Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-114), WIN +1.0 unit
- Cleveland Browns +10 (+118), WIN +1.0 unit
Week profit/loss: +2.0 units
Year-to-date profit/loss: -6.42 units
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Pick: Green Bay Packers ML (-188) at FanDuel Sportsbook, risk 1.88 units to win 1.0 unit
On Conference Championship weekend, the Green Bay Packers will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the battle for the privilege to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Packers enter this game as 3-point favorites, but that number is juiced to the gills at approximately -130 on FanDuel. Subsequently, instead of paying that steep price against the spread, we will back the Packers to win straight-up and net us 1.0-unit of profit in a victory.
The Packers are scorching hot right now as they ride a seven-game winning streak into this clash with the Bucs. Across that seven-game span, Green Bay has surpassed the 30-point mark in six of those games. Unsurprisingly, the NFC North Champions' offensive success is driven by the stellar play of their likely-MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers leads the NFL in almost every single advanced metric that measures quarterback performance relative to expectation. Perhaps, more importantly, he is also the number-one quarterback in the league in all predictive metrics by a large margin.
Earlier in the season, Rodgers and the Packers struggled against teams with top-end pass-rushes, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 6, the Packers scored just 10 points against Tampa Bay when they went down to Florida and lost their first game of the year. However, throughout their seven-game winning streak, the Packers have rectified this issue. Last week, Green Bay put 32 points on the board to go along with nearly 500 yards of total offense against the Los Angeles Rams' elite pass-rush headlined by Aaron Donald. In short, as great teams do, the Green Bay Packers addressed the primary exploit in their offensive scheme as the season wore on. Even without All-Pro David Bakhtiari, who was lost for the year to a midseason ACL injury, Green Bay's offensive line has held up its end of the bargain, keeping its MVP quarterback clean and upright in the pocket.
At the top, Green Bay also has an edge in the coaching and leadership department. In his second year as a head coach, Matt LaFleur's offensive scheme has been fully implemented with total buy-in from everyone within the organization. His unit is firing on all cylinders, and he is maximizing their scoring opportunities week-in and week-out with sharp fourth-down decision-making. The Packers have been one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL in terms of going for it on fourth down. As expected, with an MVP quarterback, All-Pro wide receiver, and Pro Bowl running back, going for it on fourth down is often the right decision, thanks to the prohibitive talent advantage in Green Bay's favor in most games. This aggression consistently puts the Packers' offense in the best position to maximize its production and light up the scoreboard.
Opposite the Packers, the Buccaneers' six-game winning streak is also impressive on the surface. However, their exceptionally-soft schedule across this span is the bigger story. Only one of these games came against a team with a winning record; the New Orleans Saints. Even that victory was headlined by the shortcomings of Drew Brees rather than the performance of Tampa Bay. The other five games in this six-game winning streak came against teams with a combined record of just 23-41. Tampa Bay is undeniably an impressive team-- they have made it this far for a reason-- but their underlying metrics pale in comparison to those of the Green Bay Packers.
Tom Brady heading down south to join the Bucs this offseason after a tremendous career in New England, only to lead Tampa Bay to its first playoff berth in over a decade, is remarkable. His presence instantly transformed this offense into a top-three unit in the NFL, according to DVOA. The connections Brady developed with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown later in the season made Tampa Bay's aerial attack nearly unstoppable. Unfortunately for the Bucs, Brown will be unable to play this weekend due to a knee injury he sustained in last week's game. While his per-game production numbers were not eye-popping this year, the value of such an immensely talented route-runner and pass-catcher in this offense cannot be understated.
In this matchup, even Tampa Bay's top-three offense is unlikely to provide enough firepower to keep pace with Green Bay's attack. Green Bay ranks first in the NFL in passing DVOA, while Tampa Bay ranks fifth. For comparison, Green Bay's offense is so far ahead of the rest of the NFL that the difference between these two top-five passing attacks is approximately as big as the difference between Tampa Bay and Minnesota's passing attacks.
Next, in the battle of the minds, head coach Bruce Arians is an old-school head coach that is extremely conservative on fourth downs. This year, the Buccaneers were one of the 10 worst teams in the league in fourth-down decision-making. They lost nearly 0.5 wins (according to pre-snap win-expectancy) on their fourth-down decision-making this season, which is over twice as much as the next-worst team still remaining in the playoffs.
In total, given the coaching edge in favor of the Green Bay Packers, combined with the strength of their offensive numbers (adjusted for strength of schedule), the Packers are significant favorites to reach their first Super Bowl since 2010. At the current moneyline of -188, we will have a 1.88-unit wager on the Packers to win this game and net us 1.0-unit of profit in a victory.
BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Pick: Over 54 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook, risk 0.825 units to win 0.75 units
In another rematch of a midseason clash between Super Bowl contenders, the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night. On the line is a chance for either Bills Mafia to head down to Miami and wreak havoc on folding tables in the great state of Florida or Chiefs' faithful to defend their throne as the reigning champions after last year's Super Bowl win over the 49ers. All signs are pointing towards star quarterback Patrick Mahomes II suiting up this weekend after leaving last week's game against the Browns early due to a concussion. If he is able to go, this game has the makings of a shootout, despite the results of their regular-season clash.
In the Week 6 meeting between these two teams, the Chiefs emerged victorious 26-17 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. After digging into the context surrounding the box score and production numbers for each team, a few things jump off the page immediately. First, Clyde Edwards-Helaire carried the ball 26 times, equal to the number of pass attempts Patrick Mahomes II registered on the afternoon. On the other side of the football, the Buffalo Bills ran only 50 plays that afternoon. Buffalo's 206 yards of total offense was their worst showing of the season. There is no reason to expect a repeat of this anomaly this weekend, with the stakes as high as ever.
Peeling back the layers of Kansas City's Week 6 play-calling reveals an interesting chess match between the Chiefs' masterful offensive minds and the Bills' schematic genius defensively. In Week 6, the Bills loaded the field with defensive backs, leaving few defenders in the box to guard against the run. Buffalo was willing to concede a small advantage to Kansas City's run game in order to contain the Chiefs' historic passing attack. This played out exactly as Buffalo hoped; Kansas City took what the defense was willing to give them, which resulted in 46 rushing attempts for 245 yards, approximately 5.3 yards-per-carry. The Chiefs only aired it out 26 times for 225 yards, approximately 8.7 yards-per-attempt through the air. The Chiefs posted just 26 points in this Week 6 meeting, their second-lowest scoring output of any game started and finished by Patrick Mahomes II this season.
The Bills have smartly deployed similar strategies in other high-leverage games against potent passing attacks this season. The good news for the over this weekend is that the Bills have already tried this exact strategy against this exact opponent. Now, Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy, two of the smartest offensive minds in the NFL, have had months to watch the tape of this exact defensive approach and plot their counter. Typically, a great offense in the NFL wins over a great defense because of each side of the football's proactive and reactive nature. For the most part, offenses are proactive and dictate what happens in terms of personnel, instinctual reactions, and other nuanced features of the game. On the other hand, defense is more reactive-- defenses match the personnel of their opponents and have various defensive assignments based on what the offense does. In the first meeting between these two teams, Buffalo's defense was proactive; their light defensive boxes dictated what Kansas City's offense did (run the football at a season-high clip.) Expect the Chiefs' offense to flip the script this time around and dictate what happens by putting the ball in the hands of their superstar quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II.
For the Buffalo Bills, there is no secret what their plan of attack is on offense. Their offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, wants to air the football out early and often while also capitalizing on Josh Allen's size and athleticism at quarterback. So far, in the playoffs, the Bills have only handed it off to their running backs an average of 9.5 times per game. Thanks to reliable pass-catchers like Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, the remarkable efficiency of the team's aerial attack allows this offense to remain one-dimensional without the usual adverse effects. The Bills are one of the most analytically-driven teams in the NFL, and they are unlikely to be baited into playing any other style of football besides what has gotten them to this point. Expect Josh Allen to shoulder the load on Sunday evening, with the success or failure of Buffalo's offense resting mostly on his performance.
Additionally, the expected scoring output of this game is bolstered by each team's fourth-down decision-making tendencies. Both teams are exceptionally aggressive on fourth-downs, going for it more than over 85-percent of teams in the league. These fourth-down play-calling tendencies foster high-scoring environments, as the risk and reward associated with these calls is higher than the conservative alternate options. Last week, after throwing the ball on 4th-and-1 with Chad Henne on the field and the game on the line, Andy Reid noted, "I went to BYU. Every down's a throwing down." There couldn't be a more poignant quote to encapsulate the aggression shown by these two coaching staffs. If you are a fan of aggressive play-calling and high-scoring offenses, the AFC Championship is the game for you this weekend.
In sum, this game between two of the NFL's top-five offenses projects to total nearly 56 points. At the current line of 54 (-110), we will have a 0.825-unit wager on the over to win 0.75-units in a victory.
