Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- Volume vs. Touchdowns
- Looks Can Be Deceiving
- Now #Trending
- The Weakest Links
Strengths and Weaknesses
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
Passing | ||||||
Offensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
Atlanta Falcons | 81.2% | 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 69.6% | 20 | 75.4% |
Dallas Cowboys | 68.7% | 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 79.4% | 31 | 74.0% |
New England Patriots | 73.7% | 6 | New York Jets | 73.2% | 25 | 73.5% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 81.6% | 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 64.8% | 8 | 73.2% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 78.2% | 4 | Tennessee Titans | 67.5% | 12 | 72.9% |
Green Bay Packers | 70.2% | 13 | Oakland Raiders | 74.1% | 27 | 72.2% |
Seattle Seahawks | 67.3% | 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 77.0% | 30 | 72.1% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 80.4% | 3 | Denver Broncos | 63.7% | 7 | 72.0% |
"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- Atlanta gains 81.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- The Rams allow 69.6% of their total yardage via the pass, the 13th-highest ratio.
- The Rams face 66.7 defensive plays per game, seventh-most in the NFL.
- Philadelphia allows 79.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
- Philadelphia allows 52.3% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
- New England gains 73.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio.
- The Jets allow 73.2% of their total yardage via the pass, the eighth-highest ratio.
- Green Bay gains 70.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the 13th-highest ratio.
- Oakland allows 74.1% of its total yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Oakland allows 53.7% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
- Green Bay throws a pass on 65.2% of its neutral-script offensive plays, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Oakland faces a pass on 69.2% of its neutral-script defensive plays, the second-highest ratio.
- Oakland allows 2.37 points per drive, fifth-most in the NFL.
Action Items
It will be newsworthy if this column ever tells you not to start Matt Ryan and do a deep-dive on Atlanta's receivers. The Rams aren't an easy-to-beat passing defense, but Atlanta will score. And they'll do so via the passing game. The game's project temp only helps matters.
Dallas is a middling passing offense, but lesser attacks have torched Philadelphia this season. Those include 380 yards and 3 touchdowns allowed to Case Keenum and 333 yards and 4 touchdowns allowed to Kirk Cousins last week. With Amari Cooper potentially sidelined, Michael Gallup should take center stage in a great matchup. Gallup is a high-end WR2 in season-long leagues, though he is probably just a GPP play in DFS because his price is high relative to his projections.
It seems that we're overdue for a quintessential "Aaron Rodgers Game." And while the feeling qualifies as #NarrativeStreet, the stars (and, more importantly, the stats) align for it to happen this week. How many times have we seen Rodgers outclass an inferior opponent at Lambeau to the tune of four or more touchdowns? With Oakland and their poor secondary in town, Rodgers has high-end QB1 upside this week. In DFS, he's a GPP play due to "sexier" matchup-based plays surrounding him (Josh Allen and Matt Ryan).
Rushing | ||||||
Offensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
San Francisco 49ers | 44.1% | 2 | Washington Redskins | 34.8% | 24 | 39.4% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 34.9% | 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 43.3% | 32 | 39.1% |
Buffalo Bills | 37.5% | 6 | Miami Dolphins | 38.6% | 29 | 38.0% |
Minnesota Vikings | 42.7% | 3 | Detroit Lions | 32.3% | 20 | 37.5% |
Denver Broncos | 34.5% | 11 | Kansas City Chiefs | 39.8% | 30 | 37.2% |
Tennessee Titans | 35.4% | 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 37.5% | 28 | 36.4% |
Oakland Raiders | 38.6% | 5 | Green Bay Packers | 34.2% | 22 | 36.4% |
Baltimore Ravens | 45.5% | 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 25.8% | 5 | 35.6% |
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
- San Francisco gains 44.2% of its total yardage via the run, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Washington allows 34.8% of its total yardage via the run, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Jacksonville gains 34.9% of its total yardage via the run, the 10th-highest ratio.
- Cincinnati allows 43.3% of its total yardage via the run, the highest ratio.
- Cincinnati allows 6.5 yards per play, second-most in the NFL.
