Welcome to Week 10 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate emergency starters and stretch-run candidates at quarterback, running backs returning from injury, and the unlikeliest fantasy scenarios that have played out thus far in 2020 and how long they will continue.
- Emergency Quarterbacks
- Stretch-Run Quarterbacks
- Running Backs Making Their Return
- Craziest Positive Seasons So Far
Let's roll...
Emergency Quarterbacks
Matt Waldman: From the list below, A) Tell us which QB is the best bet this week for the desperate fantasy GM. B) Tell us which QB you'd pick up as a multiple-week option. C) Which quarterback you'd least like to have.
Only the finest selections at Che' NFL...
Jeff Pasquino: This week, Dallas and the Giants are off, so we are down to three picks - Mullens (SF vs. NO), Luton (JAX at GB), or Alex Smith (WASH at DET). Green Bay has only given up three passing TDs and 300 yards once each this year, so scratch Luton. The Saints did give up 15 passing scores in their first five contests, but after their Week 6 bye they have really stepped it up, allowing only four in three games and no 300-yard performances all year. Given that I don't like how San Fran's offense looks right now, I started leaning towards Washington. Alex Smith has the most experience here and Detroit's defense gave up three touchdowns each to Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins the past two weeks. Of all three options, give me Alex Smith.
I also lean towards Alex Smith here as the multi-week option. The schedule is favorable (at Detroit, Cincinnati, at Dallas on Thanksgiving) and he has a strong WR1 in Terry McLaurin. Luton would be my second choice but the schedule (at Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland) looks horrific for the next three weeks.
As for the least attractive option, chasing Joe Flacco's big games has proven to a Fool's Errand throughout his career. He has thrown for three or more touchdowns in 19 starts in his 13-year career, but never two in a row. Couple that with him being a Jet and that they will get Sam Darnold is likely back in the saddle after New York's Week 10 bye and I want no part of Flacco. Garrett Gilbert would be next for me as I expect Andy Dalton to take over sooner rather than later, as Gilbert looked completely overmatched against Pittsburgh.
Jason Wood: The best bet for a must-win Week 10 is Alex Smith, almost by default since Flacco and Gilbert are on byes. Mullens has already been benched for C.J. Beathard this year, and I have no confidence in him against a reinvigorated Saints unit. Jake Luton is viable but the Packers are heavy favorites and the game script could get away from what Jacksonville does best -- run the ball with James Robinson. Smith threw three interceptions last week against the Giants, which is a harrowing precursor to this week's game against Detroit. But Smith is a proven veteran and will have the week to fully prepare as the starter, both mentally and physically.
It's a motley bunch to be sure, the only one guaranteed multiple starts: Alex Smith. Flacco has been subbing for Sam Darnold, who is due back this week or Week 11 at the latest. Nick Mullens, as I already mentioned, is no more likely to play a lot than Beathard. Garrett Gilbert is the Cowboys fourth-stringer and will sit when either Andy Dalton or Ben DiNucci is ready to roll. That leaves rookie Jake Luton or grizzled veteran Smith. Smith gets Detroit, Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Seattle in the next six weeks; only the Steelers are problematic. Luton gets Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Baltimore. That's only three enticing matchups.
Garrett Gilbert is a fourth-stringer and needs both Ben DiNucci and Andy Dalton to stay in the trainer's room. With Dallas' offensive line in shambles and Gilbert being the ultimate definition of a street free agent, he's the easy choice.
Mark Schofield: For this week, the best option of the available quarterbacks is Alex Smith. With the other choices being Jake Luton against the Green Bay Packers, and Nick Mullens against the New Orleans Saints, Smith is the decision because he gets to go up against a Detroit Lions defense that has struggled in recent weeks. Matt Patricia had a two-game stretch where he played more zone coverage in the secondary, and the Lions defense was better, but he has played more man coverage in the past few weeks, and they were bad again. So either he sticks with man coverage - where they're bad as a defense - or plays more zone, which a veteran quarterback like Smith can operate well against.
As a multiple-week starter, I'll admit to being impressed by Jake Luton. He threw the ball well against a bad Houston defense, and the Jaguars are in roster-evaluation mode. It seems like he'll get a chance down the stretch here to show what he can do, D.J. Chark is a viable threat for him to target in the passing game, and I liked what I saw.
