Week 1 this year is probably one of the toughest in recent memory. We’ve got storylines, data, and news to parse through and we’re not sure how to react. Without any preseason games, we have no other information to go off of other than what we all watched over the last five days. We can’t overreact and trade away players for bad performances nor should we start sending trades for outliers. We at least need to react and begin watching for sure signs of improvement or some sense of certainty before dropping or trading away players. Even after a one-week letdown, we need to carefully examine the situation and see if there’s anything we can salvage before we make a decision.
Each week, I’ll be reviewing the players with the most-disappointing performances. From injuries to game flow to poor play, we can identify the reasons for the drop in production and how to approach each situation as we head into the following week. Let’s start at the quarterback position.
Quarterback: Baker Mayfield, Browns
Week 1 Results: (Projected) 15.9, (Actual) 9.9
The Browns entered 2020 after hitting the trifecta of the non-existent offseason. They brought in a new head coach, hired a new offensive coordinator, and added another pass-catcher to the offense. Much-needed changes after a disastrous 2019, but changes that needed time to fully integrate. The fantasy community may not have been excited about Baker Mayfield in his third year, but we did have interest in parts of the offense. Four Browns carried ADPs inside the first six rounds. Most were considered values at their cost, but it all hinged on Mayfield. His Week 1 outing forces us to re-examine the former Heisman winner and if he’s a viable option on our squads moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
It’s time to move on from Mayfield. Mayfield had a QB17 ADP headed into the season, was considered a low-risk option given the available pass-catchers in Cleveland, and still finished as the QB30. And it’s not just his performance. It’s more about his performance relative to quarterbacks drafted after him. The only starting quarterback with a lower ADP than Mayfield that had a worse Week 1 result was Tyrod Taylor. In addition, Mayfield posted a 64.1% on-target passing rate (second-lowest amongst all Week 1 starters), attempted 0 pass attempts while in scoring position, and offered no upside as a runner. Quarterbacks finishing in the Top 12 averaged 25.3 points in Week 1. QB2s averaged 17.4 points. Fantasy teams can barely handle a 7-point swing in their head-to-head matchups let alone a 15-point delta. Streaming options are readily available with multiple paths to at least QB2 results (e.g. Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill). Until Baker can turn things around, the optimal approach is to leave him on the waiver wire in favor of quarterbacks with access to a safer floor and higher ceiling.
Running Back: Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Week 1 Results: (Projected) 18.1, (Actual) 9.7
The concerns were laid out prior to draft day. There was no certainty that the Chargers would continue passing to running backs at 30.3% (fourth-highest in 2019) with Philip Rivers’ departure. Dual-threat quarterbacks haven’t historically had positive effects on pass-catching running backs. Taylor’s typically been a part of low-volume passing games. All of those concerns were on display in Week 1. The Chargers passed on 44.8% of their plays when the game was within one score. Ekeler only received 1 target. Joshua Kelley got brought in to finish scoring drives. Week 1 shouldn’t cause overreactions, but we’ll need to take a closer look at Ekeler’s outlook as we head into Week 2.
Advice Moving Forward:
Don’t accept buy-low offers; hold for now. Ekeler’s 2019 usage only garnered 30.5% of the RB rushing share from Weeks 5 – 16 once Melvin Gordon rejoined the team from his holdout. His rush rate increased to 57.6%, but his target share plummeted to 3.3%. Anthony Lynn admitted Ekeler’s targets may be limited, but he still ran the ninth-most routes of all RBs in Week 1 (23). Joshua Kelley was used on the goal-line, but Kelly’s attempt was after two rush attempts from within the red zone from Ekeler. After just a 22.0% red-zone usage in 2019, Ekeler actually took a step forward in Week 1. He just didn’t get a chance to convert in favor of the rookie. Regardless, the Chargers face the Chiefs in Week 2. David Johnson was third in success rate for all rushers in Week 1 and was also involved in the passing game while the Texans attempted to catch up to the Chiefs. The game environment sets up similarly for Ekeler making his majority rush share more productive in Week 2. We’ll need to monitor his targets moving forward, but there is a path for him to reclaim some of his value moving forward.
Wide Receiver: Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
Week 1 Results: (Projected) 9.5, (Actual) 1.6
Hardman’s WR47 ADP compared to Sammy Watkins at WR60 more closely reflected the fantasy community’s evaluation than reality. Hardman has the 4.33-speed and second-round draft capital, but Watkins’ maintained a dominant 22% target share when healthy. In addition, both receivers would either be the third or fourth option for Patrick Mahomes behind Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and either Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Darrel Williams. All of those concerns were on display in Week 1. Hardman earned only a single target with just a 29% snap share. With such a discrepancy in expectations for the second-yard speedster, we’ll need to adjust our expectations for Hardman moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
Don’t drop him despite the rough start. It’s just one game and there are a few things working in Hardman’s favor. First, there’s a chance he moves up in the pecking order. Demarcus Robinson accrued 6 targets (all classified as catchable targets), but only hauled in 3 while being credited with a drop. Robinson’s poor outing lends credence to the idea that Hardman could at least see more snaps in place of Robinson as the season progresses. He’ll still be at the bottom of the passing tree, but increased snaps would lead to increased targets. We should also see more passing from the Chiefs in general. Kansas City only passed at a 57.9% rate when the game was within one score and Mahomes only attempted 3 passes of more than 15 air yards. Both metrics wildly deviate from 2019’s as the Chiefs were first in neutral passing rate and Mahomes attempted 11.2 deep passes per game. Hardman’s speed lends itself to deeper targets which weren’t a part of their offensive game plan in Week 1. Both points are worth monitoring over the next week as Hardman’s value starts to decline.