- Cincinnati allows 5.3 yards per rush, most in the NFL.
- Cincinnati allows 34.0% of its total points via rushing touchdowns, the eighth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Buffalo gains 37.5% of its total yardage via the run, the sixth-highest ratio.
- Miami allows 38.6% of its total yardage via the run, the fourth-highest ratio.
- Miami allows 6.7 yards per play, most in the NFL.
- Minnesota gains 42.7% of its total yardage via the run, the third-highest ratio.
- Detroit allows 32.3% of its total yardage via the run, the 13th-highest ratio.
Action Items
San Francisco's defense has been carrying the load, but the offense has a nice on-paper situation this week. Beware the let-down game, though.
Between Cincinnati's terrible run defense and the fact that they'll be without both starting cornerbacks this week, it's hard to say which part of Jacksonville's offense to like most. When in doubt, find the best player who's also seeing the most fantasy-friendly volume. That's Leonard Fournette. There's also some positive touchdown regression in play for Fournette (more on that later). Fournette has overall RB1 upside in season-long leagues and should be at the top of your list in any DFS format this week.
For season-long players, now is the time to buy Devin Singletary. Those who have him on their rosters may have forgotten about his since he last played in Week 2. But he's exactly the kind of player who could be a surprise fantasy factor going forward. And the Buffalo schedule is a cakewalk until late November.
Minnesota went away from the norm and decided to pass the ball in the last couple of weeks. This movement away from the run-first mentality against defenses that struggle to defend the pass suggests that the play-callers in Minnesota might know what they're doing. If that's the case, they'll go back to a ground-heavy approach this week.
Volume vs. Touchdowns
Touchdowns are the biggest factor in fantasy football scoring, but they're also the most unpredictable. Snaps, touches, and yards are more predictive of future value than touchdowns. Therefore, this section will look at players in the top-36 at wide receiver and running back and the top-24 at quarterback and examine what percentage of their fantasy points come from touchdowns.
The intent here is to identify players with positive touchdown regression forthcoming but also to look at the schedules going forward to determine "buy" candidates in season-long leagues.
Wide Receivers | |||||||
Player | Tgts | Tgt% | Rec | ReYd | TDs | PPR FPs | TD FP% |
Tyler Boyd | 59 | 24.8% | 40 | 415 | 1 | 87.9 | 6.8% |
D.J. Moore | 49 | 23.9% | 33 | 425 | 1 | 82.0 | 7.3% |
Odell Beckham | 54 | 27.7% | 29 | 436 | 1 | 78.9 | 7.6% |
Robert Woods | 51 | 20.9% | 32 | 357 | 1 | 78.4 | 7.7% |
John Brown | 39 | 23.5% | 28 | 390 | 1 | 73.4 | 8.2% |
Michael Gallup | 35 | 17.1% | 24 | 387 | 1 | 68.7 | 8.7% |
Brandin Cooks | 38 | 15.6% | 23 | 343 | 1 | 68.4 | 8.8% |
Julian Edelman | 55 | 24.8% | 38 | 449 | 2 | 97.1 | 12.4% |
DeAndre Hopkins | 57 | 28.4% | 40 | 402 | 2 | 92.2 | 13.0% |
Larry Fitzgerald | 52 | 22.9% | 35 | 427 | 2 | 89.7 | 13.4% |
Tgts = Targets
Tgt% = Percentage of team targets
Rec = Receptions
ReYd = Receiving Yards
TDs = Touchdowns
PPR FPs = PPR Fantasy Points
TD FP% = Percentage of PPR Fantasy Points via touchdowns
Commentary
Of the top-36 wide receivers, the table above shows the 10 with the lowest percentage of overall fantasy points via touchdowns. Below are the best "buy" candidates with their upcoming schedules. Blue represents a good matchup; red represents a difficult one.
- Robert Woods (at ATL, vs. CIN)
- John Brown (vs. MIA, vs. PHI, vs. WAS, at CLE, at MIA)
- Michael Gallup (vs. PHI, bye, at NYG)
- Larry Fitzgerald (at NYG, at NO, vs. SF, at TB)
Three of these players are on good/better-than-good offenses, and the other (Brown) is on an offense set to see a schedule-induced boost into the "good" category. Considering talent, offense, and schedule, it's hard to rank them.
