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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
LA Rams | Atlanta | -3 | 55.5 | 29.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Buffalo | Miami | -17 | 40.5 | 28.75 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
NY Giants | Arizona | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
New England | NY Jets | -9.5 | 43 | 26.25 | «« | ««« | «« |
Green Bay | Oakland | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | «« | «« | |
Atlanta | LA Rams | 3 | 55.5 | 26.25 | «« | «« | |
Dallas | Philadelphia | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | «« | «« | |
Seattle | Baltimore | -3 | 49 | 26 | «« | «« | |
Kansas City | Denver | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | « | « | |
San Francisco | Washington | -9 | 41 | 25 | « | «« | «« |
Jacksonville | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | « | « | |
Indianapolis | Houston | -1 | 47 | 24 | « | « | |
Arizona | NY Giants | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
Minnesota | Detroit | -2 | 45.5 | 23.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Dallas | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 1 | 47 | 23 | |||
Baltimore | Seattle | 3 | 49 | 23 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | 2 | 45.5 | 21.75 | |||
Oakland | Green Bay | 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | |||
Tennessee | LA Chargers | -2 | 39.5 | 20.75 | « | ||
Chicago | New Orleans | -3 | 38.5 | 20.75 | «« | ||
Cincinnati | Jacksonville | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
LA Chargers | Tennessee | 2 | 39.5 | 18.75 | |||
New Orleans | Chicago | 3 | 38.5 | 17.75 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 9.5 | 43 | 16.75 | |||
Washington | San Francisco | 9 | 41 | 16 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 17 | 40.5 | 11.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Josh Allen (Bills)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Frank Gore/Devin Singletary (Bills), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams), John Brown/Duke Williams/Cole Beasley (Bills)
- Defense: Bills
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Daniel Jones (Giants), Tom Brady (Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Saquon Barkley (Giants, Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (Packers), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Matt Breida/Tevin Coleman (49ers)
- Receivers: Darius Slayton/Golden Tate/Evan Engram (Giants), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Jakobi Meyers(Patriots), Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Allen Lazard/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Luke Willson (Seahawks)
- Defense: 49ers, Patriots
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Gardner Minshew (Jaguars), Jacoby Brissett (Colts)
- Running Back: LeSean McCoy/Damien Williams (Chiefs), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars), Marlon Mack (Colts)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Marquise Goodwin/Deebo Samuel/Dante Pettis/George Kittle (49ers), Dede Westbrook/D.J. Chark (Jaguars), T.Y. Hilton/Zach Pascal/Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron (Colts)
- Defense: Bears, Titans