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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SATURDAY 10/5 @ 7 PM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Indianapolis | -11 | 56 | 33.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Philadelphia | NY Jets | -14 | 43.5 | 28.75 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
New England | Washington | -15 | 41.5 | 28.25 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Houston | Atlanta | -4 | 50 | 27 | «« | «« | |
San Francisco | Cleveland | -4 | 47 | 25.5 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Denver | -6 | 44.5 | 25.25 | « | « | « |
Seattle | LA Rams | -1.5 | 49 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Cincinatti | Arizona | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Dallas | Green Bay | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | « | « | |
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Minnesota | NY Giants | -5 | 43.5 | 24.25 | « | « | « |
LA Rams | Seattle | 1.5 | 49 | 23.75 | |||
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Atlanta | Houston | 4 | 50 | 23 | |||
Indianapolis | Kansas City | 10.5 | 56 | 22.75 | |||
Chicago | Oakland | -5 | 40.5 | 22.75 | «« | ||
Arizona | Cincinatti | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Green Bay | Dallas | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
Carolina | Jacksonville | -3 | 40 | 21.5 | « | ||
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
Cleveland | San Francisco | 4 | 47 | 21.5 | |||
Tennessee | Buffalo | -3 | 39.5 | 21.25 | « | ||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
NY Giants | Minnesota | 5 | 43.5 | 19.25 | |||
Denver | LA Chargers | 6 | 44.5 | 19.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Carolina | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||
Buffalo | Tennessee | 3 | 39.5 | 18.25 | |||
Oakland | Chicago | 5 | 40.5 | 17.75 | |||
NY Jets | Philadelphia | 14 | 43.5 | 14.75 | |||
Washington | New England | 15 | 41.5 | 13.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy (Chiefs), Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders (Eagles), Sony Michel (Patriots)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Phillip Dorsett (Patriots)
- Defense: Patriots, Eagles
2-STARS
- Quarterback: DeShaun Waston (Texans)
- Running Back: Carlos Hyde/Duke Johnson Jr (Texans)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Kenny Stills (Texans)
- Defense: Bears
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Teddy Bridgewater (Saints), Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
- Running Back: Matt Breida/Raheem Mostert/Jeff Wilson (49ers), Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys),
- Alvin Kamara (Saints), Dalvin Cook (Vikings)
- Receivers: Marquise Goodwin/Deebo Samuel/Dante Pettis/George Kittle (49ers), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Travis Benjamin (Chargers), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Will Dissly (Seahawks), Tyler Boyd/Auden Tate/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs (Vikings)
- Defense: Titans, Panthers, Chargers, Vikings