My first projections cut took nearly 60 hours and I have likely invested another 15-20 hours per week at a minimum keeping this set where I think they represent the most likely outcomes of the players. Distilling data to one set of numbers does not do justice to some of these players who have terrific talent, opportunity, etc. I am penning this article to provide some perspective to guys I like or hate and some thoughts circling my brain that might have gotten lost in a dataset that reflects my best guess at all of the possible outcomes a player can have.
Players listed alphabetically by their last name and by position.
QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen, BUF - The Bills' skill players are not good enough to mask all of Allen's shortcomings as a passer. Allen has delivered for fantasy players because of his legs, but his early ADP represents ceiling projections to me. He is someone I am not drafting this season.
Tom Brady, TB - I suspect he doesn't play up to the lofty expectations and current ADP, but he has not had these kinds of weapons on offense for a long-time. I expect team passing yards and touchdowns to regress in 2020, but fewer mistakes from Brady should translate to more team wins.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR - Bridgewater is getting drafted at his quarterback floor despite having the best running back in the NFL and young capable wide receivers. The Panthers also have a soft schedule to start the year. He is yet another reason why waiting at quarterback is correct this year.
Joe Burrow, CIN - The Bengals are awful on defense and should be playing from behind in most contests. If Burrow can stay upright behind a bad offensive line, I think he could top 600 pass attempts.
Jared Goff, LAR - Goff has quietly increased his passing attempts every year in the league. He wasn't very efficient in 2019, but by logging 626 passing attempts he was relevant for fantasy. Todd Gurley's departure sets up for a similar year as a volume compiler.
Dwayne Haskins, WAS - I still can't shake the image of him running around taking selfies with fans, while the backup quarterback had to go in and complete the game. Although he seems destined to win the starting job, my expectations remain very low.
Lamar Jackson, BAL - Jackson is arguably the most electric player in football, but I expect to see him to run a bit less in 2020. I am avoiding at his current ADP, but I truly get the hype.
Daniel Jones, NYG - Jones recorded five 300+ yard games in just 12 starts. He has skill position players around him and the defense is awful. If his offensive line can keep him upright, his pass attempts should remain high all season long. He is one of the quarterbacks I am targeting this season.
Drew Lock, DEN - He looked good to close out the year and has a quality supporting cast. Here is yet another quarterback who is being drafted at his floor.
Patrick Mahomes II, KC - When doing projections, I always center the numbers across historical baselines. That downplays how great Patrick Mahomes II is right now. He is capable of 50+ passing touchdowns in a season. I generally wait at quarterback but don't hesitate to grab him in the middle of the third round. He is that much of a difference-maker.
Baker Mayfield, CLE - A better coach should theoretically help Mayfield, but this feels like a team that is going to use Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt until their legs fall off. WR Odell Beckham is still living on past success, and Mayfield makes too many mental mistakes playing behind a sub-par offensive line.
Gardner Minshew, JAC - This is an awful team, but the offensive line is above average. Minshew is the clear best option at quarterback for the Jaguars and gets enough production with his legs to remain fantasy relevant. He should be in your streaming quarterback gameplan.
Kyler Murray, ARI - The hype on Murray has overtaken his actual production. The promise of running uptempo all the time and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins promises a better version of Murray in 2020. It's certainly within the realm of possibilities, but he is on my avoid list at his current ADP. He is being drafted at his ceiling.
Cam Newton, NE - Newton is getting drafted at or above his ceiling. He is on a contract where he gets paid the minimum unless he plays. Are we certain Newton wins the starting job in camp? Are we certain he holds onto the job all year and stays healthy? Will the Patriots be good enough to support a QB10 ranking? Cam is off my draft boards, but I am rooting for him as a fan.