From a Week 7 DFS perspective, they're ranked in order of priority for GPPs. Woods has two-touchdown potential; Brown has 100-yard bonus and touchdown potential; Gallup could be the WR1 if Cooper is out; and Fitzgerald is always solid and bound for touchdowns soon.
Running Backs | |||||||
Player | Rush | Tgts | RuYd | ReYd | TDs | PPR FPs | TD FP% |
Royce Freeman | 66 | 26 | 284 | 145 | 0 | 63.9 | 0.0% |
Leonard Fournette | 115 | 36 | 584 | 189 | 1 | 107.3 | 5.6% |
Miles Sanders | 57 | 18 | 199 | 219 | 1 | 58.8 | 10.2% |
Alvin Kamara | 86 | 39 | 373 | 276 | 2 | 110.4 | 10.9% |
Joe Mixon | 74 | 19 | 253 | 97 | 1 | 54.9 | 10.9% |
Jamaal Williams | 26 | 9 | 87 | 55 | 1 | 51.8 | 11.6% |
Duke Johnson Jr | 37 | 18 | 239 | 105 | 1 | 51.4 | 11.7% |
Saquon Barkley | 37 | 20 | 237 | 74 | 1 | 48.1 | 12.5% |
LeVeon Bell | 85 | 35 | 256 | 169 | 2 | 82.5 | 14.5% |
Marlon Mack | 101 | 9 | 470 | 42 | 2 | 72.2 | 16.6% |
Commentary
- LeVeon Bell (vs. NE, at JAX, at MIA, vs. NYG)
- Leonard Fournette (at CIN, vs. NYJ)
- Fournette has 115 carries, third-most in the NFL.
- Fournette has 36 targets, fifth-most among running backs.
- Fournette has 584 rushing yards, third-most.
- Fournette has one total touchdown, second-fewest among top-36 fantasy running backs.
- Alvin Kamara (at CHI, vs. ARI, bye, vs. ATL)
- Kamara has 39 targets, fourth-most among running backs.
- Kamara has 276 receiving yards, fourth-most among running backs.
- Royce Freeman (vs. KC, at IND)
- Marlon Mack (vs. HOU, vs. DEN, at PIT, vs. MIA)
Strength of schedule for running backs is harder to gauge than it is for quarterbacks and receivers because running back production is so dependent upon game script. So let volume be our guide and focus on the three-down studs here.
Because running back is such a thing position, they'll be hard to get via trade in season-long leagues. But your Week 7 DFS focus should be on these players - particularly Fournette considering his matchup.
Quarterbacks | |||||||
Player | Comp | Atts | PaYd | PaTD | RuTD | PPR FPs | TD FP% |
Kyler Murray | 153 | 238 | 1665 | 7 | 2 | 126.4 | 31.6% |
Aaron Rodgers | 113 | 180 | 1307 | 6 | 0 | 75.5 | 31.8% |
Marcus Mariota | 94 | 159 | 1180 | 7 | 0 | 84.1 | 33.3% |
Joe Flacco | 130 | 196 | 1435 | 6 | 0 | 70.5 | 34.0% |
Lamar Jackson | 127 | 195 | 1507 | 11 | 2 | 154.3 | 36.3% |
Commentary
- Kyler Murray (at NYG, at NO, vs. SF, at TB)
- Aaron Rodgers (vs. OAK, at KC, at LAC)
- Lamar Jackson (at SEA, bye, vs. NE, at CIN)
To the sharp fantasy manager, it might make sense that rushing quarterbacks appear in this exercise. After all, they have the differentiator of gaining fantasy points without passing but also without touchdowns. But despite that, Murray and Jackson don't quite fall into the same category.
Murray has thrown a touchdown on 2.9% of his passing attempts this season, while Jackson has thrown one on 5.6% of his attempts. So even if we disregard rushing stats, Murray is still set for positive regression in the passing touchdown department.
