Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Funnel Watch
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- Volume vs. Touchdowns
- Looks Can Be Deceiving
- Going Deep
- The Weakest Links
Funnel Watch
This section will examine the defenses that are strong against the run but weak against the pass and those strong against the pass but weak against the run.
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% |
Oakland Raiders | 285.3 | 92.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 285.9 | 68.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
Houston Texans | 276.8 | 85.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
Baltimore Ravens | 265.4 | 84.3 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
New York Jets | 262.6 | 94.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 256.1 | 90.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
"PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game
"RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game
"NYd/Att" = net yards per pass attempt (factors in sack yardage)
"Yd/Rush" = yards per carry
"PassYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the rush
Commentary
The defenses above are in the top one-third of the league in passing yards per game allowed and the bottom one-third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed.
- Detroit gains 75.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Oakland allows 75.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Seattle averages 7.5 net yards per pass attempt, the fourth-highest average in the NFL.
- Tampa Bay allows 80.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio.
- New England runs 70.5 offensive plays per game, second-most in the NFL.
- Baltimore runs 70.8 offensive plays per game, most in the NFL.
- New England gains 74.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-highest ratio.
- Baltimore allows 75.9% of its total yardage via the pass, the third-highest ratio.
Action Items
Noting funnel defenses is helpful, but when offenses capable of passing are facing those defenses, the possibilities are exciting. Detroit (at Oakland), New England (at Baltimore), and Seattle (vs. Tampa Bay) all qualify.
Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady top-five potential in season-long leagues, and Russell Wilson could be the week's top overall quarterback.
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% |
Carolina Panthers | 215.1 | 135.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 217.4 | 122.8 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
Cleveland Browns | 222.1 | 143.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 232.0 | 145.0 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 61.5% | 38.5% |
"PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game
"RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game
"NYd/Att" = net yards per pass attempt (factors in sack yardage)
"Yd/Rush" = yards per carry
"PassYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the rush
Commentary
The defenses above are in the top one-third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed and the bottom one-third of the league in passing yards per game allowed.
- Minnesota runs on 47.7% of its neutral-script plays, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Kansas City faces a run on 50.8% of its neutral-script plays, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Minnesota averages 4.9 yards per rush attempt, the fourth-highest average.
- Kansas City allows 4.9 yards per rush attempt, the third-highest average.
- Minnesota gains 40.9% of its total yardage via the run, the third-highest ratio.
- Kansas City allows 38.5% of its total yardage via the run, the sixth-highest ratio.
Action Items
Unlike the pass funnel section above, the offenses opposing these teams don't show as much on-paper capability of exploiting them. Dalvin Cook is the one exception. He could be the week's top overall running back, but it's going to be difficult to fit his price under the cap in DFS.
Strengths and Weaknesses
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
Passing | ||||||
Offensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Kansas City Chiefs | 78.9% | 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 71.5% | 23 | 75.2% |
New England Patriots | 74.2% | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 75.9% | 30 | 75.1% |
Detroit Lions | 74.5% | 6 | Oakland Raiders | 75.4% | 29 | 75.0% |
Miami Dolphins | 74.2% | 8 | New York Jets | 73.5% | 27 | 73.8% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 80.2% | 3 | Green Bay Packers | 67.0% | 12 | 73.6% |
"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- New England passes on 63.5% of its neutral-script plays, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Baltimore faces a pass on 61.4% of its neutral-script plays, the 12th-highest ratio.
- Detroit scores 53.3% of its points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
- Oakland allows 59.4% of its points via passing touchdowns, the second-highest ratio.
Action Items
If the "How Will They Score" section from last week was appearing here again, it would show Detroit with 13.67 projected passing points, the highest such figure in the league this week. Both Stafford and Derek Carr are in play this week as QB1 selections in season-long leagues and in DFS. Stafford is cash game-viable, though I'd prefer Wilson for not much more price. Carr is a GPP play.
Rushing | ||||||
Offensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Baltimore Ravens | 46.9% | 1 | New England Patriots | 36.4% | 26 | 41.7% |
Minnesota Vikings | 40.4% | 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 38.5% | 27 | 39.4% |
San Francisco 49ers | 46.8% | 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 32.0% | 20 | 39.4% |
Arizona Cardinals | 34.0% | 12 | San Francisco 49ers | 42.6% | 32 | 38.3% |
Denver Broncos | 35.2% | 11 | Cleveland Browns | 39.2% | 30 | 37.2% |
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- Minnesota scores 34.1%% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Kansas City allows 33.1% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the fifth-highest ratio.