Aaron Rodgers, GB - The situation in Green Bay feels like it is going to implode. The team won 13 games last season but looked awful against the 49ers when it counted. The team added no pass-catchers while trading up to get Rodgers' replacement. The transition to a run-based offense has begun. Rookie Jordan Love could usurp snaps if the team truly goes off the rails this season.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - The early camp buzz is that Roethlisberger looks polished. If he returns to the form he was at before the injury, all Steeler skill position players could be undervalued. But father-time is also undefeated and at age 38, he might not be able to withstand a whole season of punishing hits. Roethlisberger is a player I like more in best-ball leagues where you are not punished as much if he can't complete a contest. He has missed 21 games the last five seasons including 14 last year.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA - I am projecting split reps with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Tua Tagovailoa could be a game-changer at quarterback once he becomes the starter. You can do worse than expending a late-round pick on a player who could deliver premium value on a team that will likely be playing from behind most weeks.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN - The Titans are supposedly a run-first team but don't tell that to Ryan Tannehill. He was electric to finish off 2019. He is being drafted as if he is certain to fail, but there is no fall back for the Titans with Mariota now in Las Vegas. He is a safe streaming option that could smash his low ADP.
Tyrod Taylor/Justin Herbert, LAC - This has mess written all over it. Both of these players are off my drafting list.
Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles, CHI - Trubisky will get the week 1 start, but how quick is the leash? Neither player should be drafted in leagues that do not allow you to start two quarterbacks each week.
Carson Wentz, PHI - Wentz threw for 4,039 yards and 27 touchdowns and finished as QB8 in 2019 despite getting just 490 yards from his leading wide receiver. He is among the safest options at the position this year.
RUNNING BACKS
Cam Akers/Darrell Henderson/Malcolm Brown, LAR - I don't have a good feel over how this situation shakes out. I sense this an RBBC all season long and owners of any of these players will be scrambling every week attempting to determine their projected role. Let others take the bait.
Saquon Barkley, NYG - The video of him launching himself out of the swimming pool reaffirms my belief that he is in for a monster season. He is worthy of the second overall pick.
LeVeon Bell, NYJ - When your game is predicated by waiting for the hole to emerge and you are playing behind the worst offensive line in football...Let's just say that it's a bad fit. Bell comes into the season in better shape, but this is a hard situation to get excited about. In PPR leagues, Bell should catch enough passes to stay relevant.
Giovani Bernard, CIN - Bernard is a free draft pick at or near his ADP. He would have immense value should Mixon go down and will contribute weekly in a third-down role for a Bengals team playing from behind often. He is the perfect last-pick in best-ball leagues as he is drafted at his floor and offers a considerable ceiling.
Matt Breida/Jordan Howard, MIA - It's hard to have Thunder or Lightning if your offensive line play is awful which is what I expect from the Dolphins in 2020. I am avoiding both players in drafts, but think Breida might be worth rostering once Tua Tagovailoa becomes the starting quarterback.
Chris Carson, SEA - With Rashaad Penny looking more and more like he could miss a good portion of the 2020 season, Chris Carson has a clear path to massive touches. The Seahawks added veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted DeeJay Dallas, but Carson should see the majority of snaps if healthy. He is being drafted at a discount in the third round.
Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt, CLE - Both of these players are being drafted near their ceilings making them hard to roster at value. If one were to get hurt, the value of the other would skyrocket.
Tarik Cohen, CHI - He is being drafted at a deep discount despite a proposed similar role in 2020. He is a key piece to the puzzle if you target a heavy wide receiver start in rounds 1-7.
Tevin Coleman, SF - He has a sickle-cell trait that caps his upside considerably. This is a player who will have a role in a run-oriented offense, but when would you ever feel comfortable with him in your starting lineup?
James Conner, PIT - The Steelers under Tomlin have a long history of using one back nearly exclusively. His ADP has been rising, but he still represents great value in the third round.
Dalvin Cook, MIN - He is playing on the last year of his rookie deal and wants a new contract. The team is negotiating, but it feels like a new deal should have already happened. I am avoiding Cook in drafts at present because this could end up in a holdout and missed games.
A.J. Dillon, GB - Dillon should be a key target in any RB-zero strategy. He has the skill set to vulture the touchdowns immediately on a Packers team that seems even more committed to running the football in 2020.
J.K. Dobbins/Mark Ingram, BAL - It's clear what the Ravens plan on doing in 2020. They plan to run a lot. Mark Ingram averaged over 5.0 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns in 2019 and is likely to back the own at least to start the season. The highly touted Dobbins is expected to pass up Ingram on the depth chart at some point, but with limited practices during the pandemic, this transition may take longer than expected.
