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Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Dallas Cowboys | 32 | 13 | -19 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Denver Broncos | 24 | 8 | -16 | Detroit Lions |
San Francisco 49ers | 20 | 7 | -13 | Los Angeles Rams |
Washington Redskins | 30 | 19 | -11 | New York Giants |
Tennessee Titans | 22 | 15 | -7 | New Orleans Saints |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP
Commentary
- Over the past five weeks, Dallas has allowed 22.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, sixth-most in the NFL.
- In that span, Dallas is allowing 31 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, fourth-most, and 0.6 rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, tied for the most.
- Over the past five weeks, Carson Wentz has rushed for 62 yards, 17th-most among quarterbacks.
- Over the past five weeks, Tennessee has allowed 16.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, 19th-most.
- In that stretch, Tennessee has faced Nick Foles, Jacoby Brissett, Derek Carr, and Deshaun Watson.
Action Items
Based on this exercise, Wentz would appear to be a sneaky play, but much of the production Dallas has yielded to quarterbacks has been on the ground. Drew Brees is an interesting potential GPP play. The floor is low due to this being his first "potentially uncomfortable" weather game this season.
Since Brees returned from injury, New Orleans has played two road games. One was at Tampa Bay, and the other was in the dome in Atlanta. But there are multiple quarterbacks priced lower in DFS who have a lower ceiling and a lesser matchup.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Cleveland Browns | 30 | 18 | -12 | Baltimore Ravens |
New Orleans Saints | 15 | 6 | -9 | Tennessee Titans |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 3 | -7 | Houston Texans |
Tennessee Titans | 25 | 20 | -5 | New Orleans Saints |
Houston Texans | 29 | 24 | -5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Commentary
- Over the past five weeks, Cleveland has allowed 25.9 fantasy points to opposing running backs, 11th-most in the NFL.
- In the past two weeks, Cleveland has allowed 161 and 143 rushing yards to running backs. They also yielded 71 receiving yards in Week 14 vs. Cincinnati.
- Baltimore gains 49.3% of its total yardage via the rush, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Baltimore scores 24.2% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the 13th-highest ratio.
- Cleveland allows 38.2% of its total yardage via the rush, the third-highest ratio.
- Cleveland allows 27.4% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio.
- Cleveland allows 4.9 yards per rush, fifth-most.
- Tennessee gains 37.0% of its total yardage via the rush, the sixth-highest ratio.
- New Orleans allows 27.6% of its yardage via the rush, the fourth-lowest ratio.
Action Items
Mark Ingram's usage in the passing game makes him a difficult play to select in PPR formats, but in a game Baltimore should handle, Ingram should be in consideration. Not captured in the stats (unless deemed the reason their rush defense has folded recently) is the potential that Cleveland has given up on the season.
Also of note is that Baltimore doesn't score many rushing touchdowns relative to how they gain yards. Cleveland's defense, however, allows a top-10 ratio of yardage via the rush and scoring via rushing touchdowns. Ingram is a solid GPP play with multi-touchdown upside.
Derrick Henry is another player with high upside each week despite a limited role in the passing game. New Orleans doesn't allow a high percentage of yardage via the run, but that's what makes Henry a viable GPP play. New Orleans is favored to win, but a scenario where Tennessee keeps things close and/or controls the game isn't far-fetched.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Denver Broncos | 26 | 7 | -19 | Detroit Lions |
Dallas Cowboys | 24 | 8 | -16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Tennessee Titans | 29 | 16 | -13 | New Orleans Saints |
Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 2 | -13 | Chicago Bears |
Chicago Bears | 17 | 8 | -9 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Commentary
- Dallas has yielded the following performances to receivers recently: Julian Edelman (8-93-0), Cole Beasley (6-110-1), Anthony Miller (3-42-1), Cooper Kupp (6-41-1). All of these players are high on the wide receiver pecking order for their teams but also contend with players at other positions for target share.
- Over the past five weeks, Kansas City has allowed 22.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second-fewest in the NFL.
