Photo: Mike Dinovo, USA Today Sports

When I began playing fantasy football, I used to be all about the spreadsheets. So much so, that a data head like Davis Mattek once credited me as one of his inspirations for getting into the fantasy industry.

However, I was always drawn to the film. I've spent the past 16 years studying offensive skill players at the most granular level that you'll encounter. What I haven't done is combine my film observations with advanced performance data for your fantasy benefit.

Until now.

I'm marrying my knowledge of players with Pro Football Reference's Advanced Rushing Data to give you runners who should help you win in 2020.

The Metrics Behind the Most Promising Running Backs

Based on years of film study, the ideal backs make the best decisions (vision), can work through contact (balance and power) for positive yards, create or access creases (footwork/agility and acceleration), and actually have offensive lines that do their jobs well.

There are advanced rushing stats that often reflect these behaviors:

• Yards before Contact Average (YBC): This can be a reflection of a well-functioning offensive line and/or a runner with excellent acceleration who may also earn a lot of perimeter runs or run plays on passing downs (draws) where their quicks are helpful.
• Yards after Contact Average (YAC): Runners with a high average in this category possess some combination of contact balance, acceleration that generates momentum-based power where defenders have to grab and hold on while taken for a ride, and/or sheer size and strength to lean through contact and fall forward for significant yardage.
• Rushing Attempts per Tackles Broken (BTs/Att): Some backs break tackles with sheer power. Others have the agility to avoid direct contact and reduce the angle of the tackle or force of the blow. This stat includes both ranges of the spectrum.
• Line Dependency Percentage (Line Dep%): This is the percentage of Yards per Carry that is Yards Before Contact per Attempt (YBC/Att). While this isn't a tried-and-true metric (as few are), it often shows how dependent player was on his offensive line for yardage on a per-carry basis.

Based on this data, my film observations, and personnel changes, which running backs matter in 2020 and why?

One-Man Gangs

Based on the metrics above and how they perform on the field, these backs are less dependent on their offensive lines (45% of the time or less) than the rest of the league. If they get improved line play, it will be a bonus for their production, but you won't need it for fantasy value.

First-Round

Derrick Henry: It's true that Henry can fall forward and earn 2-4 yards. As you can see, Henry breaks a lot of tackles and his line has helped him generate a decent number of yards before contact. However, we shouldn't underestimate his initial acceleration. Henry is not only successful on perimeter runs, but he also generates the downhill momentum with interior plays to knock defenders backward in the hole far more often than he's stalemated at the point of contact.

Henry has what I call good "feet-eye coordination" for a back. He reads the line of scrimmage, spots the favorable or unfavorable leverage of his blockers as well as unblocked defenders on the periphery and adjusts to the open crease. And when he doesn't earn a clean crease, he's among the best at breaking tackles because of his size and strength and his acceleration-aided momentum. He may lose some upside on runs to sides of the field where tackle Jack Conklin was last year but it's not enough to believe he'll fall out of the fantasy RB1 picture.

Saquon Barkley: The Giants had a bad offensive line that they're trying to repair but in contrast to Cleveland, and least their scheme wasn't an obstacle to its best player (Nick Chubb) maximizing his skills. While Barkley is a slightly more explosive athlete than Chubb, he's a less patient and less mature decision-maker. It's why Barkley has slightly more upside if everything comes together but Chubb is, has been, and likely will be (this year) the more refined back.

However, most of you only care about that translating to fantasy points. In this sense, Barkley has more upside because Kareem Hunt isn't a part of the New York Giants backfield. While this point is overrated for Chubb (more below), it will likely be the difference between Barkley and Chubb as fantasy runners.

Now that the hair-splitting of two of the most talented backs in the NFL is done, note that despite having an offensive line on par or worse than Chubb in 2019, Barkley is almost as good at gaining yards, making defenders miss, and breaking tackles from a statistical point of view as the Browns' starter. Actually, only half as good as Chubb as a tackle breaker. Still, that's enough to feel safe about Barkley as a producer, albeit potentially the most boom-bust week-to-week option of the top fantasy backs based on past history.

Nick Chubb: Kareem Hunt is not splitting carries with Chubb. Kevin Stefanski noted this week that he is using the Kubiak playbook. Unless Chubb has to play with an injury, expect Chubb to earn more than enough volume as a runner and receiver for RB1 fantasy value. Hunt is an RB3 at best with a healthy Chubb in the backfield.

