The NFL gave us another gift, another glimmer of a semi-normal future on the horizon when they released the 2020 schedule on Thursday. With prudent action in our communities and governments along with a comprehensive plan enacted by the NFL and cooperation from player and team personnel, we can get there! May we see all of these games happen on the days they are scheduled, and maybe even with some fans in the stands! Then we would all be winners. In the meantime, we can take a look at the schedule and project who will get off to the hottest and slowest starts in this week-to-week game.
Fast Starters
Arizona - @SF WAS DET @CAR @NYJ @DAL SEA BYE MIA
Before you get too worried about the 49ers in Week 1 remember that the Cardinals played them straight up twice last year and put up 25 and 26 points in the matchups. Then they get the weak Washington back seven, the mediocre Lions defense, the under-construction Panthers, the underrated but limited Jets, the question mark Cowboys, the has-been Seahawks, and the under-construction Dolphins defense after a bye. This looks like a stretch to build a lot of momentum for an offense that should be able to unlock new passing game capabilities with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray focused completely on football.
Actionable Advice: Break ties involving Murray, Hopkins, Kenyan Drake and Christian Kirk in favor of the Cardinals.
Atlanta - SEA @DAL CHI @GB CAR
Chicago is a potential landmine in Week 3 and the Packers edge rush is formidable in Week 4, but the Falcons should be of the mind to attack the Packers run defense (which was not improved in the offseason) with Todd Gurley. Week 1 against the Seahawks thin interior defensive line should have a similar game plan. Dallas could be a threat to jump out ahead and make Gurley useless, but he can still convert the easy touchdowns in a shootout. The Panthers in Week 5 might be Gurley’s best spot of the season. Gurley’s knee should also feel as good as it’s going to all year, with the potential for problems as the season goes on.
Actionable Advice: Consider Gurley at ADP and be ready to sell high in October if the Falcons get off to a hot start because they finish with New Orleans, the Chargers, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City in Weeks 13-16.
Baltimore - CLE @HOU KC @WAS CIN
No imposing defenses in the first five games and lots of vulnerabilities to exploit. Cleveland is weak at inside linebacker and safety, Houston in the secondary, Kansas City at corner, Washington in the back seven, and Cincinnati is incorporating new players at every level of the defense. The highest-scoring offense in the league isn’t going to be slowed by this run of teams to open the season.
Actionable Advice: Be open to taking Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Mark Andrews if they fall past ADP, but have a quick trigger finder on Ingram as a sell high. Target Marquise Brown a round ahead of ADP. If the early schedule didn’t sell you on taking Ravens, know that they draw the Browns, Jaguars, and Giants in Weeks 14-16.
Dallas - @LAR ATL @SEA CLE NYG
The Dallas offense got much more exciting when Ceedee Lamb fell to them at #17. Good luck matching up against this arsenal of weapons. The Rams lost to the Cowboys 44-21 last year. The Falcons are the toughest matchup in the opening five, but corner is the weak spot of their defense. Seattle, Cleveland, and the Giants are all plus matchups. The Cowboys scored 35 and 37 points against the Giants in their two matchups last year. Yum.
Actionable Advice: Consider Dak Prescott if he falls past ADP. Lamb and Michael Gallup should be drafted as bench receivers, but they could be fantasy starters in short order. Put Blake Jarwin on your late-round tight end target list.
Chicago - @DET NYG @ATL
The likely open of the Nick Foles era will come against a Lions defense that Mitchell Trubisky threw for three scores against in both matchups last year, and that was with Darius Slay. The Giants and Atlanta won’t be much better off at cornerback facing the bold but sometimes ineffective Foles.
Actionable Advice: Allen Robinson should be on your third-round wide receiver target list and Anthony Miller looks like a steal in the second half of your draft after a stretch as a top 10 receiver in the second half of 2019.
Slow Starters
Denver - TEN @PIT TB @NYJ @NE
We were all excited to see what Drew Lock could do with his track team set of targets, but the schedule release should have dampened that excitement. The Titans will shorten the game with Derrick Henry, the Steelers might be the toughest matchup in the league, and Tampa’s defense is on the rise. The Jets defense has some vulnerabilities in the secondary, but then the New England Patriots lurk in Week 5 to test Lock’s decision-making. The Broncos offense might not be frolicking in the meadows in the first month of the season.
Actionable Advice: It’s difficult to see how targets will be divvied up between Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, and Noah Fant and the team is installing a new Pat Shurmur offense, so it might be better to pass on Broncos and try to buy low in October.