The option that scares me the most is Joe Flacco. Sure, he looked good against New England, but the New York Jets are in full-on tank mode and I would not be surprised to hear that they're turning to James Morgan in a week or two.
Maurile Tremblay: I like Jake Luton this week. He played last week as he belongs in the NFL, and while his matchup against the Packers this week will be difficult for him to win, it may not be difficult for him to rack up some garbage-time stats. The game script should favor a pass-heavy offense, and the Luton-Chark connection could result in decent fantasy production.
Luton is a risky play, though. If I want someone more reliable for a multiple-week option, I'm turning to Alex Smith. With Kyle Allen out for the year, Dwayne Haskins may not be completely written off just yet, but Alex Smith gives the team its best chance to win right now. By rule, the NFC East must send a team to the playoffs, and Washington is still in the thick of that race. Despite his two late-game interceptions last week, Alex Smith is a capable NFL quarterback who should put up decent fantasy numbers more reliably than the others on this list.
I want no part of Joe Flacco on my fantasy teams. He probably won't get another start this season, assuming Sam Darnold is ready to play after this week's bye. But even if Flacco does get a few more starts, the Jets' offense won't regularly support strong fantasy numbers. Almost everything I just said about Joe Flacco applies to Garrett Gilbert as well, except that Gilbert could end up playing his way into additional starts even when Andy Dalton is healthy. That's less likely with Flacco when Darnold is healthy.
Sean Settle: It is going to be a tough week if you are relying on any of these guys.
Waldman: Some people play in tough leagues, Sean.
Settle: Ha! True, and in that case, Alex Smith may be your best bet to points this week against the Lions. Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah will be tasked with covering Terry McLaurin on the outside and both rank near the bottom of fantasy points allowed per snap. Smith also has great options to check down the ball to and could easily see 250 yards passing and 2 touchdowns this week. Jake Luton looked great last week, but Smith has the matchup and experience to put up points this week.
As a multi-week option, I would still go with Smith. The Cowboys are a mess right now and we have no idea who their starter is going to be week to week, Joe Flacco should be replaced by Sam Darnold again when he comes back, Nick Mullens has played so poorly in the past that he was benched for C.J Beathard, and Jake Luton is playing on a bad team that is undecided what they want to do at quarterback. Smith is a safe bet to finish the season as a starter and has a good complement of weapons to compete with each week in a very bad division.
Garrett Gilbert is the quarterback I would want to avoid as his job comes with the biggest question mark. Andy Dalton still gives this team the best chance to win and was recently renamed the starter. Gilbert could get a chance again if things continue to fall apart, but since he is not currently the starter I would not want him going forward.
Will Grant: This is an ugly option this week if you are without a quarterback. Flacco and Gilbert are both off as well, so your choices are 3 quarterbacks on the road where they are expected to lose. I'd probably say Alex Smith makes the best 'in case of emergency, break glass' option this week. This week Washington faces the Lions who are pretty terrible in their own right. Both Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers hit them up for three passing touchdowns in their last two games, giving Smith the biggest upside. I also like the fact that Washington is still in the playoff hunt in the terrible NFC East, meaning Washington will be hungry to pick up an 'easy win' on the road to keep pace with the Eagles.
My answer to the multiple-week option would be the same for the near-term as well. Smith is in no danger of losing his starting job, and Washington's next three games are against Detroit, Cincinnati, and Dallas. He also has a soft fantasy playoff schedule when Washington faces Seattle in week 15 (2,897 passing yards allowed—32nd) and Carolina in week 16 (2,227 passing yards allowed—6th).
Garrett Gilbert has a lot of talent around him - but the Dallas offensive line is essentially air. At any moment, opposing defenses can load up the box and Gilbert will be running for his life. Add in the fact that Dallas gets down early, making them one-dimensional, and whoever is under center has a very limited chance of success. Andy Dalton will probably be back under center after the bye week anyway as he should be recovered by Covid by then.
Jeff Haseley: I also agree with the consensus that Alex Smith is the best play of the bunch this week. Detroit has allowed a multiple-touchdown game to a quarterback in five of their eight games this year. Smith has the experience to be productive against the Lions.
