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WHEN THE BRITISH naturalist George Shaw received a weird specimen from Australia in 1799 - one with a mole's fur, a duck's bill and spurs on its rear legs - he did what any skeptical scientist would do: He looked for the stitching and glue that would reveal it to be a hoax. "It was impossible not to entertain some distant doubts as to the genuine nature of the animal," Shaw wrote of the seemingly built-by-committee creature, which he eventually named "platypus".
Over the past several seasons, there have been quite a few very popular articles that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based on the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good starting duo, a committee can be built as a standard fantasy league strategy. In general, this is usually a wise move for some positions where depth is not as big of a concern (usually quarterbacks and defenses) because there is rarely a need to pursue an elite option at these positions early in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.
So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Wide receiver? A possibility, but it might be better to look at third WR options than any other option. What about running back? Hmmm, that might work. What if I could put together all of this and make a total team using committees? Would that even be possible?
Yes, Virginia, there is a Team Platypus.
With all of these concepts discussed here:
- QBBC - Quarterback By Committee
- RB2BC (PPR) - Running Back #2 By Committee (PPR)
- WR3BC (PPR) - Wide Receiver #3 By Committee (PPR)
- TEBC (PPR) - Tight End By Committee (PPR)
- DTBC - Defensive Team By Committee
I've taken a good shot at putting together an Ultimate Team By Committee (UTBC). I hope you don't mind that I will pass on the kicker by committee. Leave that one for some else to think about.
Let's address what we need here in Rounds 5-14. We want to get RB2BC, WR3BC, TEBC, and QBBC established. Looking back at the articles highlighted above we can now modify our earlier RB2BC and WR3BC recommendations if necessary in order to secure all the committee duos we want to roster.
IF IT WALKS LIKE A DUCK.....
Round
|
Pick Range
|
ADP
|
Selection
|
Auction Cost
|
1
|
1 to 12
|
RB1 (w/early 1st rounder) or WR1 (w/late 1st rounder)
|
||
2
|
13 to 24
|
WR1 (w/early 1st rounder) or WR2/RB1 (w/late 1st rounder)
|
||
3
|
25 to 36
|
RB/WR
|
||
4
|
37 to 48
|
RB/WR
|
||
5
|
49 to 60
|
48-53
|
RB2BC #1 - Chris Carson
|
21
|
6
|
61 to 72
|
68 / 60
|
20
|
|
7
|
73 to 84
|
90
|
WR3BC #1 - Larry Fitzgerald (alternate = RB Latavius Murray)
|
13 or 9
|
8
|
85 to 96
|
96
|
WR3BC #2 - Dede Westbrook
|
8
|
9
|
97 to 108
|
102 / 107
|
QBBC #1 - Ben Roethlisberger / Jameis Winston
|
4 or 3
|
10
|
109 to 120
|
115
|
TEBC #1 - Delanie Walker
|
3
|
11
|
121 to 132
|
128
|
QBBC #2 - Lamar Jackson
|
2
|
12
|
133 to 144
|
179
|
TEBC #2 - Jack Doyle
|
2
|
13
|
145 to 156
|
166
|
Best Player available - Suggested WR4 Mohamed Sanu
|
2
|
14
|
157 to 168
|
Best Player available
|
||
15
|
169 to 180
|
Best Player available
|
||
16
|
181 to 192
|
188 / 202
|
DTBC #1 - Dallas Cowboys / Pittsburgh Steelers
|
1
|
17
|
193 to 204
|
205
|
DTBC #2 -Philadelphia Eagles
|
1
|
18
|
205 to 216
|
Best Player available
|
||
19
|
217 to 228
|
Kicker
|
1
|
|
20
|
229 to 240
|
Best Player available
|
||
Total Auction Cost of Committee Players:
|
75 to 70
|
Table 1: The Ultimate Team By Committee (UTBC) Blueprint for PPR Leagues (Best Case)
The five committees all fit in the recipe this year - given that one running back, Chris Carson, still makes it to you in your draft in Round 5. That is the keystone to the plan above, and if that does not happen - well - that is where "Plan B" comes in for the Team Platypus Plan. We will get to that in a minute. First, let us break down the team, position by position, including the comments.
