The season is a quarter of the way over and we have a massive amount of new information to factor into our dynasty valuations. Injuries, especially at running back, have also reared their ugly head and we need to navigate through either with our depth or short-term fixes. Over the course of the next month, a big key to long-term success will be making honest evaluations of our rosters to determine whether we have real contenders or if we should focus on 2021 and beyond. The injuries at running back and wide receiver (especially the rookies) combined with an impressive crop of 2021 prospects provide a wealth of targets for teams shifting focus toward the future.
In this month’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart, we will detail:
- The crazy fantasy numbers from the top quarterbacks and the impact on dynasty strategy.
- A look at the Top 15 dynasty running backs, both their positives and negatives.
- Winners and losers at wide receiver over the first month.
- Value of 2021 rookie picks and a quick look at how some 2021 draft prospects are faring in the early part of the college football season.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
|
1
|
56
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
50
|
26
|
|
|
3
|
48
|
25
|
|
|
4
|
48
|
25
|
|
|
5
|
44
|
23
|
|
|
6
|
38
|
20
|
|
|
7
|
35
|
13
|
|
|
8
|
35
|
13
|
|
|
9
|
30
|
10
|
|
|
10
|
24
|
10
|
|
|
11
|
23
|
7
|
|
|
12
|
21
|
7
|
|
|
13
|
22
|
6
|
|
|
14
|
21
|
6
|
|
|
15
|
21
|
6
|
|
|
16
|
19
|
6
|
|
|
17
|
15
|
6
|
|
|
18
|
21
|
5
|
|
|
19
|
20
|
5
|
|
|
20
|
13
|
5
|
|
|
21
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
22
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
23
|
16
|
4
|
|
|
24
|
14
|
3
|
|
|
25
|
14
|
3
|
|
|
26
|
12
|
2
|
|
|
27
|
12
|
2
|
|
|
28
|
12
|
2
|
|
|
29
|
10
|
2
|
|
|
30
|
6
|
2
|
|
|
31
|
7
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
34
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
35
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
36
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
37
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
38
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
2
|
0
|
Offensive explosion
Scoring and passing numbers are up league-wide and it is leading to some crazy fantasy production at the quarterback position. Some of the stats put up by the top quarterbacks at the quarter-point of the season are stunning:
- Dak Prescott is on pace for 6,760 passing yards and 48 total touchdowns.
- Josh Allen is on pace for over 5,000 passing yards and 60 total touchdowns.
- Russell Wilson is on pace for over 5,000 passing yards and 64 touchdowns.
- Kyler Murray is on pace over 1,060 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns.
Production is up across the board and some of these early-season paces are sure to slow. Still…Wow. It is easier than ever to find a 4,000 passing yard, 30-touchdown quarterback. Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Derek Carr, and Ben Roethlisberger are amongst the passers on pace to best both of those marks. But that is just not enough anymore given the combination of serious rushing production and big passing numbers we are seeing out of the elite young quarterbacks (and Russell Wilson). In years past, you might have been perfectly happy with Matthew Stafford giving you 21 PPG like he is doing currently. When guys like Dak Prescott and Josh Allen are putting up 35 or 36 PPG, you are now at a substantial weekly disadvantage if you are just getting by with a low-end QB1 like Stafford.
In our big-picture look at the trends and their impact on dynasty strategy, we made the case that the top young quarterbacks were undervalued in start one quarterback leagues. We are now seeing a market correction where the potential of one player giving you a big weekly advantage at the position for a long amount of time is being more properly appreciated. If your league is different, it is worth seeing if you can turn a decent WR2 into one of the top young quarterbacks.
Rookie fast starts
We do have to keep in mind the context that passing offense is up across the lead, but even with that background in mind, the hot starts by Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are notable. Burrow just became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to post three consecutive games with 300+ passing yards. Herbert came up 10 yards short of joining him and is averaging just over 310 passing yards per game to start his NFL career. Both are Top 10 dynasty quarterbacks. You can feel good about having them in your starting lineup today and extremely excited to see if they can take their games to even higher levels in their second or third seasons.
