A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
They gave us 29 names. That's a lot.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the runaway top vote-getter, it was James Conner with eight. And the next highest on the list was David Johnson with four.
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 8 Votes
James Conner, Pittsburgh
Phil Alexander: The Steelers' offensive line is aging but still one of the best in the league. Mike Tomlin has a history of riding a single running back for as long as he has the option. And we've seen Conner finish as one of the best running backs in fantasy already. Even in a lost season for Pittsburgh, Conner was the RB9 in PPR leagues after eight games in 2019 before injuries tanked his second half. Ben Roethlisberger's return and better luck in the health department can boost Conner back inside the top-5 fantasy running backs.
Sigmund Bloom: Conner has been a fantasy RB1 when he has started with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, and he was able to stay afloat in fantasy value despite poor quarterback play. His durability is obviously in question, but his drop in ADP from the first round in 2019 is too much. He can be your second RB1 as an RB2 or your RB1 after getting advantages at other positions for as long as he holds up.
James Brimacombe: The Steelers offense was a mess last season as they were playing with second and third-string quarterbacks and the rest of the offense just never could take off because of it. Conner missed six games in 2019 and still collected 725 total yards and seven touchdowns and finished the RB33. With the hopes of Ben Roethlisberger back to full health, the Steelers offense as a whole will see a big increase, and hopefully, Conner can see his numbers like the 2018 season where he finished as RB6 with 1470 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games.
Andrew Davenport: It is a reasonable reaction for fantasy drafters to be worried about Conner's health. He hasn't finished either of the last two seasons without an injury and it's fair to start wondering if he can hold up under a workhorse level of touches. But pushing him down the board as far as he's going is an overreaction. With Ben Roethlisberger returning to the offense Conner is in almost the same situation he was entering 2019 where he was being talked about as a top of the draft possibility. His risk is baked into his ADP - in fact, he's fallen so far that now he presents tremendous value if he can stay on the field for 12+ games for the Steelers. Snatch him up and enjoy the discount.
Jeff Haseley: Conner has some injury/health risk to him, but it is baked into his draft position. The Steelers are projected to be a top offense with the return of Ben Roethlisberger and the strength of their growing talent at wide receiver. Conner has shown he can be a double-digit touchdown scorer with 50+ receptions in the past. If he does it again or comes close, he will be one of the better draft steals.
Ryan Hester: There's little to add that the masses here haven't said about Conner already other than to say that Pittsburgh's skill guys are being selected as though a quarterback with abilities somewhere between Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph were leading this offense. But as far as we know from reports, Roethlisberger is healthy. Take the Pittsburgh guys at a discount. Injury and a teammate overtaking him are more likely to tank Conner's prospects than Roethlisberger's health. Injury can be discounted because we face that risk with every fantasy pick. And while Pittsburgh's other backs offer a variety of skills, none offers as much versatility in one player as Conner has.
Dan Hindery: The Steelers offense has proven it can support a fantasy RB1 when Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. In fact, Conner finished as the RB6 in 2018 despite missing three games. Unlike many teams, the Steelers prefer to ride a single workhorse back. Conner should be that guy. If so, he will easily outperform his current ADP. It is also easy to grab Benny Snell late as an injury handcuff and lock up the Steelers backfield.
Matt Waldman: If you read my work throughout the spring and summer, you know that I've been touting him as the biggest value among early-round players, period. Last year when Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster battled injury and Ben Roethlisberger was gone for most of the year, Conner's yards after contact accounted for 57 percent of his rushing yards because as good as his offensive line is, a subpar passing game allows opponents to focus on stopping the run as a priority. In 2018, a healthy Conner, Roethlisberger, and Smith-Schuster made a big difference for Conner and the offensive line's production as a top-10 fantasy option who averaged a broken tackle at an elite ratio of one per every 10.8 attempts. Conner is healthy, an excellent receiver, and will be the feature back. He's going to be a top-10 fantasy RB.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
David Johnson, Houston
Andrew Davenport: The question that needs to be asked before drafting David Johnson is: can he outperform Carlos Hyde? It is hyperbole to think he can't. Johnson has had a couple of injury-plagued seasons and the fantasy community is stuck on the way Johnson looked last year while battling lower-body injuries. The Texans will try to justify their trade for Johnson by giving him at least the number of touches that Hyde got (255). That makes Johnson's floor 1,100 yards and 250+ opportunities. If the Texans decide to get him 40 catches to go with his rushing load he can easily outperform his draft slot. Enjoy the skepticism about Johnson and enjoy the value as he's usually one of the last running backs on the board who can call himself a workhorse.