Kenyan Drake/Chase Edmonds, ARI - Drake flashed at the end of 2019, but I think we are all under-projecting Edmonds abilities. This might be more of a time-share than people expect.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC - When Damien Williams opted out, Edwards-Helaire was given a clear path to massive touches on the most explosive team in the league. I am buying the hype. He is going to deliver first-round value in PPR leagues.
Austin Ekeler/Justin Jackson, LAC - Ekeler was electric in 2019 and most are expecting a substantially expanded role this season, but Justin Jackson is going to get his share of carries (and touchdowns) in this offense. Rookie Joshua Kelley could also have a role as the season progresses.
Darrynton Evans, TEN - Derrick Henry can't play all the snaps at running back, can he? Evans is a late-round flier who should do enough on passing downs that he reaches value even without an injury to Henry. But should Henry get nicked, Evans would be the hot waiver claim of the week.
Leonard Fournette/Ryquell Armstead, JAC - Fournette is the unquestioned starter, but the Jaguars tried to shop him before the NFL draft and found no takers. This is likely Fournettee's last year with the Jaguars and one has to think they will want to get a good look at what they have with Ryquell Armstead. Armstead is a great late-round selection, and Fournette is on my avoid unless dirt cheap list.
Antonio Gibson, WAS - His stratospheric ADP rise has priced him out of my reach. I prefer the dart-throw of Bryce Love or the discounted price of Adrian Peterson, but I am mostly just passing on all the Washington running backs. It has a RBBC feel where it will be difficult to know who to start each week.
Melvin Gordon/Phillip Lindsay, DEN - Gordon looked washed up last season so I'm unclear what the Broncos were thinking when they signed him as a free agent. I am projecting him as the starting running back, but I won't be surprised when Phillip Lindsay outplays him.
Todd Gurley, ATL - He seemed damaged last season and early reports in Falcons camp have me cringing that it could be more of the same this season. He is on my no-draft list.
Damien Harris, NE - While Sony Michel attempts to get healthy, Damien Harris is turning heads in training camp. It's always difficult predicting Patriots backs, but Harris should be on your late-pick draft list. He could vault to a prominent role if Sony Michel is shelved.
Derrick Henry, TEN - Henry doesn't catch enough passes to match fantasy statistics with the elite backs, but he managed six multi-touchdown games last year. He is a very safe first-round pick.
Josh Jacobs, LV - Jacobs averaged over 100 combined yards in nine of his 13 games. He also forced a league-high 69 missed tackles according to Pro Football Focus. The Raiders are razor-thin at running back so it's hard to see a scenario where Jacobs doesn't dominate snaps at the position. Jacobs vows to catch 60 passes this season. He is the player I am targeting extensively at pick 10 and beyond.
David Johnson, HOU - The Texans lost a lot of targets with the departure of WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans are hoping a change of scenario for David Johnson has him regaining his form that has been zapped by injuries and revolving coaching staffs. His ADP represents strong value in the late 4th round of drafts.
Kerryon Johnson/DAndre Swift, DET - In 2019, the Lions running backs managed a meager 354 carries, 76 receptions, and 8 touchdowns. The top Detroit running back in 2019 was Kerryon Johnson; He finished as RB54. Adding in a high-profile running back (D'Andre Swift) just further erodes this limited pie. I'm avoiding both players.
Aaron Jones, GB - Jones represents solid value at the end of round two in drafts, but his expectations are capped considerably with the addition of A.J. Dillon who could be a touchdown vulture immediately at a minimum.
Ronald Jones II, TB - Jones might catch 40-50 passes in this offense. I think the industry is collectively too high on Godwin/Evans/Gronkowski based on the Jameis Winston led offense in 2019. Brady has averaged 122 passes to backs the last three seasons in New England. When the dust settles, Brady will be playing small-ball like he always has and Ronald Jones II is going to be a huge part of it.
Alvin Kamara, NO - Kamara played through torn knee ligaments in 2019 and was still making people miss tackles. When healthy, he is a cheat code, and by all accounts, he is healthy to start the year.
Marlon Mack/Jonathan Taylor, IND - Mack is the starting running back in Indianapolis to start the year. The Colts have an easy early schedule so Mack getting demoted early looks like wishful thinking to me. I fully expect Taylor to overtake him by season's end, but Taylor's price is prohibitive without a dominant early-season role.