The hot starts for Burrow and Herbert have raised the bar for Tua Tagovailoa whenever he makes his 2020 debut.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
55
|
|
|
2
|
54
|
|
|
3
|
48
|
|
|
4
|
48
|
|
|
5
|
44
|
|
|
6
|
43
|
|
|
7
|
42
|
|
|
8
|
42
|
|
|
9
|
38
|
|
|
10
|
35
|
|
|
11
|
35
|
|
|
12
|
32
|
|
|
13
|
32
|
|
|
14
|
25
|
|
|
15
|
24
|
|
|
16
|
DAndre Swift
|
24
|
|
17
|
23
|
|
|
18
|
22
|
|
|
19
|
20
|
|
|
20
|
20
|
|
|
21
|
Melvin Gordon
|
19
|
|
22
|
18
|
|
|
23
|
16
|
|
|
24
|
14
|
|
|
25
|
13
|
|
|
26
|
13
|
|
|
27
|
12
|
|
|
28
|
12
|
|
|
29
|
12
|
|
|
30
|
12
|
|
|
31
|
11
|
|
|
32
|
10
|
|
|
33
|
Darrell Henderson
|
10
|
|
34
|
10
|
|
|
35
|
9
|
|
|
36
|
9
|
|
|
37
|
A.J. Dillon
|
8
|
|
38
|
8
|
|
|
39
|
7
|
|
|
40
|
KeShawn Vaughn
|
7
|
|
41
|
Mark Ingram
|
6
|
|
42
|
LeVeon Bell
|
6
|
|
43
|
6
|
|
|
44
|
6
|
|
|
45
|
6
|
|
|
46
|
Benny Snell
|
6
|
|
47
|
6
|
|
|
48
|
6
|
|
|
49
|
6
|
|
|
50
|
6
|
|
|
51
|
5
|
|
|
52
|
5
|
|
|
53
|
5
|
|
|
54
|
5
|
|
|
55
|
5
|
|
|
56
|
4
|
|
|
57
|
4
|
|
|
58
|
3
|
|
|
59
|
3
|
|
|
60
|
3
|
|
|
61
|
3
|
|
|
62
|
Lamical Perine
|
3
|
|
63
|
3
|
|
|
64
|
2
|
|
|
65
|
2
|
|
|
66
|
2
|
|
|
67
|
2
|
Top 15
There is so much going on with all of the top running backs with young players emerging and stars getting injured, we are going to just roll through the Top 15 with some quick thoughts on each:
Alvin Kamara Off to an insanely hot start that has him on pace for over 2,000 yards, 120 catches, and 28 touchdowns. Will cool off some but is clearly the top guy for 2020. It seems like New Orleans really is planning to go with Taysom Hill in 2021, so the receiving numbers may not project as well in the future. This minor future concern is the only thing keeping Kamara from being the obvious 1.01.
Christian McCaffrey The high ankle sprain knocks his value down a bit in the short-term and maybe even after he comes back. Alvin Kamara had a similar injury last year and was not quite himself even after returning. Still a star and only 24-years old.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire It sounds strange to say about a guy with four games under his belt, but Edwards-Helaire is one of the safest bets at the position for long-term dynasty value. He is just 21-years old and we have seen enough to feel confident he is going to be the lead back in Kansas City at least through the end of his rookie deal (five years). He should put up at least low-end RB1 numbers (currently the RB12 in PPR) in that role. In five years, many of the other top backs will be approaching 30-years old. We do not know the ceiling yet, which makes it understandable if some would prefer one of the backs who has already put together some 300+ point fantasy seasons.
