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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
SUMMARY
UPDATED SUNDAY, DECEMBER 1st @ 7 AM (EST)
Thanksgiving Day Slate
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
New Orleans | Atlanta | -6.5 | 49 | 27.75 | «« | «« | |
Dallas | Buffalo | -6.5 | 46 | 26.25 | «« | «« | « |
Atlanta | New Orleans | 6.5 | 49 | 21.25 | |||
Chicago | Detroit | -3 | 38.5 | 20.75 | «« | ||
Buffalo | Dallas | 6.5 | 46 | 19.75 | |||
Detroit | Chicago | 3 | 38.5 | 17.75 |
Main Slate
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Oakland | -11 | 50 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Philadelphia | Miami | -10 | 44.5 | 27.25 | «« | ««« | «« |
Seattle | Minnesota | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | NY Giants | -6.5 | 44.5 | 25.5 | « | « | « |
LA Rams | Arizona | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Tampa Bay | Jacksonville | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Baltimore | San Francisco | -5.5 | 44.5 | 25 | « | « | |
Carolina | Washington | -10 | 39.5 | 24.75 | « | «« | ««« |
New England | Houston | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Minnesota | Seattle | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
NY Jets | Cincinnati | -3 | 42.5 | 22.75 | |||
Jacksonville | Tampa Bay | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Arizona | LA Rams | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | « | ||
Indianapolis | Tennessee | -1 | 43 | 22 | |||
Houston | New England | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -3 | 39.5 | 21.25 | «« | ||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 1 | 43 | 21 | « | ||
LA Chargers | Denver | -3.5 | 37.5 | 20.5 | |||
Cincinnati | NY Jets | 3 | 42.5 | 19.75 | |||
Oakland | Kansas City | 11 | 50 | 19.5 | |||
San Francisco | Baltimore | 5.5 | 44.5 | 19.5 | |||
NY Giants | Green Bay | 6.5 | 44.5 | 19 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 3 | 39.5 | 18.25 | |||
Miami | Philadelphia | 10 | 44.5 | 17.25 | |||
Denver | LA Chargers | 3.5 | 37.5 | 17 | |||
Washington | Carolina | 10 | 39.5 | 14.75 |
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: LeSean McCoy/Damien Williams (Chiefs), Miles Sanders/Jay Ajayi (Eagles)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Panthers
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Rashaad Penny (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert (Eagles), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Randall Cobb (Cowboys), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Josh Gordon/Jacob Hollister (Seahawks)
- Defense: Eagles, Chargers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Jared Goff (Rams), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Kyle Allen (Panthers), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (Packers), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Todd Gurley (Rams), Ronald Jones II/Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Geronimo Allison/Allen Lazard/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), , Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Scott Miller/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Curtis Samuel/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Julian Edelman/Phillip Dorsett/Jakobi Meyers (Patriots)
- Defense: Browns, Packers, Jets