Alexander Mattison, MIN - Mattison is an extremely capable back that would vault to a top player IF Dalvin Cook went down to injury or held out. He is currently being drafted too early for my tastes as fears that Dalvin Cook could hold out for a new deal before the season is over.
Christian McCaffrey, CAR - Don't overthink it. He should be the No. 1 fantasy player in every redraft league this season.
LeSean McCoy, TB - McCoy brings veteran leadership to Tampa Bay, but he managed just a few games for the Chiefs before father-time caught up to him last year. His signing speaks volumes to how little the Buccaneers have outside of Ronald Jones II. I am avoiding him in drafts.
Jerick McKinnon, SF - McKinnon is back, but his role is extremely unclear. He is not draftable right now, but could be a smart addition if he ends up playing some snaps at slot receiver.
Sony Michel, NE - Michel feels like damaged goods. Bone on bone knee situations never magically get better. They are managed and then eventually the player is out of the league. His ADP is cheap for a reason; He enters the season unhealthy with minimal upside to become the back he was a even few seasons ago.
Lamar Miller, NE - Miller's late signing is more indication that Sony Michel could get shelved. These late free-agent signings usually always disappoint. He was on the free-agent market all summer for a reason.
Joe Mixon, CIN - Talent drives his ADP, but if the teams starts losing games as expected, how many dominant games can we expect from Mixon? He is on the last year of his rookie contract and is in a similar situation as Dalvin Cook where he could opt to sit out games in hopes to force a new contract before the year is out.
David Montgomery, CHI - Montgomery fits the profile of a player who should thrive in Chicago. He has no real competition for early touches (Tarik Cohen is the team's third down back) and the offensive line is solid. I am betting another year in the system and he becomes the player the Bears thought they drafted last season. He represents solid value in the fifth round.
Zack Moss/Devin Singletary, BUF - The Bills score 15 rushing touchdowns from their running backs over the LAST 3 YEARS. This muddied RBBC situation is clear to me. Avoid both.
Raheem Mostert, SF - Even before the 49ers redid the deal with Mostert this offseason, you could tell he was a player the team wanted longer-term. His punishing style is a perfect compliment to Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon. He represents exceptional value in the fifth/sixth round of drafts.
Dare Ogunbowale, TB - Tom Brady targeted running backs an average of 122 times a season over the last three years in New England. Ogunbowale should emerge as the pass-catching back if Tampa Bay brings small-ball to town as I suspect they will.
Rashaad Penny, SEA - I sense we are not going to see Penny all year. He should be further along if he was going to play this season. PUP seems like a certainty at a minimum right now and a completely lost season remains a real possibility.
Adrian Peterson, WAS - Ignore the ageless wonder at your own peril. Peterson is not human. he will find a way to deliver for those drafting him at his non-existent ADP.
Miles Sanders/Boston Scott, PHI - Sanders ADP skyrocketed this summer when the Eagles failed to add running back depth. But I think the situation is better defined by the team's love for the backup, Boston Scott. Sanders is the starter, but he is being drafted at his ceiling. Scott is an after-thought in most drafts, but could have a prominent role in this offense.
Ito Smith, ATL - Smith is the likely starting running back in Atlanta should Todd Gurley go down to injury. Reports out of camp already have noticed Gurley walking with a noticeable limp. The team is also limiting Gurley's preseason reps. I am all-in on this dart-throw late.
KeShawn Vaughn, TB - The LeSean McCoy signing tells me that Vaughn is way behind where he needs to be. Without a Ronald Jones II injury, I don't expect to see much of Vaughn in 2020.
James White, NE - Despite chaos in the New England backfield, James White's role feels secure. He is a PPR monster and can float a RB2 deficit on your fantasy team until something better emerges. I expect him to overplay his draft position early in the year if Sony Michel misses games (which seems likely).
TIGHT ENDS
Mark Andrews, BAL - Andrews is a mismatch that is going to continue to be very difficult to defend in 2020. He is big and also a capable blocker. Teams that sellout to try and stop Baltimore's ground game are going to have to deal with Mark Andrews sliding into coverage. The departure of Hayden Hurst opens the door to more targets and receptions. His ADP of TE 3/4 is rich, but he is a difference-maker at the position.