- Based on the "How Will They Score" exercise, Minnesota is projected for 8.58 rushing points this week, most in the NFL.
Volume vs. Touchdowns
Touchdowns are the biggest factor in fantasy football scoring, but they're also the most unpredictable. Snaps, touches, and yards are more predictive of future value than touchdowns. Therefore, this section will look at players in the top-36 at wide receiver and running back and the top-24 at quarterback and examine what percentage of their fantasy points come from touchdowns.
The intent here is to identify players with positive touchdown regression forthcoming.
This week, we're showing both sides of possible regression. The players with lower percentages in the "TD FP%" column are those potentially due for some positive touchdown regression.
Those with high numbers in that column have accumulated a high portion of their fantasy points via touchdowns, suggesting that they might decrease their touchdown production in the near future.
Wide Receivers | |||||||
Player | Tgts | Tgt% | Rec | ReYd | TDs | FPs/Gm | TD FP% |
Jarvis Landry | 56 | 24.9% | 30 | 504 | 0 | 11.6 | 0.0% |
Tyler Boyd | 82 | 25.0% | 51 | 535 | 1 | 13.7 | 5.5% |
Robert Woods | 60 | 19.2% | 39 | 473 | 1 | 12.3 | 6.1% |
D.J. Moore | 58 | 24.0% | 38 | 463 | 1 | 13.0 | 6.6% |
Odell Beckham | 61 | 27.1% | 34 | 488 | 1 | 12.7 | 6.7% |
John Brown | 53 | 23.8% | 38 | 527 | 2 | 14.7 | 11.6% |
Terry McLaurin | 46 | 20.3% | 28 | 458 | 5 | 14.8 | 28.9% |
Mecole Hardman | 32 | 11.0% | 20 | 377 | 4 | 9.9 | 30.2% |
T.Y. Hilton | 47 | 21.1% | 32 | 360 | 5 | 16.3 | 30.6% |
Kenny Golladay | 55 | 22.5% | 31 | 508 | 6 | 16.5 | 31.1% |
Tyrell Williams | 30 | 13.8% | 20 | 307 | 5 | 16.1 | 37.2% |
Adam Thielen | 42 | 20.6% | 27 | 391 | 7 | 15.5 | 38.8% |
Cleveland has two wide receivers potentially due for positive regression. Does that mean the Browns passing offense as a whole is likely to improve? Perhaps, but with an upcoming schedule of at Denver, vs. Buffalo, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Miami, and at Pittsburgh, there's only one easy game until December. The Cleveland duo are a hold (not a buy).
On the other side of things, Detroit has two receivers scoring plenty of touchdowns (Kenny Golladay is shown, and Marvin Jones has the next-highest "TD FP%" to the six players shown here). Detroit's regression could be coming. After this week's game at Oakland, they'll face the following schedule: at Chicago, vs. Dallas, at Washington, vs. Chicago, at Minnesota. Only Washington is a strong matchup there. If you sell the Detroit receivers, go for it (especially after this week).
Running Backs | |||||||
Player | Rush | Tgts | RuYd | ReYd | TDs | FPs/Gm | TD FP% |
Leonard Fournette | 163 | 45 | 791 | 263 | 1 | 18.1 | 4.2% |
James White | 23 | 53 | 65 | 358 | 1 | 12.9 | 6.6% |
Alvin Kamara | 86 | 39 | 373 | 276 | 2 | 18.4 | 10.9% |
LeVeon Bell | 108 | 46 | 349 | 187 | 2 | 13.9 | 12.3% |
Royce Freeman | 88 | 33 | 359 | 182 | 2 | 11.5 | 13.0% |
Miles Sanders | 66 | 24 | 294 | 274 | 2 | 11.0 | 13.7% |
Aaron Jones | 114 | 43 | 466 | 355 | 11 | 22.5 | 36.6% |
Jordan Howard | 100 | 13 | 443 | 68 | 6 | 12.0 | 37.5% |
Mark Ingram | 98 | 13 | 466 | 96 | 7 | 15.8 | 38.0% |
Sony Michel | 140 | 9 | 466 | 51 | 6 | 11.4 | 39.3% |
Todd Gurley | 92 | 24 | 355 | 81 | 7 | 14.1 | 42.6% |
Tevin Coleman | 71 | 10 | 332 | 61 | 6 | 16.7 | 43.2% |
A word of caution on using this exercise for running backs:
- Two teams (New England and Philadelphia) have one running back on each side of the list.
