Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Follow the Targets
- How Will They Score?
- Now #Trending
- What Have You Done for Me Lately?
- Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||||
Defense | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Opponent | ||||
Arizona Cardinals | 18.7% | 26 | 4 | 58.8% | 29 | 14 | 22.5% | 32 | 13 | Cleveland Browns | ||||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.0% | 6 | 1 | 62.3% | 32 | 21 | 19.7% | 30 | 7 | Detroit Lions | ||||
Detroit Lions | 19.7% | 30 | 8 | 63.6% | 28 | 13 | 16.7% | 16 | 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||||
Seattle Seahawks | 17.8% | 27 | 1 | 57.5% | 16 | 10 | 24.7% | 31 | 6 | Carolina Panthers | ||||
Oakland Raiders | 20.9% | 20 | 6 | 55.3% | 25 | 15 | 23.8% | 27 | 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | ||||
Houston Texans | 23.6% | 31 | 7 | 56.3% | 15 | 15 | 20.0% | 22 | 5 | Tennessee Titans | ||||
New York Giants | 21.7% | 24 | 0 | 58.5% | 31 | 18 | 19.8% | 10 | 6 | Miami Dolphins | ||||
Tennessee Titans | 23.6% | 29 | 3 | 54.8% | 21 | 10 | 21.6% | 25 | 7 | Houston Texans |
Commentary
- Arizona allows 183.1 yards per game to wide receivers, fourth-most in the NFL.
- Cleveland gains 164.4 yards per game via wide receivers, 11th-most.
- Tampa Bay allows 203.0 yards per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL.
- Detroit gains 199.0 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Tampa Bay has allowed 21 touchdowns to wide receivers, second-most.
- Detroit opponents target wide receivers on 63.6% of pass attempts, the fourth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay targets its wide receivers on 61.6% of its pass attempts, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Detroit allows 182.5 yards per game to wide receivers, fifth-most in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay gains 224.8 yards per game via wide receivers, most in the NFL.
- Oakland allows 174.1 yards per game to wide receivers, eighth-most.
- Jacksonville gains 185.2 yards per game via wide receivers, sixth-most.
- Tennessee allows 49.5 receiving yards per game to running backs, fourth-most.
- Tennessee opponents target running backs on 23.6% of pass attempts, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
Jarvis Landry has been the superior Cleveland wide receiver all season long, and news of Odell Beckham's sports hernia injury shouldn't change that. As long as Cleveland doesn't enter "give up" mode, they should move the ball and have success in the passing game. Landry is worthy of play in all DFS formats and is a locked-in WR1 in season-long leagues this week.
With Marvin Jones being out for the remainder of the season, 7.1 targets per game have opened up. Deep threat Marvin Hall is also on I.R., leaving Danny Amendola as the most likely candidate to see the majority of those looks. At his modest pricing in DFS, Amendola is one of the better points-per-dollar plays on the slate and is a PPR flex play with WR2 upside in season-long leagues.
Another target share set to change this week due to injury is Tampa Bay's. Mike Evans won't play with a hamstring injury, leaving Chris Godwin as the only proven commodity. But volume will open up for another player or two. Breshad Perriman is the most likely candidate to see an uptick in snaps (he played 83% last week and has played 60% or more in 6 of 10 healthy games this season).
Other candidates for more wide receiver volume in Tampa are Scott Miller and Justin Watson. Miller didn't play last week, which provided Watson the opportunity to rack up a 5-59-1 line. But Miller could return this week, making neither play very attractive. Perriman is a DFS GPP candidate due to the increased opportunity, his straight-line speed, and his 14.2-yard average depth-of-target this season.
Yet another wide receiver injury is the high ankle sprain to D.J. Chark. Jacksonville appears to have given up on the season, which brings some risk to playing anyone on the team. But Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook are cheap enough in DFS to consider the risk. Conley and Westbrook can be considered in all formats, especially when considering their projected increase in volume and the weakness of their opponent.
