Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports

Join the Footballguys Daily Update

Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.

Subscribe Now

This article is about a 15-minute read.

This is the first of two August Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles. Look for a second article in the middle of the month once we start getting reports from padded practices. Given the unique nature of this offseason and the delayed start to padded practices, we do not have a huge amount of news to sort through as the month of August starts. Plus, Jeff Tefertiller did a great job last week of breaking down all of the latest dynasty news. The mid-month update will be all about interpreting the latest news and its impact on dynasty values. In this early-August article, we will instead focus on bigger-picture issues. First, we will talk about strategies to win in what could be a crazy season and identify some players who could have increased value in 2020. Second, we will talk a bit more about how to think about dynasty player values and apply the process to some of the toughest to rank players. We'll do a deep dive on Clyde Edwards-Helaire to try to explain our process for trying to "put a number on" player values.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Quarterback

Valuing the top rookies

The consensus view seems to be that both Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are unlikely to see the field early this season. There are some special circumstances this year with no OTAs or preseason games and Tagovailoa coming off of an injury. Despite these factors, do not be surprised if both Tagovialoa and Herbert are in the starting lineup earlier than expected. History says that very highly-drafted quarterbacks very rarely sit on the bench for long.

In the last 11 years, 15 of the 16 quarterbacks drafted in the Top 6 were starting by Week 5. The only exception going back all the way to 2009 was Jared Goff, who got his first start in Week 11. Overall, these 16 quarterbacks first start on average came in Week 2.

What does this mean for dynasty purposes?

We should get a long look at both Tagovailoa and Herbert. In recent years, we have seen that as long as a rookie quarterback doesn’t fall on his face, his Superflex dynasty value tends to increase from Year 1 to Year 2. Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Drew Lock each saw their dynasty trade value basically double over the past 12 months. There is a real opportunity for Tagovailoa, Herbert, and Joe Burrow to move up the rankings over the next few months.

2020 Quarterback Targets

On top of the typical injuries, we also have to worry about players getting sick and missing time. In 2020, we should be placing an extra premium on having strong depth pieces who can step in and keep our teams competitive for a few weeks even if we lose a couple of starters.

In non-Superflex leagues, that means trying to make sure you have three viable starting options. It is worth rostering even a lower-level starter to have that third option. Players like Nick Foles and Derek Carr could have a bit more value than normal.

In Superflex leagues, it makes sense to be more methodical in trying to stash top backups. Players like Nick Mullens, Kyle Allen, and Jacoby Brissett are more likely to see the field than normal and we are more likely to need to break the emergency glass when the normal injuries and bye weeks collide with guys missing games due to getting sick.

Running Back

Put a number on it

Running back is the toughest position to accurately quantify long-term player values. Opportunity, in the form of touches, is both more important and harder to predict. However, just because something is difficult does not mean we should give up or just wave our hands in the air. Most things really worth doing are difficult and where some effort can help us separate from the crowd. Even if we cannot predict future fantasy production with a lot of accuracy, we can still earn insights by trying to thing identify and properly weight various realistic outcomes for a player’s career.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the art of dynasty valuation

Does Damien Williams opting out of the 2020 season have any impact on how we should value Clyde Edwards-Helaire in dynasty?

In my view, it definitely should, and having a mental framework to try to put a number on it makes us better dynasty players. The method used here to try to accurately value players is to break their projected dynasty value into two separate numbers:

1. Three-Year Production. First, we attempt to quantify how much actual fantasy production a player is likely to provide over the next three seasons. The easiest way to do this is to view fantasy production through the lens of seasonal points per game above replacement (PPGAR). Put simply, if replacement-level production in 2019 ass 12 PPG and our WR produced 19 PPG, we got 7 points of production from him that season.

2. Remaining Trade Value. Second, we want to make our best guess of what a player’s dynasty value will look at after the three-year window. So if we have a 24-year old wide receiver, we try to predict what his dynasty trade value will be three years from now when he is 27-years old. There is plenty of guesswork involved here but just the thought processes involved in trying to quantify something like this can help us really hone in on a player’s true long-term value.

A closer look at Clyde Edwards-Helaire and quantifying dynasty values

We can project a player’s fantasy medium-term production over three seasons with a decent amount of certainty for NFL veterans who have given us multiple seasons of data points to work with. It is much harder to make projections for a rookie because the realistic range of outcomes is much wider. Still, we can gain insights by thinking through what the player’s value might look like given various scenarios and then trying to weight the likelihood of each. We are going to go deep on Edwards-Helaire to illustrate how we want to visualize values when we attempt to put a number on it.

The first part of our valuation assessment is trying to figure out how much fantasy production we should expect from Edwards-Helaire over the next three seasons. We can get a better idea of what the range of outcomes might look like by looking back at the 2017 rookie running back class and figuring out how much fantasy value each has returned over the last three years. Here are the five 2017 running backs drafted in the top 75 overall, with their total PPGAR production in their first three seasons in parentheses:

• Christian McCaffrey (36)
• Alvin Kamara (30)
• Leonard Fournette (19)
• Dalvin Cook (17)
• Joe Mixon (16)

The best way to try to put a number on Edwards-Helaire's current dynasty value is to break it down into three different realistic outcomes:

1. Best case scenario: Our realistic best-case scenario with Edwards-Helaire is that he gives us 30+ points of value in his first three seasons like McCaffrey and Kamara have. His PPR upside in the Chiefs' high-scoring offense makes this one of the most realistic possible outcomes. Edwards-Helaire is going in the first round of redrafts already and if he produces like a typical first-round redraft pick the next three seasons, we should get a ton of medium-term production.