Ryan Hester: This selection is as much due to what Houston feels about Duke Johnson Jr as it is a singing-of-praises for David Johnson. Last year, Carlos Hyde clearly led Houston's backfield. If David Johnson is treated the same way, he'll do much more with the work than Hyde did.
Andy Hicks: David Johnson had trouble fitting in under Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. Houston saw a franchise back worth chasing and in one of the more ludicrous trades of recent memory he ends up as the engine room for the offense in Houston. Bill O’Brien will want this trade to work so it would be wise to expect Johnson to be used heavily in all facets of the offense. There are very few three-down backs in the NFL right now and one like Johnson at his best is an RB1 if he plays 16 games. He has proven to be an elite fantasy producer in the past for a coach that wants to use him and while he is a risk, he should easily be worth the investment
Sigmund Bloom: David Johnson could return to form this year, but there's a healthy amount of doubt, reflected in his ADP. If that doubt is warranted, Duke Johnson Jr is poised to get more touches, especially in the red zone and passing game. Johnson wasn't a consistent fantasy contributor last year, but he had RB2/Flex level weeks in PPR leagues, and a small bump in opportunity could make him a solid RB2. We know he can still play, and the Houston targets should be more spread out with DeAndre Hopkins gone to Arizona. Johnson is too cheap to pass on just to see if David Johnson is washed up or not in the first few weeks of play.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay
Andy Hicks: The Packers are giving every indication of not paying Aaron Jones beyond this year. The phenomenal season by Jones last year is a likely blip, but Jones and his agent will believe he is due a big payday. Picking A.J. Dillon in the second round allows Green Bay to ease the rookie in depending on his acclimation to the system. Dillon is a big back but has the speed to threaten any defense. It is unlikely that we see much of Dillon early so if you can stash him away do so. By seasons end he should be pressing his claims to be the 2021 starter and the team will need to see him in real action.
Dan Hindery: Most of Dillon’s fantasy upside is as a handcuff to Aaron Jones. Where Dillon is being drafted, he is a solid value on injury upside alone. Dillon as the lead back in this Packers offense could put up huge fantasy numbers. Jones is a bit undersized and has a bit of injury history. Dillon also has some upside in a committee role with Jones. He could quickly emerge as the go-to red zone back. Jones scored 19 touchdowns last year so the short-yardage role alone would go a long way’s towards making Dillon a solid flex option.
Jeff Pasquino: Rookie A.J. Dillon was added by the Packers late in Round 2 (61st overall pick) back in April, and the big back will try to prove that he can become the longer-term starter for Green Bay. Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are in contract years, so if Dillon proves capable of inheriting a starter role next season, expect it to take place as Jones will likely command a prohibitive second contract. Dillon needs to prove himself as a receiver and a pass blocker to become a true feature back, so pay close attention to his usage on passing downs this preseason and throughout the 2020 campaign.
Chase Edmonds, Arizona
Phil Alexander: Everyone remembers the 27-126-3 rushing line Edmonds hung on the Giants last season. But he had been making the most of his carries in the weeks preceding his breakout game. If it hadn't been for a poorly-timed hamstring injury, maybe the Kenyan Drake trade never happens, and it's Edmonds who has the early-second round ADP. He may be more involved in the weekly game plan than most are counting on and has league-tilting upside if Drake gets hurt or can't hack it in his first full season as a feature back.
James Brimacombe: It is hard to ignore Kenyan Drake ahead of Edmonds on the depth chart but after Drake and Edmonds there is not much there. Edmonds plays in an offense that plays fast one that if Drake happened to get sidelined it would be next man up to play that RB1 role. Edmonds showed what he could do in a full-time role in Week 7 against the Giants when he had 27 attempts for 126 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Edmonds is one of the best late-round handcuffs available in this year's drafts.
