Photo: Orlando Jorge Ramirez, USA Today Sports

Guiding DFS Tournament Principles

There are three keys to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays that we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays that still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Lastly, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target.

Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.

1. Identify the good chalk

Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.

The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.

The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the-minute projections.

Week 4 good chalk

• Russell Wilson
• Dak Prescott
• Alvin Kamara
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• DK Metcalf

2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.

We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.

The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.

Week 4 lower-rostered targets

• Keenan Allen
• A.J. Green
• Dalvin Cook
• Tyler Boyd
• D.J. Chark
• Cooper Kupp

3. Show up to the party early

The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.

Week 4 breakout targets

• T.J. Hockenson
• Preston Williams
• David Montgomery
• Antonio Gibson

4. Stack to win

Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.

The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass-catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.

Week 3 top stacks

• Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (run it back with Preston Williams or Mike Gesicki
• Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller (run it back with Dalvin Cook)
• Joe Burrow to A.J. Green or Tyler Boyd (run it back with D.J. Chark or James Robinson)

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterback

Russell Wilson, Seattle ($9,000 — 14%)

We said last week that Wilson might appear as a core play every week because it appears he is on track for a historical 50+ touchdown season. His Week 3 performance only reinforced that view. Wilson put up another five-touchdown game and it actually should have been six if not for a fluky goal-line fumble. If we were betting on any team being able to slow down the league’s hottest passer it would not be the Dolphins. Through three weeks, Miami is the NFL’s worst defense, ranking last in DVOA. With both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde banged up and listed as questionable, it decreases the chances the Seahawks revert to the old ground and pound offense of past seasons.

The salary is creeping up towards the point it is uncomfortable to fit him in but that will only serve to keep him from getting prohibitively popular. The huge number of games with high totals will also help spread out the roster percentages at quarterback.

Dak Prescott, Dallas ($8,200 — 8%)

Prescott is still underpriced. He leads the league in passing attempts, completions, and yards. On top of the huge passing numbers, Prescott is always a running threat down around the goal line, as we saw when he rushed for three touchdowns in Week 2. In terms of points per dollar, Prescott looks like the strongest projection on the entire slate. This is a Cowboys offense that is determined to play fast and stay aggressive.

I asked Dak Prescott about the Cowboys’ tempo the first three weeks of the season, because I love all you stat nerds and want you to be happy. pic.twitter.com/nF2UDa3vOK

— David Helman (@HelmanDC) October 1, 2020

Cleveland was shredded by Lamar Jackson in the first half but was given a reprieve in the second half with the game out of hand. Joe Burrow carved them up for over 300 yards in Week 2. Keep an eye on the status of top cornerback Denzel Ward who has been struggling to play through a groin injury. His absence would further add to Cleveland’s difficulty keeping up with the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the NFL.

Deshaun Watson, Houston ($7,800 — 7%)

Watson should fly under the radar just a bit given his slow start (QB17 through three games) and the multitude of other high-total games on the slate. However, it is key to remember that he has faced three of the top 13 defenses (according to DVOA) in Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. A home matchup against a beat-up, below-average Vikings defense could be just the boost Watson needs to get his season back on track. Las Vegas certainly believes in Houston’s offense this week, as evidenced by the 29-point implied team total. Stacking Watson and Will Fuller at a combined salary of less than $14K is a low-cost path to a ton of upside.

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

Running Back

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans ($8,800 — 34.5%)

We are getting to the point of the year where we know who the truly elite running backs are, which means they are going to be both expensive and popular. Expect the majority of lineups this week to include either Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) as their RB1. You cannot go wrong with either but the slight lean is towards Kamara. He has scored multiple touchdowns in every single game this season and his pass-game usage is almost hard to fathom. In fact, Kamara would rank as the WR3 in FanDuel scoring if you completely ignored his rushing output. Kamara is averaging 9.0 receptions, 95 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown per game. With Michael Thomas still banged up and Drew Brees not throwing very deep down the field, Kamara should again see a ton of targets.

The Lions have conceded the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and allowed the biggest fantasy game of the season to date to Aaron Jones (236 yards and 3 touchdowns). Detroit ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. If the Saints can get off to a faster start, we could see Kamara get a few more carries than in recent weeks. Regardless of game script, Kamara is going to be a huge part of the offense which is one reason he is a top play despite his popularity.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City ($7,400 — 24%)

The volume has been encouraging for Edwards-Helaire. He has handled at least 16 carries in every game (with a high of 25) and has averaged 7.0 targets per game over the last two weeks. Those targets are especially high value because many have come deeper down the field and he is regularly one of Mahomes’ first reads down around the goal line. The only thing holding Edwards-Helaire back from high-end RB1 production is a lack of touchdowns. Given his role and the high-scoring Chiefs offense, he is due for some positive touchdown regression. It could come in a potential shootout against the Patriots. As a rookie, Kareem Hunt had a monster game early in the season against the Patriots and we could see the same from Edwards-Helaire. The salary savings of Edwards-Helaire compared to the other top running backs is another big mark in his favor. If he can merely match Elliott and Kamara, the $1,400-$1,600 salary difference can put you at a big advantage compared to the chalkier builds.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire —

Pass game numbers vs. BAL = 5-of-6 targets, 70 yards.

Vertical releases from the backfield, screens, swings, more.

