Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

Guiding DFS Tournament Principles

There are four keys to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to use game stacks to add positive correlation to our lineups.

Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.

1. Identify the good chalk

Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.

The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.

The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the-minute projections.

Week 2 good chalk

• Dak Prescott (12%)
• Ezekiel Elliott (29%)
• Jonathan Taylor (332%)
• Derrick Henry (25%)
• Davante Adams (29%)
• Mark Andrews (14%)

2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.

We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.

The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.

Week 2 lower-rostered targets

• Tom Brady (2%)
• David Montgomery (1%)
• Miles Sanders (1%)
• Raheem Mostert (6%)
• Mike Evans (7%)
• D.J. Moore (4%)

3. Show up to the party early

The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.

Week 2 breakout targets

• Scott Miller (1%)
• Jerry Jeudy (1%)
• Brandon Aiyuk (1%)

4. Stack to win

Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.

The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass-catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.

Week 2 top stacks

1. Tom Brady with Mike Evans and/or Scotty Miller (run it back with D.J. Moore)
2. Dak Prescott with some combination of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup (run it back with Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones)
3. Lamar Jackson with Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews (run it back with Will Fuller)

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterback

Tom Brady, New England ($7,600 — 2%)

Last week, we identified Kyler Murray as the quarterback whose upside far exceeded his popularity as a player only rostered by 2% of the tournament field. We also recommended pairing him with DeAndre Hopkins. This week, Brady looks like the best of the sub-5% rostered quarterbacks to have a huge week.

The matchup looks great. Carolina gave up 34 points at home to the Raiders in Week 1. The Panthers defensive line did not have a single sack or quarterback hit on Derek Carr. If Carolina does not get to Brady, he is going to pick their inexperienced secondary apart. The linemakers in Las Vegas are bullish on the Buccaneers this week, with Tampa Bay boasting one of the highest implied team totals (28.8).

In the past, Brady has shown an uncanny ability to bounce back after poor games and prove doubters wrong.

Is Tom Brady toast? On the eve of Panthers-Bucs in Week 2, let's discuss.https://t.co/22uiXHozSP

— Scott Fowler (@scott_fowler) September 18, 2020

There is some uncertainty about how much Brady still has in the tank. One of our guiding principles in large-field tournaments should be to embrace situations with uncertainty (where there is upside) and not shy away from them.

With Chris Godwin expected to miss the game, our stacking options are narrowed. Mike Evans is the top option but Scotty Miller is also a sneakily strong play. Both will be broken down in detail below.

Josh Allen, Buffalo ($8,200 — 7%)

The Bills offense looked great in their Week 1 opener. The team added a heavy dose of play-action passes and Josh Allen excelled on those calls, racking up 165 yards off of play-action against the Jets. While the throws Allen misses always generate the most discussion, he was actually very good as a passer in his 2020 debut.

Top-5 on-target rates in Week 1 (@SportradarUS):

1) Gardner Minshew 95%
2) Russell Wilson 88.6%
3) Josh Allen 84.8%
4) Patrick Mahomes II 84.4%
5) Kirk Cousins 84%

Bottom 5:
28) Jimmy G 66.7%
29) Tyrod 66.7%
30) Mitch Trubisky 61.1%
31) Dwayne Haskins 56.4%
32) Baker 56.4%

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 17, 2020

The aspect of Allen’s game that makes him such a strong GPP target is his rushing ability, especially down around the goal line. Allen scored at least one rushing touchdown in eight games last season and is one-for-one so far in 2019. The Dolphins defense was gashed on the ground by Cam Newton last week (75 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns).

Allen is priced right in between Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, who are expected to be the two most popular quarterbacks on the slate so he should fly under the radar just a little bit. Playing Allen with either of his top big-play threats (Stefon Diggs and John Brown) makes for a strong tournament stack.

All week 1 signs point to the Bills becoming a pass-heavy team. Buffalo called 52 (!) pass plays in a game that they led by 17 in the first half and never got close. This from a team that has been among the most run heavy in football the last few years.

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) September 17, 2020

Dak Prescott, Dallas ($8,300 — 12%)

Prescott is going to be popular this week but not so much that we should avoid him in a spot where he carries massive upside. The Cowboys have the second-highest team total on the main slate and face an Atlanta defense that was just shredded at home by Russell Wilson. Wilson completed 31-of-35 passes fro 322 yards and 4 touchdowns. He had pass catchers running wide open against the Falcons’ inexperienced secondary. The Falcons also have the type of explosive passing offense that forces their opponents to keep the foot on the gas offensively. Expect many Falcons games to turn into shootouts in 2020.

Prescott played well despite some lackluster numbers in a loss to the Rams. Luckily for him, Atlanta does not have any defenders anywhere near as talented as Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey. He should have plenty of time in the pocket and there will be mismatches all over the field given that the Cowboys have arguably the best wide receiver trio in the NFL. Each of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb are underpriced so the stacking options are extremely enticing.

