Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
SUMMARY
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Minnesota | Detroit | -12.5 | 43 | 27.75 | «« | ««« | ««« |
Philadelphia | NY Giants | -9.5 | 45.5 | 27.5 | «« | ««« | « |
Green Bay | Washington | -12 | 42 | 27 | «« | ««« | ««« |
New England | Kansas City | -3 | 49 | 26 | «« | «« | |
Houston | Denver | -9.5 | 42 | 25.75 | « | «« | «« |
Tampa Bay | Indianapolis | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Atlanta | Carolina | -3 | 47 | 25 | « | « | |
NY Jets | Miami | -5 | 45 | 25 | « | « | |
Baltimore | Buffalo | -5.5 | 43.5 | 24.5 | « | « | « |
Tennessee | Oakland | -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Seattle | LA Rams | -0.5 | 48.5 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Cleveland | Cincinnati | -8.5 | 40.5 | 24.5 | « | «« | «« |
LA Rams | Seattle | 0.5 | 48.5 | 24 | « | « | |
New Orleans | San Francisco | -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | |||
Dallas | Chicago | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
LA Chargers | Jacksonville | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
Kansas City | New England | 3 | 49 | 23 | |||
Pittsburgh | Arizona | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
Indianapolis | Tampa Bay | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Carolina | Atlanta | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
Oakland | Tennessee | 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | |||
San Francisco | New Orleans | 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | |||
Miami | NY Jets | 5 | 45 | 20 | |||
Chicago | Dallas | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
Jacksonville | LA Chargers | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
Arizona | Pittsburgh | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
Buffalo | Baltimore | 5.5 | 43.5 | 19 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | 9.5 | 45.5 | 18 | |||
Denver | Houston | 9.5 | 42 | 16.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | 8.5 | 40.5 | 16 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | 12.5 | 43 | 15.25 | |||
Washington | Green Bay | 12 | 42 | 15 |
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Miles Sanders (Eagles), Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (Packers)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Packers, Vikings
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Carlos Hyde (Texans), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert (Eagles), Davante Adams/Geronimo Allison/Allen Lazard/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Julian Edelman/Phillip Dorsett/Jakobi Meyers/Mohamed Sanu (Patriots)
- Defense: Eagles, Chargers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Texans), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Sam Darnold (Jets), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Baker Mayfield (Browns), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), LeVeon Bell (Jets), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Derrick Henry (Titans), Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny (Seahawks), Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Kenny Stills (Texans), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Justin Gage/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Robby Anderson/Jamison Crowder/Demaryius Thomas/Ryan Griffin (Jets), Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), A.J. Brown/Corey Davis/Jonnu Smith (Titans), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Jacob Hollister (Seahawks), Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/Demetrius Harris (Browns), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams)
- Defense: Texans, Eagles, Ravens