- In that stretch, Kansas City has faced Denver in the snow with a rookie quarterback, a struggling New England team, and Oakland's poor offense. Even with New England's struggles, Edelman had 95 yards and a touchdown.
- On the season, Kansas City is allowing 26.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second-fewest.
- Kansas City's season includes the stretch mentioned above, plus a game vs. Minnesota without Adam Thielen, a game vs. Green Bay without Davante Adams, and another game against the lowly Denver and Oakland offenses.
Action Items
Don't be afraid to utilize Philadelphia players. Dallas' defense is slipping, especially without Leighton Vander Esch, who is expected to be out again. There is more in the next section on which Philadelphia backup wide receiver is more appealing.
Kansas City is a prime example of how stats without context can be misleading. They've faced a relatively easy wide receiver schedule, which boosts their ranking against wide receivers. But Anthony Miller is on fire of late. Don't be afraid to use a hot player against a defense whose "toughness" can be minimized.
Since returning to the lineup full-time back in Week 11, Anthony Miller is fantasy's WR8 (88.1 PPR points) and he's 6th in the NFL in receptions per game (6.6) in this span.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 16, 2019
Gets Chiefs secondary next that has allowed 6th-most receptions allowed to slot wideouts this year.
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 5 | -20 | Dallas Cowboys |
San Francisco 49ers | 21 | 4 | -17 | Los Angeles Rams |
Cleveland Browns | 27 | 12 | -15 | Baltimore Ravens |
Buffalo Bills | 16 | 3 | -13 | New England Patriots |
New England Patriots | 23 | 10 | -13 | Buffalo Bills |
Commentary and Action Items
Tight end stats are noisy, so we're bunching commentary and actions together. For this position, offense seems more predictive than defense. And two of the offenses above have been utilizing tight ends frequently in recent weeks.
Tyler Higbee is averaging 21.8 fantasy points in three games since Gerald Everett has been on the shelf. Higbee has finished as the TE1, TE6, and TE3 in that stretch. Higbee is a locked-in TE1 for season-long championship week and the best combination of upside and value at tight end if playing the "Saturday only" DFS slate.
In Baltimore, Lamar Jackson has been lifting DFS lineups above cash lines all season long. And the "who is Jackson's best stack partner" question is often split between Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. This week, Andrews should be the preferred selection. Cleveland's DvP stats look good, but their schedule has been full of teams that don't utilize the tight end position.
Cleveland has faced the following TE1s this season:
- Mark Andrews (4-31-1)
- George Kittle (6-70-1)
Notably, they also allowed 3-115-1 to Noah Fant before his emergence that came with the quarterback transition to Drew Lock. Andrews has overall TE1 upside this week if Cleveland keeps the game close and encourages Baltimore to pass more than game script implies.
Now #Trending
Injuries and depth chart changes are a part of life in the NFL. But how teams handle them can lead sharp fantasy players to better decisions than their opponents. Let's look at some situations that have changed in the past few weeks.
Detroit's Quarterback Change
Once Matthew Stafford's injury became too much to bear and Jeff Driskel landed on Injured Reserve, Detroit moved to David Blough. Beginning on Thanksgiving Day, here are how Detroit's wide receivers have fared with Blough. Note: Marvin Jones was also placed on I.R. prior to the team's Week 15 game, thus introducing another shift in workload.
Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Total | |||||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | ||||
Kenny Golladay | 96.1% | 13.9% | 56.4% | 94.4% | 21.1% | 28.3% | 93.8% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 94.8% | 17.1% | 34.9% | ||||
Marvin Jones | 96.1% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 100.0% | 18.4% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 68.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | ||||
Danny Amendola | 75.0% | 22.2% | 11.4% | 80.3% | 21.1% | 17.1% | 85.9% | 30.2% | 39.2% | 80.1% | 24.8% | 22.7% | ||||
Team Total | 76 | 36 | 280 | 71 | 38 | 205 | 64 | 43 | 260 | 211 | 117 | 745 |
"Snap %" = Percentage of team snaps played by that player
"Tgt %" = Percentage of team targets thrown to that player
"Yds %" = Percentage of team snaps passing yards gained by that player
Commentary and Action Items
Danny Amendola's snap share didn't increase with Marvin Jones out, but his target share did. Amendola offered a safety blanket to his young quarterback that is likely repeatable. At his still-moderate pricing Amendola is viable in DFS cash games. He's also a safe WR2/3 in PPR leagues for season-long formats.