The Raiders' defense is now allowing a league-worst 3.3 touchdowns per game for the season. The Dolphins are just behind at 3.2 per game.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 9, 2019
Over the past two weeks, Duke Johnson Jr has played 68% and 53% of the team's snaps compared to 38% and 51% for Carlos Hyde. Johnson has 11 receptions, 94 yards, and 1 touchdown in those two games. In four games without Will Fuller this season, Johnson is averaging 1.8 more targets, 2.1 more receptions, and 15 more receiving yards than in the nine games Fuller has played.
How Will They Score?
This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. However, it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.
- Take each team's implied Vegas team total
- Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
- Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
- Do the same for rushing touchdowns
Note: Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.
Passing Points
Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off PaTD% | Def PaTD% | Proj. Pass |
Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins | 28.00 | 44.4% | 44.5% | 12.45 |
Minnesota Vikings | Los Angeles Chargers | 28.50 | 42.5% | 43.0% | 12.18 |
Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | 25.00 | 41.5% | 54.4% | 11.98 |
Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 25.25 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 11.94 |
Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | 25.25 | 47.3% | 47.1% | 11.92 |
Commentary
- Houston allows 70.8% of its yardage via the pass, the 10th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Houston allows 54.4% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the highest ratio.
- Tennessee scores a touchdown on 73.0% of its red zone drives, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Houston scores 47.3% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Tennessee allows 47.1% its total points via passing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio.
Action Items
Tennessee's offensive resurgence has been well-document across the fantasy industry, but these two tweets highlight it well. They've increased their efficiency and pace.
Titans' offensive TDs in Ryan Tannehill's 7 starts: 3 3 3 4 6 3 5
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 9, 2019
That 3.9 average is easily higher than the 3.6 per game the league-leading Ravens are averaging for the season.
Highest no-huddle rate, last four weeks:#Bills 38% #Cardinals 36%#Titans 21% 👀#Vikings 16%#Jags 15%#Cowboys 14%
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 9, 2019
This week's Rent-a-Quarterback wrote the following about Ryan Tannehill: He's a QB1, and it's time to get used to that. On top of that, the matchup and situation are good. He's a home favorite against a team allowing 24.3 fantasy points per game over the past five weeks. That figure is the most in the NFL.
Tannehill is a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues and a GPP play in DFS due to the potential shootout with Houston.
Speaking of the Houston-Tennessee game, a potential shootout and the way to beat Tennessee's defense both point to Johnson over Hyde. And as discussed in the section above, it appears that Houston is undergoing a change in philosophy over the past two weeks.
The popular construction this week will likely have the lower-priced players at wide receiver, making a GPP roster construction with one or two low-priced running backs automatically contrarian. Johnson is far from safe, but he's a DFS GPP play in PPR formats.
Rushing Points
Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off RuTD% | Def RuTD% | Proj. Rush |
Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 27.75 | 27.2% | 31.0% | 8.08 |
Seattle Seahawks | Carolina Panthers | 24.75 | 21.1% | 40.0% | 7.56 |
Minnesota Vikings | Los Angeles Chargers | 28.50 | 28.3% | 21.5% | 7.10 |
Carolina Panthers | Seattle Seahawks | 22.75 | 34.0% | 28.0% | 7.06 |
New England Patriots | Cincinnati Bengals | 26.00 | 24.9% | 27.7% | 6.83 |
Commentary
- Seattle gains 36.7% of its yardage via the run, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Carolina allows 37.2% of its yardage via the run, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Carolina allows 40.0% of its total points via rushing touchdowns, the highest ratio.
- Carolina scores 34.0% of its total points via rushing touchdowns, the highest ratio.
- Seattle allows 28.0% of its total points via rushing touchdowns, the sixth-highest ratio.
Action Items
Chris Carson should be back to commanding 90% or more of the Seattle backfield touches, and his matchup is as promising as his volume projection. Carson is a clear-cut RB1 in season-long leagues and a cash game play in DFS formats.