If you use Hunt's past work as the basis of your argument for more work, then you're missing the most salient point. Chubb is a better running back. The opposition knows it, his teammates know it, and the coaches know it. The only people who don't are fans and writers who haven't broken down how patient, creative, powerful, agile, and fast Chubb is. And, they certainly haven't been paying attention to his pass-catching skills.

Hunt is capable of elite production, but Kubiak's system has a history of using one back enough to generate strong fantasy production. Hunt's talent will be enough for him to earn borderline fantasy production with the carries slated for him, but this scheme that relies on a fullback and/or H-Backs as lead blockers will not implement both backs in the backfield on a statistically significant level. The Browns' scheme last year was awful and it's being changed wholesale, basing any projections of Hunt's volume on last year's data is meaningless.

Of this group, Chubb was among the best at yards before and after contact despite struggling performances from Cleveland's tackles that have since been upgraded. The thing about Chubb's tackle-breaking that separates him from Barkley, is that while he's as strong or stronger than any back in the league (including Barkley and Henry), he runs with greater efficiency of movement because he processes information faster and more accurately. As a result, he's less prone to attempting off-balanced solutions that appear spectacular in a vacuum but are less successful.

I hope you've listened to me for the umpteenth time about Chubb being one of the elite backs in football because you're about to see it unfold.

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs, like Chubb, performed well despite gaps in surrounding talent on the offense. He has excellent vision, strong contact balance, and the all-around game to succeed as a fantasy RB1.

One of the most complete football players at his position, #Bama RB Josh Jacob demonstrates excellent tracking and feel on this seam route. pic.twitter.com/Hm0tElHHii

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 5, 2019

Jacobs has 60 catches as a goal and it's not a mark that he created out of thin air. It often takes a year for a back to acclimate to the blocking assignments that's demanded of them before getting rewarded with targets. The idea that Lynn Bowden Jr, Jr. is a bigger threat to take Jacobs off the field than Jacobs earning 60 catches is laughable.

Joe Mixon: Joe Mixon creates enough behind an awful offensive line that any improvement with the surrounding talent should result in fantasy RB1 production. Even if the unit remains bad and Joe Burrow looks more like a rookie and less like the immediate savior some are projecting him to be, Mixon should still deliver RB2 numbers even if game scripts aren't optimal for him.

Mixon breaks a lot of tackles because, like Chubb and Barkley, he has excellent agility and strength and his decision-making is on a continuum between Chubb and Barkley. It makes Mixon a more efficient runner than Barkley but not as refined as Chubb.

Joe Mixon deep press and takes bounce out in stages for 31. pic.twitter.com/UjqGDuXl2k

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2018

Joe Mixon’s Acceleration pic.twitter.com/1UlUGeZrVQ

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 28, 2018

Mixon is an elite back with promising surrounding skill talent but a bad line. A good year (high-end RB2) is a reasonable expectation.

Second Round

Austin Ekeler: The Chargers' starting halfback has the greatest expanse between fantasy ceiling and floor of the running backs who are least dependent on offensive line play. The Chargers see Joshua Kelley as a potential successor to the Melvin Gordon role in the offense, which means that they don't view Ekeler as a true feature back despite extending his time in Los Angeles.

The downside with Kelley earning that role ranges from Ekeler dropping to fantasy RB2 or even mid-RB3 production. The best-case scenario is that Ekeler and Kelley are co-RB2s or maybe one earns low-end RB1 value in PPR leagues based on touchdowns (Kelley) or receiving volume (Ekeler). This best-case will be dependent on the production of the passing game overall and it's not a great bet this year with its quarterback position undergoing a massive transition.

While the idea that Ekeler could maximize his ceiling as a check-down option and runner due to the inexperience of Kelley and Justin Herbert when he eventually takes over for bridge-quarterback Tyrod Taylor, it presupposes that Kelley will be relatively useless as an inside runner. It's more believable that the Chargers signed Ekeler to a deal to keep him as a hybrid weapon who can do a little bit of everything at a high level but not pound him into the line of scrimmage 10-15 times a week.

As you can see, Ekeler breaks more tackles per attempt than all but the best on this list but much of that happens in the open field after the catch. While I bet Ekeler could have one incredible season as a feature back, I'm skeptical it's the plan and it could damage the long-term value of Ekeler as an investment they'd like to maximize over the course of multiple seasons.

He's a safe second-round pick, but unlikely the hidden RB1 gem you're hoping he is.