- That doesn't mean automatically that Miles Sanders and James White will start scoring more touchdowns while Jordan Howard and Sony Michel start scoring fewer.
- Howard and Michel have high "TD FP%" rates because they are used in that specific role while White and Sanders help accumulate the other fantasy point-yielding activities between the 20s.
What does Leonard Fournette have to do to get a touchdown? He got two goal-line carries in a row last week but ended up losing a chunk of yardage on the second. Fournette remains a hold if you have him and a buy if you don't.
LeVeon Bell was (allegedly) almost traded on Tuesday. But that shouldn't interfere with him scoring on Sunday. Bell is seeing plenty of opportunity, and now he gets the magic fantasy football elixir that is Miami.
Below is more on Fournette, Bell, and others. Way back in Week 2, we introduced a section called "Running Back Buy-Lows." The name could probably use some work, but the methodology (click the link for the descriptions) is to show players who accumulate high-value touches and highlight why those are (and aren't) resulting in more touchdowns.
Below is an updated table with stats through Week 8.
Player | Games | Targets | Carries | 5 and In | Actual FPs/Gm | Expected FPs/Gm | Expected vs. Actual |
Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 49 | 141 | 9 | 30.7 | 25.1 | -5.6 |
Leonard Fournette | 8 | 45 | 163 | 4 | 18.9 | 21.7 | 2.7 |
Dalvin Cook | 8 | 34 | 156 | 13 | 25.0 | 21.0 | -4.0 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 30 | 135 | 9 | 20.4 | 20.3 | -0.1 |
Chris Carson | 8 | 27 | 159 | 4 | 17.0 | 17.8 | 0.8 |
Nick Chubb | 7 | 27 | 134 | 4 | 21.0 | 18.3 | -2.8 |
LeVeon Bell | 7 | 42 | 109 | 2 | 14.9 | 19.1 | 4.1 |
Marlon Mack | 7 | 13 | 138 | 3 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 0.9 |
Saquon Barkley | 5 | 33 | 74 | 3 | 19.9 | 20.2 | 0.3 |
Alvin Kamara | 6 | 39 | 86 | 3 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 0.1 |
This table is sorted by opportunities (carries plus targets) per game.
"5 and In" = the total number of carries from the 5 yard-line and closer
"Actual FPs/Gm" = DraftKings fantasy points per game played
"Expected FPs/Gm" = (Targets x 1.59) + ((Total Carries - 5 and In) x 0.58) + (5 and In x 2.37)
"Expected vs. Actual" = a comparison of FPs/Gm and Exp. FPs/Gm
This is calculated as follows (Expected FPs/Gm - Actual FPs/Gm)
Here, a positive number indicates a player with more Expected Fantasy Points than actual Fantasy Points.
These players have high-value opportunities that indicate they could outperform year-to-date performance.
Once again, Bell and Fournette stick out, with high "Expected vs. Actual" numbers, suggesting that touchdown production is the only thing lacking from their profiles. Bell is a DFS play in any format this week - especially in cash games.
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 19 | -11 | New York Jets |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 15 | -8 | Houston Texans |
Baltimore Ravens | 20 | 12 | -8 | New England Patriots |
Carolina Panthers | 11 | 18 | 7 | Tennessee Titans |
Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 23 | 8 | Minnesota Vikings |
Oakland Raiders | 23 | 32 | 9 | Detroit Lions |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP
Commentary and Action Items
Once again, we see something pointing us to New England's passing game and Baltimore's passing defense. This time, NSoS shows us that Baltimore isn't the better-than-average fantasy defense that their DvP vs. quarterbacks suggests. When adjusted for strength of schedule, they're worse than average.
On the other side, Carolina and Kansas City are better than their raw stats show against opposing passers. The fact that both teams are so poor against the run could lead good quarterbacks to pass less often, which is something Tennessee (at Carolina) and Minnesota (at Kansas City) could do this week.
