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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED THURSDAY 10/31 @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Seattle | Tampa Bay | -6 | 51.5 | 28.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Dallas | NY Giants | -7.5 | 47.5 | 27.5 | «« | «« | |
San Francisco | Arizona | -10.5 | 43 | 26.75 | «« | ««« | «« |
Oakland | Detroit | -2 | 49.5 | 25.75 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | LA Chargers | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Minnesota | Kansas City | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | « | « | |
New England | Baltimore | -3 | 45 | 24 | « | « | |
Houston | Jacksonville | -1.5 | 46 | 23.75 | |||
Detroit | Oakland | 2 | 49.5 | 23.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Chicago | -4.5 | 42 | 23.25 | « | ||
Buffalo | Washington | -9.5 | 37 | 23.25 | « | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Seattle | 6 | 51.5 | 22.75 | |||
Carolina | Tennessee | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | « | ||
Jacksonville | Houston | 1.5 | 46 | 22.25 | |||
NY Jets | Miami | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | « | ||
Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | -1 | 43 | 22 | |||
LA Chargers | Green Bay | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
Kansas City | Minnesota | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
Cleveland | Denver | -3.5 | 39 | 21.25 | « | ||
Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | 1 | 43 | 21 | |||
Baltimore | New England | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 7.5 | 47.5 | 20 | |||
Miami | NY Jets | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||
Tennessee | Carolina | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
Chicago | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 42 | 18.75 | |||
Denver | Cleveland | 3.5 | 39 | 17.75 | |||
Arizona | San Francisco | 10.5 | 43 | 16.25 | |||
Washington | Buffalo | 9.5 | 37 | 13.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Tevin Coleman/Matt Breida (49ers)
- Receivers: Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/David Moore (Seahawks)
- Defense: Bills
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Derek Carr (Raiders)
- Running Back: Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Emmanuel Sanders/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle (49ers), Tyrell Williams/Hunter Renfrow/Zay Jones/Darren Waller (Raiders)
- Defense: 49ers, Browns
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (Packers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Marques Valdez-Scantling/Geronimo Allison/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen (Vikings), Julian Edelman/Phillip Dorsett/Mohamed Sanu (Patriots)
- Defense: Eagles, Panthers, Jets