Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 6 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the nine NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- Baltimore Ravens (vs CIN) - 29.50 points
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs HOU) - 29.50 points
- Atlanta Falcons (at ARI) - 27.00 points
- Los Angeles Rams (vs SF) - 26.75 points
- Dallas Cowboys (at NYJ) - 25.75 points
- Houston Texans (at KC) - 25.50 points
- Arizona Cardinals (vs ATL) - 24.50 points
- Seattle Seahawks (at CLE) - 24.00 points
- Los Angeles Chargers (vs PIT) - 24.00 points
Injury/Inactive Watch
- RB David Johnson, ARI - If David Johnson scratches, Chase Edmonds ($8,500) becomes a must-start in all builds. Edmonds has a similar skillset to Johnson so he should see a lot of looks regardless of game script.
- WR Christian Kirk, ARI - Should he scratch, WR Larry Fitzgerald vaults into my must-play list as well. He is already a quality play this week, but this would nearly ensure he would receive the target and red zone value to deliver value in all formats.
- If WR Marquise Brown and/or TE Mark Andrews are inactive, RB Mark Ingram would likely see an increased role. The data already suggests Baltimore should play smash-mouth football against a Bengals team that is inept at stopping the run. This would just lock in that scenario before the game is played.
Situations that stand out to me this week
- 49ers Passing Offense vs Rams Passing Defense - The 49ers have averaged 257 yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since week 2 while the Rams are yielding 263 yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns during the same time frame. The 49ers are underdogs on the road so the game script could also favor an aerial attack.
- Chiefs Passing Offense vs Texans Passing Defense - The Chiefs are averaging 363 passing yards and 2.0 touchdown over the last 4 weeks. The Texans have yielded 273 yards and 1.5 touchdowns through the air during that same timeframe. The Chiefs have an implied team total of 29.50 points. If this becomes a game of pitch-and-catch for Mahomes, he might crack 300 yards by halftime.
- Falcons Passing Offense vs Cardinals Passing Defense - The Falcons have generated 338 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns through the air over the last 4 weeks. Arizona can't stop the run or the pass and has yielded 259 yards and 2.2 touchdowns through the air over the same timeframe. Matt Ryan is my top cash-game play at quarterback. He should have an easy time throwing to his vast arsenal of weapons in the passing game.
- Ravens Rush Offense vs Bengals Rush Defense - Baltimore is averaging 174 yards and 1.2 touchdowns rushing per game over the last 4 weeks. The Bengals don't tackle and are getting mauled at the line of scrimmage. Over those same 4 weeks, the Bengals have yielded 192 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on the ground. Both Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram should have easy sledding. The only thing capping Mark Ingram's fantasy value is he rarely catches passes in this offense.
- Packers Rush Offense vs Lions Rush Defense - The Packers are averaging 105 yards and 2.0 touchdowns on the ground since week 2 while the Lions funnel everything to the run. This approach has stifled opponent's passing efforts, but the Lions have yielded 129 yards and 1.7 touchdowns rushing over the last 4 weeks. RB Aaron Jones should be the prime benefactor of Detroit's defensive scheme.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $21,100, FP = 37.3, Ratio = 1.77)
- RB Phillip Lindsay / TD Denver Broncos (Cost = $14,900, FP = 26.1, Ratio = 1.75)
- QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $22,500, FP = 38, Ratio = 1.69)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Mohamed Sanu (Cost = $20,900, FP = 34.5, Ratio = 1.65)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Gerald Everett (Cost = $18,400, FP = 29.8, Ratio = 1.62)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $25,300, FP = 40.2, Ratio = 1.59)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $22,000, FP = 34.9, Ratio = 1.59)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Amari Cooper (Cost = $24,600, FP = 38.6, Ratio = 1.57)
- QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $24,300, FP = 38.2, Ratio = 1.57)
- RB Leonard Fournette / TD Jacksonville Jaguars (Cost = $18,700, FP = 29.3, Ratio = 1.57)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,000, FP = 42.5, Ratio = 1.57)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $27,400, FP = 42.8, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Calvin Ridley (Cost = $22,700, FP = 35.5, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo / TE George Kittle (Cost = $20,700, FP = 32.1, Ratio = 1.55)
- QB Andy Dalton / WR Tyler Boyd (Cost = $22,200, FP = 34.1, Ratio = 1.54)
- QB Andy Dalton / WR Auden Tate (Cost = $18,200, FP = 27.5, Ratio = 1.51)
- QB Teddy Bridgewater / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $24,300, FP = 36.2, Ratio = 1.49)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $27,700, FP = 40.9, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $27,100, FP = 39.7, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $23,200, FP = 33.2, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR Will Fuller V (Cost = $26,200, FP = 37.3, Ratio = 1.42)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz
- RBs: Austin Ekeler, Tevin Coleman, Royce Freeman, James Conner, Mark Ingram
- WRs: Jamison Crowder, Ted Ginn Jr, Auden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Mohamed Sanu
- TEs: Jared Cook, Gerald Everett, Delanie Walker, Vance McDonald, Will Dissly
- Def: Jacksonville, Miami, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore, New York Jets
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ ATL Stack Projected Points = (162.1)
- QB Matt Ryan, ATL - $12,100
- RB Le'Veon Bell, NYJ - $13,600
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $13,800
- TE Austin Hooper, ATL - $9,000
- WR Michael Thomas, NO - $13,800
- WR Courtland Sutton, DEN - $9,300
- Flex: RB Nick Chubb, CLE - $13,700
- Flex: RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN - $9,400
- TD Washington Redskins, WAS - $5,200