Oakland has the largest delta between NSoS and DvP, but nothing about the 10th-worst NSoS team is scary enough to fade the Detroit passing game this week.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Baltimore Ravens | 27 | 9 | -18 | New England Patriots |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 20 | -10 | New York Jets |
Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 19 | -10 | San Francisco 49ers |
Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 22 | 12 | New York Giants |
Cleveland Browns | 14 | 27 | 13 | Denver Broncos |
New York Jets | 12 | 26 | 14 | Miami Dolphins |
Commentary and Action Items
Here are Baltimore and Miami again, but this graphic suggests they're worse against running backs than the raw stats suggest. The prior graphic said they struggle against passers. Showing up in both suggests average performance against a weaker-than-average schedule.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 18 | -12 | New York Jets |
Baltimore Ravens | 26 | 16 | -10 | New England Patriots |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 | 9 | -10 | Indianapolis Colts |
Arizona Cardinals | 12 | 25 | 13 | San Francisco 49ers |
Oakland Raiders | 12 | 26 | 14 | Detroit Lions |
Carolina Panthers | 14 | 29 | 15 | Tennessee Titans |
Commentary and Action Items
Once again, we see both Miami and Baltimore. Seeing that they're third-worst in NSoS despite being a middling team in DvP isn't surprising, but it is noteworthy. Sam Darnold and the Jets haven't been good this year, but getting the Dolphins without Xavien Howard could be the shot in the arm they need. Demaryius Thomas has nine, five, nine, and five targets in his last four games and is still priced inexpensively in DFS. Thomas is cash game-viable this week.
Carolina shows up on the bottom once again. Tennessee's passing game can be avoided this week, but their running game should be considered.
- Carolina allows 5.0 yards per carry this year, the second-highest average in the NFL.
- Carolina allows 5.2 net yards per pass attempt, the third-lowest average.
- Carolina allows 135.1 rushing yards per game, sixth-most.
- Carolina allows 215.1 passing yards per game, fifth-fewest.
- Carolina allows 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs, most in the NFL.
- Carolina allows a touchdown on 66.7% of red zone drives, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
- Carolina is allowing 19.4 rushing fantasy points per game, most in the NFL.
Carolina has an NSoS-DvP delta of 7, 15, and 10 to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, respectively. They are much better at defending the pass than the run. It's hard to trust Derrick Henry in cash because his snaps are reduced significantly when Tennessee trails, but Henry is a GPP candidate this week due to the matchup and his affordable price.
Going Deep
In this section, we'll examine teams that throw deep passes at a high rate vs. the defenses they are playing against this week. This section defines a deep pass attempt as an attempt of 15 or more air yards.
Offensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% | Defensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% |
Detroit Lions | 9.0 | 25.2% | Oakland Raiders | 7.4 | 21.5% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 9.3 | 24.9% | Minnesota Vikings | 6.5 | 17.8% |
New York Jets | 7.0 | 22.9% | Miami Dolphins | 7.7 | 26.5% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 8.8 | 22.9% | Green Bay Packers | 7.3 | 21.0% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.3 | 22.1% | Seattle Seahawks | 5.8 | 15.2% |
"Att./Gm." = the number of passes 15 yards or more downfield attempted by an offense or faced by a defense
"Deep%" = the percentage of overall passes that are 15 or more yards downfield thrown by an offense or faced by a defense
Commentary
- The Jets attempt a deep pass on 22.9% of their overall attempts, the third-highest ratio.
- Miami faces a deep pass on 26.5% of attempts, the highest ratio.
- Detroit attempts a deep pass on 25.2% of its overall attempts, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Detroit attempts 9.0 deep passes per game, second-most.
- Oakland faces a deep pass on 21.5% of attempts, the fifth-highest ratio.
Action Items
We mentioned the Jets passing game above in stating that Thomas was a viable cash game play this week. But Robby Anderson is also in play. Miami plays a ton of man-to-man coverage, leaving cornerbacks on islands on the perimeter of the field. With the aforementioned Howard on injured reserve, the remaining players are beatable, as evidenced by Mason Rudolph's in-game improvement and JuJu Smith-Schuster's first 100-yard game on Monday night.
Excluding Vyncint Smith (who has only six targets on the year), Anderson has the highest average depth-of-target (aDOT) at 13.6 yards. Thomas is close behind him at 11.5 yards, but speed after the catch and big-play ability make Anderson the preferred GPP option for the Jets.