I'm leaning Garrett Gilbert here with an honorable mention to Jake Luton. Gilbert looked poised against the Steelers, making the right reads and decisions which has been a challenge for any quarterback against the Steelers. We know Gilbert has NFL pedigree in his blood—his father went to five consecutive Super Bowls.
He showed he can be productive in the AAF and now he's showing that he can be competitive in the NFL. I think Dallas will lean on him (over Andy Dalton) if he continues to lead the team. Sometimes a moral victory can get you another week as the starter and we're seeing that with Gilbert and the Cowboys. Dallas also has an easier schedule than the other quarterbacks in this group. Plus the NFC East is still wide open for the taking. GIlbert is my pick here.
I'd say Joe Flacco is the least attractive option. Sam Darnold is the future, not Flacco. While Flacco showed up well vs. the Patriots on Monday Night Football, I don't see him keeping the job when Darnold is healthy. If we're talking about multi-week availability, Flacco doesn't have much of a leg to stand on when Darnold returns.
Waldman: NFL pedigree in his blood? So, should we be lobbying for Tom Brady's dad to give the NFL DNA?
Haseley: You know what I mean.
Waldman: Yeah, I do, you didn't mean anything.
Haseley: It sounded good.
Waldman: It did.
Quarterback Candidates for the Stretch Run
Waldman: From a fantasy perspective between weeks 10-16 A) Which quarterback will have the best stretch-run? B) Which will have the worst?
- CAR - TB, DET, @MIN, BYE, DEN, @GB, @WAS
- BAL - @NE, TEN, @PIT, DAL, @CLE, JAC, NYG
- CIN - @PIT, @WAS, NYG, @MIA, DAL, PIT, @HOU
- NO - SF, ATL, @DEN, @ATL, @PHI, KC, MIN
Pasquino: Again I tend to look at schedules and matchups. Bridgewater has three strikes against him—a matchup with Tampa Bay in Week 10, at Green Bay in Week 15, and a Week 13 bye. Scratch him off.
The other three are all very viable. Lamar Jackson would be my pick if I am in a good position to get my fantasy team to get to the playoffs as the playoff schedule (Jacksonville in Week 15, Giants in Week 16) looks great. Joe Burrow would be my opposite pick as he has a strong Week 11-14 run (at Wash, Giants, at Miami, Dallas) after a tough Pittsburgh game in Week 10. His playoff schedule is rather poor though (Pittsburgh, at Houston).
The best overall pick is Drew Brees. I don't see a game where he would not be in a good spot, and with two games against Atlanta, a weakened San Francisco, and trips to Denver and Philly before the final two games (home against KC and MIN), any and all of these games could be high scoring and be 300-yards and/or 3+ touchdowns for Brees. The Saints are really starting to look strong and Brees is spreading the ball around well, connecting with 12 different players last week against Tampa Bay. Give me the savvy future Hall of Famer down the stretch.
Wood: On paper, Burrow has the easiest remaining schedule. We've seen enough from the rookie to believe he'll be a viable fantasy option with a soft set of opponents; the volume will be there at a minimum. But the strength of schedule isn't a perfect predictor and that's why I have to go with Lamar Jackson. While Jackson's season hasn't gone to script, he's the reigning MVP and we know that he's capable of more. Through Week 9, the four quarterbacks are separated by just six fantasy points, with Bridgewater (QB10) atop with 189 points and Brees (QB14) bringing up the rear with 183 points. In a four-man dead heat at the 3/4s turn, give me Lamar Jackson every time.
Teddy Bridgewater is my choice for least valuable down the stretch, even though I think he'll be viable in 12-team leagues. You could do (much) worse but of this quartet, he has by far the hardest schedule remaining.
Schofield: Things are set up nicely for Drew Brees to have a solid stretch run. He'll face the San Francisco 49ers this weekend, and if you saw their game last Thursday night against the Green Bay Packers, you know that veteran quarterbacks are finding ways to have success against whatever coverage Robert Saleh is putting on the field. He also gets the Broncos, the Falcons twice, and the Eagles. With Michael Thomas back in the fold, Brees is set up for a great stretch drive.
While he has played really well for a rookie, the remaining schedule is not favorable for Joe Burrow. He'll have to deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers defense twice, first in Week 10 and again in Week 15. That defense has caused a lot of hardship and pain for younger quarterbacks recently, and I would expect Burrow to struggle in those games.