No recommendation is needed to play Christian McCaffrey, but the matchup against Seattle shouldn't scare anyone away. While Seattle allows plenty of rushing touchdowns, they only yield 27.8% of their yards via the rush, the fourth-lowest ratio in the league. That is mitigated, though, by the fact that Seattle also allows 48.8 receiving yards per game to running backs, sixth-most in the NFL.
Now #Trending
In this section, we're comparing how teams have performed on a raw fantasy points against basis over the past five weeks vs. how they performed prior to that.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
San Francisco 49ers | 31 | 2 | -29 | Atlanta Falcons |
Denver Broncos | 28 | 3 | -25 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Dallas Cowboys | 27 | 5 | -22 | Los Angeles Rams |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | 15 | -15 | Oakland Raiders |
Indianapolis Colts | 23 | 10 | -13 | New Orleans Saints |
"Last 5" = Fantasy Points per Game ranking to the position in the last 5 weeks
"Prior" = Fantasy Points per Game ranking to the position prior to that
"Delta" = Prior-Last 5 (negative numbers imply a defense getting worse; positive imply a defense improving)
Commentary and Action Items
Don't be scared of Patrick Mahomes II just because of the Denver matchup. The Broncos have yielded 265 or more passing yards in four of their last five games after doing so zero times prior. And Denver has allowed 39.0 rushing yards per game to the last four mobile quarterbacks they have faced (not counting games against Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins).
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
New Orleans Saints | 25 | 4 | -21 | Indianapolis Colts |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 | 16 | -16 | Oakland Raiders |
Houston Texans | 31 | 15 | -16 | Tennessee Titans |
Minnesota Vikings | 20 | 5 | -15 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 12 | -9 | Carolina Panthers |
Commentary and Action Items
If the Oakland running back situation provides clarity prior to Sunday, either Josh Jacobs or DeAndre Washington are solid plays. If Jacobs starts or if Washington starts with Jacobs inactive, either would be an RB2 play in season-long leagues. Washington would garner cash game consideration in DFS if Jacobs sits.
Houston's recent troubles align with Derrick Henry's surge.
Derrick Henry over the last month:
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 9, 2019
23/188/2
19/159/2
26/149/1
18/103/2
That’s 6.97 (!!) yards per carry in this beast-mode span.
Henry is on fire and can't be ignored as the main touchdown scorer in what has been an elite offense over the past seven weeks. Henry is a no-doubt RB1 in season-long leagues but more of a GPP play in DFS due to his big-ticket price and some similarly-projected players (such as Carson, for example) at lower prices.
Both Chargers backs are in play vs. Minnesota. The Vikings slide includes last week's game against a lowly Detroit team, meaning their "Last 5" number could be worse had they played an average opponent last week.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
Denver Broncos | 23 | 3 | -20 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Indianapolis Colts | 30 | 10 | -20 | New Orleans Saints |
Dallas Cowboys | 19 | 2 | -17 | Los Angeles Rams |
Chicago Bears | 20 | 6 | -14 | Green Bay Packers |
Miami Dolphins | 27 | 15 | -12 | New York Giants |
Commentary and Action Items
Davante Adams could be an intriguing play this week. He's coming off a stinker where he was "cash game safe," and he's facing a Chicago team that appears difficult but is trending down lately.
The Rams receivers look attractive against Dallas. Note that Cooper Kupp only played 20 snaps (29%) last week, while Woods played 69 of 70.
The Giants have a promising matchup as they host Miami this week. The return of Sterling Shepard was supposed to relegate Darius Slayton to afterthought status, but the Giants have been employing many three-receiver sets in the past three weeks.
In addition to the solid usage shown below, Slayton has outproduced his veteran teammates. Here are the trio's stats in the last three games, shown on a per-game basis to account for Tate's missed Week 13.