Ryan Hester: At this point in drafts, taking a backup with RB1 upside is the preferred course of action over selecting a starter on a poor offense whose upside is that of a middling RB2 at most. Players like Edmonds, Alexander Mattison, and Duke Johnson Jr are capable playmakers in good offenses behind backs with injury histories. Their ceiling is significantly higher than a player like Adrian Peterson.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay
Jeff Haseley: The Buccaneers have indicated that Jones will be a key factor in their offense, particularly their ground game. Their offense was strong last year which should continue in 2020 and perhaps be even more efficient thanks to the presence of Tom Brady. Jones has bulked up to 225 pounds and is eager to move forward as a key member of the offensive structure. If he handles duties like expected, he should be able to reach 6-8 touchdowns as a floor with the possibility for more.
Chad Parsons: Jones is one of the lowest-priced projected Week 1 starting running backs and is in the prime window for a breakout season. Jones rebounded from a flat rookie season to show signs in 2019. The eroded version of LeSean McCoy and a late Day 2 rookie with a middling profile in Ke'Shawn Vaughn is hardly strong competition added this offseason. Even the touchdown upside alone of being the starting back for a Tom Brady-led offense (plus the passing game weapons) is worth the 2020 price of admission for Jones.
Matt Waldman: Jones is one of those players who fit some of the community's ignorance of accurately identifying skill development at the position so you better exploit that ignorance to your benefit. Jones transformed his awful and hesitant decision-making as a rookie to a logical, anticipatory runner last year. He also added muscle last year and broke tackles at a rate of 1 per 7.5 attempts, one of the best rates among backs last year. He caught enough passes last year to show he had the skill to build on and Bruce Arians remarked that Jones is even better after an offseason of work. Arian has also stated that Jones will be the feature back in an offense filled with all-star skill talent haded by Tom Brady and the rest of the backs are battling for looks "when Jones gets tired." Jones is easily a top-15 fantasy back this year.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco
Jeff Haseley: Last year marked the first time in five seasons that Raheem Mostert cracked 130 carries in a season. He always had the talent and the drive to be a reliable, productive back, however, the opportunity to consistently thrive was never there, until Kyle Shanahan put him into the spotlight in Week 13 last season. Mostert's carries jumped and the results followed. He finished as the 9th ranked PPR running back from Weeks 13-17, scoring seven touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry behind one of the better offensive lines in football. He is the front-runner to be the 49ers primary ball carrier heading into 2020 and expectations should not be any different from the back half of 2019. He is being drafted after the top 25 running backs are off the board, but his production could exceed that rather easily.
Matt Waldman: Tevin Coleman is one of the most line-dependent and space-dependent producers among NFL running backs. HIs ratio of broken tackles to attempts is a rate where he needs approximately two games of touches to break a tackle. While he has improved as a runner, his power is momentum based and his vision is merely competent. Mostert has much better vision, naturally better change-of-direction skills, and greater versatility with blocking schemes. The 49ers have a great offensive line and when Mostert made demands, the team capitulated because they know Jerick McKinnon has no track record of health or real success as a lead back and that Coleman is a complementary piece. Mostert has added muscle, like Ronald Jones II did last year, to handle a bigger workload and even if he's only a lead back in this 49ers committee, he should earn 240-260 carries. If his competition falters, he's a dark horse for at least the conference rushing title if given a true feature role thanks to his line.
Jason Wood: Raheem Mostert's 2019 heroics are what fantasy football is all about. A 27-year old journeyman who had barely seen the field outside of some special teams units was thrust into the center of Kyle Shanahan's dynamic rushing attack and turned into the 49ers key offensive touchstone over the second half of the season, and into the playoffs. Mostert averaged 27% of the 49ers offensive snaps until Week 12; when he played 74% of the plays against the Ravens. From Week 12 through the Super Bowl, Mostert played 58% of the snaps; which is in-line with most workhorse backs throughout the league. In those eight games, he was on pace for 234 carries for 1,430 rushing yards (6.1 per carry), 18 catches for 154 yards, and 24 touchdowns. With Matt Breida traded to Miami, and the 49ers notably quiet in the draft, Mostert enters the preseason as the favorite for the No. 1 role. We saw nothing last year to suggest he's not up for the challenge.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
LeVeon Bell, NY Jets
Jeff Haseley: Generally, I try to stay away from running backs on challenging offenses unless they are a key fixture of the passing game. In the case with Bell, he is both a productive rusher and receiver. His draft location outside of the top 15 reflects the Jets offense more than his ability. Bell had 14 games last season where he topped 50+ total rushing and receiving yards. That's two more than Miles Sanders and three more than Kenyan Drake. Bell has always been a well-conditioned athlete and has indicated that he is ready and prepared for a long COVID-risk season.