Ezekiel Elliott Don’t look now but Elliott is on pace for 92 receptions. Elliott’s consistency as a fantasy producer is incredible. He is again averaging a bit over 20 PPG, which is where he was each of his previous four seasons. The only real question is how long he can keep it up. Still just 25-years old but already has 1,451 touches (in 60 career games).
Dalvin Cook Cook picked up right where he left off last season, averaging over 22 PPG at the quarter-point of the season. His big new contract and the emergence of Justin Jefferson (to keep opposing defenses honest) also add to his value.
Josh Jacobs On pace for 52 receptions, which checks off the biggest question mark regarding his dynasty value. The Raiders offensive line is beaten up and aging at key spots, which could limit his upside in the short-term.
Jonathan Taylor After his breakout performance in Week 2, Taylor was right up there with McCaffrey and Kamara in terms of dynasty value. The last few weeks have caused his stock to drop slightly. He is not getting true workhorse usage and has averaged just 1.3 receptions per game since being named the starter.
Jonathan Taylor's percentage of team running back rushes and target share marks over the last three weeks:
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 5, 2020
Week 2: 74.3%, 8.0%
Week 3: 44.8%, 4.0%
Week 4: 48.6%, 3.6%
Saquon Barkley Barkley will not come cheap in trade but can be had in most leagues for one of the players above, especially if Barkley is on a contender. Barkley should be a Top 5 pick in 2021 dynasty startups but few are going to want to trade a key 2020 contributor for a player out the rest of the season.
Miles Sanders The usage has been encouraging but this beat up Philadelphia offense is not what we expected. Your level of confidence in Sanders should be influenced by your long-term confidence in Carson Wentz.
Aaron Jones One of the toughest players to rank. He is going to return a ton of value in 2020 (something like 12 PPG above replacement value), which is a big part of the equation. His future beyond this year is so uncertain, however. It is so rare for a back to leave in free agency and keep having big success. If Jones gets an extension, he belongs in the top five at the position.
Joe Mixon More of a low-end RB1 this season but plenty of upside if the Bengals can improve the offensive line in the offseason and Burrow continues to improve.
Nick Chubb Was off to a hot start but stuck in a committee the next few years. The recent Hunt extension (h/t to @Gbunnny and @Big4DawgDFS). Sounds like he could miss the next month with a knee injury, which knocks his value down at least a few points.
#Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said RB Nick Chubb has MCL injury, he'll go on IR, it'll be a several week injury, but we do expect to have him this year
— Nate Ulrich (@ByNateUlrich) October 5, 2020
Derrick Henry The talk of his getting more usage as a receiver has not materialized but Henry is averaging 27.3 carries per game.
Kareem Hunt Value gets a short-term boost with the Chubb injury. Even backing up Chubb, Hunt has outscored him and is a Top 10 running back through four weeks. Can we have two running backs in the same backfield putting up big fantasy numbers? It has happened in the past (New Orleans for example) but probably limits his medium-term upside.
Antonio Gibson You can make a strong rookie RB3 case for a number of guys. However, at this point, Gibson has the best combination of production and long-term upside. He is the RB16 and trending in a positive direction. He had 6.4 points in Week 1, 13.2 in Week 2, 14.0 in Week 3, and then 22.8 in Week 4. With his receiving upside, the PPR upside is immense if he hits.
RB2s and RB3s to Monitor
J.K. Dobbins There was a lot of optimism in camp and after a two-touchdown debut. The past three weeks have been very discouraging, however. Gus Edwards is playing a surprisingly large role in the offense, making this a three-man committee. Plus, Baltimore has only completed a total of nine passes to the running backs, giving us a real reason to wonder about the PPR upside of this group.
Baltimore RB snaps yesterday:
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 5, 2020
Mark Ingram 14
JK Dobbins 19
Gus Edwards 22
Mark Ingram has yet to have more than 11 touches in a game this year.
He got a TD yesterday and still only managed 10pts. If you can’t get a huge game out of him when BAL is a 2 TD fave when can you?