Third Round

James Conner: I've outlined this summer that in some circumstances based on team builds at the 1-2 turn at the end of the draft order or the 2-3 turn at the top, I'd consider Conner. Even during an injury-riddled 2019 season for Conner, his quarterback, and his top receiver, Conner's efficiencies still belonged in this category.

Conner is often linked to the Steelers' excellent offensive line but he's a better back than characterized just looking at his sample without a quality passer and experienced receiving corps and opponents making him the priority target to stop in this offense. In 2018, Conner averaged a broken tackle at an excellent ratio of 1 every 10.8 attempts.

Conner's 2018 Line Dependency Metric was 46.7 percent—a reflection of a more synergistic balance between line and player. This is great news because fantasy players should crave a back who could veer into One-Man Gang territory without a full complement of supporting starters to stabilize the scheme, but will have that synergistic balance to make his life easier.

He's the best value among the top 30 backs by Average Draft Position.

Leonard Fournette: The Jaguar gets a bad rap in fantasy this year. It's understandable. Fantasy experts look at his injury history, his yards-per-carry, his depth of targets in the receiving game last year (around 5 yards), and conclude he's an overrated bum.

Then they throw in the news that the Jaguars unsuccessfully shopped Fournette and the speedy Ryquell Armstead showed enough that he's a legitimate threat to overtake Fournette's starting role. Armstead showed something, but it wasn't that. Unless you just look at the box score and think open-field opportunities are the sum of a running back, there's a greater risk that you're unintentionally being more provocative than substantive.

And why are we even using the trade attempt as an argument against Fournette? Would you trade for any back and assume his contract and then know you have to renegotiate at likely a higher price the next year when you might get him a year later at a lower price?

Fournette's situation is complicated and that's enough to say "no thanks" to him as a third or even fourth-round option. He's suited most for a gap scheme and because of that, a poor-performing line is a greater source for feast-famine production for a running back with only one viable option on most attempts.

Good adjustment by Jags line and Leonard Fournette goes for 81 pic.twitter.com/cpVRp6AAfu

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2019

Fournette for 26 and 210 yards thus far pic.twitter.com/XoAelUWVeA

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2019

Fournette's injuries and the potential for chronic ankle problems are well-known and it leads people to take one of three stances: 1) Fournette is a ticking time bomb and you prefer to avoid explosives. 2) Fournette's difficulty with health will always be an issue. 3) Fournette addressed what he could with his health and the fact he started a full season for the first time in three years is enough to regain optimism for him in 2020.

None of us know which stance is correct. However, because I am providing analysis, let's tout his merits.

Despite playing in mostly a gap scheme with a banged-up and underperforming offensive line, Fournette stayed healthy for 15 games and average more yards after contact per rushing attempt than all but Henry (tied for second with Chubb). He was also less dependent on his line than any back on this One-Man Gang List.

He was the One-Man Gang.

And, shouldn't we consider that Fournette's low depth of target was by design and as a result of handling check-downs from a quarterback under consistent pressure? Does it really matter if he earned 100 targets and 76 catches? How many backs earned at least 76 fantasy points worth of catches in PPR leagues last year other than Fournette? Five.

Five. But what about Chris Thompson? Clearly, Thompson is a threat if he stays healthy. That's happened once in a seven-year career (2016). I'm not sure how you can argue that Fournette can't stay healthy and then argue that Thompson will eliminate Fournette in the receiving game despite Thompson having a greater history of durability problems.

That said, Thompson has averaged 54 targets and 12 games played per year since 2016. Still, if you cut Fournette's 2019 targets in half and have an improved offense thanks to a more prepared quarterback and healthier offensive line, Fournette's production will likely remain at 260+ carries, 950-1,100 rushing yards, 45 targets, 35 catches, and 250-350 receiving yards.

That's roughly what he's done in 2017 and 2019. A more experienced quarterback should translate to more efficient red-zone production. Fournette's three rushing touchdowns were likely the low-water mark during what should be at least 1-2 more years of starts as a lead back. While expecting 7-9 might be too optimistic, 5-6 is reasonable and still keeps him whole at his draft-day value.

Sometimes, we get so geared towards upside as the king concept in fantasy football that we go overboard. I've touted upside as long as anyone but it’s perfectly ok to be veer towards high floors with talents in the first five rounds. Fournette's 2019 season was a "floor" point for his offensive line, quarterback, and red-zone performances and he was still worthwhile.