- Shepard - 4.0 receptions, 27.7 yards, 0.3 touchdowns
- Tate - 2.0 receptions, 22.0 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
- Slayton - 5.0 receptions, 83.3 yards, 0.7 touchdowns
Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Total | |||||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | ||||
Sterling Shepard | 95.0% | 26.5% | 22.2% | 85.1% | 18.9% | 23.8% | 92.3% | 24.1% | 21.2% | 90.5% | 23.0% | 22.4% | ||||
Golden Tate | 83.3% | 20.6% | 31.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 88.5% | 17.2% | 30.3% | 53.6% | 12.0% | 19.9% | ||||
Darius Slayton | 85.0% | 20.6% | 23.0% | 94.0% | 24.3% | 28.2% | 80.8% | 27.6% | 48.1% | 87.2% | 24.0% | 33.5% |
"Snap %" = percentage of team snaps played
"Tgt %" = percentage of team targets thrown to that player
"AirYd%" = percentage of team air yards thrown to that player
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | Last 5 | Prior | Delta | Opponent |
New England Patriots | 28 | 2 | -26 | Cincinnati Bengals |
Houston Texans | 31 | 9 | -22 | Tennessee Titans |
San Francisco 49ers | 24 | 3 | -21 | Atlanta Falcons |
New York Giants | 26 | 5 | -21 | Miami Dolphins |
Buffalo Bills | 18 | 1 | -17 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Commentary and Action Items
The table above is an illustration of how unpredictable tight end production is. Each of these teams started as elite defenses in limiting tight end production, but each have slipped dramatically in five weeks since. While tight end DvP shouldn't be our guiding light to make a decision, San Francisco would be the preferred team to attack this week of the five listed above.
Austin Hooper returned last week but only played 65% of the snaps (far below his pre-injury average) but saw six targets. If his snaps rise this week, his targets should too. And beating San Francisco on the perimeter is more difficult than up the middle. It's also worth noting the "How Will They Score" section above. Atlanta scores 50.0% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio in the NFL.
What Have You Done for Me Lately?
In this section, we'll examine the top fantasy producers on a per-game basis over the past five weeks. And since we're near the end of the season, we'll also include some "macro" thoughts to stash ahead of next season.
Quarterbacks
Name | PaYd | PaTD | RuYd | RuTD | FPs/Gm | Rank | ADP | Delta |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | 864 | 16 | 387 | 2 | 31.4 | QB 1 | QB 13 | 12 |
Ryan Tannehill | 1013 | 9 | 101 | 2 | 26.9 | QB 2 | QB 40 | 38 |
Jameis Winston | 1708 | 10 | 126 | 1 | 26.6 | QB 3 | QB 14 | 11 |
Dak Prescott | 1742 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 25.0 | QB 4 | QB 16 | 12 |
Josh Allen | 1084 | 7 | 192 | 4 | 24.9 | QB 5 | QB 21 | 16 |
Mitchell Trubisky | 1223 | 11 | 97 | 2 | 24.4 | QB 6 | QB 19 | 13 |
Drew Brees | 1359 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 24.2 | QB 7 | QB 7 | 0 |
Deshaun Watson | 993 | 6 | 65 | 2 | 23.7 | QB 8 | QB 2 | -6 |
Sam Darnold | 1347 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 23.7 | QB 9 | QB 24 | 15 |
Jimmy Garoppolo | 1439 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 23.5 | QB 10 | QB 20 | 10 |
Patrick Mahomes II | 1086 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 22.8 | QB 11 | QB 1 | -10 |
Kyler Murray | 831 | 7 | 135 | 2 | 22.5 | QB 12 | QB 15 | 3 |
"PaYd/RuYd" = passing yards/rushing yards
"PaTD/RuTD" = passing touchdowns/rushing touchdowns
"Rank" = positional ranking (fantasy points per game) in the last five weeks
"ADP" = preseason average draft position
"Delta" = ADP-Rank
Commentary and Action Items
- "Micro" - Mitchell Trubisky's season has been up and down, but the ceiling he showed in 2018 was on display last week. Two straight three-touchdown games (and three such games in his last five) make Trubisky an interesting GPP play in DFS. Once again, the Houston-Tennessee game looks attractive. It's the best matchup of recently-hot quarterbacks.