Rodgers is more of a DFS play than a traditional season-long buy-low. If you're wrong in DFS, you may lose for a week. But if you're wrong in season-long, you're stuck. And given the nature of the quarterback position, trading for them is usually not a sound move.
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) vs. raw DvP and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.
vs. Quarterbacks | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Dallas Cowboys | 24 | 6 | -18 |
Oakland Raiders | 27 | 20 | -7 |
Baltimore Ravens | 17 | 10 | -7 |
Washington Redskins | 29 | 23 | -6 |
Seattle Seahawks | 23 | 18 | -5 |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP
(the smaller/more negative the number, the worse the defense is relative to raw DvP)
Commentary and Action Items
Outside of Aaron Rodgers in Week 5, Dallas has faced the illustrious group of Eli Manning, Case Keenum, the Miami duo, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Darnold. It's no wonder they're a "top-six" team against quarterbacks. Don't be scared to start Carson Wentz this week.
Oakland and Washington are both bad from a raw standpoint and from a normalized perspective. Have we mentioned yet that Aaron Rodgers is primed for a huge week?
vs. Running Backs | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Buffalo Bills | 26 | 9 | -17 |
Baltimore Ravens | 26 | 13 | -13 |
Arizona Cardinals | 17 | 7 | -10 |
Indianapolis Colts | 16 | 9 | -7 |
Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 16 | -6 |
Commentary and Action Items
Baltimore's raw DvP numbers are inflated by schedule. They have faced Miami, an injured David Johnson, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. The only legitimate, healthy run game Baltimore has faced was Cleveland. That resulted in 165 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns from Nick Chubb. Don't be afraid of the Ravens, especially with a three-down offensive mainstay like Chris Carson. Carson is an RB1 in season-long leagues and a top-three value among running backs in DFS.
Now #Trending
In this section, we're comparing how teams have performed on a raw fantasy points against basis over the past three weeks vs. how they performed prior to that.
Atlanta vs. Quarterbacks
- From Weeks 1-3, Atlanta allowed 17.9 fantasy points per game, 14th-fewest in the NFL.
- From Weeks 4-6, Atlanta allowed 31.3 fantasy points per game, most in the NFL.
- Atlanta has allowed 33.7 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks in the last three weeks.
- Atlanta has allowed 11 passing touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Atlanta vs. Wide Receivers
- From Weeks 1-3, Atlanta allowed 32.7 fantasy points per game, ninth-fewest in the NFL.
- From Weeks 4-6, Atlanta allowed 54.4 fantasy points per game, second-most.
Commentary and Action Items
Jared Goff and the Rams are coming off a miserable game at home and heading to Atlanta for a road game. But he's still a QB1 in season-long leagues (among this week's Rent-a-Quarterbacks, only Josh Allen should be considered ahead of Goff). The shaky performance in Week 6 does limit him to GPP-only status in DFS.
Against receivers, Atlanta is even worse. In the good stretch, they faced a Philadelphia team that lost multiple receivers mid-game. And one-third of the bad stretch is a game against an anemic Tennessee offense in which Atlanta yielded two performances of 90+ yards. Tennessee has only had two other such occurrences all season.
Much like Goff, Cooper Kupp is due for a bounce-back game. Kupp has overall WR1 upside, and both Rams wideouts are WR1s. For DFS purposes, Kupp is safer in cash games, and Woods is a GPP candidate.
Pittsburgh vs. Quarterbacks
- From Weeks 1-3, Pittsburgh allowed 21.7 fantasy points per game, seventh-most in the NFL.
- From Weeks 4-6, Pittsburgh allowed 13.3 fantasy points per game, ninth-fewest.
One might think this change is schedule-driven. And Pittsburgh did face Tom Brady and Russell Wilson in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. But they have faced Lamar Jackson and Philip Rivers in the three-week stretch of improvement.
Pittsburgh's change could be due to its trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick. The defense has improved mightily. 14 of its 20 sacks have been in the three weeks. And only 35% of the team's total points allowed have come in the last three weeks.
Washington vs. RBs
- Washington allowed 111 yards and 1 touchdown to Ezekiel Elliott in Week 2, and they've still been markedly worse from Weeks 4-6 than Weeks 1-3.