Detroit's top two receivers are used similarly as well. Kenny Golladay's average target is 15.4 yards downfield, and Marvin Jones' is 13.2 yards. Both are in play as GPP options.
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
vs. Quarterbacks | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 28 | -4 | Seattle Seahawks |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 19 | -11 | New York Jets |
Detroit Lions | 27 | 30 | 3 | Oakland Raiders |
Houston Texans | 27 | 26 | -1 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
Arizona Cardinals | 26 | 29 | 3 | San Francisco 49ers |
Commentary and Action Items
Tampa Bay is truly dreadful against the pass, no matter how they are measured. It will be interesting to see if Seattle bends their typically run-focused game plan to exploit an obvious weakness in the opposing defense. Expect Wilson to bolster his MVP case this week. Pay whatever you must for Wilson in DFS this week.
Carr was the cover boy in this week's Rent-a-Quarterback. He has top-12 potential. And if Detroit doesn't fall victim to a let-down game in a short road favorite spot, Carr could tease the top half-dozen in terms of weekly ranking.
Gardner Minshew is worth a look again this week for season-long folks with desperate situations. His high floor has been present in all but one game this season, and Houston doesn't represent a difficult test.
vs. Running Backs | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 31 | -1 | Minnesota Vikings |
Los Angeles Chargers | 31 | 23 | -8 | Green Bay Packers |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 20 | -10 | New York Jets |
Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 19 | -10 | San Francisco 49ers |
Buffalo Bills | 28 | 24 | -4 | Washington Redskins |
Commentary and Action Items
Kansas City has been attacked by the run all season long, as evidenced by the figures in "Funnel Watch" above. When teams can keep the game neutral against them, they exploit the Chiefs on the ground. Minnesota should be able to keep the game within reach, especially if Matt Moore is involved for Kansas City. And even if they can't, Cook is involved in the passing game and can prove his fantasy worth that way. Among the elite high-priced running backs, Cook is preferred to Christian McCaffrey.
For those unaware, Miami is bad at everything. As mentioned in "Volume vs. Touchdowns" above, Bell should have positive touchdown regression coming his way. He also gets a positive matchup this week. Bell should be among the first cash game plays considered this week.
vs. Wide Receivers | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 32 | 0 | Seattle Seahawks |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 18 | -12 | New York Jets |
Cleveland Browns | 29 | 23 | -6 | Denver Broncos |
Houston Texans | 28 | 30 | 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
Philadelphia Eagles | 27 | 28 | 1 | Chicago Bears |
Commentary and Action Items
If a team is dreadful against quarterbacks, they're likely bad against wide receivers too. Thus, if we expect a huge game from Wilson due to the matchup, we should expect one from his wide receivers as well. Tyler Lockett is the more consistent receiver and the clear number one option.
Lockett's consistency has been remarkable. Despite playing in a run-centric offense, Lockett has at least 75 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 10 of his last 11 games, dating back to Week 16 of last season. This streak includes the team's playoff game last season. Lockett is viable in any DFS format this week, but he may be a sneaky GPP option on DraftKings due to his price being high with the matchup-based pricing algorithm.
Anderson and Thomas were mentioned above in what should be a good matchup for all Jets skill players. Across the pond in London, Jacksonville finds a plus matchup against Houston. D.J. Chark and Chris Conley (especially if Dede Westbrook is out) should benefit not only from a juicy matchup but also from a narrow target tree if Westbrook sits out (which is a strong possibility considering the team has a bye next week).
vs. Tight Ends | ||||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta | Opponent |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 32 | 0 | Seattle Seahawks |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 | 10 | -21 | Houston Texans |
Oakland Raiders | 30 | 29 | -1 | Detroit Lions |
Detroit Lions | 29 | 30 | 1 | Oakland Raiders |
Washington Redskins | 27 | 17 | -10 | Buffalo Bills |
Commentary and Action Items
Tight end DvP can be tricky to predict. NSoS is a bit better, but in most cases, selecting tight ends should be done more by offensive scheme and usage than by defense. That's what makes T.J. Hockenson a notable play but not a safe one. Detroit doesn't use Hockenson a lot, but he has shown the athletic ability to make high-leverage plays when called upon.
We've detailed above that Detroit's passing game is in a great on-paper spot. With the DFS masses flocking to Golladay and Jones, pivoting to Hockenson in GPPs makes some sense.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com