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis ($5,800 — 32%)

The injury to Marlon Mack opens the door for Taylor to take over as the Colts’ lead back. His speed, power, and vision behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines is a match made in heaven. Taylor put any concerns about his pass game usage to rest with six receptions in Week 1. The pass-game usage is especially intriguing given how much Philip Rivers has historically targeted his running backs. Despite being paired with some elite pass-catching backs, Melvin Gordon averaged 3.5 receptions per game from Rivers. If you pencil Taylor in for 15-20 carries and 3-4 receptions per game, he projects as an elite fantasy performer. Taylor will be the most popular player on the slate but he might be underpriced by $2,000 so it is hard to pass up the upside at this price.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee ($8,300 — 25%)

Henry’s projected workload is far higher than any other back in the league. He handled a whopping 34 touches in Week 1 against Denver. Going back to last season, Henry has had 32+ touches in four of his last five outings. The Titans are 9-point home favorites in a matchup against the Jaguars that will give the winner sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Henry is underpriced by about $1,000 and projects as good chalk this week. He saves his best for AFC South opponents.

Since the beginning of the 2018 season, @KingHenry_2 has produced an NFL-high 1,251 rushing yards in 12 games vs AFC South teams, also leading the league with an average of 104.3 ypg vs divisional foes. His totals: 498 rush yards vs @Jaguars, 383 vs @HoustonTexans & 370 vs @Colts

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) September 17, 2020

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas ($8,600 — 29%)

Elliott looked fantastic in a losing effort against the Rams. He has one of the highest floors in the league due to the talent of the Cowboys offense and his consistently high workload. The matchup is strong with the Cowboys favored by five at home in a potential shootout against Atlanta. There is realistic three- or four-touchdown upside for Elliott this week.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco ($6,500 — 6%)

The three running backs highlighted above are going to be extremely popular. Given how similar many rosters are going to look at running back, we will want to reserve at least one spot in our lineup for a lower-rostered player. If he is a running back, it will be especially helpful to differentiating our rosters from the field.

#AZCardinals vs. #FTTB
Breaking down what went right on RB Raheem Mostert's 76-yard TD...
*Garoppolo audibles based on S Chris Banjo pre-snap rotation (Cover-1 w/man underneath)
*Mostert gets cat-coverage vs. rookie OLB Isaiah Simmons
*Rookie bites outside, giving up inside lvg pic.twitter.com/rI3KKNUvnY

— Ryan Sakamoto (@BEASTwriter_) September 17, 2020

Mostert is the top running back option projected at less than 10% rostered. He took on a true workhorse role for the 49ers in Week 1. San Francisco has one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL and Mostert has shown the big-play ability we crave in big tournaments. His increased pass-game usage is an added bonus.

David Montgomery, Chicago ($5,600 — 1 %)

Montgomery made a surprisingly fast recovery from a groin injury suffered in camp. His totals of 13 carries and 3 targets do not standout without the context of Montgomery missing nearly all of camp. If the Bears were easing him back in, we could see his usage increase in Week 2. Offseason reports were extremely positive about Montgomery after he slimmed down and worked on his speed.

The Bears are 4.5-point home favorites against the same Giants defense that gave up 5.9 YPC and 113 rushing yards to Benny Snell last week. Given the bargain pricing, Montgomery is a nice pivot off of Jonathan Taylor who could be on 30 times as many rosters. If we could imagine playing out this slate 30 times, Montgomery would outscore Taylor at least a handful of times making that 30-to-1 rostered number stand out as a real opportunity.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia ($6,800 — 1%)

Sanders was pegged as a breakout star all offseason with Philadelphia media insiders predicting 2,000 total yards for the talented second-year back. After Sanders missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, he has become a forgotten man with everyone moving on to Taylor and others. Assuming Sanders is good to go this weekend (he has practiced in full), he is a contrarian option with elite upside.

Other Running Backs to Consider

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas ($5,200 — 13%)

Each of the Cowboys starting wide receivers is underpriced in a prime matchup against the Falcons. Amari Cooper ($7,000) and Michael Gallup ($6,000) should be $500-$1,000 more and come with proven upside. Lamb has not done it yet but his near-minimum price and big-play ability make him my favorite of the three this week. The injury to Blake Jarwin leaves Lamb as the clear top target in the middle of the field. He should see 8+ targets this week against the Falcons and is due to break off a long catch and run soon.

CeeDee Lamb was good in Week 1. But he didn't make many plays after the catch.

I expect that to change in Week 2. pic.twitter.com/SYIG4WYxiV

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) September 17, 2020

Davante Adams, Green Bay ($8,600 — 29%)

Adams is going to be far and away the most popular receiver on the slate. Understandable after he caught 14 passes for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. We know that Adams is an elite talent and is going to be peppered with targets by Rodgers. The Lions are in a bad way at cornerback but should have Jeff Okudah back. Playing at less than 100% after missing much of camp and facing one of the league’s best wide receivers could make for a tough debut for Okudah.

Detroit Lions cornerback reality:

Sept. 5: Lions have seven healthy corners (Trufant, Okudah, Oruwariye, Ford, Roberts, McRae, Coleman).