Devin Asiasi, NE - Rookie tight ends rarely contrinute in year one, but he has an unimpeded path to playing time. I kept thinking the Patriots have to add a veteran tight end this offseason but they never did. He is well below the radar and could surprise.
Jared Cook, NO - Cook recorded 537 yards and 7 touchdowns in the final eight games as he became more fluid with his new team. He represents great value in drafts at his current ADP.
Eric Ebron, PIT - Tight ends contributed 1,119 yards and 6 touchdowns when Roethlisberger was quarterback in 2018. Ebron (like most of the Pittsburgh players) is being under-valued in drafts.
Evan Engram, NYG - Engram is being drafted as if he is a good player, which he hasn't been the last two seasons. He set career lows in games played, receptions, yards per catch and yards in 2019. The Giants have too many other pass-catchers to warrant drafting Engram on your fantasy team at his current ADP.
Noah Fant, DEN - Over the last three years, Denver tight ends have averaged just 661 yards and 4.3 touchdowns per season. People expecting Fant to have better statistics than the average team totals flies in the face of the Broncos adding rookie electric WR Jerry Jeudy in the draft. Fant is a clear fade at his ADP for me.
Mike Gesicki, MIA - The cupboard is bare for Miami pass catchers after a few of their players have opted out. Gesicki seems poised for a huge role in 2020.
Dallas Goedert, PHI - With the Eagles running a lot of two tight end formations due to a depleted wide receiver group, Goedert managed 51 catches for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns from week 6 on. He is the Eagles tight end I want this season.
Jimmy Graham, CHI - The fantasy community has already buried the 33-year-old tight end, but perhaps we collectively have this wrong. The Bears signed Jimmy to a two-year contract this offseason, while moving on from Trey Burton. Graham is the unquestioned starter and is worth a dart in TE-premium best ball leagues at a minimum.
Rob Gronkowski/O.J. Howard, TB - Gronkowski is one of the more difficult people to project for in 2020. His upside is huge, but he has been away from the game a long time. It won't shock me when O.J. Howard emerges as the team's best tight end by season's end (either due to injury or just outplaying the older player).
Chris Herndon, NYJ - Herndon logged just 1 catch for 7 yards after a suspension, hamstring and rib injuries derailed last season. The Jets remain hopeful he can return to his rookie form where he had 502 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. The fantasy industry (me included) have cautious projections for Herndon, but he could be a major piece of their passing offense in 2020.
Tyler Higbee/Gerald Everett, LAR - Both Rams tight ends logged career highs in catches and yards despite missing two and four games respectively. Without Brandin Cooks in the mix in 2020, The Rams will likely keep using both tight ends instead of running three wide consistently. Both players represent value in drafts.
T.J. Hockenson, DET - When a tight end gets drafted at pick 1.08 overall, you need to take notice. Hockenson, like most rookie tight ends, struggled to make an impact in his first year. But he flashed enough in his first game in the NFL (6 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown) to showcase his future. He finished the season injured and never established himself. But it's a new year and Hockenson has the pedigree that could vault him to elite status by year's end.
Austin Hooper, CLE - Hooper's situation in fantasy went off a cliff when he left the Falcons for free agent dollars from the Browns. He is a clear avoid for me.
Hayden Hurst, ATL - I can't put my finger on it, but this feels like a bust situation. Baltimore moved on from him for a reason.
Blake Jarwin, DAL - Jason Witten has suppressed Jarwin's progress for awhile now. We might all be collectively sleeping on this value player. As teams try to deal with Dallas vertical threat at wide receiver, Jarwin is going to be exploiting mismatches against linebackers.
George Kittle, SF - He is the best all-around tight end in the league but is priced too high in fantasy for my liking. He is extremely valuable as a blocker and the 49ers will use him a lot in that role.
Greg Olsen, SEA - Olsen starts the year atop the Seahawks depth chart. At age 35, he likely probably breaks down, but this is a player you can draft in hopes of improving the position later. He goes undrafted in some drafts, but will produce value for every game he plays.