He'll also face three defenses that are quietly a lot better than people are giving them credit for including Washington in Week 11, the Giants in Week 12, and the Dolphins in Week 13. Only that Dallas game in Week 14 looks favorable for him during the stretch run, and perhaps the Houston game in Week 16.
Settle: It may seem like he has not been his dominant self, but Lamar Jackson still has the best stretch run potential from this list. With matchups against Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville on tap he could easily make a late MVP push against these defenses. The only real concern is if the Ravens try to rest them when they are comfortably up by multiple touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Jackson has the easiest remaining schedule of these quarterbacks by far.
Teddy Bridgewater is a great story and an even better person, but he is not the quarterback I would want for a stretch run. Despite being out this week, Christian McCaffery should be back for Carolina and take the bulk of the offense. Bridgewater will be quarterbacking a team with very little to play for and no reason to risk injury. When looking at your stretch run, you want a quarterback with something to play for and there is not a lot of that in Carolina.
Waldman: Last year's No.4 fantasy quarterback between weeks 10-17, Ryan Fitzpatrick would beg to differ. So would No.8 option Mitchell Trubisky, No.9 option Sam Darnold, and No.10 option Baker Mayfield. The same is true in 2018 with Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Jameis Winston.
Settle: Perhaps.
Tremblay: I like Lamar Jackson for the best stretch run, and I don't think it's a close call. Jackson has a fantasy potential that approaches Patrick Mahomes II territory. The others on the list do not. Jackson's big-play ability and talent as a runner led him to be drafted significantly higher than Brees, Bridgewater, or Burrow in this season's fantasy drafts, and the reasons for that loftier evaluation still apply.
I'm least confident in Joe Burrow. He's been fantastic this season, but it seems, anecdotally, that rookies generally have a greater likelihood of fading down the stretch than veterans do. (I'd much prefer a rigorous examination of past data to anecdotes, but I'm unaware of any analyses on this issue.) The Bengals have been attempting significantly more passes per game than average, which may regress toward the league norm over the second half of the season, and opposing teams have more film on Burrow now. I'm not down on Burrow at all as a player, but I think he has a lower floor than the others on the list..
Grant: Given their upcoming schedule, I think Lamar Jackson is the guy you want for the stretch run in the fantasy football season. Two of his next three games are against the Patriots and Steelers, but he finishes the season against Dallas, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and the Giants. Those 4 teams have a combined 10 wins between them, and Cleveland has 5 of those. Jacksonville and the Giants are two of the worst teams in the league, and those will be during the fantasy playoffs. Lamar Jackson has been a disappointment this season given the draft pick you needed to spend to get him - but if you are still in the playoff hunt, Jackson is the guy you want under center for you.
Bridgewater probably has the worst. Aside from a late-season bye week, he faces Green Bay and Washington in the final two weeks of the season. The Packers are 9th in passing yards allowed (1,875) and will be looking to secure a playoff spot in week 15 so they will be playing hard. Washington is ranked first in passing yards allowed (1,485) and they will also be trying to secure a playoff spot or win the division in week 16. The Panthers could be out of the hunt by then and may not even be motivated to play. Nothing like going into the fantasy super bowl and have your quarterback benched because they want to try out a younger guy since they have no playoff hopes.
Running Backs Returning to the Field Soon
Waldman: Which injured back do you believe has the best shot to return to fantasy glory this year and which is the least reliable?
Grant: Nick Chubb seems like the best option. Houston has given up big games to the last three running backs they faced—James Robinson, Jamaal Williams, and Derrick Henry. Chubb will still split time with Kareem Hunt but they make a powerful one-two punch that Cleveland has lacked since he left. Chubb should have a good chunk of the Cleveland offense going forward the rest of the season as well.
Chris Carson seems the least reliable at this point. It's still not clear if he's even expected to play this weekend, and the Seahawks face the Rams this week—a team who hasn't given up 100 yards rushing to a running back all season. The key to Seattle's success lies in Russell Wilson rather than Carson, even if he is back. He's the guy I trust the least out of this lot.
Settle: There are several big-name running backs coming back from injury, but the one in the best position in Nick Chubb. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing and will do everything they can to keep the game out of Baker Mayfield’s hands. Kareem Hunt will still get his carries, but Chubb should resume his duties in his return. The Browns will also be without Odell Beckham for the rest of the season and will rely on the run even more.