In this scenario, not only do we get 30 points worth of value over three years, but we also have an extremely valuable player on our roster at the end of three years. Edwards-Helaire just turned 21 in April. Three years from now, he will be 24-years old and Patrick Mahomes II isn’t going anywhere. In our best-case scenario, Edwards-Helaire is going to be worth 50+ points still in 2023. In this realistic best-case scenario, we have CEH giving us a value of 80+ (30+ over the next three years plus a remaining value three years from now of 50+).

2. Base scenario: In terms of a realistic outcome kind of right down the middle, we would project getting like 15-20 PPGAR from Edwards-Helaire over the next three years like Fournette, Cook, and Mixon gave us over their first three years. In this scenario, expect a 24-year old Edwards-Helaire to be valued similarly to how Cook and Mixon are now (35-40)

Under this base case, Edwards-Helaire would have a total value of 50-60.

3.Worst-case scenario: When it comes to rookies, we have to consider the bust factor. Edwards-Helaire having a tough time transitioning to the NFL and completely failing to meet expectations is within the realistic range of outcomes.

Under the worst-case scenario, Edwards-Helaire would end up being worth 15 or less.

CEH: Adding it all up

We should base our current dynasty valuation of Edwards-Helaire on a weighted average of how likely we think each of the above scenarios is. For example, if we weight each equally, we should value CEH in the 40-50 range today. If we think it is more likely to be a star than to be a complete bust, maybe that number is even higher and we try to go get him even at his increased price.

The goal here is not necessarily to try to come up with an exact number that we treat as gospel but to help us wrap our minds around the idea of quantifying player values in a systematic and generally accurate way that will help us win our dynasty leagues.

James Conner is rising

Conner’s value dipped in the lead up to the draft. He could typically be had for an early-2nd round rookie pick. However, the Steelers passed on both Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins in the mid-2nd round. Conner’s value has slowly been creeping back up since. The difficult part comes in with projecting beyond this season. Conner is set to hit free agency, the Steelers do not have a lot of cap space, and he does not have any of the special traits that would guarantee him the lead role elsewhere.

Conner’s redraft ADP continues to creep up and it would not be a surprise if he ends up a consensus second-round pick by late August. If so, his short-term value would be high enough to feel like we do not have to get much from him beyond the next couple of seasons to justify a valuation in the 12-20 range.

Wide Receiver

Rookies undervalued?

Based on what I am seeing in trades, startup auction ADP, and dynasty auction values, the top rookie wide receivers all look undervalued. Looking at each of these guys through the range of outcomes lens like we did above for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, and Tee Higgins each stand out as players who are likely to give us a decent amount of production over the next three seasons and also see their trade values increase over that period. These guys are extremely young and have enough talent to weigh the odds more towards the best-case scenarios and less towards the risk of them busting.

COVID-19 and WR Depth

Based on what we are seeing right now in Major League Baseball, it is fair to assume that there are going to be some bumps in the road this NFL season. On top of all the normal injuries, we should expect there will be players getting sick and missing time. Depth is going to be important at every position but wide receiver depth is going to be especially important this season. When we look at our dynasty rosters, we may not think as much about our WR4, WR5, WR6, etc. However, we should focus our attention over the next month on really beefing up our top backup options. We are probably going to be counting on these guys in our starting lineups more than normal, and the deepest dynasty rosters are the ones who will best be able to weather the storm.

Veterans like Marvin Jones, Sterling Shepards, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Emmanuel Sanders, and the like might not be the most exciting guys but having solid options like these on deck is going to be key in 2020.

Tight End

COVID-19 and Depth

Tight end is another position where we should be focused on building up as much depth as possible over the next month. The injury rate is already high at the tight end position because the position is so physical. As guys who are going to be lined up on the line of scrimmage every day in practice and in games, tight ends are probably at an increased risk of getting sick.

In 2020, it probably makes sense to use those TE3 and TE4 spots on productive veterans as opposed to stashing rookie lottery tickets. Tyler Eifert, Eric Ebron, and Jack Doyle are almost free in most leagues right now but are capable of giving you solid starting production if you lose your top options at some point.

2021 Rookie Picks

As a big college football fan, I have been preparing myself mentally for the possibility we do not have a season. Should we adjust the value of 2021 rookie picks if the 2020 college season gets canceled (or is played without most of the top pro prospects)?

In theory, if the NFL has less information to work with, there are going to be more early-round busts and more late-round steals. The quantity over quality approach may more sense in this context. You rarely regret stockpiling 2nd round rookie picks. If we are guessing even more than usual about rookies next spring, that may be especially true.