In his last two games, Edwards-Helaire has caught 11-of-14 targets for 102 yards. #Chiefs @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/odecjFMKWm

— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) September 29, 2020

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota ($8,700 — 11%)

Cook is not quite contrarian but it is notable that he is expected to be on less than one third the number of rosters as Elliott or Kamara. Houston’s defense ranks 24th against the run and has given up huge games to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (138 yards and a touchdown) and James Conner (149 yards and a touchdown) in addition to allowing Baltimore’s RBBC to put up over 200 yards and a touchdown. Overall, the Texans are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Dalvin Cook could be in for a big game against the Texans.#SKOL https://t.co/ER6lvY53qm

— FOX Sports North (@fsnorth) October 1, 2020

The Minnesota offense finally seemed to click last week with the emergence of Justin Jefferson providing a much needed second receiving threat. With Tennessee forced to respect the pass, Cook unsurprisingly had by far his best game of the year with 199 total yards. This is a spot where we get an elite talent, running hot, and in a great matchup at a relatively low percentage rostered.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona ($7,000 — 12%)

Drake has yet to live up to his preseason hype and he was a disappointment last week in what looked like a strong matchup against the Lions. He still received 19 touches but failed to find the end zone. Will Kyler Murray continue to post an 80% share of the team’s rushing touchdowns? In three weeks, Murray has already matched his 2019 total of four rushing touchdowns. If you think the rushing touchdown pendulum swings back towards the running backs, it is easy to imagine a multiple-touchdown game for Drake. It is worth considering Drake as a contrarian option this week despite the slow start due to his having the best possible matchup. Carolina’s defense gave up huge fantasy points to running backs in 2019 and it has been more of the same in 2020.

Against opposing running backs the Panthers are giving up:

• 37.5 FanDuel points per game.
• A league-high seven rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
• A league-high 32 receptions

Other Running Backs to Consider

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen, LA Chargers ($6,900 — 6%)

How often do we get an opportunity to be contrarian by rostering a great player at a great price when he is coming off of a 19-target game?

Keenan Allen: highest-graded WR in the AFC (81.9) pic.twitter.com/rJQUViOh7d

— PFF (@PFF) September 30, 2020

The emergence of rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has been a boon to Keenan Allen. In two games with the rookie at the helm, Allen is averaging 14.5 targets, 10 receptions and 114 receiving yards per game. Tampa Bay has been slightly above-average against opposing wide receivers through three games this season but there is some reason to doubt those numbers. New Orleans lost Michael Thomas early in Week 1, D.J. Moore put up 8-120-0 in Week 2, and Tampa faced Jeff Driskel in Week 3. This is still mostly the same defense that gave up a league-high 36.4 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers last season.

DK Metcalf, Seattle ($6,900 — 27%)

Metcalf has been featured here every week and will continue to be until he is priced as the top receiver he is. Metcalf has scored a touchdown and put up at least 90 receiving yards in each of his first three games. We said last week that “this could be the week he breaks out with a multi-touchdown game.” But for a boneheaded play where he let up before the end zone and had the ball punched out just short of the goal line, he would have had a huge game.

Metcalf, at 22-years old, looks on the brink of emerging as one of the NFL’s most dominant players. His speed and physicality make him an impossible cover. He is rarely leaving the field, playing 197 of the Seahawks’ 201 offensive snaps this season. The matchup against Miami is a strong one. The Dolphins gave up over 400 yards two weeks ago to Buffalo and have the 25th-ranked pass defense (DVOA).

A.J. Green, Cincinnati ($5,700 — 2%)

We like the chalk at quarterback and running back. It is also hard to ignore some of the chalk at wide receiver, especially the two Seattle wide receivers. We need to find somewhere to differentiate our lineups if we are going to roster four or five of these more popular options. One of our best ways to do so is by rostering at least one sub-3% wide receiver.

We have a number of high-upside, extremely contrarian options to consider. Some favorites include Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Boyd. These are all players I am looking to be over the field on in tournaments.

My favorite in this category, however, is A.J. Green. In training camp, Green uncharacteristically went public with his displeasure that the coaching staff was holding him out of practices and scrimmages late in camp out of an abundance of caution due to his tweaked hamstring. His honest self-assessment was that he badly needed the reps after so much time out. Early-season results have shown Green’s assessment was correct. Despite seeing 9.3 targets per game and ranking amongst the league leaders in both air yards and end zone targets, he has not yet broken through with a big game. There has been some bad luck to go along with some mediocre play from Green but we should trust that things will turn for him at some point soon.

A.J. Green has been targeted in the end-zone 6 times.

He has 0 TDs. pic.twitter.com/JzNMspWB8t

— PFF (@PFF) October 1, 2020

He has had a chance to knock the rust off and against a Jacksonville defense ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA, this could be the week Green returns to form. At this price and projected popularity, it is worth rolling the dice to find out.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami ($5,700 — 8%)

As mentioned above, Seattle stacks look very attractive again. Russell Wilson is on fire with Lockett and Metcalf both hogging targets. If we are pushing our chips in on another Seattle offensive explosion, we are also assuming Miami is able to at least somewhat keep pace. In that scenario, it is easy to imagine Gesicki having a big game. In the Dolphins’ lone shootout to date this year against Buffalo, Gesicki had a monster 8-130-1 performance. We can make a case for DeVante Parker or Preston Williams instead, but Gesicki is the preferred “run it back” option if we are game stacking.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit ($5,400 — 5%)

Hockenson has shown a very solid floor this season, with at least four catches and 50+ yards in every game but has not yet had the huge game we believe he is capable of. In a potential shootout against New Orleans, Hockenson has another opportunity for a breakout performance at low popularity. Even if he fails to hit his ceiling, his floor is one that will not sink your tournament chances at this price point. He is a low-risk, high-reward play.

GO TRADE FOR T.J. HOCKENSON 📈
🗣️ @dwainmcfarland pic.twitter.com/DFoKTTuJUp

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 30, 2020

Other Tight Ends to Consider

Defense