Chad Parsons: Bell is an older veteran running back coming off a career-low (mid-RB2 level) finish. As a result, Bell is priced as if last year is the best-case scenario for the historically productive back through this point in his career. A healthy Sam Darnold alone will aid Bell's chances for upside as the Jets morphed into a college offense from decades ago with sparse passing and middling (being kind) quarterback play. Give Bell a quasi-functional passing game (Darnold offers at least that) and the RB1 ceiling (and probably is the floor) returns.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Andy Hicks: Nick Chubb is a good old fashioned franchise back. 20+ carries every game, a few receptions, and touchdowns. He had at least 15 carries in every meaningful appearance in 2019 and is carrying this franchises offense. He will be a touchdown machine once the offense starts humming, something profoundly missing so far. The presence of Kareem Hunt is not that important. Hunt is a complementary back who spells Chubb as a runner and takes the majority of third downs. Chubb is likely to be the most reliable running back you can get after the big names are gone.
Matt Waldman: I'm adding Chubb here to prove a point because I think most of my peers are going to say he's overvalued due to the presence of Kareem Hunt. I think this is a misguided notion based on Hunt's talent, box score production in last year's scheme, and ignorance about the new scheme under Kevin Stefanski. The first point is understandable: Hunt is a top-12 RB talent with elite production potential. It's hard people to grasp that Chubb is the clearly better back unless you really study the position with a fine eye. Chubb is a better tackle breaker, faster, and more accomplished with a variety of run schemes. He's also a better receiver than characterized. Hunt's stretch-run was under a different coaching regime and scheme that failed miserably with a cohesive and strategic approach to offense. This year, Stefanski brings Gary Kubiak's' run game from Minnesota that features ONE back and only one back on the field a vast majority of the time and uses a ton of fullback, H-Back, and tight end looks to lead the way for that runner. Hunt will get enough touches to maybe earn fantasy RB3 production. Chubb's floor is low-end RB1 production with Hunt. Without Hunt, Chubb is the best back and fantasy back in football.
Jordan Howard, Miami
Andrew Davenport: It is rare to be able to find a running back being drafted as late as Howard is that has the potential to get the number of touches he does. Obviously Miami isn't an offensive powerhouse, and he'll have to contend with Matt Breida. But over the course of Howard's career, he has averaged 9 touchdowns per 16 games, and he's been a solid performer when given the chance. His problem is that he languished in Chicago in a poor offense, and then when he finally got going in Philadelphia last year he got hurt. From Weeks 1 to 9 (he sat from Week 10 on) he ranked as the PPR RB16, and he didn't receive double-digit touches until Week 3. Counting just Weeks 3 to 9 when he had 11+ touches in every game he was the RB11. The Eagles offensive line is surely better than Miami's, as is the offense as a whole, but it isn't far-fetched to believe that he can earn 200 carries and score 6-8 touchdowns. That kind of production as late as he's being drafted has excellent value.
Jeff Pasquino: Jordan Howard signed a two-year $10M+ contract to join Miami as their lead tailback, but there are several reasons to be cautious. Howard is on his third team (Chicago, Philadelphia) is coming off of an injury (shoulder) that cost him nearly half last season, and now he is joining a Dolphins team that is expected to be below average on offense. If that was not enough reason to be concerned about Howard, Miami traded for Matt Breida to split time in the backfield, especially on passing downs. The good news is this Howard is well outside the Top 32 running backs, offering strong value if he takes a clear first position on the depth chart.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis
Dan Hindery: Taylor probably would have received a huge ADP bump if he went out in the preseason and impressed. He will not have that opportunity, which means he should remain a solid bargain near his current ADP. While Taylor and Marlon Mack are likely to split carries early in the season, by the fantasy playoffs, Taylor should be the guy. It is worth rolling the dice on the upside and the potential Taylor ends up being an elite option by midseason.
