We are going to analyze the latest information and provide the context you need to prepare for your upcoming drafts. The goal is to help you figure out who to target and when to target them in your drafts this weekend.
While most typical season-long leagues won't draft for a couple of weeks, many FFPC/FPC drafts will be drafting this weekend. It is also a great time to get active in best-ball drafts now. In this Beginner’s Guide to best ball drafts, we lay out all of the basics of the format and include links to the many different places one can play best-ball for anyone who is not familiar with the basics. The best ball options have expanded in recent months. Underdog Fantasy and DraftKings have both launched new season-long best ball products featuring both normal 12-team leagues and also some massive tournaments with gigantic guaranteed prize pools.
Whether you are entering an early draft, having fun with best-ball leagues, or just want to get an early start on your research for your draft later this month, there is a lot of news and ADP movement to discuss.
Our topics this week include:
- Taking Advantage of Early Draft Bargains
- Having a CEH Plan
- Washington RB Fallout
- The Patriots Backfield
- Rookies Wide Receivers Rising
1. Taking Advantage of Early Draft Bargains
ADP always looks much different in early August than it does by the time we reach the end of the month. Some of the changes are impossible to predict. However, there are some players whose ADP is very likely to rise in the coming weeks. One of the benefits of doing some early drafts is the ability to nab these early bargains before the crowd catches up. In this first section, we will predict some players who are cheaper now than they will be in a few weeks.
James Conner rising
James Conner’s ADP has been rising slowly for a couple of weeks but he still remains a major bargain in most drafts. We have early signs that Ben Roethlisberger’s recovery from elbow surgery is on track and there have not been any setbacks. He has been able to make all the throws early in camp and Mike Tomlin noted last week that Roethlisberger’s “velocity was excellent.” Confirmation of Roethlisberger’s health is a positive for the entire Steelers offense. We have also had some rather emphatic statements recently from Tomlin and offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner about Conner being the “feature runner” and a "three-down back." Add it all up and Conner looks like a strong value in the third round. This is a spot where if you are drafting this weekend, you should be able to get a lead back in a strong who is eventually going to rise into the second round at a discount.
Randy Fichtner thinks @JamesConner_ can be a three-down back for the offense. #SteelersCamp
— Teresa Varley (@Teresa_Varley) July 29, 2020
There was also some early speculation that James Conner, a cancer survivor, might consider opting out of the 2020 season. He did not. "I'm going on four years now.,” said Conner of being cancer-free. “Just talking with my doctor, he said you got nothing to worry about as far as your immune system.” So we can cross that minor concern off of our list as well. Overall, Conner presents a strong combination of solid floor and high ceiling in both standard scoring and PPR formats. He is still going off the board behind other backs like Todd Gurley (who is walking with a limp) who are much riskier and have similar upside. The crowd is going to catch up on Conner eventually. He is worth a selection in the Top 25 but still falling to the bottom of the 3rd round. Take advantage if you are drafting this weekend.
A.J. Green in the 6th round?
One of the most obvious bargains in early drafts is A.J. Green. His early 6th round ADP is due to rise. The Footballguys staff went deep on the most undervalued wide receivers this week and Green was a popular choice. Sigmund Bloom summed up the case for Green well:
Green's ADP is similar to last year's during the preseason when we knew he was hurt with an uncertain return to play timeline. This year he is healthy and so far getting rave reviews. Green has never been anything but an elite fantasy wide receiver when he is on the field. Even if he only gives you half of a season because of injuries, if he is producing at a WR1 clip, he is more than worth the cost. Joe Burrow could end up being an upgrade from Andy Dalton as a rookie to elevate Green's already high ceiling.
Green has been healthy for nine months and is impressing his teammates at camp with how explosive he looks. He is more talented than nearly every receiver going in the third round and in an offense that could explode this season. It feels like the stars are potentially aligning for a special season from Green.
New | Those who trained Bengals WR A.J. Green this offseason sensed an edge in his approach. He saw questions about his demise. And he's out to silence that chatter in 2020 https://t.co/gkprzhvzZ8
— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) August 10, 2020
If you are drafting this weekend, you should have Green's name highlighted, underlined, and circled as your target in the 5th or 6th round.
