Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
Funnel Watch
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
Pass Funnels
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 323.8 | 62.0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 318.3 | 59.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 84.3% | 15.7% |
Baltimore Ravens | 302.0 | 93.5 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
New York Jets | 286.7 | 88.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
"PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game
"RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game
"NYd/Att" = net yards per passing attempt; factors yards lost via sacks instead of raw yards per attempt
"PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
Commentary
This week's pass funnel defenses don't yield many action items because the offenses opposing them are either feeble (N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia), have a hard-to-trust quarterback (Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore), or are favored so heavily that it's hard to bet on the passing game (Philadelphia vs. N.Y. Jets). But it's worth noting the funnels for future weeks.
Reverse Funnels
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% |
Carolina Panthers | 156.8 | 130.8 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Green Bay Packers | 188.0 | 142.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
Denver Broncos | 200.0 | 149.3 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
Cleveland Browns | 215.3 | 119.8 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
"PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game
"RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game
"NYd/Att" = net yards per passing attempt; factors yards lost via sacks instead of raw yards per attempt
"PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
Commentary
- Carolina allows 156.8 passing yards per game, fewest in the NFL.
- Carolina allows 4.9 yards per rush, fifth-highest in the NFL.
- Carolina allows 45.5% of its total yardage via the rush, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Green Bay allows 43.1% of its total yardage via the rush, the second-highest ratio.
- Green Bay allows 5.0 yards per rush, fourth-highest in the NFL.
- Denver allows 149.3 rushing yards per game, third-highest in the NFL.
- Denver allows 5.1 yards per rush, third-highest in the NFL.
Action Items
If only Melvin Gordon hadn't come back, we'd have another obviously Austin Ekeler week. But the backfield split in Los Angeles will be hard to predict. In Dallas, though, we know the backfield split. And we know it's not really a split.
Even if Dallas chooses to pass more after too much run-game focus on Sunday night, a more open offense should provide more scoring opportunities for Ezekiel Elliott. While more than 20% of DFS GPP players flock to Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook at the high-end of the price range, consider Elliott as a GPP anchor and a cash game play in a bounce-back spot.
Leonard Fournette gets a great matchup this week, but a career day at Denver last week will drive up the number of rosters he's on. He's a GPP fade this week.
How Will They Score?
This is a concept created by Ben Gretch at Rotoviz and now published on FantasyLabs. And it's one I wanted to share as it is an interesting way to think about how teams score and allow points and can lead to some surprise/contrarian lineup decisions. For some background, see the bullet-point summary below.
- Take each team's implied Vegas team total
- Average the percentage of points that team scores via passing touchdowns and the percentage their opponent allows via passing touchdowns
- Multiply that average percentage by the implied total
- Do the same for rushing touchdowns
Note: Passing + Rushing won't add up to the entire team total. There are kicking and defense/special teams points as well. However, those aren't as predictable, so we're focusing on offense only.
Passing Points
Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off PaTD% | Def PaTD% | Proj. Pass |
Kansas City Chiefs | Indianapolis Colts | 33.50 | 44.4% | 52.9% | 16.31 |
Cincinnati Bengals | Arizona Cardinals | 25.75 | 52.6% | 52.2% | 13.49 |
Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs | 23.00 | 63.8% | 44.7% | 12.48 |
New England Patriots | Washington Redskins | 29.25 | 34.4% | 50.8% | 12.47 |
Philadelphia Eagles | New York Jets | 29.00 | 49.1% | 34.3% | 12.09 |
Houston Texans | Atlanta Falcons | 26.75 | 46.2% | 42.4% | 11.85 |
Atlanta Falcons | Houston Texans | 21.75 | 68.6% | 38.5% | 11.64 |
Commentary
- Cincinnati scores 52.6% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Arizona allows 52.2% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Houston is projected by oddsmakers to score 26.75 points this week, fourth-highest in the NFL.
- Atlanta scores 68.6% of its total points via passing touchdowns, the highest ratio.
Action Items
Any passing game is in play against Arizona due to the Cardinals' lack of talent and excess of tempo. Despite Monday night's terrible showing, this even includes Cincinnati. After all, Andy Dalton is better against non-common opponents and struggles in primetime games. This week's Rent-a-Quarterback discussed Arizona's poor showings this season:
"Only one quarterback has failed to meet at least 5x his (DraftKings) price, and that player leads a team with a strong run-first preference when they control games. So don't mistake Russell Wilson's poor fantasy performance for Arizona being better on defense."
Dalton will be selected more this week than a typical week for him, but quarterback roster percentages are typical level enough that they aren't as important as other positions. Dalton is a viable GPP play in DFS and, as mentioned in Rent-a-Quarterback, he's a high-upside waiver choice this week in season-long leagues.
Rushing Points
Offense | Defense | LV Total | Off RuTD% | Def RuTD% | Proj. Rush |
Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | 24.75 | 57.1% | 24.7% | 10.13 |
Dallas Cowboys | Green Bay Packers | 25.00 | 28.0% | 43.5% | 8.94 |
Philadelphia Eagles | New York Jets | 29.00 | 27.3% | 34.3% | 8.93 |
Houston Texans | Atlanta Falcons | 26.75 | 30.8% | 30.3% | 8.17 |
Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Rams | 25.00 | 29.1% | 28.8% | 7.25 |
Kansas City Chiefs | Indianapolis Colts | 33.50 | 22.2% | 17.6% | 6.68 |
Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | 25.50 | 20.0% | 32.3% | 6.66 |
Commentary
- Green Bay allows 43.5% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the highest ratio in the NFL.