- "Macro" - The average ADP* of the top-6 quarterbacks over the past five weeks was QB20.5. If expanded to the top-12 quarterbacks, that figure is QB18.1. For undrafted players, a rank of QB40 was assumed. Takeaway: Late-round quarterbacks are viable, especially because streaming is even more viable later in the year with more opposition data available.
* The ADP list used for this exercise (and for the same in the sections to follow) included 223 offensive players.
Running Backs
Name | Rush | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPs/Gm | Rank | ADP | Delta |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Henry | 86 | 599 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 28.3 | RB 1 | RB 19 | 18 |
Christian McCaffrey | 81 | 339 | 2 | 44 | 363 | 1 | 26.4 | RB 2 | RB 2 | 0 |
Austin Ekeler | 28 | 160 | 0 | 18 | 300 | 3 | 20.5 | RB 3 | RB 29 | 26 |
Dalvin Cook | 64 | 214 | 4 | 17 | 165 | 0 | 19.7 | RB 4 | RB 11 | 7 |
Leonard Fournette | 61 | 208 | 2 | 28 | 162 | 0 | 19.3 | RB 5 | RB 12 | 7 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 88 | 330 | 3 | 17 | 162 | 1 | 18.0 | RB 6 | RB 4 | -2 |
Joe Mixon | 105 | 469 | 3 | 10 | 120 | 0 | 17.4 | RB 7 | RB 10 | 3 |
Aaron Jones | 53 | 283 | 4 | 10 | 71 | 0 | 17.4 | RB 8 | RB 16 | 8 |
Melvin Gordon | 68 | 331 | 2 | 11 | 86 | 0 | 16.2 | RB 9 | RB 23 | 14 |
Alvin Kamara | 52 | 239 | 0 | 35 | 186 | 0 | 15.5 | RB 10 | RB 3 | -7 |
Mark Ingram | 67 | 302 | 2 | 9 | 76 | 3 | 15.4 | RB 11 | RB 20 | 9 |
LeVeon Bell | 58 | 174 | 2 | 15 | 161 | 0 | 15.1 | RB 12 | RB 6 | -6 |
Todd Gurley | 85 | 366 | 3 | 11 | 87 | 0 | 14.9 | RB 13 | RB 9 | -4 |
James White | 27 | 137 | 0 | 18 | 135 | 2 | 14.7 | RB 14 | RB 25 | 11 |
Chris Carson | 71 | 293 | 2 | 11 | 65 | 0 | 14.7 | RB 15 | RB 18 | 3 |
Raheem Mostert | 47 | 301 | 3 | 8 | 91 | 1 | 14.2 | RB 16 | RB 75 | 59 |
Kareem Hunt | 34 | 153 | 2 | 22 | 158 | 1 | 14.2 | RB 17 | RB 45 | 28 |
Nick Chubb | 99 | 478 | 1 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 14.1 | RB 18 | RB 8 | -10 |
Devin Singletary | 75 | 375 | 0 | 14 | 87 | 1 | 13.2 | RB 19 | RB 40 | 21 |
Miles Sanders | 55 | 229 | 0 | 14 | 78 | 1 | 12.7 | RB 20 | RB 31 | 11 |
Derrius Guice | 32 | 227 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 12.7 | RB 21 | RB 33 | 12 |
Devonta Freeman | 44 | 173 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 12.5 | RB 22 | RB 15 | -7 |
Josh Jacobs | 66 | 321 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 12.4 | RB 23 | RB 17 | -6 |
Commentary and Action Items
$8.5M free agent RB Tevin Coleman has been dusted by #TeamPreseason Hall of Famer Raheem Mostert. Snaps last two weeks:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 9, 2019
Mostert 78 (38 yesterday)
Tevin 20 (10 yesterday)
Breida 12 (12 yesterday)
- "Micro" - As shown in the tweet above, Raheem Mostert is the current RB1 on a highly-productive offense that should be in positive game scripts more often than not. Mostert can only be projected as a flex play in season-long leagues, but he has GPP appeal in DFS. Further illustration that the Tennessee offense is firing on all cylinders, Henry is at the top of this list with Tannehill as QB2 on the prior list.