Matt Waldman: Taylor is the best pure runner of the rookie class with a predilection for gap schemes on a team that runs gap as well as any in the league. The Colts are a physical offensive that has helped Marlon Mack become a strong fantasy RB2 after Mack took a couple of years to learn the fine points of decision-making and footwork. Taylor needs no such ramp-up time, and he's bigger, stronger, faster, and more refined than Mack right now. What's missing is proven pass protection and some ball-security concerns. Still, the Colts have already declared this backfield a "hot-hand" situation between Mack and Taylor. If Taylor does what he's easily capable of doing, Mack will be a change of pace by Week 5 at the latest and Taylor will be delivering Top-10 fantasy RB production during his stretch as the lead runner.
James White, New England
Andrew Davenport: The reaction to Tom Brady leaving New England has been fantasy owners pushing all of their skill position players way down the board. But White might be one of those who benefits from a less dynamic Patriots offense. Whether it's Jarrett Stidham or Cam Newton doesn't really matter, New England is going to have to use White liberally to move the football. They don't have a legitimate tight end, their running back corps is suspect, and their wide receivers aren't a great group either. White has averaged almost 80 catches a year the past two seasons and it isn't hard to envision him eclipsing that number this year. White's ADP last summer was a bit suspect, but this summer it has plummeted and made him a strong value.
Jason Wood: White has 275 receptions in the last four seasons and ranked RB7 and RB19 in the last two years in PPR formats. Sony Michel is hurt and looks questionable to start the season. The Patriots will either be starting unproven Jarrett Stidham or comeback player Cam Newton, both are likely to pepper White with dump-off passes. There's not a tight end on the roster who seems likely to catch 30 passes. And outside of Julian Edelman, the team has one of the sketchiest receiving corps in the AFC. Even if White doesn't touch the ball as a runner, he's worth drafting in PPR formats because he's the team's defacto slot receiver. But he will get some carries, too, and has a floor value that's multiple rounds higher than his current ADP.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Matt Breida, Miami
James Brimacombe: Breida has been a nice back in San Fransisco in his three years in the league. He has always been in a timeshare with the 49ers but when given the touches he has produced and has finished as the RB45, RB24, and RB43 during those three seasons and has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and found the endzone 10 times in 42 total games. Now with his transition the Dolphins, Breida has a new opportunity to battle it out with Jordan Howard as the number one back in Miami. Breida brings some passing down skills that could help him find the field more over Howard and the Dolphins, in general, look like a team on the rise.
Chris Carson, Seattle
Jeff Pasquino: Seattle is proclaimed as a run-first offense, but in truth, it is a balanced attack that features both the run game and a strong passing offense with Russell Wilson. Both complement one another, affording opportunities for Wilson and Chris Carson as the lead back in the Seattle backfield. Carson is in a contract year and is coming off of a fractured hip, but all reports have him ready to go for Week 1. Carson will be pushing to perform well once again in 2020 as he plays for a major contract to be signed next off-season, making him a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago
Jeff Haseley: Tarik Cohen has amassed 53, 71, and 79 receptions in his three years with Chicago. He has proven to be a consistent weekly option in PPR leagues and yet he is still available after the top 30 backs come off the board. He finished second on the team in receptions last year behind only Allen Robinson and he had 27 more receptions than the next closest player, Anthony Miller. He had eight games with five or more receptions last year which is enough to use as a flex option in PPR leagues.