Houston - @KC BAL @PIT MIN
It’s not difficult to picture the Texans getting off to an 0-4 as they start their AFC South title defense. They can only hope to keep up with the Chiefs in Week 1, the Ravens and Steelers could be stifling in Weeks 2 and 3, and Minnesota’s new cornerback group could be settled down by Week 4. Deshaun Watson will be getting used to life without DeAndre Hopkins in less than optimal conditions.
Actionable Advice: If you are going quarterback early, bump Deshaun Watson down on your target list. The lack of clarity in the Texans passing game also makes it easier to break ties against them, although David Johnson still looks like a value at his fifth-round ADP.
Kansas City - HOU @LAC @BAL NE
The Texans aren’t too imposing to open the season, but the Chargers have held Patrick Mahomes II in check, the Baltimore defense he’ll face in Week 3 should be better than one he threw three scores against last year, and then there’s New England, who has been somewhat successful and holding Mahomes to reasonable numbers.
Actionable Advice: The schedule should be enough to make Jackson the target over Mahomes if you are going quarterback very early. It also could mean a slow start for rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the team as he is likely to start out in an RBBC against stingy defenses. This is the Chiefs and they are the most questionable team to fade because of schedule concerns, so don't rely on this as much as we will when we see a tough opening stretch against a more questionable offense.
Las Vegas - @CAR NO @NE BUF @KC
The Raiders have a new-look wide receiver group and while Week 1 could be nice against the rebuilding Panthers, the next four weeks bring tough defenses including a Chiefs defense that allowed only 19 points to the Raiders in two matchups last year.
Actionable Advice: Josh Jacobs' passing game involvement isn’t likely to increase in light of the offseason moves at running back and now this. Jacobs is a shaky cornerstone pick in the first two rounds and it might be best to avoid all Raiders in your draft with the lack of clarity in how the passing game target tree is going to take shape.
Miami - @NE BUF @JAX SEA @SF @DEN LAC
The last time we saw Miami they were staggering the Patriots for the Titans to finish them in the playoffs, so maybe that Week 1 matchup isn’t so scary, but the Bills defense handled the Dolphins offense with ease last year. The Jaguars and Seahawks could be big upside games, but then the 49ers, Broncos, and Chargers all look like units that could put the clamps on an offensive line that is still trying to figure out who the starting five will be come September.
Actionable Advice: Devante Parker is so underrated, he still deserves to be a target despite this tough row to hoe for the offense. Really all of the pieces of this offense are being undervalued, so this just gives us a little more pause before selecting them, but shouldn’t eliminate them from consideration.
New York Giants - PIT @CHI SF
Whew. The Steelers, Bears, and 49ers might be the toughest trio to open the season in the entire league. Both defenses lack a clear weakness to exploit and might make things really rough for an offense that will be getting used to Jason Garrett’s system. Garrett could prove to be the classic better offensive coordinator than head coach in time, but this is not the schedule open he wanted to win over the vicious New York press. The good news is that the Rams, Washington, and Dallas are up after that.
Actionable Advice: If Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott are close on your board, this could be the tiebreaker. The Giants' target tree is crowded, so if you like any of Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, or Sterling Shepard, circle Week 4 as a buy-low opportunity.
New York Jets - @BUF SF @IND DEN
Adam Gase and Sam Darnold draw four tough defenses in succession to open the season. The offensive line is attempting to do a one offseason turnaround like the Week 1 opponent Buffalo did last season, but the Bills, 49ers, Colts, and Broncos defensive lines are going to be among the most challenging in the league.
Actionable Advice: Just let someone else take LeVeon Bell. If there’s a Jets player to target at ADP, it’s Jamison Crowder, although the 49ers and Colts both have good slot corners and the Broncos are getting Bryce Callahan back.
Tennessee - @DEN JAX @MIN PIT BUF
Ryan Tannehill got paid in the offense, and with the exception of a Week 2 creampuff matchup against the Jaguars, he is going to have to earn his keep against some stubborn defenses early in the season. The Broncos, Vikings, Steelers, and Bills are all negative matchups and could keep Derrick Henry stuck in neutral in the driveway.
Actionable Advice: If you were already skeptical about taking Derrick Henry in the first round, this should seal the deal. Just keep him in mind as a buy low in October to take advantage of a Jacksonville, Detroit, Green Bay fantasy playoff schedule. Tannehill is going outside of QB1 range despite being a top-five option last year, and it appears that he should indeed be drafted as a QB2 against this early schedule. AJ Brown is the one player who could defy the schedule, as he burned now Denver Bronco AJ Bouye for a 65-yard score last year, and he’ll also get to test some new corners in Minnesota.