Kenyan Drake has the worst projected return as he was not successful before he went down. The Cardinals have run the entire offense through Kyler Murray, including running the ball. Murray had over 100 rushing yards last week and is the focal point of the offense. I would not want to rely on Drake down the stretch as the offensive scheme does not feature him.
Haseley: Can I throw Raheem Mostert in the mix as well?
Waldman: Sure. Just for you.
Haseley: Let's look at their schedules...
- Drake (ARI) BUF, at SEA, at NE, LAR, at NYG, PHI, SF
- Carson (SEA) at LAR, ARI, at PHI, NYG, NYJ, at WAS, LAR
- Chubb (CLE) HOU, PHI, at JAC, at TEN, BAL, at NYG, at NYJ
- Mostert (SF) at NO, BYE, at LAR, BUF, WAS, at DAL, at ARI
Chubb, followed by Carson is likely to be the most healthy starting Week 10. Drake and Mostert are still a game or maybe even two away from playing. Looking at schedules, my top choice between Chubb and Carson is Chubb with favorable games against Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
Plus, Cleveland won't have to play Pittsburgh again until Week 17 after most leagues end. My least reliable pick here is Drake. We don't know exactly when he'll return, plus there is no surefire conclusion that he'll even get his job back from Chase Edmonds when he does return to health.
In Seattle, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer have gotten more work in Carson's absence, but even when Carson was healthy, Carlos Hyde was getting a decent number of touches. Similarly, in Cleveland, Kareem Hunt has been a big part of the offense all season. So while Carson and Chubb are good NFL running backs, their upside fantasy potential is capped at a lower height than Drake's is.
Wood: Kenyan Drake is the least valuable because he wasn't getting it done while healthy. The Cardinals are doing just fine without him, and Chase Edmonds is more likely to be the 2021 starter than Drake, who has failed to capitalize on his one-year, $8-million contract.
Neither Nick Chubb nor Chris Carson has great schedules in the second half, but both are talented enough to excel in a neutral matchup. Carson has the clearest path to stardom because we know he'll be the workhorse when he's healthy. Chubb is the most talented of the three (by far) but has to contend with Kareem Hunt -- who has been an every-week fantasy stud in Chubb's absence. It makes no sense for the Browns to abandon Hunt down the stretch. I'd happily rely on either Chubb or Carson for the stretch run, but give the slightest edge to Carson, assuming they're both 100% healthy.
Schofield: I would agree with the consensus that Kenyan Drake is the least reliable choice. His opportunities were limited already when he was healthy, and it seems that Kliff Kingsbury is content with what Chase Edmunds has offered already, so I'd be wary of Drake's opportunities going forward once he returns.
It is a tough decision for the best option, but I would lean towards Nick Chubb. He's the most talented of the three backs, and the Browns have a favorable schedule over the Week 10 to 16 period. They'll get the Giants and the Jets, the Jaguars, the Texans, and the Eagles.
All of those are winnable games that should provide positive or neutral game scripts, allowing Kevin Stefanski to stay with his game plan and not turn the games over to Baker Mayfield. Things might get squirrelly in Weeks 13 and 14 when they play the Titans and Ravens, but for the most part, Chubb is in the best position to succeed. Add in his talent, and he's the guy who gets the edge in my mind.
Pasquino: I like both Carson and Chubb, and Chubb has a great playoff schedule with two trips to New York (Giants then Jets). Yes, he does have Tennessee and Baltimore on the docket, but Jacksonville is also on the list. I think Chubb is a must get for any team that wants to win their championship if he can be acquired at a reasonable price, based solely on those final two matchups.
Carson is not far behind for me as he has at least four strong matchups (3 NFC East games—at Philadephia, Giants, and at Washington in Week 15) with the Jets slated for Week 14. I would not mind getting Carson if I could, but Chubb is the better get.
Drake is a solid running back, but he is not a three-down option and his quarterback is arguably the best runner on the team. Throw in Chase Edmonds' stealing 10+ touches a game and you are really relying on Drake to find the end zone to be a fantasy RB1 each week. That's not good enough.
Unlikely Fantasy Outcomes of 2020, So Far...
Matt Waldman: Pick from the list below and explain A) which unexpected performance is the least expected. B) Which one would you count on sustaining this year? C) Which one do you count on continuing this year and next year?