Everyone Loves Terry
Every year there is a player who receives nearly universal love from fantasy analysts but whose ADP does not rise very much until the very end. Last year, it was Chris Godwin. Everyone liked him but he was available in the 5th round early in the offseason and the 4th round in later drafts. He went on to finish as the WR2 overall. McLaurin seems to be on a similar trajectory. While he may not finish quite as high as Godwin, McLaurin has a very high fantasy ceiling and does not carry much risk either. Like Godwin, expect McLaurin to rise into the 4th round by late August. You can often get him later than that in early drafts. McLaurin was the most popular choice in our recent staff survey of the most undervalued wide receivers. Ryan Hester summed up the case nicely:
Sure, his quarterback and offensive situation will be bad. But they were bad last year as well when McLaurin surprised everyone with a rookie year output of 59 catches, 919 yards, and 7 touchdowns. McLaurin has even less proven competition for targets this season, and he has a college connection with Dwayne Haskins from Ohio State. Washington games won't be pretty, but McLaurin will put up a consistent, volume-driven floor with the chance for a ceiling game at any given time due to his explosiveness.
2. Forming a CEH Plan
We have a couple of weeks of ADP data since Damien Williams opted out. Here is what you need to know:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going off the board between 1.05 and 1.10 in nearly every draft.
If you are drafting near the middle of the first round, you should spend some time before your draft thinking about how early you are willing to pull the trigger on Edwards-Helaire. This is one of the biggest and toughest decisions you will have to make in 2020 because he has league-winning upside but comes with more risk than your typical first-round pick. You do not want to be thinking hard about Edwards-Helaire versus Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Davante Adams, or Miles Sanders for the first time while you are on the clock. Stack your board in advance.
Footballguys has gone in-depth on Edwards-Helaire and both the pros and cons are detailed here:
The Repercussions of the Damien Williams Opt-Out https://t.co/V3PfUByOI0 pic.twitter.com/qvaFFXx62k
— Footballguys News (@FBGNews) August 6, 2020
We will not get to see Edwards-Helaire in the preseason, so any nuggets from Chiefs camp will be key to consider. Andy Reid’s former director of pro personnel and close friend Louis Riddick works for ESPN now. He noted he has inside info from Chiefs camp and followed with this note:
#Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be the first overall pick in fantasy drafts this season. I have had some success with taking rookie RB’s 1st overall in the draft in the past 🤔 @saquon ✌ðŸ¾
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) August 9, 2020
3. Washington RB Fallout
One of the biggest stories of the first week of training camp was Derrius Guice getting arrested and then cut by Washington. The door is wide open for a new starter to emerge and everyone is trying to figure out who to target and when.
Here is what we are seeing in drafts since Guice was cut:
- Antonio Gibson is going in the 8th Round
- Adrian Peterson is going in the 10th-11th Round
- Bryce Love is going in the 16th-20th round
Peterson, at age 35, does not have much upside. However, he is in line to lead the backfield in touches yet again. He was solid last season, putting up 1,040 total yards and 5 touchdowns. He should produce similar numbers this season. It is not the most exciting option but if you need a reliable bye week fill-in, Peterson has a higher floor than any running back going off the board in Round 10 or later.
Antonio Gibson is the wild card. An early third-round pick, Gibson is an explosive playmaker in an offense in desperate need of a second difference-maker to pair with Terry McLaurin. Gibson’s explosive dual-threat abilities as an RB-WR hybrid are intriguing but the price tag feels high given the potential risk versus reward. This may be a case where it is not worth chasing the shiny new object unless Gibson’s ADP drops a round or two.
The guy w/ most upside in WSH backfield is Antonio Gibson & he’s who I currently have ranked highest b/c of that. But good chance we see a lot of AP (esp early) & McKissic. And if Bryce Love is healthy-watch out. Don’t mind flyers on any of them but caution on going crazy for any
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) August 9, 2020
4. The Patriots Backfield
The trickiest backfield situation out there right now is New England’s. There is potentially some value here. The Patriots running backs have combined to produce at least 510 fantasy points (PPR) each of the last three seasons. The group is likely to be productive yet again in 2020. There may be a few less receptions to go around but Cam Newton’s legs keeping defenses honest could lead to bigger holes for the running backs. Expect the group to see an increase in YPC.
