Going into the 2018 season, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen appeared to be nice complementary players. Howard's thunder could rumble on the ground while Cohen's lightning would flash as a receiver. The results weren't bad, but the Bears obviously didn't care to continue with that tandem and let Howard leave in the offseason.
In Howard's place, Chicago brought in veteran Mike Davis and drafted rookie David Montgomery to fill out the backfield with Cohen. How will this trio of backs split the workload? Is the pie big enough in Chicago? Does your preferred target here depend heavily on your league's scoring system?
Andy Hicks
Mike Davis will be the steady veteran presence if and until David Montgomery is ready. Tarik Cohen’s role essentially will remain unchanged from last year. The biggest variant with Cohen will be touchdowns. He will essentially have 80-100 carries, with 50-80 receptions. He is probably a safe bottom end RB2 in PPR leagues. The more interesting battle will be between Mike Davis and the rookie. Davis will be in his fifth year and had his best year to date in 2018 with Seattle. He is a solid back, but his playing time will purely be dependant on where David Montogomery is at this year. Some rookies never get it, others need time and some are able to start immediately. Training camp and preseason will be vital for assessing playing time once the season starts. Right now according to ADP it is presumed that Montgomery gets the job sooner, rather than later. That makes Davis incredible value, but the ADP of both these players could fluctuate wildly in July and August. Both Davis and Montgomery are not as valuable in PPR leagues but should get a boost in touchdown leagues.
Phil Alexander
Andy has the right read on Cohen, who can be penciled in as a high-ceiling/low-floor RB2 in PPR formats. Even with Cohen accounting for 99 carries, 89 targets, and eight touchdowns last season, Howard still managed 250 carries and nine touchdowns of his own, so there is plenty of meat on the bone for two fantasy relevant running backs in Chicago.
My money is on Montgomery earning the starting role over Davis before the preseason is over. If the Bears wanted to feature Davis, they wouldn't have traded up 14 spots to draft Montgomery in the third round. Chicago wants their lead back to be functional in the passing game to keep defenses off balance and Montgomery's versatility is his calling card.
Since off-season workouts started, Matt Nagy has been effusive in his praise of Montgomery, most recently admiring the rookie's route-running ability. Davis did well to resurrect his career in Seattle over the last two years. But as long as Montgomery's strong OTAs carry over into the preseason, Davis is little more than injury insurance for the Bears.
Chad Parsons
Especially non-Round 1 NFL rookies, I am more skeptical of an overt early-season role, which includes David Montgomery and his integration with a high role in Chicago. An injury to Mike Davis would change things, but Davis is a classic good enough veteran who can hold a job for a stretch and/or temper a rookie for weeks or even months initially. Davis found a role in Seattle after resurfacing on the NFL radar but was also an early Day 3 pick with three-down appeal years ago entering the league. Montgomery should be a later-season impact for more touches, but Tarik Cohen is a limiting factor to either with his change-of-pace prowess where Davis or Montgomery is more of a bye week or RB3 type than secure weekly starter based on the present depth chart configuration. In terms of team building, Cohen would best in the RB3/4 zone of a depth chart with a tempered ceiling and being unlikely to vault all the way to a top-12 option with consistent weekly touches of 15 or more like a true fantasy difference maker.
Jason Wood
I'm not sure Tarik Cohen is the set-it-and-forget-it RB2 my colleagues suggest. He's a fumbling machine, and when I see a front office prioritize the position, both via veteran additions and the draft, I don't buy into Cohen's role staying constant, much less increasing. Cohen is dynamic, but he is more or less a gimmick player, at least in the eyes of the coaching staff based on his usage. I'm not saying Cohen will be irrelevant, as Mitchell Trubisky is always going to need safety valve dump off options given his conservative nature. I'm just saying Cohen scares me because he's someone I think you're drafting at or near their upside outcome.
It's really nothing more than an educated coin flip right now, but I tend to agree with the other guys on Mike Davis getting the first crack at the starting role but David Montgomery finishing the year in that spot. Montgomery is the future and should be a sought after dynasty asset, but the Bears have the luxury of a veteran hand in Davis to make sure Montgomery has the playbook and, most importantly, the blitz pickups, down pat before handing him the reins.
Ryan Hester
This is one of those situations where dots can be connected. Below are the main factors:
- Chicago's 2018 backfield was too predictable (with Howard, they ran; with Cohen, they passed).
- Chicago spent plenty of draft capital on Montgomery.
- Chicago coaches have praised Montgomery's pass-catching and route-running abilities.
Chicago's ideal situation is utilizing Montgomery as Option 1a on all three downs to allow its offense to be more multiple. This is similar to Cincinnati's backfield prior to Joe Mixon's arrival. When Jeremy Hill was in the game, opposing defenses knew a run was more likely. When Giovani Bernard was in the game, it signaled a passing situation.
Of course, all of the dots connecting isn't a foregone conclusion, especially for a rookie. A Montgomery-dominated backfield will require the proverbial "switch" flipping for him. When (if?) that will happen is difficult to project in mid-June. That leaves a more likely scenario of a split backfield with Davis and Montgomery handling early-down work while Cohen is utilized on third downs.
If drafting now, you're likely in a Best Ball league, which means taking a shot on Montgomery a round or so ahead of ADP is a calculated risk worth taking. It seems logical that he'll take over the primary back role at some point this season and have multiple RB1 weeks as a result.
If you don't draft until your traditional league drafts in mid-August, ideally there is more clarity on the situation by then. If there are any hints of Montgomery having the lion's share of the backfield work, he's worth a pick at wherever his ADP corrects to because he has the skill set required to play on every down.
Dan Hindery
Recent reports out of Chicago have made me grow more bullish on David Montgomery's chances of having a strong rookie season. The exciting aspect of Montgomery's game is his workhorse size and rushing ability combined with excellent skills as a pass catcher. In terms of skill set, the best case comparison has always been Kareem Hunt. Montgomery's offensive coordinator at Iowa State, Tom Manning, also coached Hunt while he was at Toledo and made the comparison between the two. “They both catch the ball really well out of the backfield, they’re a little bit different in their running styles but there’s some similarities,” Manning said. “They’re obviously built a lot alike and I think (they have) the same kind of style, they have the ability to make people miss, they’re smooth in their transitions and they have the ability to put a shoulder down and play calm and be a physical runner and then they both do a great job with catching the football."
Hunt and Montgomery now have another connection in common. The Bears head coach Matt Nagy was the offensive coordinator during Hunt's rookie season of 2017. That year, Hunt was brought in as a third-round pick and led the NFL in rushing yards (1,327) while also catching 53 passes for 435 yards. He was the fantasy RB4 that year.
Ryan's comparison of the Bears backfield to the Bengals is a good one. Howard and Cohen were both too one-dimensional and the Bears clearly wanted a back who could excel in all situations. Enter Montgomery. Joe Mixon's rookie season may also provide a cautionary tale, however. The Bengals eased Mixon in despite his clearly being the best option, forcing a three-man committee through the first half of Mixon's rookie season and causing Mixon to finish as the RB31.
It would be a surprise if Montgomery doesn't lead the Bears backfield in touches in 2018 but it remains a huge unknown how much of a role Mike Davis will have and how many targets Montgomery will end up taking away from Tarik Cohen.
Given the realistic upside of a 1,000-yard, 50-catch rookie season, Montgomery's 4th-round ADP in early best ball drafts is understandable, However, drafting him that highly certainly comes with some risk as well given we are all just guessing at this point how big a role the Bears will give to Montgomery right out of the gate.
Ryan Hester
Well said.