Chris Carson If Carson ends up getting an extension in Seattle, we may end up looking back at the past year as a buy-low window. Carson is the RB5 and the clear lead back in arguably the league’s best offense. He has a lot going for him in the short term. The future is cloudy beyond 2020, so there is plenty of downside risk as well.
James Robinson Rookie off to a very fast start. The question will be whether he can do enough to lock down the starting job over the long term. The schedule remains soft for the next few weeks and then gets much more difficult down the stretch. If looking to sell high, you should have at least a few more weeks.
Austin Ekeler A serious injury halted Ekeler’s momentum but his value was on the rise with the emergence of Justin Herbert. Locked into a long-term deal with the Chargers, Ekeler is a great target for rebuilding teams (especially if the injury ends up season-ending).
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
45
|
|
|
2
|
45
|
|
|
3
|
42
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
38
|
|
|
7
|
36
|
|
|
8
|
36
|
|
|
9
|
33
|
|
|
10
|
32
|
|
|
11
|
30
|
|
|
12
|
30
|
|
|
13
|
D.J. Moore
|
30
|
|
14
|
28
|
|
|
15
|
28
|
|
|
16
|
28
|
|
|
17
|
Odell Beckham
|
28
|
|
18
|
26
|
|
|
19
|
26
|
|
|
20
|
D.J. Chark
|
24
|
|
21
|
Allen Robinson
|
24
|
|
22
|
22
|
|
|
23
|
21
|
|
|
24
|
21
|
|
|
25
|
21
|
|
|
26
|
20
|
|
|
27
|
20
|
|
|
28
|
17
|
|
|
29
|
17
|
|
|
30
|
17
|
|
|
31
|
17
|
|
|
32
|
16
|
|
|
33
|
Laviska Shenault
|
16
|
|
34
|
Will Fuller
|
16
|
|
35
|
16
|
|
|
36
|
Henry Ruggs
|
15
|
|
37
|
15
|
|
|
38
|
14
|
|
|
39
|
14
|
|
|
40
|
13
|
|
|
41
|
13
|
|
|
42
|
12
|
|
|
43
|
Robby Anderson
|
12
|
|
44
|
12
|
|
|
45
|
9
|
|
|
46
|
9
|
|
|
47
|
Michael Pittman
|
9
|
|
48
|
9
|
|
|
49
|
NKeal Harry
|
9
|
|
50
|
8
|
|
|
51
|
7
|
|
|
52
|
7
|
|
|
53
|
7
|
|
|
54
|
7
|
|
|
55
|
7
|
|
|
56
|
Mecole Hardman
|
7
|
|
57
|
7
|
|
|
58
|
TreQuan Smith
|
7
|
|
59
|
K.J. Hamler
|
6
|
|
60
|
6
|
|
|
61
|
6
|
|
|
62
|
6
|
|
|
63
|
6
|
|
|
64
|
6
|
|
|
65
|
Gabriel Davis
|
6
|
|
66
|
5
|
|
|
67
|
5
|
|
|
68
|
5
|
|
|
69
|
5
|
|
|
70
|
5
|
|
|
71
|
5
|
|
|
72
|
5
|
|
|
73
|
Keelan Cole
|
5
|
|
74
|
5
|
|
|
75
|
5
|
|
|
76
|
4
|
|
|
77
|
4
|
|
|
78
|
4
|
|
|
79
|
Marvin Jones
|
4
|
|
80
|
Scott Miller
|
4
|
|
81
|
4
|
|
|
82
|
3
|
|
|
83
|
3
|
|
|
84
|
2
|
|
|
85
|
2
|
|
|
86
|
2
|
|
|
87
|
2
|
Let's take a look at some of the wide receivers whose trade value has risen or fallen the most after one month of play.
Risers
At age 22, DK Metcalf is putting up high-end WR1 numbers. He is averaging just over 100 receiving yards per game and has scored a touchdown every single week.