I'd keep that in consideration before you add him to your personal no-fly list.

Chris Carson: I've seen reports, even on this very site, that make it seem like a Seahawk-driven priority to replace Carson and lump him in with Rashaad Penny as if the Seahawks have one massive injury problem at running back. Carson has started 29 of the past 32 games, averaging over 270 touches, over 1,300 yards from scrimmage, and 9 touchdowns during that span.

He was an elite tackle-breaker last year and there isn't a player on the depth chart who can threaten his standing as the lead back when healthy. Add to the dynamic that Russell Wilson forces opposing defenses to defend all 11 offensive players, and Carson is a rock-solid third-round pick in the fantasy that range between fantasy RB1-RB2.

Rounds 4-6

Ronald Jones II: Did you notice that Jones broke more tackles per attempt than any back with a low Line Dependency Percentage? Jones' combination of straight-line burst, added power, and improved decision-making showed up in a big way for the Buccaneers. Adding Tom Brady to this equation only makes Jones' life easier.

Jones' work on his receiving chops has been on display during camp and it wasn't as if he was a bad passing-game option before Brady has spent this summer sharing fine points. This will only add to Jones' game this year.

He's the bargain that we'll be hearing many fantasy analysts in 2011 will say "no one could really have known about."

Contributor Depth with Starter Value

Adrian Peterson: Derrius Guice is gone but Peterson's value only jumped five spots since? That's a lot of faith in Antonio Gibson and Bryce Love, because I know from experience that the fantasy community isn't singing Peyton Barber's praises.

Too bad, because Peyton Barber will probably be more productive than either of these youngsters if given the chance. Still, the refusal to believe in Peterson is because he's old. However, in this case, old is not synonymous with bad.

Peterson still has the acceleration, change of direction, vision, and strength to carry the load in Washington. While not completely out of the realm of possibility, it's unlikely that he'll earn more than 270 carries. A total of 220-240 seems more likely his absolute ceiling, but that's enough to place him in that RB2-RB3 range with mid-range RB2 production inside the top-20 as the high end.

When you can get him after the 10th round, that's astute drafting.

Metrics Require More Context

McCaffrey and Breida don't fit the metrics as intended and why should I even try to force-feed data that's purpose is to reflect what's happening on the field? McCaffrey doesn't have a great offensive line but if you look at his Yards Before Contact Per Attempt and Line Dependency Percentages the way I tried to define them, you'd presume he does.

If you consider McCaffrey's style of play that leverages his vision, superior short-area quickness, change of direction, and acceleration then it’s easy to correlate these two metrics with his elite ability to make more out of his line's efforts than most backs are capable. The earlier link to the Chubb video analysis with the Scouting Academy highlights ways Chubb made his line better than it was.

McCaffrey may not be defined at a One-Man Gang with the methodology, but he's absolutely in that category as a runner.

If Breida could stay healthy, he's flashed similar skills. He's a sudden athlete with excellent vision and underrated contact balance. While it's easy to presume Breida was benefitting more from his offensive line than his own skills—like many of the backs on the 49ers depth chart—based on what I've watched, this is not the case.

Matt Breida in line for more work. Breida is an explosive back, with excellent vision and outstanding feel for capitalizing on his blockers’ leverage. Here I compare runs by him and Marlon Mack, a similar runner to Tevin Coleman. pic.twitter.com/lSO53dL1oP

— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) August 28, 2019

If Breida can stay healthy, he and Jordan Howard can become a potent combo in Miami and Breida's yards from scrimmage could make him a strong flex-option with RB2 upside. He might even deliver RB1-RB2 value for the weeks he's healthy.

While I'd prefer the receivers in this range of the draft, Breida offers playable depth if you went heavy on receivers early and now need backs.

Synergistic Situations: Back And Line Working Together

The runners below have a reasonably even split between yards before contact and yards after contact. It's unfair to say they are a product of their offensive line play but their surrounding talent has enhanced their production more than the One-Man Gangs above.

The Class of the Group:

Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook are safe first-round picks and there should be no hesitation about selecting them as one of the top-five players in fantasy drafts. Kamara's rate of broken tackles is in line with my thinking that his contact balance is borderline mystical. I would bet he could be a One-Man Gang type of back if called upon.