- "Macro" - The average ADP of the top-12 on this table is 12.6. The top-24 average is 20.8. For undrafted players, a rank of RB75 was assumed. Takeaway: It's harder to find late-round/undrafted gems at running back than quarterback. But they do exist, which makes keeping tabs on each backfield vital for fantasy success.
Wide Receivers
Name | Rec | ReYd | Yds/Rec | ReTD | FPs/Gm | Rank | ADP | Delta |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Thomas | 48 | 549 | 11.4 | 3 | 24.2 | WR 1 | WR 4 | 3 |
Robert Woods | 33 | 462 | 14.0 | 1 | 22.0 | WR 2 | WR 16 | 14 |
Darius Slayton | 25 | 386 | 15.4 | 4 | 21.9 | WR 3 | WR 85 | 82 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 25 | 358 | 14.3 | 3 | 21.1 | WR 4 | WR 1 | -3 |
D.J. Moore | 33 | 497 | 15.1 | 3 | 20.2 | WR 5 | WR 26 | 21 |
Jarvis Landry | 33 | 440 | 13.3 | 4 | 20.2 | WR 6 | WR 27 | 21 |
Julian Edelman | 27 | 347 | 12.9 | 2 | 19.6 | WR 7 | WR 14 | 7 |
Calvin Ridley | 30 | 423 | 14.1 | 3 | 18.7 | WR 8 | WR 22 | 14 |
Chris Godwin | 27 | 446 | 16.5 | 3 | 17.9 | WR 9 | WR 20 | 11 |
Allen Robinson | 29 | 366 | 12.6 | 4 | 17.9 | WR 9 | WR 29 | 20 |
Christian Kirk | 23 | 287 | 12.5 | 3 | 17.6 | WR 11 | WR 37 | 26 |
Keenan Allen | 27 | 290 | 10.7 | 2 | 17.5 | WR 12 | WR 11 | -1 |
DeVante Parker | 27 | 482 | 17.9 | 2 | 17.4 | WR 13 | WR 63 | 50 |
Davante Adams | 24 | 266 | 11.1 | 3 | 17.2 | WR 14 | WR 2 | -12 |
A.J. Brown | 13 | 350 | 26.9 | 3 | 16.8 | WR 15 | WR 85 | 70 |
Deebo Samuel | 25 | 413 | 16.5 | 2 | 16.7 | WR 16 | WR 59 | 43 |
D.J. Chark | 24 | 264 | 11.0 | 2 | 15.6 | WR 17 | WR 85 | 68 |
Michael Gallup | 26 | 451 | 17.3 | 1 | 15.4 | WR 18 | WR 45 | 27 |
James Washington | 20 | 381 | 19.1 | 3 | 15.2 | WR 19 | WR 46 | 27 |
John Brown | 22 | 305 | 13.9 | 3 | 15.2 | WR 20 | WR 55 | 35 |
Amari Cooper | 28 | 353 | 12.6 | 2 | 15.1 | WR 21 | WR 12 | -9 |
Cole Beasley | 24 | 327 | 13.6 | 3 | 14.9 | WR 22 | WR 68 | 46 |
Kenny Golladay | 18 | 368 | 20.4 | 3 | 14.6 | WR 23 | WR 19 | -4 |
Commentary and Action Items
- "Micro" - We mentioned Slayton in the section above, and it seems like a "hot hand" situation. D.J. Moore is another player whose recent success may continue due to sustained volume.