Calvin Ridley has been the NFL’s best wide receiver. He turns 27-years old in a couple of months so he is not the typical third-year wide receiver but still compares favorably to the other top wide receivers in the same general age range (Hopkins, Evans, Cooper, Diggs, etc.).
CeeDee Lamb is putting up Top 20 wide receiver numbers right out of the gate as a 21-year old rookie. We probably have to take the numbers with a grain of salt given the ridiculous pace of Dak Prescott (in part due to some very favorable game scripts). However, if Lamb does keep up his current pace and puts up 1,200 receiving yards, he will have a good shot of being the overall WR1 by next summer.
Stefon Diggs has been fantastic in Buffalo. Perhaps even more importantly, Josh Allen looks like a quarterback capable of supporting a high-end WR1.
We think that @StefonDiggs trade worked out. 😉
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 5, 2020
14 had a day: https://t.co/7AR45mVo5t@GabesAuto716 | #BUFvsLV pic.twitter.com/8txTUdk8m5
Tyler Lockett has been productive for years and consistently undervalued. Averaging just under 20 PPG, Lockett is impossible to ignore at this point and is easily a Top 20 dynasty wide receiver.
Justin Jefferson got off to a bit of a slow start in camp after missing some time. He was mostly a non-factor the first couple weeks of the season. Given a shot to start in Week 3, Jefferson exploded onto the scene. Over the last two weeks, he has 278 receiving yards. We are dealing with small sample sizes but Jefferson is doing things rarely seen from any rookie wide receiver.
Tee Higgins The case for targeting Higgins in rookie drafts was his good chance to eventually supplant A.J. Green as Joe Burrow’s top outside target and a hope Burrow would be good. Green looks bad and Higgins may have already passed him by. Over the last two weeks, Higgins has 9 catches for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns. Burrow is on pace for 4,484 passing yards as a rookie, so we also have evidence that this should be a fantasy-friendly offense.
Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins. Good pocket movement to set up completion. #Bengals pic.twitter.com/xPaWDSyDEy
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 5, 2020
Fallers
D.J. Moore has been fine but other young wide receivers have leap-frogged him. He is also being outplayed in the very early going by Robby Anderson. We should probably be starting to get a little bit concerned about his six career touchdowns. Fellow 2018 first-rounder Calvin Ridley has 15 more (21 total), which is one reason Ridley has surpassed Moore in dynasty value.
Michael Gallup is currently fifth on the Cowboys in targets. He is coming off of a 29-receiving yard performance in a game where his quarterback threw for 500 yards. There was a school of thought that Gallup would not be negatively impacted by the addition of CeeDee Lamb but it is hard to believe that at this point.
Injured
There is no fault to be had here but Courtland Sutton, Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Denzel Mims, and Parris Campbell are amongst the players who have slid a little bit due to injuries.
Tight End
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
36
|
|
|
2
|
24
|
|
|
3
|
21
|
|
|
4
|
20
|
|
|
5
|
20
|
|
|
6
|
18
|
|
|
7
|
11
|
|
|
8
|
10
|
|
|
9
|
10
|
|
|
10
|
9
|
|
|
11
|
9
|
|
|
12
|
8
|
|
|
13
|
8
|
|
|
14
|
7
|
|
|
15
|
7
|
|
|
16
|
6
|
|
|
17
|
6
|
|
|
18
|
5
|
|
|
19
|
Irv Smith
|
4
|
|
20
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
3
|
|
|
22
|
3
|
|
|
23
|
3
|
|
|
24
|
3
|
|
|
25
|
3
|
|
|
26
|
3
|
|
|
27
|
3
|
|
|
28
|
3
|
|
|
29
|
3
|
|
|
30
|
3
|
|
|
31
|
2
|
|
|
32
|
2
|
|
|
33
|
2
|
|
|
34
|
2
|
|
|
35
|
2
|
|
|
36
|
2
|
George Kittle has separated from the pack at tight end. There is not another tight end in the game right now capable of putting up a 15-183-1 like Kittle did last night. We should value Kittle like he is a high-end WR1 given how much he has separated from the pack at the position.