Thoughts on Alvin Kamara’s balance. pic.twitter.com/kf7zDPT9Nl

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 10, 2019

The same is true with Elliott. He's had the luxury not to be tested in this way because of the Cowboys' offensive line but if you know enough about running back play then the idea that Elliot is an overrated talent is preposterous. Among the best at using the smallest movements to maximize his agility, vision, and balance and transform potential negative outcomes into positive plays, Elliott benefits from good blocking but also bleeds the most from his skills.

Cook has elite curvilinear movement, which enhances his skill to make defenders miss and earn yards after contact because he's often changing angles of contact while his feet are on the ground and moving at a fast rate of speed. Cook, Elliott, and Kamara are in balanced offensive attacks that often lean more towards the run. I don't think you need to tell you it's safe to take this trio.

Good While They Last

Mark Ingram was the lead back for the most dominant run offense in the NFL last year. This year, the Ravens should remain an excellent run team despite the loss of Marshal Yanda but how long will Ingram hang onto his role with J.K. Dobbins as the team's second-round pick and the team considered the best back in the draft?

It would be nice to have one and only one back of maximized value for the best rushing offense in the league, Ingram's career is ending and the better play is to nab Dobbins later. If you get lucky, and Ingram remains the featured back due to an unfortunate injury to Dobbins, but you don't want to invest that much in luck.

Aaron Jones is a more angst-ridden case. His rate of tackles broken per attempt is beyond impressive and it's a testament to his vision and quickness. He has that slippery power that Clinton Portis and Jamaal Charles had. However, it doesn't appear that the Packers see Jones as the long-term future and his injury history might have been enough for them to draft A.J. Dillon, who has been a durable workhorse at Boston College.

With Jones, you're also hoping for time to slow down and change to stop. Hate to tell you, but that's not how the world usually works.

Good, But How Good?

Miles Sanders' game took off after the Eagles stop forcing him to run zone plays and gave him a steady diet of gap blocking. Sanders' Line Dependency Metric is on the cusp of being more line dependent than synergistic, which is an important thing to keep in mind. There's nothing wrong with him as an athlete, but he must show improvement this year with making the most of what his teammates provide and as well as making accurate reads that can help him win in situations where his line can't do as much for him.

Where Miles Sanders could be wiser as a decision maker. pic.twitter.com/JRK81wsqsH

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 16, 2019

Betting on Sanders as an RB1 may pay off but he's a better selection if your plan is to make him an RB2. You can win with Sanders in fantasy leagues this year if you pair him with a one of the first-round options from this article or backs with strong RB2 value and RB1 upside like James Conner, Chris Carson, or possibly Ronald Jones II.

Devin Singletary is the short, light, slow, and not tremendously quick back with superior vision and footwork to play bigger and quicker than his workouts suggest. He's also behind an excellent run-blocking offensive line. His 2.7 yards before contact is higher than all the backs mentioned thus far with the exception of McCaffrey and Breida.

If the o-line/Rb play is a marriage, then the OL’s work on this counter play has Devin Singletary at home with no kids, a maid, and a fat allowance. pic.twitter.com/oeLSU08cik

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 16, 2019

The difference is that McCaffrey and Breida had to disguise their intentions and/or manipulate opponents behind the line of scrimmage with greater frequency than Singletary.

It's no surprise, that like Sanders, Singletary's Line Dependency Metric is on the cusp of the line-dependent category. This might be why the Bills like Singletary but liked the idea more of pairing him with a contact-productive runner like Zack Moss.

As is the case with Sanders, Singletary should deliver RB2 production but it's already a given that there will be a second back figuring prominently in the equation to limit Singletary's fantasy upside. While Boston Scott might perform well enough to push for more playing time in the slated Darren Sproles role with Sanders, it probably won't go beyond a complementary role. Moss could flip-flip roles with Singletary.

Both backs can help you, but there are backs in their range or later during fantasy drafts who could help you more.

Reserves with Starter Skills

Bo Scarbrough will be the third back on the Detroit Lions' depth chart (at best) this year, but he produced at a synergistic level with his offensive line. Despite the fact that his style and build is ideal for a downhill ground game with a quarterback under center Scarbrough played well from pistol and shotgun. He's worth monitoring on the waiver wire or adding late in your drafts if you have a COVID-adjusted league that makes betting on third-stringers worth your while.

Carlos Hyde and the Seahawks are an excellent fit. Hyde's style and talent bear a lot of similarities with Carson. He'll probably sub for Carson every 2-3 series. If forced into extended action, you saw what Hyde did last year in a shotgun and pistol offense. The metrics show he's still an above-average tackle breaker who can be more independent of his line if necessary.