- Running Back - (RB2BC): This one hinges on Chris Carson falling into Round 5. Recent PPR ADP has Carson up one spot to RB24, which does not sound like much - but it is enough for some fantasy owners to start looking at him as a late Round 4 pick. That means two options are presented for your Round 4 decision - secure Carson a little early and lock down your "Committee Team" a little sooner, or take the best player available and hope that Carson falls to Round 5. Your plan will also be somewhat dependent on where your Round 5 falls, as Carson is highly unlikely to make it to the end of the round (Pick 60) but could easily be there in the first 3-5 selections of the round. If you are lucky enough to have a Top 4 pick in Round 1, then Carson should be square in your sights - and the difference in taking (most likely) your second or third wide receiver in Round 4 and Carson (hopefully) in Round 5 versus flipping that plan (Carson late in Round 4, WR2/WR3 in Round 5) is minimal. A team picking in the Top 4 overall would secure a stud RB in Round 1 and then probably take two wide receivers in Rounds 2 and 3 (or possibly one WR and a Top 3 tight end) and then take Carson in Round 4, followed by a wide receiver for a very strong start. Taking Lamar Miller in Round 6 should still be very doable,
- Wide Receiver - (WR3BC): For WR3BC the top original plan is still the goal, which is to get Larry Fitzgerald in Round 7 and then Dede Westbrook in Round 8. The alternative is to take Larry Fitzgerald a round early (Round 6) and come right back to get Latavius Murray in Round 7 before securing the second half of your WR3BC with Westbrook in Round 8.
- Tight End - (TEBC): The tight end situation is a bit straightforward - Delanie Walker is a solid pick in Round 10, and then securing Jack Doyle a little early in Round 12 locks in strong value as the top TEBC pair for 2019. Locking up Doyle before he disappears after Round 12 is paramount here, so despite Doyle's lower ADP (179, pointing towards Round 15), Doyle is well worth the Round 12 pick. ADP values typically go out the window in the back half of drafts, and savvy drafters are targeting Doyle - so take him early and rest easy.
- Quarterback - (QBBC): Quarterbacks are relatively deep through 20 or so options, and there are some great pairs beyond the Top 10. Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston are strong options to lead off your QBBC, and securing Lamar Jackson - who has QB1 potential himself this season, if rumors about a breakout season with a new Ravens' offense prove to be right - is a great pick in Round 11. Jackson has high variance, making him a risky pick by himself - but pairing him with a strong option like Roethlisberger (or really any Top 12 quarterback that falls to Round 9) makes taking the gamble on Jackson far more acceptable.
- Team Defense - (DTBC): The team defense duo is still Dallas and Philadelphia, but Pittsburgh is listed as a reasonable alternative. Make no mistake here - Dallas is the preferred choice and should be secured as early as Round 15 if Cowboy fans are in your draft - as the Eagles and Dallas have nine favorable matchups in the first 15 weeks of the season thanks to weak NFC East and AFC East teams on both of their schedules.