Jordan Reed, SF - This late signing signals to me that the team wants to run two tight end formations more with Deebo Samuel potentially out a bit longer. He thrived (when not concussed) under Shanahan in Washington. He is just 30 years old.
Jonnu Smith, TEN - The Titans managed 948 yards and 7 touchdowns from their tight ends in 2019. He has improved his targets, receptions and yards each of his first three seasons. He enters 2020 as the unquestioned starting tight end yet still is under-appreciated in fantasy drafts.
Jace Sternberger, GB - Early camp reports show him not getting it. He's someone I expected to have a bigger role because of a lack of wide receiver depth, but perhaps he is just a bust. He has moved to my no-draft list.
Ian Thomas, CAR - Thomas inherits the Olsen role and has performed well when needed. He is flying well-below the radar and is another reason waiting at tight end is correct again this year.
Darren Waller, LV - Waller logged five 100+ yard receiving games last season. He was on the field for 940 snaps (surpassed only by Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz). People discounting his season because the Raiders added receivers are missing the point of why Waller never leaves the field. He is a freak-athlete who logged a 4.46 combine 40 a few years back despite being 6-foot-6 tall and weighing 238 pounds. The touchdowns are coming. Sleep on him at your own risk.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Davante Adams, GB - With few other weapons to catch Aaron Rodgers passes, he should dominate in 2020. But I have a strange feeling that he disappoints. It's tough when you face double-teams nearly every single play. I won't project him for worse, but I won't be shocked if he disappoints drafters either.
Keenan Allen, LAC - The quarterback play is worse this season, but drafting him around WR20 still seems very cheap. Not many receivers are able to create separation like Keenan Allen.
Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry, CLE - I expect the Browns to run more this season. I am down on all of the Cleveland pass catchers, because I am not convinced Baker Mayfield is a very good football player.
Tyler Boyd/A.J Green, CIN - With arguably the worst defense in the league, I expect the Bengals to lead all teams in garbage fantasy points. I like both of these players at their ADP, but prefer the younger Boyd who should see softer coverage on average.
A.J. Brown/Corey Davis, TEN - Defenses stacking the box to try and stop Derrick Henry were punished by Brown's run after the catch prowess. Corey Davis offers a similar mismatch for a fraction of the cost and should now get the lesser cornerback covering him. I am drafting Corey Davis everywhere I can.
Antonio Brown, FA - Although he could be a difference maker on rosters, he is serving 8 games minimum and still is not on a roster. Feels like a wasted pick in 2020.
Marquise Brown, BAL - He flashed enough in 2019 to tease us. When you sell out to stop the run, speed merchants like Marquise Brown are going to kill you in single coverage. His season is likely to produce erratic statistical lines, but his final season totals should be elite. He is a great player to draft in best-ball formats.
Parris Campbell, IND - His rookie season was fraught with multiple injuries and never got on track. He has skills and has a similar play style to Keenan Allen who thrived with Rivers. This is an educated dart that could deliver at his ADP.
D.J. Chark/Dede Westbrook, JAC - I don't get the Chark hype. He is on my all-fade list at his current ADP. I am rostering Dede Westbrook late in nearly all leagues.
Randall Cobb, HOU - Cobb is a great insurance policy against the often injured Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller. He gives stand-alone value at his current ADP that would increase immensely should Cooks or Fuller lose time to injury.
Brandin Cooks/Will Fuller, HOU - I prefer Cooks especially with the later ADP. Fuller has reached undraftable territory as the hyped upside always seems to downplay that he is always hurt.
Amari Cooper, DAL - Cooper is a player more suited for best-ball leagues than leagues where you have to choose his breakout games.
Jamison Crowder/Breshad Perriman, NYJ - I love both of these players at their ADP, but am worried about the Jets offensive line holding up. The team could be forced to pass no matter what, but if the line is a complete disaster then no on will be worth rostering from the Jets.
Stefon Diggs/John Brown, BUF - Someone has to catch Josh Allen's passes. Both players should compile enough fantasy points to beat their ADPs.
Julian Edelman, NE - He is now 34 years old and is less-than 100% before the season starts. This feels like a trainwreck although his ADP is tempting.
Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, TB - Last year's starting quarterback Jameis Winson made so many errors that the Buccaneers were forced to throw deep late in games. This season, I expect a "boring" offense led by Tom Brady that is both efficient and mistake-free. Unfortunately, the stat-padding games both of these players benefitted from last year could disappear this season.
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - A late round dart that is being drafted like he already retired. The soon to be 37-year old caught 75 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns last season and hasn't missed a game in three seasons. Hall-of-Fame players aren't human. Don't bet against Fitzgerald.
Michael Gallup, DAL - He emerged in 2019 and it won't surprise me if he consistently puts up the best receiving stats most weeks in Dallas. He comes at a fraction of the cost of Amari Cooper and will draw lesser coverage all season. He is a rising star.
Kenny Golladay, DET - He has improved his receptions, yards and touchdowns every year he has been in the league. What if his 65-1190-11 statline from last year is his floor?
Mecole Hardman - I get the desire to want pass catchers in the elite Chiefs pass-attack, but Mecole Hardman's ADP is bordering on ridiculous. His two biggest games in 2019 came when Tyreek Hill was injured. If the Chiefs had moved on from Sammy Watkins and/or DeMarcus Robinson, I might feel differently. But for now Mecole Hardman feels like an overpriced gadget that you would never know when to plug into your roster.
Tee Higgins, CIN - There are a lot of capable wide receivers on the Bengals that Tee Higgins likely needs an injury to get worthwhile snaps this season. He is not someone I am drafting, but could be a great addition should Green or Boyd get hurt.
Tyreek Hill, KC - The fastest player in the NFL catching passes from Mahomes feels like a sure thing. The minor hamstring twinge does not concern me.
T.Y. Hilton, IND - He is back and severely undervalued. Getting him in the sixth round or later feels criminal.
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI - A new team plus pandemic madness should soften his ADP more than it has. Hopkins is a pass for me at these levels and I think he will find targets, catches, yards and touchdowns harder to come by in the Arizona spread scheme.
Justin Jefferson, MIN - Jefferson is expected to inherit the targets vacated by Stefon Diggs, but I won't be surprised when he underperforms expectations and the team utilizes more double tight end formations especially in the redzone. Jefferson could be fool's gold this season.
Alshon Jeffery, PHI - Jeffery could win your leagues late if he comes back, but I am avoiding drafting him. The possibility he is shelved all season remains a real possibility.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN - This is one of the rookies I am actively targeting. He looks the part in every workout video he is in. He might be better than Courtland Sutton out of the gate.
Diontae Johnson/James Washington, PIT - I prefer Washington as a late-round dart throw (especially in best-ball leagues). Nearly all Pittsburgh skill players are being drafted at a discount as the memory of last season without Ben Roethlisberger is fresh in people's minds.
Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley, ATL - It won't shock me when Calvin Ridley produces better fantasy statistics than Julio Jones this season. Julio Jones' body is getting wrecked weekly and despite missing just one week in the last three years, he always seems to be fighting some bump or bruise that lands him on the weekly injury report. Jones' touchdown rate isn't going to suddenly improve as he ages.
Marvin Jones, DET - Jones has no real competition on his projected role. This is a stable middle-round non-sexy pick.
Christian Kirk, ARI - He improved his targets, catches, and yards in his second-year. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that Kirk outplays DeAndre Hopkins.
Cooper Kupp, LAR - Cooper was dominant early in 2019 compiling a 58-793-5 stat line through his first eight games before tailing off horribly to end the season. He didn't look right to me. The same separation I was seeing early in the year vanquished and his production wained. Although the team never disclosed an injury, my eyes tell me something was off. I am willing to bet that got corrected this offseason and I am looking for a huge bounce-back year from him.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL - With so many pass catchers on Dallas, they all can't be bargains. Lamb is being drafted about where I think he will finish, but he seems like an exceptional hard player to know when to have in your starting lineup.
Allen Lazard, GB - Lazard has locked up the WR2 job on Green Bay and represents great value in drafts at his current ADP.
Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf, SEA - I prefer Lockett to have the better season although I expect both to do well. Metcalf rarely experienced double-teams in 2019. That could change this year after Metcalf's strong rookie debut. Lockett has a more polished game and runs a better variety of routes.
