FBG Predicts: The NFC North

Photo: USA Today Sports

Since everyone is sitting around waiting for camps to start, we decided to ask the Footballguys staff to offer up some predictions for each division. We asked staff members to predict the order of finish, if the division was good enough to get multiple playoff teams, and if there was a team in each division bad enough to contend for the 1.01 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Today, we'll look at the NFC North and compare our staff predictions to win totals from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Find links to other divisions here.

This looks like the most-competitive division in the NFL.

Jeff Pasquino

I'd flip the top two with the Vikings atop the NFC North. Green Bay's offense is not that formidable any longer, and they are minimizing their passing game a bit too much with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback but not much talent to catch the ball on the other side of his throws. The Packers are going to try and evaluate A.J. Dillon at running back so they don't have to pay Aaron Jones, so Green Bay feels like a team in transition.

Quarterbacks drive the NFL, so the mess in Chicago will push the Bears towards the bottom of the division once again despite strong talent on defense. Detroit is quite the dark horse as Matthew Stafford was having a great year before missing the final eight games. The Lions started last year 3-3-1 before limping down past Halloween with nine straight losses. I think the Lions could surprise, but won't be quite good enough to contend for a Wild Card spot.

Bob Henry

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but if this actually starts to play out the way I am writing the below - you can bet the house on COVID ruining the NFL season. It would be the most ultimate Lions things ever. Henceforth...

1. Detroit
2. Green Bay
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago

Every year a surprise happens and a team goes from worst to first. The Lions were far more competitive early last year than their 3-12-1 record indicates. The Packers will need to pin their hopes on a strong running game and opportunistic defense. It served them well last year and Rodgers remains the class of the division's quarterbacks, but Matthew Stafford could crash the party if he can just stay healthy. The offense has better depth at all the skill positions and while their defense remains sketchy, a player of Jeffrey Okudah's talent can create a ripple effect to those around him. Stafford was playing at the highest level of his career before his back deteriorated and the Lions season with it. DAndre Swift is a legitimate playmaker and Kerryon Johnson is a man's man when healthy. Marvin Jones and Kenny Golliday may quietly be the most dangerous downfield perimeter threats in the league. If T.J.Hockenson takes a leap forward as our own Jason Wood documented in his spotlight, this offense could be a legitimate force. Now that I laid those words down, expect an absolute meltdown in the Motor City. (Same Old Lions).

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?

The Short Answer

There are multiple playoff-caliber teams in the NFC North, but this division may cannibalize itself where only one team gets into the postseason.

Phil Alexander

The Vikings might challenge for a playoff berth but have a lot of new faces on defense. With each of the other NFC divisions boasting at least two solid teams, they could be on the outside looking in for a wildcard spot.

Chad Parsons

Good enough? Yes. Likely? I will side with a divisional champion berth and no wildcard with the Vikings changing over on defense and losing Stefon Diggs.

Jason Wood

This is the hardest division to read. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the four teams made the playoffs because they all have pieces in place that could lead to 9+ wins. I think Green Bay and Minnesota are both good bets to be among the six best NFC teams, as both have balanced, experienced teams that improved in the offseason.

Ryan Hester

This is the hardest division to predict. There's one "will get you to the playoffs almost by himself" quarterback, and his team just used a first-round pick on another quarterback. Not only does that create some drama, but it also represents a lack of capital invested in a player who could have contributed this season. One might say that Green Bay doesn't need a first-round pick to contribute right away because they won 13 games in 2019. But per Football Outsiders, Green Bay's Pythagorean wins expectation (the number of wins they should have had based solely on points for and against) was 9.8.

Green Bay is a prime candidate for a significant fall from 2019 to 2020. That could leave them on the outside of the wild card picture. This division will get one team in the postseason because the rules say they must. But the others will be grinding just to be at or slightly above .500.

Bob Henry

Certainly, but it's also possible that only one gets in with just 9 or 10 wins in a tightly packed race.

Jordan McNamara

Yes. You could put this division in any order and I don't think it would be unreasonable. There is no dominant team and each has a different unit of strength that could fuel a playoff run.

Jeff Haseley

It's possible to have two playoff teams in this division, and if all stars align, three teams. On the surface, Green Bay and Minnesota appear to be the front-runners to battle for the division title. The two combined for 23 wins in 2019 with few changes to think a decline is coming. Detroit is my dark horse team in NFC North. Matthew Stafford has overcome his back injury, they just drafted a shiny new running back in D'Andre Swift, Kenny Golladay is coming into his own as one of the better receivers in the league, plus T.J. Hockenson is coming into the picture as an offensive threat. Like so many teams, the defense will dictate how far they go and if they will pretend or contend. Detroit has the personnel to make a move and I believe 2020 will be all about the offense.

Andy Hicks

This is going to be one of the hardest divisions to forecast. There is literally no order that would surprise me. If things go well, this division could easily have two or three playoff teams. Or one.

• Minnesota has played well under Mike Zimmer, but have they peaked? They either win the division or collapse.
• Chicago had a down year last year, but 2018 proved there is a good foundation there with decent quarterback play. Maybe they play to Trubisky’s strengths instead of fighting them or Foles has to play.
• Green Bay had a lot go right last year that could easily land on the other side of the coin in 2020. Playing for the future instead of this year may cause problems this year. How much of an issue will Aaron Rodgers be?
• Detroit could easily play like normal, get Matt Patricia fired and Matthew Stafford moved on or they could have been building to a breakout year. Early season momentum will be crucial.