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco
Phil Alexander: If you want to invest in the 49ers running game, pass on Raheem Mostert and draft Coleman three rounds later. San Francisco's backfield is a timeshare. What proof do we have Coleman won't play the 1A? A week before Mostert's famed 29-220-4 rushing line (against Green Bay's abysmal rush defense) in last year's playoffs, it was Coleman who went for 22-105-2 against a much tougher opponent (Minnesota). Head coach Kyle Shanahan will ride the hot hand from week-to-week, and at least Coleman has some upside as a pass-catcher out of the backfield in the weeks Mostert gets the lion's share of carries.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers
Danny Tuccitto: In PPR formats, Ekeler is the value version of Alvin Kamara. As a receiver, Ekeler ranks second in True Receptions per Route Run, first in True Yards per Route Run, and first in True Touchdowns per Route Run among running backs in the Top 150. For comparison, Kamara's rankings are first, second, and seventh, respectively. There's a significant difference between the two as runners -- Ekeler's 18th in True Yards per Carry and 51st in True Touchdowns per Carry; Kamara's 5th and 2nd -- but the 162 carries in 2019 that disappeared when Melvin Gordon moved to Denver for 2020 have to reappear somewhere. And neither Justin Jackson nor Joshua Kelley (yet) has the pedigree to fill that gap entirely, especially early in the season. They also don't figure to usurp too much of Ekeler's running work this season given that the Chargers just resigned him in March to a deal that can't easily get ripped up until after 2021.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville
Chad Parsons: Fournette has three straight top-12 seasons in PPR PPG and yet still has a fantasy market stink to him as a Rodney Dangerfield type (no respect). Fournette is one of the few backs who rarely leaves the field with a high ceiling if his touchdowns even marginally increase in 2020. Chris Thompson offers some semblance of competition for passing downs, but Thompson has his own durability issues and is older than most would think (30) to not make his presence a reason to downgrade Fournette even in PPR formats.
Melvin Gordon, Denver
Sigmund Bloom: Gordon was signed to be the #1 back and he should get goal-line work and most of the targets in the new Pat Shurmur offense. Phillip Lindsay will get some touches, but Gordon's role should *at least* be what he got with the Chargers after he ended his holdout last year, which was close to top 10-12 production even with Austin Ekeler taking up a lot of targets and more touches than Lindsay will get this year. The offensive line in Denver is under construction but it can't be worse than the Chargers line last year.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis
Sigmund Bloom: Hines looked like the most explosive player on the field for the Colts even though he was underused. Enter Philip Rivers, who made a fantasy star out of Austin Ekeler, and now Hines could get the opportunity in the passing game to be a consistent PPR contributor with the potential for big play and volume week spikes. Hines costs nothing but could easily level off as an every-week RB2 in PPR leagues.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore
Jeff Pasquino: The Ravens are a run-first team, and Ingram will be the top running back. As seen last year, there is plenty of production to go around between Ingram and quarterback Lamar Jackson, along with rookie J.K. Dobbins. Ingram has been a Top 15 running back in five of the last six seasons, including last year (RB8). Owning the top rusher on the top rushing team sounds like a great idea, and his value is hard to beat.
Justin Jackson, LA Chargers
James Brimacombe: This one comes down to an open opportunity in LA as Melvin Gordon is now in Denver and even with Austin Ekeler's breakout from a year ago it was Gordon who scored nine touchdowns in 12 games. Jackson might be in a battle with rookie Joshua Kelley but he should have the first crack at winning a majority of those vacant Melvin Gordon touches and comes at a huge discount at the end of your drafts.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit
Andy Hicks: Detroit seems to be on a never-ending quest to find their first franchise running back since Barry Sanders retired. Countless backs have been drafted high, tried, and for one reason or another failed. With the Lions drafting D’Andre Swift in the second round it appears as though the 2018 second-rounder Kerryon Johnson is on the scrapheap. Two injury-riddled seasons for Johnson have made the team look elsewhere. Problem is Johnson has looked the part and will get first shot this year. If and it’s a big if, he stays healthy he will be hard to displace. He is one of those high upside, low downside players that are sometimes hard to draft, but when they pay off they can win leagues.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay
Jason Wood: Due respect to my colleagues, but many labeled Jones overvalued, and couldn't be more wrong if they thought the Jaguars are going to be Super Bowl champions. Jones is one of the true values of the early rounds. Yes, his 19 touchdowns last year will be hard to replicate, but he doesn't have to come close to scoring 19 times to justify a higher draft slot. He gained more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage along with 49 receptions as one of the main engines in Matt LaFleur's offense. What's changed? The team added A.J. Dillon in the draft, but he's a threat to Jamaal Williams as the No. 2, not to Jones. We know Jones can be a league-winner, we don't have to project any growth or change in role. Fantasy analysts too often fall in love with what might be, at the expense of celebrating what is.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis
Jason Wood: Jonathan Taylor nearly had three 2,000-yard seasons at Wisconsin; it's entirely rational to be excited about his NFL future. But the pandemic has kept players far removed from normalcy, and it's hard to imagine the Colts handing over the backfield to a rookie before seeing him master blitz pickups and intricate line calls. Marlon Mack isn't as explosive, but he's a proven goal-line back, understands the offense, and has Frank Reich's trust. With veteran Philip Rivers under center, it's paramount the starting tailback can be trusted to play mistake-free football. Mack may not help you win your league in the fantasy playoffs, but he should help you get off to a great start in September and October.