#49ers George Kittle caught 15 passes on 15 targets last night against the Eagles.
— Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) October 5, 2020
Since the NFL started tracking targets in 1992, only Kittle and Christian McCaffrey (2019) have had a game with 15 or more receptions while catching 100% of their targets.
Darren Waller has shown that his 90 catch 2019 season was not a fluke. In fact, through four games he is on pace for 116 catches in 2020.
A few of the guys behind him have missed games but it is still notable that 22-year old Noah Fant is the TE4 at the quarter-point of the season. When you think about his age, physical traits, draft pedigree, and early production, it is easy to get excited about Fant.
Dalton Schultz (TE5) and Mo Alie-Cox (TE13) have come almost out of nowhere to become legitimate dynasty assets at tight end. It took some injuries to give them their opportunities but they have taken advantage and looked good doing it.
Robert Tonyan Jr, after last night’s explosion on Monday Night Football, is now the TE2 behind only Travis Kelce. We should take his emergence seriously, especially with the injury to Allen Lazard.
2021 Rookie Picks
|
Pick Area
|
Value
|
Superflex
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Early 1st
|
22
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27
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Mid 1st
|
17
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21
|
|
Late 1st
|
12
|
14
|
|
2nd
|
7
|
8
|
|
3rd
|
4
|
4
|
The 2020 college season is off to at least a partial start and we have a few more data points that can inform how we value our rookie picks. Here are some things worth considering when it comes to 2021 rookie picks:
Special tight end class
Does your league have special scoring that makes tight ends more valuable than in a standard league? Many leagues add a Tight End Premium (1.5 PPR, 2.0 PPR, and/or yardage bonuses). If your league is TE-Premium, you should also be adding a bit of a premium to 2021 rookie picks because the 2021 class is shaping up to potentially be very impactful from a fantasy perspective. Either elite players at other positions are going to get pushed down to the late-first round or some of these top tight ends are going to be available late round one. Either way, rookie drafts in these TE-Premium formats are deeper with top fantasy assets than normal leagues.
Kyle Pitts has exploded out of the gates. Through two games, he has 12 catches for 227 yards and 6 touchdowns. I noted in my offseason devy rankings that Pitts was the highest-ranked I’ve had a tight end in my five years of writing about college players. He is a future NFL fantasy star and could end up carrying especially heavy dynasty value in leagues which place a heavy premium on tight end production.
Brevin Jordan (15-212-3 through three games) is also off to a huge start. There are a number of strong tight end prospects in the Big 10 who will get started later this month, with Pat Freiermuth the highest-rated.
Extra Premium on top few picks in Superflex
As you will notice above, 2021 picks expected to be early are worth more of a premium in Superflex leagues. It is hard to imagine anyone other than Trevor Lawrence being the Superflex 1.01 next spring and he is likely to instantly be valued as a Top 20 overall player. Justin Fields may not be too far behind him. Trey Lance and Kyle Trask could also be early rookie picks.
Waddle confirming elite status
This is another loaded wide receiver class, though many of the top prospects have either opted out or do not play for another few weeks. In their absence, Jaylen Waddle has taken advantage of the spotlight with back-to-back huge games.
A couple of years ago, I comped Waddle to Tyreek Hill and noted:
It is interesting to consider what Waddle's numbers would have been had he gone to Purdue and been featured in the same way Rondale Moore was. The two have similar skill sets and both looked fantastic as true freshmen. The big difference was Waddle had to share the field with four other more experienced pass-catchers who have been or will be drafted highly. I don't see much of a gap between the two as prospects, which makes Waddle a fantastic target going off the board at least a round after Moore.