Andrew Davenport

Boy, I'm in total agreement with most of the guys here on the main point: this is an extremely hard division to read. I stared at these teams for a long time and realized I can tell a story about every one of them to win the division. Ultimately I do think they're good enough to get two teams in, but three would be a stretch. Detroit was playing well before Matthew Stafford got hurt last year, and Chicago has a defense that just needs a little help from the offense. However, I think that both teams have such a deficiency (Lions on defense, Bears on offense) it keeps them out of the playoffs. For Green Bay, I'm not sure Matt LaFleur was an improvement for the offense even though they won 13 games partially from shifting their emphasis to the running game. But, there is a reason that Vegas has their win total at 9 games despite last year's regular season. Ryan makes the point I would rely on - they should've expected fewer than 13 wins last year so I'd expect regression in 2020. The other fly in the ointment is drawing the NFC South with three excellent teams who are going to make it hard for the North to have two teams get far past 9 wins. I still think they'll get two in the playoffs partially from feasting on teams like Jacksonville and Carolina, but I believe the Vikings are in a better spot to win the division.

Devin Knotts

With the expansion of playoff teams to seven, this is a division that could get three in the playoffs this season. Green Bay and Minnesota as long as they stay healthy will be in the mix. Detroit's a team that could either finish first or last in this division and a lot of that is going to depend on their newly built secondary. Desmond Trufant has not been the player he was earlier in his career, but a new look along with not having all the pressure on him could be a fresh start as he pairs up with Jeff Okudah.

Justin Howe

Both the Lions and Packers could find themselves fighting late for a playoff berth. I may be the staff's only real believer in the Lions, who could have been on their way to great things last year had Matthew Stafford not been lost. They opened the year with a tie, then went 2-2 over 4 games decided by 4 points or less. Not long after, Stafford went down and one of the league's worst backup situations took over, closing the year on an 0-9 tear behind Jeff Driskel and David Blough. But Stafford had been on pace for his best season as a pro in terms of yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, and touchdown rate. Armed with two playmaking wideouts - and Kenny Golladay could take another quantum leap - he could well be this year's version of 2017 MVP Matt Ryan and drag these decent Lions to the postseason.

Is there a team in this division that will challenge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft?

The Short Answer

It would be a surprise.

Phil Alexander

Detroit's defense is one of the league's worst, but a healthy Matthew Stafford can win enough shootouts to keep them out of No. 1 pick territory. Chicago also has potential here if Nick Foles plays the way he did for the Jaguars last year, and Mitchell Trublisky continues to flop.

Chad Parsons

I highly doubt it with the Bears solid on defense and the Lions good enough on offense to win a handful of games or more. A complete bottoming-out of the Bears at quarterback might do the trick if projecting a storyline to get to 1.01 (or Matthew Stafford missing most of the season).

Jason Wood

I don't think any of these teams is bad enough for the worst record. A lot of people are down on Chicago, but I'm not ready to give up on Nagy, the defense, or having enviable depth at most of the offensive skill positions. Nick Foles isn't a world-beater, but he outdueled Tom Brady in the Super Bowl just a few seasons ago. At best, he pushes Trubisky to live up to his physical gifts. At worst, Foles keeps the Bears respectable and well off the pace for the 1st overall draft pick.

Ryan Hester

No. While the division doesn't offer multiple-team upside into the postseason, it also doesn't have a truly dreadful team. Detroit could be picking in the top-5, but Matthew Stafford will keep them from the bottom of the league standings.

Bob Henry

Similar to the NFC East, this is another division that could cannibalize on each other creating a top-to-bottom finish separated by only a few wins. Any of these teams could steal a win or two from their divisional foes, especially without home-field advantage and a lot of unknowns with COVID. I don't see any of these team vying for the top spot in the draft.

Jordan McNamara

There is so much uncertainty this season, but I'd be surprised if anyone in this division picked first.

Jeff Haseley

I have Chicago finishing last in the division, despite their 8-8 finish last season. In a year where offense is going to be crucial, I'm not certain Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles will be enough to compete with the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, or Matthew Stafford. Plus this division will play the challenging, offensive-minded NFC South this season. Chicago, for me, draws the short end of the stick in many of those matchups. Do they have a chance to finish last in the league? No, I doubt that not unless they unravel completely, which I doubt happens.

Andy Hicks

Realistically only Detroit should be entertained in discussions, but there is enough doubt in all four sides that the possibilities are there. Unlikely as they are for the other three teams.

Andrew Davenport

Nah. You can always make the argument that a team like Detroit could do it if they lose Stafford again, but you can make that point about virtually any team when it comes to their quarterback. With rosters as they sit now, none of these teams should be competing for the top draft pick next year.

Devin Knotts

The Bears are an outside contender for the number one pick. The lack of talent on offense is a major concern as outside of Allen Robinson, they do not have many options and an offensive line that is expected to struggle this season. David Montgomery has hype around him but has yet to show that he can be a consistent running back in the NFL. They should be good enough to win a few games this season, but with an aging defense, this is a team that could struggle this year.

Justin Howe

It's hard to find much to like about this Bears team, which simply cannot find an offensive identity and will now be helmed by some blend of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles. It appears they'll need another incredible defensive showing to balance it, but that group dropped from No. 1 in 2018 to No. 8 last year in DVOA. That may not seem devastating, but they also fell to 23rd in sacks and 22nd in takeaways. Even with Robert Quinn on board, it's hard to call this an impact unit. The Bears may not be awful enough to chase the No. 1 pick, but I have a hard time projecting more than 5-6 wins.