Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
New England | Miami | -18.5 | 48 | 33.25 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Baltimore | Arizona | -13 | 47 | 30 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Kansas City | Oakland | -7.5 | 52 | 29.75 | ««« | ««« | |
LA Rams | New Orleans | -3 | 54 | 28.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Carolina | Tampa Bay | -6.5 | 50 | 28.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Houston | Jacksonville | -9 | 44.5 | 26.75 | «« | «« | «« |
Philadelphia | Atlanta | -1.5 | 51 | 26.25 | «« | «« | |
New Orleans | LA Rams | 3 | 54 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Dallas | Washington | -4.5 | 46 | 25.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | Detroit | -2.5 | 48 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Pittsburgh | Seattle | -4 | 46.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Atlanta | Philadelphia | 1.5 | 51 | 24.75 | « | « | |
Cleveland | NY Jets | -2.5 | 46 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Green Bay | Minnesota | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Cincinnati | San Francisco | -1 | 45 | 23 | |||
Detroit | LA Chargers | 2.5 | 48 | 22.75 | |||
Buffalo | NY Giants | -1.5 | 43.5 | 22.5 | |||
Oakland | Kansas City | 7.5 | 52 | 22.25 | |||
San Francisco | Cincinnati | 1 | 45 | 22 | |||
Tampa Bay | Carolina | 6.5 | 50 | 21.75 | |||
NY Jets | Cleveland | 2.5 | 46 | 21.75 | |||
Seattle | Pittsburgh | 4 | 46.5 | 21.25 | |||
Chicago | Denver | -1.5 | 40.5 | 21 | « | ||
NY Giants | Buffalo | 1.5 | 43.5 | 21 | |||
Minnesota | Green Bay | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Washington | Dallas | 4.5 | 46 | 20.75 | |||
Indianapolis | Tennessee | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
Denver | Chicago | 1.5 | 40.5 | 19.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Houston | 9 | 44.5 | 17.75 | |||
Arizona | Baltimore | 13 | 47 | 17 | |||
Miami | New England | 18.5 | 48 | 14.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy (Chiefs), Todd Gurley/Malcolm Brown (Rams), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Antonio Brown/Josh Gordon (Patriots), Miles Boykin/Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Sammy Coates/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (Rams), D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Texans), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Carlos Hyde/Duke Johnson Jr (Texans), Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders (Eagles)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Keke Coutee (Texans), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/DeSean Jackson/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Ravens, Texans
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), James Conner (Steelers), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Nick Chubb (Browns)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Jared Cook (Saints), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Randall Cobb/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers), JuJu Smith-Schuster/Donte Moncrief/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/David Njoku (Browns),
- Defense: Bears