Philadelphia's Wide Receiver Woes
Alshon Jeffery missed Week 11 and Week 12, returned in Week 13, but then left early in Week 14 and has landed on Injured Reserve. Nelson Agholor has been dealing with a chronic knee injury and has also missed Weeks 12, 14, and 15. While some of the vacated workload is going to Philadelphia's tight ends and running backs, a couple of young backup receivers have seen increased playing time.
Week 12 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Total | |||||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | ||||
Greg Ward | 48.7% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 86.5% | 18.0% | 10.5% | 75.3% | 22.5% | 22.9% | 71.1% | 18.5% | 15.9% | ||||
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 71.1% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 89.9% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 92.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 84.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | ||||
Team Total | 76 | 45 | 256 | 89 | 50 | 325 | 77 | 40 | 266 | 242 | 135 | 847 |
Commentary and Action Items
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is playing nearly every snap in the absences of Jeffrey and Agholor, but he's doing next to nothing with the increased time on the field. Greg Ward, on the other hand, is being targeted at an increasing rate with each game. After his 7 receptions, 61 yards, and game-winning touchdown catch in Week 15, he won't be as under-the-radar as he was before. But he's still moderately-priced in DFS for a player seeing at least three-quarters of his team's snaps and 18% or more of his team's targets. Ward is in play for cash games this week.
Cincinnati's Ground Commitment
Lately, Cincinnati has maintained a focus on the ground game despite being in mostly negative game scripts. Joe Mixon has benefited tremendously - even with a difficult schedule.
Joe Mixon has 745 total yards in his last six games (since the team's W9 bye), and that included bad matchups against BAL, PIT, NYJ and NE. He's the RB4 in that span.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) December 16, 2019
Mixon's yardage hasn't been the only stat to jump off the page. Below are Mixon's totals and rankings since Week 9:
- Carries per game: 21.7 (1st)
- Rushing yards per game: 100.8 (2nd only to Derrick Henry)
- PPR points per game: 17.6 (6th)
Commentary and Action Items
It's hard to invest in an offense as bad as Cincinnati's, but it's hard to fade a team playing against a defense as bad as Miami's. Combine that with Mixon's volume, and he's worthy of consideration this week. On DraftKings, he's priced up due to the matchup, which makes Mixon a GPP play rather than a safe, moderately-priced option. In season-long leagues, Mixon is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside if he can get into the end zone.
Under Pressure
Determining how much time the quarterback will have to make decisions can be a key factor when assessing offensive prospects each week. We've sorted the table below by the defensive teams who produce the least pressure. Ideally, the offenses opposing these teams also allow a low pressure rate.
Offensive Team | Dropbk/Gm | Pressure % | Defensive Team | Dropbk/Gm | Pressure % |
Cincinnati Bengals | 39.0 | 21.4% | Miami Dolphins | 34.7 | 17.5% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 41.9 | 25.6% | Houston Texans | 40.8 | 18.2% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 40.1 | 22.6% | Atlanta Falcons | 37.4 | 19.5% |
Arizona Cardinals | 36.4 | 23.0% | Seattle Seahawks | 42.5 | 19.5% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 36.9 | 21.2% | Oakland Raiders | 36.8 | 19.8% |
"Dropbk/Gm" = a team's pass attempts plus times sacked divided by games played
"Pressure %" = QB Hurries + QB Hits + QB Sacks divided by dropbacks
Commentary and Action Items
The "matches" here aren't best-vs.-worst, but there is promise for the Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and L.A. Chargers offenses. If breaking ties involving Tampa Bay and Arizona, note that they face bottom-five pressure rate teams as well.
