Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Dallas | Miami | -21 | 47.5 | 34.25 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
New England | NY Jets | -18.5 | 46.5 | 32.5 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Kansas City | Baltimore | -6.5 | 55.5 | 31 | ««« | ««« | |
Philadelphia | Detroit | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | «« | «« | |
Tampa Bay | NY Giants | -6.5 | 48 | 27.25 | «« | «« | |
LA Rams | Cleveland | -3 | 51 | 27 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | Denver | -8 | 43.5 | 25.75 | « | « | «« |
San Francisco | Pittsburgh | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | « | « | « |
Minnesota | Oakland | -8.5 | 42.5 | 25.5 | « | « | «« |
LA Chargers | Houston | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Indianapolis | Atlanta | -2.5 | 47.5 | 25 | « | « | |
Seattle | New Orleans | -4.5 | 45.5 | 25 | « | « | |
Buffalo | Cincinatti | -6 | 43.5 | 24.75 | « | « | « |
Baltimore | Kansas City | 6.5 | 55.5 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Carolina | Arizona | -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Cleveland | LA Rams | 3 | 51 | 24 | « | « | |
Chicago | Washington | -4 | 42 | 23 | « | ||
Atlanta | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 47.5 | 22.5 | |||
Houston | LA Chargers | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
Arizona | Carolina | 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | |||
NY Giants | Tampa Bay | 6.5 | 48 | 20.75 | |||
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -1 | 40 | 20.5 | « | ||
Detroit | Philadelphia | 7 | 48 | 20.5 | |||
New Orleans | Seattle | 4.5 | 45.5 | 20.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 1 | 40 | 19.5 | |||
Washington | Chicago | 4 | 42 | 19 | |||
Cincinatti | Buffalo | 6 | 43.5 | 18.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | San Francisco | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | |||
Denver | Green Bay | 8 | 43.5 | 17.75 | |||
Oakland | Minnesota | 8.5 | 42.5 | 17 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 18.5 | 46.5 | 14 | |||
Miami | Dallas | 21 | 47.5 | 13.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Tom Brady (Patriots), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Devin Smith/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Julian Edelman/Antonio Brown/Josh Gordon (Patriots), Sammy Watkins/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Cowboys, Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders (Eagles), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Todd Gurley/Malcolm Brown (Rams)
- Receivers: Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/DeSean Jackson/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams)
- Defense: Vikings, Packers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Jacoby Brissett (Colts), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Josh Allen (Bills), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Cam Newton (Panthers), Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Matt Breida/Raheem Mostert/James Wilson (49ers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Marlon Mack (Colts), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Frank Gore/Devin Singletary (Bills), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Nick Chubb (Browns)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Packers), Deebo Samuel/Marquise Goodwin/George Kittle (49ers), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Travis Benjamin (Chargers), T.Y. Hilton/Deon Cain/Eric Ebron/Jack Doyle (Colts), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Will Dissly (Seahawks), John Brown/Zay Jones/Cole Beasley (Bills), Marquise Brown/Miles Boykin/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Curtis Samuel/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/David Njoku (Browns),
- Defense: 49ers, Bills, Bears, Titans