The latest news on Sony Michel is not encouraging:
Is Sony Michel "destined" to miss the first half of the Patriots' 2020 season? https://t.co/Ex5pqJirSP pic.twitter.com/tyvPlaM5Ki
— NESN (@NESN) August 13, 2020
We have seen ADP flipped upside down over the last few days. Sony Michel had been going in the 8th or 9th round prior to this week. He fell to the 15th in a best ball draft I participated in last night. At some point, the risk may be worth the reward but it is hard to pull the trigger on Michel given the foot injury.
The window to buy low on Damien Harris is starting to close. He has risen from the 14th round to the 12th round in recent days. Even that is probably a couple of rounds too low if we assume Michel starts the season on the PUP.
The situation is further muddied by the recent addition of Lamar Miller. He is going off the board in the 16th-20 round and is worth considering as a lotto ticket in deeper leagues.
Lamar Miller officially signed his Patriots contract last night, per his agent. Here's what he'll bring to New England's backfield: https://t.co/Ny5tX1kKuB pic.twitter.com/7DX4CIkI6L
— NESN (@NESN) August 13, 2020
Uncertainty can create opportunities for those willing to take on the risk. There is some upside here and as long as we do not see the ADP of any of these backs shoot up much further, it is worth taking some shots in the mid-late rounds.
5. Rookies Wide Receivers Rising
A recent trend over the last week is the rising ADP of many rookie wide receivers. The absence of rookie OTAs and preseason games has kept the typical rookie hype to a minimum this season. This is especially true due to a narrative that the abbreviated offseason will greatly increase the degree of difficulty for rookies. While there is definitely some concern about how this will impact the transition, it is worth remembering that the 2020 rookie wide receiver class is considered by many to be one of the most talented in history.
We are already seeing the ADP of some guys rise and others will follow. Let’s take a quick look at some of the biggest recent risers.
Henry Ruggs
Ruggs is exactly the type of player who would normally be a big August riser after making some highlight plays in preseason games. Everyone knows he is fast (official 4.27-forty yard dash at the Combine) but his overall athleticism might be a surprise to more casual observers. Ruggs posted an official vertical jump of 42 inches at the combine. The former basketball star can go get it. While we won’t have preseason highlights to influence ADP, grainy training camp videos might be enough to move the needle in this strange 2020 offseason. Ruggs was already seeing his ADP creep up before videos of catches like this hit the internet.
WATCH: Henry Ruggs makes one-handed touchdown catch at Raiders practice. https://t.co/06MdcOSw7Z pic.twitter.com/rP6CMiyVIf
— 247Sports (@247Sports) August 8, 2020
Ruggs is going to be the Raiders starting Z-receiver and see plenty of snaps in the slot as well. He has as clear a path to emerging as the Raiders WR1 and is a strong upside pick even at his rising ADP (9th round).
Jalen Reagor
Next to Ruggs, Reagor is probably the most explosive wide receiver in this class. He also has a clear path to emerge as his team’s WR1 early in the season. Reagor is not lacking for confidence and is a player who is going to continue to rise up draft boards. In early drafts, you might be able to get a bargain. The hype here is inevitably going to heat up and Reagor is going to be going a couple of rounds higher come the end of the month.
Aaron Moorehead says No. 1 draft pick WR @jalenreagor “has the swag of a big-time receiver” and has “really put things together” in the last couple of weeks.#FlyEaglesFly
— Dave Spadaro (@EaglesInsider) August 13, 2020
Other rookies to target
- Jerry Jeudy is likely to push Courtland Sutton for the starting job. It is hard to justify the current 8-round gap in ADP. Expect that to tighten.
- CeeDee Lamb has a better chance of seeing 90+ targets than many believe. Randall Cobb had 83 out of the slot for the Cowboys last season and Lamb should be an instant upgrade over Cobb.
- Brandon Aiyuk does not get as much hype as the rest of the 1st round wide receivers but he is expected to step into the starting lineup for the 49ers in place of Emmanuel Sanders. Questions about Deebo Samuel’s health could push Aiyuk up the board further.
- Bryan Edwards has been called a “freak talent” by his teammates and might be this year’s Terry McLaurin.