SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions
Update #1 Saturday 12:22 EST:
This article still assumes that Mike Evans is out this week. He has been upgraded to questionable. If he is able to play, we will update lineups as Chris Godwin no longer becomes a great play against a tough Saints defense.
Update #2 Sunday 8:00 AM
With Miles Sanders out, this changes a lot on this slate and how to handle it. Boston Scott will be the highest rostered player on FanDuel this week at just $4,700. The Eagles will only have two running backs healthy in this one with Scott and Corey Clement. They did add Tyler Huntley this week, but that is likely only to fill in as an emergency running back and mostly to fill in for Clement on special teams.
Mike Evans has miraculously gone from Doubtful to Questionable to active in a matter of 24 hours.
So, Josh Jacobs will come out of the roster even though for how great of a spot he is in this week, Gibson and Scott both just on a pure value perspective offer too great of upside.
Below is the current lineup that I will be using, with an expected total of 128.40 which is lower than other lineups using Jackson and McCaffrey. it is taking a bet on DeSean Jackson, but feel he's in a good enough spot to take that chance especially with Sanders out.
- QB Lamar Jackson, Bal, $9,400
- RB Boston Scott, PHI, $4,700
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, $10,000
- WR- DeSean Jackson- PHI, $5,700
- WR Michael Thomas, NO, $8,800
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,000
- TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $5,300
- Flex RB- Antonio Gibson, WAS, $4,600
- TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,200
Here is the optimal lineup coming out of the optimizer with Jackson and McCaffrey selected.
- QB Lamar Jackson, Bal, $9,400
- RB Boston Scott, PHI, $4,700
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, $10,000
- WR- Chris Godwin, TB, $7,700
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $6,400
- TE Rob Gronkowski, TB, $5,500
- Flex RB- Antonio Gibson, WAS, $4,600
- TD Buffalo Bills, $4,700
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Baltimore (vs Cle) – 28.25 points
- San Francisco (vs ARI) – 27 points
- New Orleans (vs TB)- 26.5 points
- Indianapolis (vs Jax) – 26.25 points
- Seattle (vs Atl)- 25.25 points
- Las Vegas (vs Car)- 25 points
Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip
Game Selection- Head to Head over 50/50’s?
If you’ve been a reader of this article for the last several years, you know how this tip goes, but it is an important one to touch on each Week 1, as far too often we hear how multi-entry 50/50 cut lines are higher than even the minimum cash lines for GPP’s. The real benefit of head to heads is bankroll management. Most 50/50 or double up contests especially the big one’s are going to have a similar cash line across the board. What this ultimately means is that your lineup is either going to win everything or lose everything, so if you are in the 49th percentile of lineups you will lose 100% of your entries for those contests. Conversely if you have a large enough sample size on head to heads you will only lose maybe 5-10% of your bankroll. From a sample size standpoint, my recommendation is to have at least 10-20 head to heads even if that means you’re playing $1 games.
If you are going to do anything to help your ROI this year, start tracking your opponents. Create a spreadsheet or a piece of paper and really evaluate the rosters of the people that you are facing. The one piece of advice is that people do not spend enough time evaluating who they are facing, but instead just blindly enter contests. The one thing is that don’t just look at the amount of points your opponent scores, but instead look at the roster construction. If it is a solid construction you may not want to play that opponent each week and have to rely on a coin flip. Instead, try to find people who build fundamentally different rosters than you, maybe someone who makes mistakes and doesn’t play the top owned players.
If you blindly enter head to heads, or do not want to have a large enough sample size, the next best contest is to find the biggest single entry 50/50 that you can find
Situations to Watch:
San Francisco and Arizona look like the game will be a game-time decision due to air quality. First and foremost if you live in the area, we hope you stay safe and wish you the best. Even if the game does play, it is difficult in cash to know how this will impact this game as one would think it will be lower paced and potentially lower scoring with more players having to play fewer snaps than normal.
What to do at Quarterback?
Quarterback is always a tricky spot especially when it comes to the decision for each quarterback. Let’s make the case for each of the quarterbacks that should be within cash consideration at varying price points.
Lamar Jackson- You can never go wrong with Lamar Jackson, but with him facing the Browns only adds to his potential upside. At $9,400, he’s going to take up a large portion of your salary, but Jackson offers a unique upside to the position. The Browns in the offseason made some questionable moves at the linebacker position letting Christian Kirksey and Joe Schobert depart to other teams which creates an even bigger hole to a team that could not stop the run last season. Jackson ran for 169 yards in the teams two matchups last season and is now facing one of the weakest linebacking units in the NFL.
Cam Newton- Cam Newton is the value play on this slate at just $7,300. A lot of questions surrounding how New England is going to move the ball particularly outside of Julian Edelman as they have one of the weaker wide receiver units in the NFL. What this should do is potentially open up opportunities for Newton to take the game in his own hands and run the ball like we have seen from prior years. It is a risky play as this could be a low scoring game in general, but if you’re looking for an upside quarterback Newton certainly fits that mold and provides significant savings to spend up elsewhere.