- No.14 PPR WR Will Fuller playing all 8 games.
- UDFA rookie RB James Robinson earning top-5 PPR production in Jacksonville
- RB Todd Gurley earning top-5 Non-PPR and top-6 PPR production
35-year-old Adrian PetersonEh, forget that, he's superhuman- Former UDFA TE Robert Tonyan Jr as the No.9 PPR option
Where do you stand?
Tremblay: Which performance was least expected depends on when expectations were measured. In August, James Robinson's studliness was by far the least expected. But for people holding fantasy drafts during the week leading up to opening kickoff, after Robinson had been named the Week 1 starter, it was well within the realm of possibility that he'd play well and hold onto the job. You'll sometimes hear the phrase "running backs don't matter," or "rushing production is a team stat." While not entirely true, it does seem to be the case that replacement-level running backs can find immediate success as NFL starters more frequently than it happens at other positions.
Waldman: Bingo.
Tremblay: So from the standpoint of the week leading up to Week 1, I consider Robert Tonyan Jr's success to be the least expected. Before the season started, there were no Packers tight ends that were considered draftable in 12-team leagues, but if forced to pick one, most would have picked Jace Sternberger. Then probably Mercedes Lewis, then Josiah Deguara. Robert Tonyan Jr was off the map in a position group that was itself off the map.
In fact, I'm not convinced that Sternberger and Deguara don't have more long-term (dynasty) potential than Tonyan. I wouldn't count on Tonyan's production to be sustained into the future.
Waldman: Great case made there for Tonyan, Maurile. He was a UDFA signed by the Lions with a couple of years experience at tight end after converting to the position from quarterback at football hotbed, Indiana State. The idea that the Packers were going to steal a starting tight end from the depth chart of the Lions a few years ago, a team that needed a tight at the time it signed Tonyan, seems absurd. Especially when you consider the Lions now have a first-round pick with high expectations, and he hasn't performed to Tonyan's level. But here we are.
Tremblay: The player whose production I would count on, both for the rest of this season and beyond, is James Robinson. He's been the Jaguars' workhorse this season, and that station looks good on him. Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo don't appear to be significant threats to eat into Robinson's role this season, and while there will always be training camp battles in future years, Robinson has proven that he can get the job done. He'll enter 2021 training camp as the favorite to be the lead back again..
Haseley: I think James Robinson fits the bill for all three. He was the most unexpected. A small-school lesser-known running back who vaults into the Top 10 on, on Jacksonville no less. His body of work has longevity for this year and next, especially if Doug Marrone maintains his position as head coach. If not, then he'll have to prove himself over again with the new regime.
Talent usually wins out in those situations and it's clear Robinson has talent. He has shown success in working with Gardner Minshew and Jake Luton. Can he maintain a top-five status? The Jaguars schedule for the rest of the year includes Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Minnesota, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Chicago. That's not the most favorable schedule outside of GB and TEN, but backs who catch a lot of passes tend to stay productive against tougher opponents. He has his work cut out for him to maintain a top 5 standing, but it's possible.
Pasquino: I'd have to say James Robinson is the least expected. I missed on him as a viable option late in drafts and that's probably one of my bigger drafting regrets this season. He has been fantasy gold and likely an MVP for any team with him on it. Even on a bad team, he's proven to be a fantasy starter each and every week, with Jacksonville not even thinking of other options for their backfield. I could make a strong argument that he answers all three questions - least expected, could last all year and also next year as well.
Grant: The Packers spend a third-round pick last season to add Jace Sternberger to the roster. He sat on the sidelines for the entire season, waiting for his turn as the starter. This year, he should have ascended into the starting lineup and posted some solid numbers this year given the resurgence of Aaron Rodgers and the injuries to the Green Bay receiving corps.
Instead, Robert Tonyan Jr took over the slot and after the first four weeks of the season, looked like the hot waiver wire pickup at tight end with five receiving touchdowns in three games. He was the hot waiver wire pick going into Week 5 when the Packers had a bye week.
However, since then, he hasn't found the end zone and has turned in a couple of one- and two-catch games. He's still involved in the offense enough to be relevant fantasy-wise, but I don't know if you can count on him going forward. He had an unexpectedly hot start and then collapsed when everyone was jumping on the bandwaggon. That's twice the unexpectedness! (and yes, I was one of them!).
