5 Divisive Tight Ends, and When to Draft Them

Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports

You don’t need us to tell you Travis Kelce is great. Even if we made the case Kelce is overrated (which we’re not doing), you probably wouldn’t listen to us and would happily draft him at or near his average draft position. Why? Because the vast majority of analysts in the industry see Kelce as, at worst, one of the two best tight ends and, more commonly, the No. 1 option.

In a similar vein, it’s within the range of possibilities Dawson Knox emerges as a viable fantasy option, but it’s a long shot, and everyone agrees. Whether we see him as TE25 or TE30 isn’t relevant to you on draft day. Knox will be a waiver pickup if he shows something in nearly every league.

But what about those tight ends where we don’t have a consensus view? At Footballguys, unlike many sites, we allow all of our staff to share their rankings. In fact, we encourage it. But the reality is most subscribers focus on the consensus of all of our disparate viewpoints. With someone like Kelce, where 14 of 15 rankers have him No. 1, our individual opinions don’t matter much. But what about the players you’re targeting who we see quite differently?

Those are the picks that can make or break your draft. When you’re on the clock, and someone we have ranked at No. 10 is on the board, do you reach for him a round earlier than ADP, or do you lean toward letting him fall?

With the draft season underway, here are the highest-variance tight end debates and how you should handle them.

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 11.0
• Average Draft Position: 7^th

The Details: 15 staff members rank Gronkowski 11.3, on average, in PPR formats. The highest ranking put Gronkowski 5th at the position, while the lowest ranker has him 19th -- essentially undraftable. Four staff rank him 11th, which is the median and in line with his overall consensus ranking. He has the highest standard deviation of ranking among the consensus Top 12. And he's currently being drafted 7th, on average.

The Upside Case by Phil Alexander: The fantasy football demise of Rob Gronkowski is a fallacy. History is on the side of elite tight ends in their age-31 season, and Gronkowski is the best the position has ever seen. Even if the presence of O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate limits Gronkowski to a modest 60% of the offensive snaps he can still finish with 85-90 targets, which is possible (if not likely) given his familiarity with Tom Brady. Assuming Gronkowski's targets per snap, catch rate, and yards per reception remain in line with his career norms (they did in 2018), we would be looking at about 60 catches, 800 receiving yards, and of course, 8-10 touchdowns -- numbers that approximate what Mark Andrews put up in 2019.

The Downside Case by Chris Allen: Gronkowski's target share was as high as 23% during his time with Tom Brady in New England. The targets and touchdowns were why Gronkowski was a part of the first-discussion three or four seasons ago. But, his situation (and health) has drastically changed. Instead of Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola being the primary receivers, Gronkowski is competing with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for targets. O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate couldn't top 60 targets with Bruce Arians in 2019. Brady might prefer his former teammate in the redzone, but that won't help him meet his current draft cost as his weekly target share will likely take a hit.

Conclusion: PASS ON GRONKOWSKI

The future Hall of Famer may have his moments, as the only receiver on the roster who Tom Brady knows and trusts. But we think you should pass on him unless he falls multiple rounds beyond ADP. 14 of 15 staff rank Gronkowski below his average draft position. While one staffer has him TE5, only two others see him as TE8 or higher.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 13.0
• Average Draft Position: 15^th

The Details: Hockenson has an average ranking of 12.8 in PPR formats, per 15 staff members. He ranges from TE6 for the most optimistic staffer, and bottoms out at TE20 from his biggest pessimist. His 3.88 standard deviation is as volatile as Gronkowski, only two spots lower in the rankings and just outside the Top 12. Five staff members rank him 13th, which is both the median ranking and in-line with the consensus outlook. And he's currently being drafted 15th, on average.

The Upside Case by Jason Wood: Hockenson's pedigree is unassailable. The game tape at Iowa answered every question both as a blocker, receiver, and in the open field with the ball in his hands. His university has a storied history at the position, including George Kittle, Hockenson's predecessor. Most scouts who watched them both saw Hockenson as the better player. His measurables back up what we saw on tape, as did his dynamic training camp and preseason last year. But, his 2019 regular season wasn't great. But we shouldn't have expected otherwise. Pick a great NFL tight end from your stack of Topps cards, and chances are they had a forgettable first year. It's the rite of passage at the position. Hockenson's rookie numbers were nearly identical to what all the best ever to play the game delivered. And yet that same group went on to dominate starting in their second seasons. As long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, there's no reason Hockenson should markedly improve. If he matches his comp group, you're getting a top-3 fantasy tight end at a bottom-20 cost.

The Downside Case by Andy Hicks: T.J. Hockenson had a nice season for a rookie until it ended with an ankle injury. Most of his good numbers, though, came in Week 1. After that breakout game, he only exceeded 31 yards twice and barely averaged two catches a game. By the way, his sore ankle still isn’t right nine months later. Maybe it will be fine by the start of the season, maybe it won’t. Good luck getting a straight answer before your draft.

Conclusion: TARGET HOCKENSON A ROUND EARLY

In a mirror image to Gronkowski, where the majority of us viewed him as overdrafted, Hockenson is widely viewed as a value play. 11 of 15 staffers rank Hockenson higher than his TE15 average draft position, while five have him in their top 12, and three put him solidly in the Top 8. Only two staffers rank him below his ADP, at 16th and 20th. Given a healthy Matthew Stafford and the strong historical context for elite tight ends being bad in Year 1, only to break out in Year 2, he's a volatile player that's worth reaching for before someone else does.