Now - a few bonuses for 2019. First, "Plan B" (also known as "what if Chris Carson goes off the board too early". This is where Table 2 comes into play:
Round
|
Pick Range
|
ADP
|
Selection
|
Auction Cost
|
1
|
1 to 12
|
RB1 (w/early 1st rounder) or WR1 (w/late 1st rounder)
|
||
2
|
13 to 24
|
WR1 (w/early 1st rounder) or WR2/RB1 (w/late 1st rounder)
|
||
3
|
25 to 36
|
RB/WR
|
||
4
|
37 to 48
|
RB/WR
|
||
5
|
49 to 60
|
RB/WR
|
||
6
|
61 to 72
|
68
|
RB2BC #1 - Lamar Miller
|
20
|
7
|
73 to 84
|
90 / 96
|
WR3BC #1 - Larry Fitzgerald / Dede Westbrook
|
13 or 8
|
8
|
85 to 96
|
95
|
RB2BC #2 - Latavius Murray
|
9
|
9
|
97 to 108
|
102 / 107
|
QBBC #1 - Ben Roethlisberger / Jameis Winston
|
4 or 3
|
10
|
109 to 120
|
128
|
QBBC #2 - Lamar Jackson
|
3
|
11
|
121 to 132
|
126
|
WR3BC #2 - Donte Moncrief
|
3
|
12
|
133 to 144
|
139
|
TEBC #1 - Kyle Rudolph
|
2
|
13
|
145 to 156
|
179
|
TEBC #2 - Jack Doyle
|
2
|
14
|
157 to 168
|
166
|
Best Player available - Suggested WR4 Mohamed Sanu
|
3
|
15
|
169 to 180
|
Best Player available
|
||
16
|
181 to 192
|
188 / 202
|
DTBC #1 - Dallas Cowboys / Pittsburgh Steelers
|
1
|
17
|
193 to 204
|
205
|
DTBC #2 -Philadelphia Eagles
|
1
|
18
|
205 to 216
|
Best Player available
|
||
19
|
217 to 228
|
Kicker
|
1
|
|
20
|
229 to 240
|
Best Player available
|
||
Total Auction Cost of Committee Players:
|
62 to 56
|
Table 2- Plan B for the Ultimate Team by Committee (PPR)
The changes to "Plan A" are as follows:
- Running Back - (RB2BC): So Chris Carson did not make it to your pick in Round 5. Time to pivot - but where? Take Lamar Miller here (ADP of 68) and then secure Latavius Murray in Round 7. This secures the 8th-best recommended RB2BC, but it is still a good result. Both backs have secure roles in higher-octane offenses in both New Orleans and Houston. While Duke Johnson Jr will impact Lamar Miller's value (and his resultant ADP will decline), but Miller was never much of a receiver anyway. Both Miller and Latavius Murray will be the favorite in goal-line situations for both of their squads and also be the preferred option in the fourth quarter to run out the clock - and both scenarios raise the floor for this pair. Murray and Miller is not a sexy combination, but it is a solid duo to rely on as an RB2 or flex combination - and their cheaper ADPs affords taking Larry Fitzgerald (or Dede Westbrook) in Round 7 rather than Round 8.
- Wide Receiver - (WR3BC): For WR3BC, Larry Fitzgerald is still the top target, and moving him up one round (from Round 8 to Round 7) increases the chances of securing his services for your squad. Worst case scenario is that Fitzgerald goes, but Dede Westbrook is there for your Round 7 pick. With so many good pairs available with either receiver, taking either one locks in that higher-end value and affords options for the second half of the WR3BC duo. Taking a solid wideout in Round 11 elevates the WR3BC value, along with securing Mohamed Sanu in Round 14.
- Tight End - (TEBC): Something has to give when the "Ultimate Team by Committee" starts in Round 6 instead of Round 5. Delanie Walker is unlikely to make it to Round 11, and if he does, the temptation will be to take him - but that is a mistake. Taking a WR4 in Round 11 boosts the WR3BC value (along with Sanu later). The next-best plan for TEBC is to take Kyle Rudolph in Round 12 and Jack Doyle in Round 13, which results in the third-best pair for the committee approach at tight end at a relative bargain.
- Quarterback - (QBBC): Almost nothing changes at quarterback in Plan B, except Lamar Jackson should be taken in Round 10 instead of Round 11. That opens up the Round 11 pick for a solid WR3BC option to go with Fitzgerald or Westbrook and also locks up Jackson before anyone else can pilfer him from your team.
The second bonus added to both Table 1 and Table 2 are the general prices for these players in the committees for an auction. Grabbing these committees is often easier in that format, and will only cost about 30-35% of a $200 budget. That leaves 50-60% for your Top 3-4 players and then a few bucks left to round out the roster.
The good news is that we have numerous options this year to form the Ultimate Team By Committee (UTBC). Like in several past years, there has to be some tweaking to get all the committees into the roster, but with some flexibility (and the supporting articles), all five committees are ripe for the picking with barely any changes to the five plans needed at all. That means 10 of 20 picks are already done for you, so you can focus on the first four rounds and then value picks in Rounds 13-17.
No plan is infallible, so that is why we have so many alternate backup scenarios planned out before the draft. Eliminate surprises and plan for contingencies. That's what we do - we adapt. Darwin would be proud.
Best of luck this year.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.