Terry McLaurin, WAS - McLaurin emerged and is getting drafted correctly. He is a solid player to build your team around.
D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel, CAR - Moore's ADP has skyrocketed to a point where it now makes more sense to bet against him and select Curtis Samuel with a late round pick.
Michael Pittman, IND - I am generally down on rookies this year because of the limited snaps they will get in training camp (and no preseason games), but I might have it wrong with Pittman. He is the kind of big target Philip Rivers enjoyed in his years with the Chargers.
Jalen Reagor, PHI - I felt like this was a reach pick on draft day, and I am still not sold Reagor has an extensive role when their veteran receivers are healthy. It feels like another year where the Eagles rely on their two tight ends.
Allen Robinson, CHI - The shy is the limit if the Bears get better play from their quarterbacks.
Demarcus Robinson, KC - Only an option in the deepest leagues, Robinson is another weapon you should have on your radar should one of Kansas City's receivers get hurt. He has improved receptions and yards each of his first three seasons as a Chief.
Henry Ruggs, LV - The Raiders drafting a track star at wide receiver? Tell me it isn't so. Ruggs might have route shortcomings, but when you are as fast as he is, it might not matter. The Raiders have a solid offensive line and are committed to starting him out of the gate. I have conservative projections for Ruggs, but I think he could be someone that really shines on the biggest stage.
Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk, SF - It's never fun drafting a wide receiver who is questionable to even play in week 1 which is exactly where we are at today with Deebo Samuel. He has talent, but his price is too steep for a player who had foot surgery in June. Similarly Aiyuk's ADP has skyrocketed on the Samuel news and is also overpriced.
Emmanuel Sanders, NO - I loved Sanders' comeback last year. But it speaks volumes that the 49ers (who need stability at wide receiver) let him go. He has a reasonable ADP, but at age 33, father-time is against him.
Mohamed Sanu, NE - Sanu was injured last year and it showed on the field. To avoid that situation this season, he hired a live in coach and trained hard during the pandemic. I suspect we see a fresher Sanu who literally can be had as a last-pick in your draft currently. I have him rostered in 87+% of the drafts I have completed to date.
Sterling Shepard/Darius Slayton/Golden Tate, NYG - Fantasy analysts are all over the map in ranking these Giants pass catchers. I have Shepard rated as the more accomplished weapon. Concussions and various injuries derailed his 2019 season, but he still led the receiving group in targets/game at 8.5 per contest.
Steven Sims Jr, WAS - Sims managed four touchdowns in the last three games of 2019. With minimal competition for the starting spot opposite of Terry McLaurin, Sims ADP is criminally low. He can be drafted in the last rounds of most drafts and might have a seven-touchdown upside.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT - A knee injury and horrible quarterback play led to a horrible season for Smith-Schuster. And although a bounce-back seems logical with better quarterback play, I remain unconvinced that Smith-Schuster can get separation consistently when he draws the best cornerbacks. The Steelers also seem unconvinced as he plays out the last year of his rookie contract. Smith-Schuster remains an avoid for me as I like way too other players with a similar ADP.
Adam Thielen, MIN - With the departure of Stefon Diggs, one could argue that he should see more targets in 2020. But I think it was the presence of Diggs that presented Thielen with easier coverage. I sense that the Vikings will use a lot of two-tight end formations and run the ball more than they ever had. Thielen could still deliver to his ADP, but the thought of extra targets might be a mirage.
Michael Thomas, NO - Despite the Saints promising to run more every season, they always fall back to getting the ball to Thomas. I generally prefer taking a running back in the first round, but Michael Thomas is a safe alternative to start your draft.
Mike Williams, LAC - The talent is sometimes on display, but Williams never really put it all together with a better quarterback than he has now. I am passing on him at his ADP.
Preston Williams, MIA - Williams is flying miles below the radar despite all of the Miami wide receiver opt-outs. He is a player I am actively targeting in all drafts. Once thought to likely miss Week 1, he now looks like he will be back on the field to start the season.
Robert Woods, LAR - With a fourth-round ADP, he is on my impossible-to-draft list. I generally have a two-round rule for receivers. At full upside, could he be worthy of a pick two rounds better than he is being drafted at? Woods is a clear no to that question for me.