Sony Michel, New England
Andy Hicks: It is easy to fall into the trap of assuming the Patriots are running back by committee. If we look at the game by game breakdown last year we can see that there were only two instances of a non-Sony Michel running back registering 10 or more carries. Michel had 11 games with at least 15 carries. Indeed, he was not part of the game plan more often than you would like, but when he was it was all him. If Jarrett Stidham is the starter, expect the ball to be run often and Michel to be the dominant ball carrier. If Cam Newton is the starter expect Newton to allow much more variety for Michel running the ball. Good luck finding a running back available where Michel is falling that will touch the ball that much. Injury issues notwithstanding, Bill Belichick trusts him. He may not have the highest upside, but he should outperform his draft slot significantly.
David Montgomery, Chicago
James Brimacombe: There were big hopes for the Bears entering the 2019 season, and it was supposed to all start with their rookie running back David Montgomery. The offense struggled and Montgomery suffered because of it as he finished as RB21 recording 889 rushing yards, six touchdowns, 25 receptions, 185 receiving yards, and another touchdown. Montgomery is taking a hit during drafts this year because of what the Bears lacked last year but entering his second season there is upside on a turnaround season at his current cost.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans
Jeff Pasquino: While the Saints have Alvin Kamara as their primary back, New Orleans shares the workload with their second option to keep both players fresh. This used to be Mark Ingram, but Latavius Murray took over that role last year, posting respectable numbers (872 total yards, six touchdowns). Murray gets roughly 10-15 touches per game including a few shots at the end zone in goal-line situations, making him a flex option at tailback most weeks. Murray's value would skyrocket if Kamara misses any time, as the veteran and former starter can easily step in for a full workload.
Adrian Peterson, Washington
Jeff Pasquino: Adrian Peterson simply does not age - or at least, that is how it appears. The 35-year old veteran has led Washington in rushing the past two seasons thanks to injuries to Derrius Guice, but Peterson's numbers have been more than pedestrian. With over 1,900 yards and 13 scores in the past two seasons, Peterson was considered at worst a must-own handcuff to Guice, but now that Guice is no longer on the team, the path to a starting role is clear once again for Peterson so long as he can hold off the inexperienced younger backs on the roster.
Boston Scott, Philadelphia
Andrew Davenport: The Eagles are going to give Miles Sanders plenty of work. But there will still be another relevant running back in Philadelphia. The backfield as a whole had 476 opportunities in 2019 and that shouldn't differ greatly in 2020 as none of the numbers were huge outliers. Even giving Sanders 300 touches (which is probably high) leaves plenty of chances for other ball carriers to earn a stand-alone role for fantasy purposes. Plenty of people are questioning whether Scott can be that guy after bouncing around the league and never earning a place on an NFL team before last year, but he certainly showed that he can do it. If his price tag was spiking based on his finish he wouldn't be worth the risk of him turning out to be merely a flash in the pan. But at his current ADP, he has plenty of room to deliver value. In his four games at the end of the year where he earned significant snap-shares, he posted 20.5 PPR points per game and caught 6 passes per contest. Those numbers won't happen with Sanders around, but if he earns the second-most snaps behind Sanders he'll deliver solid value on draft day.