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Dallas Cowboys | 32 | 13 | -19 | Philadelphia Eagles |
Houston Texans | 31 | 31 | 0 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Washington Redskins | 30 | 19 | -11 | New York Giants |
Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 32 | 3 | Seattle Seahawks |
New York Giants | 28 | 26 | -2 | Washington Redskins |
Commentary and Action Items
We discussed Wentz earlier. When adjusting for strength of schedule, Dallas is weak. But much of that production has been on the ground. Wentz is athletic, but it's hard to bank on rushing production from a player averaging 12.4 rushing yards per game.
Jameis Winston now leads the NFL in passing yards. Now faces a Houston team that is bad against quarterbacks on both a raw and adjusted basis. There are cheaper options on the three-game "Saturday only" slate, but if you're not playing Winston, you're doing it wrong. The DraftKings 300-yard bonus seems like a foregone conclusion, even with missing weapons on offense.
For main slate purposes, consider Russell Wilson. His price is inflated due to the matchup, but his production could be as well. Wilson offers excellent in-game GPP leverage over Chris Carson, who is likely to appear on a significant amount of lineups.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 | 31 | -1 | Atlanta Falcons |
Carolina Panthers | 31 | 32 | 1 | Indianapolis Colts |
Cleveland Browns | 30 | 18 | -12 | Baltimore Ravens |
Houston Texans | 29 | 24 | -5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Miami Dolphins | 28 | 26 | -2 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Commentary and Action Items
Any of the running backs on these teams deserve GPP consideration. But Mixon offers the best combination of volume-based floor and matchup-based ceiling.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Miami Dolphins | 32 | 30 | -2 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Detroit Lions | 31 | 31 | 0 | Denver Broncos |
Minnesota Vikings | 30 | 25 | -5 | Green Bay Packers |
Tennessee Titans | 29 | 16 | -13 | New Orleans Saints |
Indianapolis Colts | 28 | 22 | -6 | Carolina Panthers |
Commentary and Action Items
If Mixon doesn't fit in the lineup but a Cincinnati player is still desired, consider Tyler Boyd. Miami has yielded a 100-yard receiver in five straight games. All of those players have caught at least seven passes, and four of the five caught nine or more. For upside purposes, consider that Miami has allowed at least two touchdowns to wide receivers in five straight games as well.
Detroit has been terrible against the pass lately, highlighted by last week's debacle against Tampa Bay. Over the past five weeks, the Lions have allowed eight different receivers to catch five or more passes in a game. Five of those players have eclipsed 100 yards as well.
Courtland Sutton is dominating the market share in Denver, and the Broncos should welcome a game at home in seasonably mild weather after a snow storm in Kansas City last week. Sutton is in play in all DFS formats and is a low-end WR1 in season-long championships.
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Houston Texans | 32 | 22 | -10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Washington Redskins | 31 | 28 | -3 | New York Giants |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 30 | 17 | -13 | New York Jets |
Green Bay Packers | 29 | 24 | -5 | Minnesota Vikings |
Tennessee Titans | 27 | 24 | -3 | New Orleans Saints |
Commentary and Action Items
We mentioned Houston being bad against quarterbacks above. They're also less-than-stellar against tight ends, especially when adjusting for strength of opponent. If Tampa Bay is going to move the ball, it will be through Winston. If they are limited at wide receiver due to injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, they'll lean on tight ends more. Consequently, this insight shouldn't be a surprise.
Cash games on three-game slates aren't as easy due to more lineup overlap, but O.J. Howard is borderline cash viable on the "Saturday only" slate. Both Howard and Brate are solid GPP plays on the Saturday slate as well.
Bucs QB Jameis Winston, likely without his top receivers this week, said he greeted tight ends O.J. Howard and Cam Brate by saying “Hey, y’all are going to get the rock.”
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 17, 2019
Beyond Saturday, don't overlook Kyle Rudolph. After a stretch of five touchdowns in four games, Rudolph has cooled over the last two. But Green Bay is strong on the perimeter than the middle, which would bring Rudolph back into play this week. He's off the DFS main slate, but he shouldn't be overlooked in season-long leagues. Rudolph is currently projected as a mid-TE2 here at Footballguys. That projection is closer to his floor than his ceiling, which is that of a top-six tight end.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com