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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Oakland | Cincinnati | -10.5 | 49 | 29.75 | ««« | ««« | « |
Dallas | Detroit | -5 | 51.5 | 28.25 | ««« | ««« | |
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -5.5 | 50.5 | 28 | ««« | ««« | |
Kansas City | LA Chargers | -4 | 52 | 28 | ««« | ««« | |
San Francisco | Arizona | -10.5 | 45 | 27.75 | «« | ««« | «« |
Baltimore | Houston | -4 | 51.5 | 27.75 | «« | «« | |
Carolina | Atlanta | -4.5 | 49 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
Minnesota | Denver | -10 | 40 | 25 | « | ««« | ««« |
New England | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Kansas City | 4 | 52 | 24 | « | « | |
Buffalo | Miami | -6.5 | 41 | 23.75 | «« | ||
Houston | Baltimore | 4 | 51.5 | 23.75 | |||
Detroit | Dallas | 5 | 51.5 | 23.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
LA Rams | Chicago | -6 | 39.5 | 22.75 | «« | ||
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 5.5 | 50.5 | 22.5 | |||
Atlanta | Carolina | 4.5 | 49 | 22.25 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | « | ||
Philadelphia | New England | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
Washington | NY Jets | -1.5 | 38.5 | 20 | « | ||
Cincinnati | Oakland | 10.5 | 49 | 19.25 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||
NY Jets | Washington | 1.5 | 38.5 | 18.5 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 6.5 | 41 | 17.25 | |||
Arizona | San Francisco | 10.5 | 45 | 17.25 | |||
Chicago | LA Rams | 6 | 39.5 | 16.75 | |||
Denver | Minnesota | 10 | 40 | 15 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Drew Brees (Saints), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Josh Jacobs (Raiders), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints), Damien Williams (Chiefs), Tevin Coleman (49ers)
- Receivers: Tyrell Williams/Hunter Renfrow/Darren Waller (Raiders), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Vikings
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Kyle Allen (Panthers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Dalvin Cook (Vikings)
- Receivers: Deebo Samuel/Emmanuel Sanders/Kendrick Bourne/Ross Dwelley (49ers), Curtis Samuel/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Marquise Brown/Nick Boyle/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: Rams, 49ers, Bills
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Tom Brady (Patriots), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Julian Edelman/Phillip Dorsett/Mohamed Sanu/Ben Watson (Patriots), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers)
- Defense: Ravens, Browns, Saints