Sept. 15: Ford, Coleman on IR; Okudah, Trufant have hamstring injuries. Healthy corners: Oruwariye, Roberts, McRae, potential corner TBD.

— Michael Rothstein (@mikerothstein) September 15, 2020

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay ($7,400 — 7%)

Evans is always an ideal GPP play and projects especially well this week. His down weeks scare many away but in these larger-field tournaments, our primary focus should be on upside. Evans’ is nearly unmatched. Last season, he had 180+ receiving yards and at least one touchdown in 23% of his games. Throughout his career, he has had some of his biggest games coming off of down weeks. For example, last season averaged three catches for 45 yards the first two weeks of the season. In Week 3, he came out and posted a monster 8-190-3 line. With Chris Godwin likely out and facing a bad Carolina defense, Evans has as much upside as any wide receiver on the slate.

#bucs WR Mike Evans (hamstring) was limited for the second day in a row but is feeling much better.#WR Chris Godwin (concussion) didn’t practice for the second straight day.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) September 17, 2020

D.J. Moore, Carolina ($6,800 — 4%)

Tampa Bay was just about the only team that held Christian McCaffrey in check last season. In two games, he averaged 34 rushing yards and 21 rushing yards. The Buccaneers stout run defense forces teams to pass more than they are accustomed to. In an early-season matchup in 2019, Cam Newton threw 51 passes for the Panthers against Tampa Bay. If we assume Carolina will be forced into a pass-heavy game script, Moore should see a bunch of targets. He averaged 8 catches for 81 yards last season in two games against the Bucs.

As mentioned above, Tampa Bay stacks are extremely attractive. Running it back with Moore is a strong play. He is affordable and if the game shoots out, odds are good Moore will have a big week.

Scott Miller, Tampa Bay ($5.200 — 1%)

If we are going to play a lot of the chalky running backs, we will want to find some ways to differentiate our rosters from the pack. Miller is one of the low-priced, low-rostered young wide receivers who allows us to fit those top running backs in.

Miller earned rave reviews in camp and has already formed a strong rapport with Brady. In Week 1, he was second on the team in receptions (5) and receiving yards (73) behind only Chris Godwin. With Godwin looking doubtful, the door is open for Miller to see even more targets. In addition to being a potentially high-volume pass catcher in the slot, Miller is also much more of a big-play threat than recognized by the general public. He ran a 4.36 in the forty-yard dash coming out of Bowling Green a couple of years ago.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver ($5,300 — 1%)

The hype and DFS interest in Jeudy cratered after he had a couple of drops in Week 1. The two drops and tough matchup will keep the crowd off of Jeudy and present us with a real opportunity. From a game theory perspective, is CeeDee Lamb 13X more likely to have a big fantasy week than Jeudy?

Drew Lock defended his WR, Jerry Jeudy, with passion today.

"Yeah, he had some drops, but let's go out here next week and keep getting better. That's just not Jerry Jeudy. That's not a Jerry Jeudy thing to do.” pic.twitter.com/VSizbrYbJN

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) September 16, 2020

When we are looking to “show up at the party early” with top young players, these are the types of spots we are looking for. Jeudy checks all the boxes. He is inexpensive, allowing us to load up at other positions. He is unlikely to be popular, allowing us to roster some chalkier options at other positions while still building unique rosters. He is an elite talent, which means he has the potential to stake his claim as a future star with a big performance.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore ($7,500 —- 14%)

One of the crazier stats that from 2019 was how few snaps Andrews played last season (while still putting up elite fantasy numbers). He finished third at his own position in snaps for Baltimore (behind both Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst). Andrews never played more than 58% of the snaps in any game and only topped 53% one time. In Week 1, Andrews played 71% of the snaps. That’s a significant leap in playing time.

If Andrews was able to rack up 852 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns playing less than half the snaps, what might he be able to do playing a fuller complement of snaps? We got a glimpse last week when he had 5 catches for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns. In what should be a more competitive game against Houston, Andrews should again have a big day. He is worth paying up for despite the price tag and relatively chalky status.

Chris Herndon, Jets ($5,100 — 11%)

The Jets could be in for a long season and the Week 2 matchup against the 49ers will be an uphill battle. It would be understandable if we mostly ignored this offense in fantasy and many will. Chris Herndon is the one player who is worth considering given his price tag and lack of competition for targets. Herndon saw 20% of the targets in Week 1 but that was with Jamison Crowder leading the way with 37% of the targets. Crowder is questionable and looks unlikely to play on Sunday after suffering a hamstring injury in practice on Wednesday. Le’Veon Bell and Denzel Mims are already on IR with hamstring injuries, which means the Jets are running out of viable pass-catching options. If Crowder does end up missing, Herndon could end up with a massive target share (30-40%) almost by default.

Wouldn't play Crowder even if active unless he gets a full practice in tomorrow and highly doubt that happens. Josh Adams could have a sneaky PPR floor here, and of course, Herndon should get targets before garbage time this week! Mostly play the SF D https://t.co/SjhnFpVGyL

— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) September 17, 2020

Other Tight Ends to Consider

Defenses to Consider