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 8.1
• Average Draft Position: 8^th

The Details: Henry's rankings range isn't as volatile as Gronkowski or Hockenson, but there's still a chasm between our most optimistic analyst (TE3) and our most skeptical (TE14). To put that in context, our staff sees Henry in a range from league winner (TE3 for a TE8 price) or a non-starter in 12-team leagues. On average, our staffers rank him 8.1, which is nearly identical to his average draft position in PPR leagues. Six staffers rank him 7th or better, while six rank him 9th or worse. The median ranking (8) matches ADP and the consensus.

The Upside Case by Jeff Pasquino: Hunter Henry is poised to be one of the top targets for the Chargers this year in a revamped offense and passing game. Philip Rivers is now in Indianapolis, and either Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert (possibly both) will be leading the Los Angeles passing game. Henry has 100 career catches in just two active seasons (he missed all of 2018 due to injury), averaging over 600 yards and scoring nine times total in 26 career contests. Henry must stay healthy to achieve his full value, but he easily projects as a Top 10 tight end option for 2020 and years to come once Los Angeles signs him to an extension.

The Downside Case by Dan Hindery: I believe in Henry’s talent but do not think he is likely to produce at or above his current ADP due to his situation. Philip Rivers finished third in the NFL in completions last season (390). In Tyrod Taylor’s last season as a starter (15 starts in 2016), he finished tied for 25 in completions with just 270. The Chargers coaches have talked openly of making the quarterback run a bigger part of the offense and this is not going to be the pass-heavy attack it was under Rivers. With Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Henry all fighting for targets, it is going to be difficult for Henry to get enough volume to put up big fantasy numbers.

Conclusion: HENRY IS FAIRLY VALUED

When the median and consensus average match the average draft position, it's best not to focus on the underlying volatility. If you lean toward the optimistic side, you'll have to grab him a round earlier than ADP since most analysts see TE8 as fair value, but similarly, the chances of him falling far enough where the pessimists change there mind are slim.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 12.3
• Average Draft Position: 14^th

The Details: The staff consensus of 12.3 is nearly two full spots higher than his average draft position (TE14), although the median (TE13) is closer to ADP. Five staff put the young Dolphin at TE13. The highest ranking stands at TE7 -- which would be an every-week starter, while his biggest critic sees Gesicki as waiver wire fodder in 12-team leagues (TE18). Nine of fifteen staff members rank Gesickihigher than his ADP, and seven of those see him as a top-12 option.

The Upside Case by Jeff Haseley: Looking at fantasy stats since Week 9 last season, Mike Gesicki was 8th among tight ends in PPR scoring. In this time frame, he finished with 1 point fewer than Darren Waller and 3 points fewer than Mark Andrews. In his last six games of 2019, he scored five touchdowns and scored in four of those six games. The 2020 Dolphins have stockpiled young talent and Gesicki is a big piece of their offensive game plan. He has the athleticism, talent, and opportunity to finish inside the top 10. Chan Gailey's offense has not been too kind to tight ends in the past, but it's hard to ignore Gesicki's rise at the end of last season and the continued growth and development of the Dolphins offense in 2020 and beyond.

The Downside Case by Danny Tuccitto: Gesicki is all the rage in fantasy circles right now, but his "true" stats don't come close to fitting the bill. Out of nearly 450 tight ends in the Pro Football Focus era (2006-present), Gesicki's tenure in Miami ranks 411th in True Yards per Route Run (1.26) and 420th (#Nice) in True Touchdowns per Route Run (1.00%). Perhaps with Miami's target distribution being narrowed after opt-outs, Gesicki's volume will overcome such bottom-dwelling efficiency stats, but I'm not inclined to take that kind of leap at anywhere near his current ADP.

Conclusion: AGGRESSIVELY TARGET GESICKI

Gesicki was the top vote-getter in our recent poll of top value plays at the position, for a good reason. Although the staff has a wide range of expectations for him, in part because of the uncertainty in Miami, including who's going to play quarterback, the majority of the staff rank him multiple spots higher than his average draft position. Don't be afraid to grab him a round or two ahead of your league host's ADP data; it's more than likely going to pay off.

Evan Engram, New York Giants

• Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 6.5
• Average Draft Position: 6^th

The Details: The highest-ranked tight end in the group, Engram, is coming off the board 6th, on average. His consensus ranking of 6.5 is essentially in-line with consensus, and the median (6) also matches up with ADP. The standard volatility of 2.85 is fairly high, but it's skewed toward one downside ranker (TE16), who pulls the outlook down significantly. Ten of fifteen staffers rank Engram TE6 or higher, including five who see him as a top-5 option. Only four staff rank Engram lower than his ADP, and three of those are within two spots of him (three at TE7 and one at TE8).

The Upside Case by Chad Parsons: Engram has been one of the sleeping giants of the tight end position since entering the NFL, largely due to his collection of missed games. On a per-game basis, Engram has been a top-8 producer each of his first three seasons, matched only by Jeremy Shockey dating back to the mid-1990s for a similar career start. Engram will need a string of health to post a truly dominant year, but the talent and production when he plays have not been a question to-date. Also working in Engram's favor is the lack of a prototypical No.1 receiver with the Giants where Engram could be the WR1 proxy in the offense and being priced beyond the elite tight ends in terms of fantasy draft cost.

The Downside Case by Matt Waldman: Wake me when Engram stops the downward trend of injuries that increasingly cost him more time per season. As talented as he is, Engram can only deliver as the leading option for the Giants if he can stay on the field. He'll have to prove that he can.

Conclusion: DRAFT WITH CONFIDENCE

Matt Waldman is the outlier here, and he's an astute analyst so we could look back at this in a few months and wish we heeded his call. But everyone else sees Engram solidly in the top-8 with most believing he'll be as good, or better, than the TE6 average draft position. There are questions about whether it's better to target other positions in that part of your draft, but that's a different discussion. If you think Engram is going to break out and stay healthy, his price is fair.

If you're interested in more articles by Jason Wood