Action Items
As mentioned above in the "Reverse Funnels" section, Green Bay is also poor in terms of rushing yards allowed (43.1%, second-highest ratio) and yards per attempt allowed (5.0, fourth-highest). Have we mentioned #ZekeWeek yet?
Looks Can Be Deceiving
Viewing raw "defense vs. position" (DvP) stats can be misleading, as it makes no consideration for the strength of opponents. So, in this section, we're going to compare our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) over the last five weeks vs. raw DvP for the entire season and find notable deltas between the two. The idea is to find defenses to target that other DFS players might not.
This week, we're mostly introducing this section, rather than providing action items. The main goal of this section is to examine the "delta" column to show teams that are worse than they appear. But this week is the first that NSoS has appeared on the site. With more weeks, more data will present itself and lead to larger gaps between raw DvP and NSoS.
Therefore, in future weeks, we won't list a position if the data doesn't suggest any strong plays.
vs. Quarterbacks | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32 | 26 | -6 |
Miami Dolphins | 31 | 32 | 1 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 30 | 29 | -1 |
New Orleans Saints | 29 | 31 | 2 |
Seattle Seahawks | 28 | 16 | -12 |
"NSoS" = Normalized Strength of Schedule Ranking
(see the link in the paragraph above for an explanation on NSoS)
"DvP" = Defense vs. Position Ranking
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = NSoS-DvP
Commentary and Action Items
For this week, we're sorting the tables by the worst NSoS teams. Seattle is notable here, as they appear to be average against quarterbacks when looking at raw DvP data, but the NSoS data suggests that they're much worse.
Allowing 112 yards and 2 touchdowns to Mason Rudolph in one half and 177 yards and 2 touchdowns to Teddy Bridgewater at home suggest this defense can be had against the right opponent. This week (L.A. Rams at Seattle on Thursday night) might not be the best spot, but Seattle is a target to keep in mind.
vs. Running Backs | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Denver Broncos | 32 | 27 | -5 |
Miami Dolphins | 30 | 31 | 1 |
Green Bay Packers | 30 | 30 | 0 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 29 | 32 | 3 |
Baltimore Ravens | 28 | 26 | -2 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 27 | 7 | -20 |
Commentary and Action Items
The first five teams are all poor vs. running backs. But the Chargers are a team that could be deceiving. They appear to be a difficult matchup, but they haven't faced a difficult schedule of backs so far. Denver platoons Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, but considering skill set and game script, Lindsay is the preferred play in this matchup.
vs. Wide Receivers | |||
Team | NSoS | DvP | Delta |
Washington Redskins | 32 | 31 | -1 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 31 | 32 | 1 |
Baltimore Ravens | 30 | 21 | -9 |
New York Jets | 29 | 30 | 1 |
Houston Texans | 28 | 26 | -2 |
Atlanta Falcons | 27 | 19 | -8 |
Commentary and Action Items
Both Baltimore and Atlanta are worse than they appear when considering the strength of their opponents so far. It's hard to trust Pittsburgh's passing game to facilitate a surprising day for any wide receiver. Therefore, Houston is the better choice among Baltimore and Atlanta opponents.
WR1s have performed well against Atlanta over the past three weeks, and those players haven't been quintessential WR1s. Corey Davis (5-91-1) and A.J. Brown (3-94-2); T.Y. Hilton (8-65-1); and Nelson Agholor - after injuries to Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson - (8-107-1) all had success against Atlanta. Imagine what DeAndre Hopkins can do.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
The speed at which teams play is an often-overlooked piece of fantasy analysis and projections. If teams play fast, they give their players more chances for production. Because offenses have more control over tempo than defenses, we'll look at the fastest offenses and the speed of the offenses they're facing this week.
Note: the pace rankings here are based on neutral situations, so end-game situations that would increase or decrease pace due to factors beyond a team's general preference have been excluded. All pace stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders.
Uptempo Offense | Pace Rank | Opposing Offense | Pace Rank |
Arizona Cardinals | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12 |
Los Angeles Rams | 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 |
San Francisco 49ers | 3 | Cleveland Browns | 28 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 29 |
Atlanta Falcons | 5 | Houston Texans | 13 |
Carolina Panthers | 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 |
Dallas Cowboys | 8 | Green Bay Packers | 16 |
Minnesota Vikings | 9 | New York Giants | 17 |
New England Patriots | 10 | Washington Redskins | 24 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | New York Jets | 25 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 1 |
Houston Texans | 13 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 |
Both columns show offensive tempo rankings.
Commentary and Action Items
Arizona at Cincinnati represents a matchup similar to Carolina at Arizona from Week 3. That game was in Arizona, and Kyle Allen - in his second NFL start - passed for four touchdowns. Dalton is a realistic play, but with John Ross placed on Injured Reserve, determining who to pair Dalton with is difficult.
Tyler Boyd is the obvious response, but Auden Tate is a legitimate secondary option. Tate's three red zone targets are second on the team, and his 6'5" frame suggests more could be on their way.
Ross was injured in the second half of Monday's game, so Tate's 89% and 91% snap rates in the last two weeks are hardly driven by Ross' injury. Tate is also averaging eight targets in the last two weeks and has produced 10 catches for 138 yards in his last two games. Because he won't be a sub-5% player like someone of his pedigree typically might be, Tate could enter "bad chalk" territory. But he shouldn't be a full fade due to the increased opportunity within his offense and yielded by his opponent.
Atlanta and Houston are both in the top-13 of neutral-script offensive pace, further suggesting that both passing games are in play.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com