game. We noted there was some value on the Dwayne Haskins under due to the possibility Haskins would get benched if he got off to a slow start but Ron Rivera waited until after the game to make the move and Haskins racked up garbage time numbers. Lamar Jackson put up modest passing numbers as predicted.
- We also missed on the San Francisco-Philadelphia game. We had the over on Nick Mullens passing yards but he unexpectedly got pulled early.
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