The Jacksonville running back situation was a question mark going into the season, and James Robinson emerged as a legitimate fantasy back on pure volume alone. While the Jaguars are still playing for a top-five draft pick next year, Robinson is still the unquestioned started with little chance of that changing unless he gets hurt. Robinson is a guy you can insert in your flex position and only consider removing him if the Jaguars face a top-ranked defense.
When DeAndre Hopkins departed Houston, I firmly believed that Will Fuller would become a solid fantasy receiver. What I didn't expect was for him to stay healthy for the first half of the season as well. Maybe he's finally put the injury bug behind him? One can only hope.
I really like Fuller and expect him to be a solid fantasy option this year and beyond. There was talk of him moving out of Houston before the trade deadline but that seems to have cooled down now. With touchdowns in the last six games, Fuller is already on pace to be a top fantasy wide receiver this season. I love the guy and would happily have him on any of my dynasty/keeper teams as well.
Wood: The most surprising has to be James Robinson, and it's frankly absurd to say anything else. Up until the final few days of the preseason, Robinson wasn't on anyone's redraft radar. Period. After Leonard Fournette was unceremoniously released, all eyes turned to Ryquell Armstead until he got Covid-19, and then most assumed Devine Ozigbo would be the No. 1 back. In addition, everyone worried the Jaguars would be so bad it would be hard for them to commit to the running game consistently.
For those who remember Phillip Lindsay coming out of nowhere, that was nothing compared to what Robinson has done as an undrafted rookie. Robinson currently ranks fifth among running backs with 805 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns. He's done it nearly every game regardless of game script.
It's one thing to surprise early, but Robinson continues to deliver even with rookie Jake Luton under center and opposing defenses keying on Robinson. He's special. NFL scouts completely missed a true difference-maker. There's no reason to think he cannot continue producing at this level in 2020, 2021, and beyond. He's talented, has a cheap contract on a team that's rebuilding, and has shown an ability to produce up the middle, hitting the outside, or as a receiver. He's a total threat.
Schofield: I think the most unexpected is Will Fuller playing all eight games. Counting on him has been fool's gold for the most part, but he's proved people like me wrong to this point.
Waldman: See...that's my thought! We got a lot of James Robinson answers here, but maybe it's because we do a lot of draft work that we have come to expect that UDFA running backs aren't as much of a surprise as a tightly-wrapped talent who gets hurt hopping off the bus...Sorry, continue.
Schofield: The two I think have the best chance of sustaining this year are Robert Tonyan Jr and James Robinson. Robinson—more on him in a minute—has really impressed me and is a huge part of Jacksonville's offense right now, and will remain a big part if they rely on a rookie quarterback going forward.
Tonyan benefits from Matt LaFleur's offensive designs. The Green Bay Packers are using a lot of multiple TE packages, and he's been a huge beneficiary. I do not see that changing down the stretch, given what they are doing conceptually, and how they failed to acquire the previously-mentioned Fuller at the trade deadline.
I would think Robinson has the best chance of sustaining this into next year and beyond. He's shown enough from a talent standpoint, both as a runner and what he can do in the passing game (both as a receiver and a blocker) that he should remain a feature back in the Jacksonville offense in 2021 and perhaps beyond.
Settle:While Will Fuller remaining healthy is a very big surprise, James Robinson’s performance has to be the least expected. He is playing on a team that has not been very good and has been in a negative game-script in the second half of almost every game. After the team released Leonard Fournette they were not even sure who the starting back was going to be coming into the season. Robinson has done it all for the Jaguars and has been one of the few bright spots for that team this season.
Todd Gurley has scored a lot of touchdowns so far this year and while that may not seem sustainable it seems the most likely for the rest of this season. Atlanta’s offense has never been the issue. They can move the ball up and down the field and that has benefitted Gurley. He has no real competition from Brian Hill and will continue to get all of the goal-line looks.
James Robinson has the best case to continue this success this year and through next season. The Jaguars do not have anyone else and will be in a full rebuild. He has shown he can handle the position and there is no reason for Jacksonville to spend on a free agent running back. He has shown that he can be a 3-down back and has excelled at catching the ball out of the backfield, pass blocking, and running between the tackles.
