This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup:
WR Allen Robinson (CHI vs DET) vs Desmond Trufant
Things finally started to look right for Robinson last week with Robinson finding the end zone and having Mitchell Trubisky back at quarterback. When these teams met back in week 1, Robinson caught 5 passes for 74 yards and was very effective on the outside. The Lions are coming off an embarrassing Thanksgiving Day loss to Houston where they were routinely torched on the outside by Will Fuller. Trubisky is no Deshaun Watson but he should be able to take advantage of Trufant on the outside and Robinson should see a high volume of targets this week.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs JAX) vs Luq Barcoo
We very easily could have put Adam Thielen here as well, but with Thielen just coming off the COVID list it is easy to lean towards Jefferson again. The Jets corners are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 11th most to players lined up on the outside. They have been decimated by injury and Jefferson has been one of the best rookie wide receivers in this stacked class. Chad Beebe is also an option this week against Re Herndon in the slot. Jarvis Landry went off against Herndon and Beebe made up for his muffed punt with a late game winning touchdown last week. The entire Vikings wide receiver group should get a bump this week.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs ARZ) vs Dre Kirkpatrick
This will be a tough week to predict as it could also be Josh Reynolds on Kirkpatrick with Kupp primarily playing in the slot. However, Kirkpatrick has proven to be the weakest corner for the Cardinals and with Patrick Peterson likely to shadow Robert Woods Jared Goff could be looking elsewhere. Peterson has locked down DK Metcalf this season and could easily give the same treatment to Woods who lines up all over the field. The numbers from last season point to the entire Rams receiving group getting a bump this week, but these teams are playing much differently than a season ago. If you have to bet on a Rams receiver this week look for Kupp to do the most damage.
WR Jakeem Grant (MIA vs CIN) vs LeShaun Sims
The Miami Dolphins continue to surprise everyone this season in what looks like a complete turnaround from last year. Grant is a deep pick this week but has a great matchup against the struggling Sims. Parker will have William Jackson III follow him across the field and that should open things up for Grant and Mike Gesicki against the rest of the struggling Bengals defense. If Tua is back this week, Grant can be downgraded slightly, but if Fitzpatrick is back under center it should be all systems go for Grant this week.
WR D.J. Chark (JAX vs MIN) vs Kris Boyd, Cameron Dantzler
Chark was ruled out last week with a rib injury but returned to practice in a limited fashion so far this week. It is worth monitoring the injury report this week, but if Chark plays he has one of his best matchups of the season. Even with Mike Glennon at quarterback the combination of Kris Boyd and Cameron Dantzler has not been able to stop anyone on the outside. The Vikings secondary ranks in the bottom 5 of almost every category that matters for defense and Chark has shown big play ability his entire career. Look for a solid performance from whoever lines up on the outside for the Jaguars this week.
WR Hunter Renfrow (LV vs NYJ) vs Arthur Maulet
It has been difficult to trust any Vegas receiver not named Darren Waller this season, but Renfrow has the best matchup of the group. The Jets have been picked on almost every week die to cutting players and all of their Opening Day corners being on the IR. If Derek Carr can get the ball to his receivers this week the entire group should see a bump. The Jets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and the most over the past 8 weeks. With Josh Jacobs a little banged up for the Raiders look for it to be an aerial affair this week.
TE T.J. Hockenson (DET vs CHI):
We will continue to write up Hockenson as long as he continues to produce. He has 9 or more points in every contest so far this year and is averaging 12 per game this season. He is taking on a Bears defense that has allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends and over 15 fantasy points per game. Hockenson burned the Bears for 16.6 fantasy points back in week 1 and has stepped into a big role for the Detroit offense. The tight end position has been very thin outside of Travis Kelce and Hockenson continues to be a top 5 option.
TE Austin Hooper (CLE vs TEN):
He may have only had 2 targets a week ago, but he turned one of those into a touchdown and salvaged his day. The Browns have been a run first team this year but finally seem to be utilizing the play action and finding short and easy completions for Baker Mayfield. The Tennessee defense has allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season and the 9th most fantasy points. The offense has been clicking and Hooper is healthy, he should be a top 10 option for tight ends this week.