Carson Wentz- Wentz is the safe play on this slate as he provides the balance between savings as he is priced at just $7,700 and still with the upside needed to have a big game against Washington. In their two meetings last season Wentz threw for six touchdowns, and Washington has since let Quinton Dunbar who was their best corner last season depart to Seattle this offseason. Wentz’ should have an upgraded cast compared to last year where Greg Ward Jr. was his top receiving threat as the team added Jaelen Reagor and gets DeSean Jackson back after he missed most of last season due to injury. Add in Miles Sanders with a full time role and this becomes a somewhat dangerous Eagles offense that can beat you in a number of different ways.
Injury Unlocks Opportunity?
Mike Evans appears like he will miss this week as he has been downgraded to Doubtful on Friday with a hamstring injury that kept him out of practice this week. This should make Chris Godwin one of the safer cash game plays of the week, but also will likely increase Rob Gronkowski’s role in this offense as Brady will look to his reliable tight end particularly in the red zone. Scotty Miller will likely see a bump up here, but not sure he is safe enough in cash games this week.
Kenny Golladay is trending towards missing this week with a hamstring injury as he is labeled as doubtful. With no Golladay, the Lions will likely turn to a mixture of Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson as their primary receiving options this week. Hockenson is particularly interesting as he separates himself from the value tight end group of Dallas Goedert, Hayden Hurst, and Jack Doyle. Marvin Jones unfortunately is already priced up at $6,200 and while he is in play, he is not a must play due to a somewhat difficult with likely drawing Kyle Fuller and the focus of Eddie Jackson at safety.
The Eagles as a team are banged up as a team as Alshon Jeffery will miss this game and in a somewhat surprising move, Jaelen Reagor looks like he will play after there was fear that he would miss the first several weeks of this season. DeSean Jackson is in a really good spot going up against a former team and with his history in Week 1.
David Montgomery continues to be questionable this week for their game against the Lions. All signs appear that he will play, and if he does, he is a useful GPP play, but is not in a good enough matchup or a good enough price to be in consideration this week for cash games.
Cash Game Core Plays
Christian McCaffrey- Far too often in past seasons, one of the mistakes on FanDuel that has been learned is not starting the top running back and trying to build a lineup that tries to catch up. While there are concerns about McCaffrey’s usage and whether it will be the same or similar to last year, the price differential between him and Dalvin Cook/Alvin Kamara is not great enough to play either of them in cash.
Josh Jacobs- Last year, the narrative for most of the year was start whoever was playing against Carolina’s run defense, and they bring back most of the same cast as last season with the exception of Tahir Whitehead replacing Luke Kuechly and the return of Kawann Short up the middle. This is still a defense that unless Matt Rhule can pull off a miracle should continue to struggle against the run. Jacobs will look to expand on his role in the second season in which he averaged 98 yards rushing in games in which the Raiders won and they’re three point favorites this week at Carolina. Jacobs should also be more involved in the passing game this season which was something that he did at Alabama and has shown that he is more than capable to play a role out of the backfield.
DeSean Jackson- This one is a bit of a risk as Jackson has long been considered a boom or bust type player, however based on his history if you are going to play him, Week 1 is the time to do so. Throughout his career, DeSean Jackson has averaged 98.6 yards per game in Week 1 which alone is great, but to make matters even better, DeSean Jackson who is a very emotional player averages 98.4 yards per game when facing his former teams. With Alshon Jeffery out and Jaelen Reagor injured, this is the perfect spot for DeSean Jackson this week.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 128.9)
- QB Lamar Jackson- BAL- $9,400
- RB Josh Jacobs- LVR, $8,200
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, $10,000
- WR- DeSean Jackson- PHI, $5,700
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,700
- WR Marquise Brown, BAL, $5,900
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $5,300
- Flex RB- Antonio Gibson, WAS, $4,600
- TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – ALTERNATIVE CASH LINEUP OPTION (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 128.5)
- QB Carson Wentz- PHI, $7,700
- RB Josh Jacobs- LVR, $8,200
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, $10,000
- WR- DeSean Jackson- PHI, $5,700
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,700
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,000
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $5,300
- Flex RB- Antonio Gibson, WAS, $4,600
- TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ Higher Risk No Jackson/McCaffrey(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 129.7)
- QB Cam Newton, NE, $7,300
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC, $7,700
- RB Josh Jacobs- LVR, $8,200
- WR- Davante Adams- GB, $8,000
- WR Chris Godwin- TB, $7,700
- WR DK Metcalf- SEA, $6,400
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $5,300
- Flex RB- Antonio Gibson, WAS, $4,600
- TD Buffalo Bills- $4,700