- They haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher but have yielded 185.7 yards from scrimmage per game to a series of committees (NYG, NE, MIA), two of which were underwhelming.
Action Items
The "hangover" game is a real phenomenon in sports, but Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are members of a high-functioning offense in a great matchup. Both have RB2 potential this week.
The Weakest Links
This section will highlight the weakest defenses vs. each fantasy-relevant position. We won't have much commentary here because the intent should be obvious. These are the worst defenses, measured by NSoS, which makes them the prime defenses to target with each position. The best targets are the ones that are bad on both a raw and schedule-adjusted basis (hint: look for a lot of blue in the first two columns).
vs. Quarterbacks | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 29 | -3 |
Miami Dolphins | 31 | 31 | 0 |
Atlanta Falcons | 30 | 30 | 0 |
Washington Redskins | 29 | 23 | -6 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 26 | -2 |
Oakland Raiders | 27 | 20 | -7 |
Arizona Cardinals | 26 | 32 | 6 |
New York Giants | 25 | 27 | 2 |
Allen and Goff are compelling plays this week. Even Gardner Minshew makes for a sneaky GPP leverage play with many DFS players likely flocking to Fournette. Remember, Cincinnati will be missing both starting cornerbacks this week. And once again, we see Oakland here, steering us towards Rodgers.
vs. Running Backs | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Miami Dolphins | 32 | 31 | -1 |
Washington Redskins | 31 | 28 | -3 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | 27 | -3 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 29 | 32 | 3 |
Green Bay Packers | 28 | 29 | 1 |
Baltimore Ravens | 26 | 13 | -13 |
Buffalo Bills | 26 | 9 | -17 |
Dallas Cowboys | 25 | 23 | -2 |
Singletary, Fournette, and the San Francisco duo all stick out here. Additionally, Josh Jacobs has a good matchup at Green Bay. If the big game for Rodgers doesn't come to fruition, it's likely due to a combination of missing receivers and Oakland's run game playing ball control and limiting possessions. It was mentioned above, but Baltimore's appearance here shows that we shouldn't be afraid to play Carson in a home game for Seattle.
vs. Wide Receivers | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 30 | -2 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 31 | 0 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 30 | 32 | 2 |
Miami Dolphins | 29 | 24 | -5 |
Baltimore Ravens | 28 | 23 | -5 |
Oakland Raiders | 27 | 25 | -2 |
Cleveland Browns | 26 | 13 | -13 |
Washington Redskins | 25 | 28 | 3 |
In addition to the Rams duo and Gallup, don't forget about Tyler Lockett in GPPs. Baltimore acquired Marcus Peters this week, but he likely won't travel into the slot, where Lockett starts many of his big plays. Keep an eye on Dr. Jene Bramel's excellent injury blog, where as of Wednesday, he says "the Packers' top three receivers may not play this week."
Davante Adams (toe) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) look especially doubtful. Even if Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle) can go, there is still a void for targets that Allen Lazard could fill. Rodgers sung Lazard's praises mid-game in the form of politicking for more snaps for Lazard. And the rookie made Rodgers look good, with five catches (including a touchdown) in the fourth quarter.
Lazard is 6'5" and 227 pounds but ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash. His athleticism and opportunity make Lazard is a DFS GPP play at his minimum salary on DraftKings.
vs. Tight Ends | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 31 | -1 |
Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 32 | 1 |
Oakland Raiders | 30 | 25 | -5 |
Washington Redskins | 29 | 20 | -9 |
Seattle Seahawks | 28 | 28 | 0 |
Chicago Bears | 27 | 23 | -4 |
Dallas Cowboys | 25 | 24 | -1 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 25 | 27 | 2 |
If Evan Engram returns this week (Dr. Jene expects him to after full practice Wednesday), he does so in a dream spot against Arizona. You don't need this column to tell you to play George Kittle, but this week is as good as any due to the matchup at Washington. Mark Andrews filled in as Baltimore's de facto WR1 with marquise Brown out last week. Seattle offers another cushy spot for him.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com