Unfavorable Matchup:
WR DeVante Parker (MIA vs CIN) vs William Jackson III
The Bengals defense has not been very good at all this season, outside of Jackson. He has been asked to follow some top receivers this season and has fared very well. He has only been targeted on 14% of his coverage snaps and while the defense ranks near the bottom in points allowed to receivers, Jackson has held outside receivers to the 7th fewest points. There is also the question of who is going to start under center for Miami. Parker has much better chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Tua Tagovailoa could return from injury this week. Look for other options than Parker this week if you have them.
WR Jarvis Landry (CLE vs TEN) vs Desmond King
It would be easy to see Landry’s line from last week and think he finally stepped up and was taking over that receiver group. Unfortunately, it came against Tre Herndon, who is one of the worst slot corners in the league. This week he has a much tougher matchup against a Tennessee defense that has been great against slot receivers. Mix in the struggles of Baker Mayfield and how much the Browns like to run the ball and it is not a good recipe for success for Landry.
WR Julio Jones (ATL vs NO) vs Marhson Lattimore
There are a lot of factors going into the matchup this week. Jones has been dealing with an injury that kept him out all of last week and Lattimore missed their last matchup win an injury back in week 11. Even with a bad hamstring, Jones is an elite wide receiver that requires constant attention. Lattimore has had strong showings against Jones in the past and has yet to allow a touchdown. So, between the hamstring issue and the tough matchup it would be a good week to pivot to Calvin Ridley over Jones.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs NYG) vs James Bradberry
Metcalf is making it very difficult to bet against him not matter who is in coverage as he proved last week against Darius Slay. Bradberry has been great when taking on big receivers and is projected to follow Metcalf across the field. In their previous meeting, Bradberry held Metcalf to a single catch for 17 yards on 3 routes run against him. Bradberry is on a different team and Metcalf has been playing at a much higher level, but it still rates as one of the tougher matchups for any receiver this week. Tyler Lockett is the better start this week with Metcalf drawing the tough coverage.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC vs NE) vs Stephon Gilmore
The Patriots defense has not been as good as years past, but Gilmore continues to lineup against the opposition’s top outside receiver and continues to do well. The last meeting between these 2 came back in 2018 where Gilmore held Allen to 0 catches on 4 targets. Allen has a different quarterback this year in Justin Herbert, but the offense has evolved since Austin Ekeler returned to the lineup. Allen should still be the leading receiver on this team and will see his fair share of targets, but it is going to be much more difficult against Gilmore. He is not a candidate for the bench this week but temper expectations for Allen in this tough matchup
WR Tyler Boyd (CIN vs MIA) vs Nik Needham
Needham is not a household name like the other corners for Miami, but he has more than held his own this season. Couple that with the Bengals not having Joe Burrow and it may be a long day for the entire receiving group. Since the injury to Burrow there is not much fantasy value to any of the Bengals offensive players and they have tough matchups the rest of the way. Boyd has been the most consistent receiver for the Bengals, but he has become unplayable at this point with the rest of the matchups and not having a starting quarterback. Look for other options this week and for the rest of the season.
TE Jared Cook (NO vs ATL):
This has less to do with the matchup and more to do with who is under center for the Saints. Cook has just 8 targets in his last 4 matchups and was shut out against Denver last week. Since Hill has taken over, no team has run the ball more than the Saints at a 60% clip. Cook has had his ups and downs in New Orleans, but he is currently at his lowest point right now. He would see a huge boost if Jameis Winston was under center, but he is droppable at this point with Hill running the show.
TE Noah Fant (DEN vs KC):
We cannot blame him for making the only catch last week with a practice squad quarterback under center, but he has underperformed/been injured all season. He has less than 8 fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 contests and has struggled to stay on the field. He also draws a tough matchup against Kansas City where he had 6.8 points in their meeting earlier this season. Fant is a big and athletic tight end, but the Denver offense has been a mess this season and he is not worth the risk this week.