You may be tempted by the flashy idea of taking rookie DeeJay Dallas but Hyde is the smart pick and a nice value when viewing him as a proven player who can deliver at least RB2 production in this offense if Carson is gone for an extended period.

Line Dependent

These backs earned more of their yardage before contact than after contact. There's a worthwhile argument that Todd Gurley and Phillip Lindsay belong in the Metrics Need Context Category, but ultimately, I had enough doubts to keep them here. These backs can help you, but if the line play is suffering, they will suffer more than more talented backs.

Marlon Mack is a player that I've been saying for two years is a product of good blocking. Not as much as Tevin Coleman, but absolutely a player in the category of "gets what's blocked for him and occasionally a little more."

Although he hasn't played a single NFL game, Jonathan Taylor's tape screams "One-Man Gang" category. The fact that the coaching staff has already determined this will be a hot-hand situation is an indication that as long as Taylor doesn't screw this up, he'll be starting by midseason. Mack will only meet or exceed his value if Taylor gets hurt.

There's a valid argument that Todd Gurley qualified as Line Dependent because the Rams offensive line lacked cohesion and experience and most importantly, Sean McVay was so stubborn about keeping the outside zone scheme that he didn't adjust after the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears foiled it in 2018 (the All-Pro coaching move), or after Bill Belichick schooled him in the Super Bowl (the good coaching move), but well into the season after opponents played an uncommonly used alignment to specifically stop the Rams run game week after week.

As much as I'd like to completely blame McVay for not adjusting, Gurley is missing a little something extra from his game that made him an All-Pro talent before that 2018 injury against the Chiefs. The Falcons have a better offensive line that gelled nicely at certain points during games down the stretch of 2019. If Caleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom can build on their rookie efforts, Gurley could deliver another top-15 season as a high-end fantasy RB2.

The fact that Gurley still has an excellent rate of tackles broken should be encouraging. In his physical prime, he was powerful back with tremendous speed, burst, and explosion from his cuts. He's still powerful and quick enough to deliver starter value, but the upside is dependent on touchdown volume and his line play.

Phillip Lindsay shows flashes of being less line dependent than his metric indicates. He makes some advanced choices as a decision-maker and he's a rugged player for his size. His tackle-breaking efficiency is awesome, and while some of it surprisingly happens in traffic, a lot of it is thanks to momentum-generated runs in enough space that he's running a ton of reaches for his frame rather than wrap-ups and hits.

Denver's offensive line has some issues and with Melvin Gordon in the lead position, Lindsay has a similar ADP as Breida and should be regarded as a solid pick if you've already loaded up on receivers earlier.

Latavius Murray never lived up to the hype, but it doesn't make him a bad NFL contributor. He's a big, tackle-breaking runner with speed who can win downhill behind the Saints' excellent offensive line. If called into extended action, Murray can benefit from the passing game that carries this offense and gash opponents who overplay the aerial game. If Murray was a Carolina Panther, he wouldn't make this list but the luxury of his surrounding talent brings out the best of him for fantasy players when called upon.

LeSean McCoy dealt with a fair bit of injury. At the height of his career, he was much more of a synergistic back with the capability of being a One-Man Gang. At this point in his career, he's been praised as a draw-play and space option. He's still more than that in terms of what he can do on a play-to-play basis. The bigger question is if he can do the work play-after-play.

If needed, I think he can for fantasy players but the Buccaneers don't want it to work out this way because of fears that if McCoy physically breaks down, he won't be able to remain mentally and conceptually as sharp on the field. McCoy has fantasy potential as flex and bye-week value.

Tevin Coleman has become a competent back with good speed and receiving skills. He isn't as good between the tackles as Raheem Mostert and his line dependency is by far the highest of the backs in this article with the exception of McCaffrey and his former teammate Breida.

Why isn't Coleman an exception? Brieda and McCaffrey know how to use their pads and head to win through contact. They also have much better eye-feet coordination. And in addition to Coleman's high Line Dependency Metric, Coleman's rate of attempts per broken tackle is about once every two games for the rate of touches he earns. That's incredibly low and a reflection of what I've seen of his poor finishing technique as a runner since he was at Indiana.

Hopefully, this analysis gives you an idea of who are safe picks and why as well as whose fantasy value has a higher floor because they're less dependent on their line play.