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The fantasy playoffs are here. We made it. We’ll still have injuries and COVID-19 test results to watch out for, but it feels like a special achievement to make it this season. A wild regular season capped with a Tuesday night game seems fitting. Regardless, we still need to dig into what we saw this past week and what it means for the playoffs. To help, I took a look at few disappointing performances from Week 13 and discussed what I learned and how we can use the info moving forward.

Quarterback: Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Week 13 Results: 24.8 (Projected), 15.0 (Actual)

"Let Russ Cook" was the offseason anthem that turned into reality to start the season. The Seahawks were undefeated through five weeks and Russell Wilson was still in the MVP conversation through nine weeks. Now, we’re questioning everything about the offense (except for DK Metcalf). Wilson has finished outside of the Top 12 in four of his last five games. He finished as the QB20 in what we thought was a decent matchup against the New York Giants. With the playoffs starting this week, we need to better understand what’s going on with Seattle’s offense and if we can trust Russ to get back to his earlier season form to help us win our leagues.

Advice Moving Forward:

Wilson has positive matchups in Weeks 14 and 15 (NYJ and WFT) but faces the Rams in Week 16. Fantasy managers should at least look at other options to secure their championship. Wilson has been trailing off since Week 8. After finishing as a QB1 in six of the first eight weeks of the season, Seattle’s passing game appeared unstoppable. However, regression hit Wilson in the worst way.

Wilson has been above the league average in touchdown rate (touchdowns divided by attempts) for four consecutive seasons. He ranked first in touchdown rate from Weeks 1 through 9 at 9.4%. He’s down to a 2.9% touchdown rate since Week 10. Wilson has caused multiple turnovers under pressure (three turnovers against the Rams, two recovered fumbles against Arizona, and two turnovers against the Giants) which has further exacerbated his drop in fantasy production. With Wilson set to face the Rams again in Week 16 (fourth in sacks per game, just one passer has eclipsed 250 passing yards in five weeks), fantasy managers should look at other options to close out the playoffs. The original thought was that Chris Carson’s return in Week 12 would significantly alter their offense. But their neutral passing rate actually increased from the previous week and Wilson’s red-zone passing rate remained the same. Even his deep-ball rate has stayed relatively the same (except in Week 11 against Arizona). It all comes down to touchdowns.

Running Back: Kareem Hunt, Browns

Week 13 Results: 12.7 (Projected), 8.7 (Actual)

Kareem Hunt was drafted with the idea that he would be an instant RB1 if Nick Chubb was injured. Plus, Hunt would carry some stand-alone value given his receiving acumen and Kevin Stefanski’s predication towards the run. For the early parts of the season, those priors were confirmed. Hunt finished within the Top 24 in consecutive weeks, took over the lead role when Chubb was injured and carried most of the load for Cleveland. But he’s tailed off since Chubb’s return. His 8.7 PPR points in Week 13 marked his third week in a row of fewer than 10 points. With Chubb resuming his full workload, it’s time to take a look at Hunt’s role as a backup to see if we can start him during the fantasy playoffs.

Advice Moving Forward:

Hunt is still a high-priority handcuff but falls into RB3/FLEX territory as Browns look to lock up a playoff spot. Hunt’s season can be broken down into three phases: when both Hunt and Nick Chubb were healthy (Weeks 1-3), when Hunt was the lone running back starter (Weeks 5-8), and after Chubb returned (Weeks 10-13). From there, we can look at how he’s been used and any issues with his workload.

Touches through the air or in the red zone are much more valuable to us and Kareem Hunt has fallen off in both areas. He’s had just 10 targets in the last four weeks with Nick Chubb earning 6 over the same time span. Hunt’s red-zone usage has fallen to just 3.3 touches per game with Chubb out-touching Hunt 9 to 3 over the last two weeks. Hunt’s decreased workload in these key areas has been the main cause of his drop in fantasy output. Without the touchdowns or the targets, Hunt has ranked outside the Top 24 in three consecutive games. Cleveland is second in the AFC North and needs to remain competitive in order to advance to the playoffs. It’ll keep Hunt in the rotation, but it’ll be hard to start him during the fantasy playoffs. For most fantasy formats, running back touches in their totality aren’t as important in regards to fantasy production. What’s more important is how those touches come and where they occur. Take Jordan Howard for example. He’s had just 32 attempts this season, but nine of them have come from within the 10-yard line resulting in four touchdowns. J.D. McKissic, another example, has scored 123.9 PPR points this season but 56 of those points have come just on receptions.

Wide Receiver: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers

Week 13 Results: 14.4 (Projected), 9.8 (Actual)

Touchdowns can truly change our perception about a player. JuJu Smith-Schuster scored in Week 12 and the excitement around the dancing, video-gaming wide receiver was instantly back. His nine targets were what fantasy managers wanted to see. His four red-zone targets (that enabled his short score) were even better. It provided the confidence to go back to Smith-Schuster in Week 13 against Washington. But nine targets in Week 12 was just a 17.6% target share. He totaled just 37 yards and it was the sixth time this season he had been held under 50 yards in a game. Week 13 brought more of the same without any looks from inside the 20-yard line. Smith-Schuster’s disappointing week (season) warranted a deeper investigation into his role within the team and if we can trust him with a few weeks left in the fantasy season.

Advice Moving Forward:

Smith-Schuster’s shift in role and varying usage makes him a WR3 despite the positive matchups for Pittsburgh throughout the playoffs. Smith-Schuster has primarily worked out of the slot since he entered the league. His catch rate from the slot has been above 65.0% in three consecutive seasons and it’s actually increased to 79.2% in 2020. The offseason idea was that Smith-Schuster’s ability to work the slot combined with Ben Roethlisberger’s decline in deep-ball attempts would be a perfect match. But something else changed.

* - Only games played with Ben Roethlisberger were considered

Pittsburgh has maintained a 66.1% neutral passing rate throughout the season. Roethlisberger has the sixth-most attempts from inside the 20-yard line since Week 9 and the team was averaging 30.8 PPG. Typically, we’d continue to start a wide receiver attached to such an offense. However, with his opportunity dwindling and his chance for explosive plays nearly non-existent, Smith-Schuster should be considered a WR3/FLEX play throughout the playoffs. Smith-Schuster’s aDOT has plummeted to just 5.5 yards in 2020. He leads the team in targets between zero and five air yards and has just eight deep targets. The problem is Eric Ebron. Pittsburgh’s newest addition at tight end has a greater aDOT (7.5), more deep targets (11), and has a similar reception rate out of the slot (73.9%). The overlap has given Roethlisberger more options but left Smith-Schuster as a redundant asset at receiver. As a prospect, the USC product was praised for his release moves and short-area route running, but wasn’t a factor deep and struggled against press coverage. Now that the team has multiple receivers who can win on the outside and have utility out of the backfield, Smith-Schuster appears to be on the outside looking in from a talent perspective. However, it’s hard to ignore his situation.