- "Macro" - The average ADP of the top-12 on this table is 24.3. The top-24 average is 37.9. For undrafted players, a rank of WR85 was assumed. Takeaway: Buy into potential break-outs for young players. Moore, Slayton, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, and Christian Kirk are all good examples.
Tight Ends
Name | Rec | ReYd | Yds/Rec | ReTD | FPs/Gm | Rank | ADP | Delta |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zach Ertz | 33 | 300 | 9.1 | 3 | 20.3 | TE 1 | TE 2 | 1 |
Travis Kelce | 26 | 323 | 12.4 | 2 | 19.2 | TE 2 | TE 1 | -1 |
Jared Cook | 19 | 355 | 18.7 | 4 | 15.7 | TE 3 | TE 7 | 4 |
George Kittle | 14 | 213 | 15.2 | 2 | 15.7 | TE 4 | TE 3 | -1 |
Kyle Rudolph | 15 | 142 | 9.5 | 4 | 13.3 | TE 5 | TE 13 | 8 |
Mark Andrews | 16 | 237 | 14.8 | 4 | 12.7 | TE 6 | TE 14 | 8 |
Darren Waller | 24 | 332 | 13.8 | 0 | 11.4 | TE 7 | TE 20 | 13 |
Tyler Higbee | 22 | 265 | 12 | 1 | 10.9 | TE 8 | TE 30 | 22 |
Greg Olsen | 21 | 221 | 10.5 | 0 | 10.8 | TE 9 | TE 15 | 6 |
Dallas Goedert | 19 | 175 | 9.2 | 1 | 10.6 | TE 10 | TE 22 | 12 |
Jacob Hollister | 20 | 162 | 8.1 | 1 | 10.6 | TE 11 | TE 30 | 19 |
Hunter Henry | 14 | 148 | 10.6 | 2 | 10.2 | TE 12 | TE 6 | -6 |
Commentary and Action Items
- "Micro" - Players like Tyler Higbee and Jacob Hollister have seen increased volume due to injuries to teammates. Continue riding the wave. Similarly, touchdown vulture Foster Moreau is on I.R., which could enhance Darren Waller's volume. It's not shown in the chart because Greg Olsen's injury is only one game old, but if Olsen is out again this week, Ian Thomas is a TE1 candidate based on last week's usage.
No surprise with Ian Thomas usage yesterday:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 9, 2019
* 61-of-71 snaps
* 45 routes on 51 Kyle Allen dropbacks
* 47 snaps (!!!) lined up slot or wide
* 10 targets for a 24% share
- "Macro" - The average ADP of the top-12 on this table is 6.7. The top-24 average is 13.6. For undrafted players, a rank of TE30 was assumed. Takeaway: Youth and athleticism matter for flier picks at tight end. Waller, Higbee, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, and Mike Gesicki are prime examples.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
The speed at which teams play is an often-overlooked piece of fantasy analysis and projections. If teams play fast, they give their players more chances for production. Because offenses have more control over tempo than defenses, we'll look at the fastest offenses and the speed of the offenses they're facing this week.
Note: the pace rankings here are based on neutral situations, so end-game situations that would increase or decrease pace due to factors beyond a team's general preference have been excluded. All pace stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders.
Uptempo Offense | Pace Rank | Opposing Offense | Pace Rank |
New England Patriots | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 |
Arizona Cardinals | 2 | Cleveland Browns | 26 |
Dallas Cowboys | 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 |
Los Angeles Rams | 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 5 | Denver Broncos | 18 |
Carolina Panthers | 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 23 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | New England Patriots | 1 |
New York Giants | 8 | Miami Dolphins | 12 |
Buffalo Bills | 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 |
Atlanta Falcons | 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 16 |
Both columns show offensive tempo rankings.
Commentary and Action Items
The New England-Cincinnati game and L.A. Rams-Dallas game should be high-volume affairs as both feature two teams in the top-10 of offensive tempo. The Miami-N.Y. Giants game is another between two top-12 pace teams.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com