Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Funnel Watch
- Follow the Targets
- The Weakest Links
- Showdown Slate Stuff
- Playcalling Preferences
- Going Deep
Funnel Watch
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 293.7 | 57.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
Baltimore Ravens | 290.3 | 60.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 82.8% | 17.2% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 261.0 | 69.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
Seattle Seahawks | 250.7 | 67.7 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
"NYd/Att" = net yards per passing attempt; factors yards lost via sacks instead of raw yards per attempt
"PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
The table above shows the teams that are easy to pass against, tough against the run, or both. The chart is sorted by the teams that allow the highest percentage of their total yards via the air.
The commentary below will serve as further assistance in reading this chart this week and in future weeks. In most weeks, this section will combine with the following section to determine how these teams allow passing production.
Commentary
- Philadelphia is allowing 293.7 passing yards per game, fourth-most in the NFL.
- Philadelphia allows 83.7% of its total yards via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Baltimore allows 82.8% of its total yards via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
- Baltimore allows 7.5 net yards per pass attempt, eighth-most.
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
As mentioned above, this section will focus on the teams that allow the most passing production. As a follow-up to "Funnel Watch," here are the four teams listed above.
RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||
Team | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | |||
Philadelphia Eagles | 20.3% | 26 | 0 | 61.9% | 26 | 6 | 17.8% | 14 | 1 | |||
Baltimore Ravens | 14.4% | 18 | 1 | 68.3% | 29 | 3 | 17.3% | 17 | 0 | |||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 15.2% | 3 | 0 | 59.8% | 17 | 2 | 25.0% | 31 | 1 | |||
Seattle Seahawks | 19.3% | 28 | 1 | 59.6% | 13 | 3 | 21.1% | 15 | 2 |
"Tgt %" = the percentage of overall targets faced allowed to that position
"YdsRk" = rank among NFL teams in yards allowed to that position
(32 means that team allows the most yardage; 1 means they allow the least)
Let's get into some commentary to help decipher the tables.
Commentary
- Philadelphia opponents target running backs on 20.4% of their pass attempts, the 14th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Philadelphia opponents gain 55.3 receiving yards per game via running backs, seventh-most.
- Philadelphia opponents gain 202.3 yards per game via wide receivers, seventh-most.
- Tampa Bay opponents gain 93.3 yards per game via tight ends, second-most.
Sometimes the stars align, and an offense targets its players the same way an opposing defense allows its production. For example:
Team | RB Tgt% | WR Tgt% | TE Tgt% | RB Rec% | WR Rec% | TE Rec% | RB Yd% | WR Yd% | TE Yd% |
Cleveland Browns | 21.1% | 60.6% | 11.9% | 27.4% | 61.3% | 11.3% | 22.1% | 81.2% | 7.9% |
Baltimore Ravens | 14.4% | 68.3% | 17.3% | 20.9% | 61.2% | 17.9% | 12.7% | 71.1% | 16.2% |
- Baltimore opponents target running backs on 14.4% of their pass attempts, the sixth-lowest ratio.
- Baltimore opponents gain 216.3 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Cleveland gains 196.0 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Baltimore opponents gain 71.1% of their yardage via wide receivers, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Cleveland gains 81.2% of its yardage via wide receivers, the fourth-highest ratio.
Action Items
With Jimmy Smith ailing and slot corner Tavon Young injured during the preseason and out for the year, Baltimore has yielded big games to opposing WR1s and slot receivers alike. Fellow cornerback Marlon Humphrey is also on the injury report this week.
Don't do anything silly like benching Odell Beckham. While the stats say Jarvis Landry has started slow, 99% of the team's snaps and 9 targets last week suggest production could be coming soon. At a projected 0.4% rostered in DraftKings tournaments, Landry makes for an interesting GPP candidate.
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
QBs who have faced the Cardinals so far this year:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 23, 2019
Week 1: Matthew Stafford 31.6 DK points at $5400
Week 2: Lamar Jackson 33.9 DK points at $6700
Week 3: Kyle Allen 25.3 DK points at $4000
Commentary
It's worth mentioning what the tight ends and receivers have done against Arizona as well. Let's look at another "passing production table" for this week's matchup:
Team | RB Tgt% | WR Tgt% | TE Tgt% | RB Rec% | WR Rec% | TE Rec% | RB Yd% | WR Yd% | TE Yd% |
Seattle Seahawks | 19.0% | 58.1% | 18.1% | 25.3% | 53.3% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 74.5% | 19.3% |
Arizona Cardinals | 14.1% | 55.6% | 30.3% | 17.6% | 48.5% | 33.8% | 12.5% | 49.2% | 38.2% |
To tight ends, Arizona is allowing the third-highest ratio of targets, third-highest ratio of receptions, and highest ratio of yardage.
Action Items
Will Dissly is averaging 5.5 catches, 56 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns on 6 targets in his last two games, and Seattle just traded backup Nick Vannett to Pittsburgh. That plus the matchup makes him the "punt" tight end du jour. Dissly is a top-10 option in season-long leagues this week.
Showdown Slate Stuff
Here are a couple of tidbits related to the primetime games this week that could be useful in determining which players to use in Showdown Slates.
Zeke's Role Change
Zeke was targeted every 4.5 routes run in ’18, finishing with career-highs in targets (6.3) and routes (27.4) per game. He’s merely averaged 2.3 targets on 19.7 routes through Week 3.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 23, 2019
We're not here to tell you that Ezekiel Elliott is a bad play (especially in a one-game slate), but this could be a reason to fade him as the "Captain."
New Orleans Defense
Early in 2019, the Saints are back to their old ways of allowing production to quarterbacks at an alarming rate.
- New Orleans allows 32.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most in the NFL.
- New Orleans allows 11.0 rushing fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, also most in the league. No other team allows more than 4.9.
- New Orleans allows 319.0 passing yards per game, second-most.
- Dak Prescott has 88 rushing yards on the season, eighth-most.
- New Orleans allows 19.4 fantasy points per game to running backs, the sixth-fewest.
Dallas has placed an emphasis on downfield passing under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Expect them to continue that this week, especially considering the opponent.
A New Steelers Passing Game
Pittsburgh is undergoing a youth movement on offense. After Donte Moncrief's horrific start to the season, he was a healthy scratch in Week 3. That opened the door for rookie Diontae Johnson.
#Steelers Week 3 WR snaps:
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 23, 2019
JuJu Smith-Schuster - 100%
James Washington - 92%
Diontae Johnson - 79%
Johnson and James Washington could be cheap contrarian "Captain" candidates. And both have big-play capabilities.
Defensive Notes
Cincinnati passes on 78.0% of its neutral-script plays, the highest ratio in the NFL. As discussed in "Playcalling Preferences" last week, frequent passing can be good for our fantasy football Defense/Special Teams positions. Don't overlook Pittsburgh at home.
Neither team gets to the red zone frequently. Cincinnati has just eight trips, tied for 10th-fewest, while Pittsburgh has only six trips, fourth-fewest. Cincinnati has scored a touchdown on 37.5% of those trips, fourth-worst rate in the NFL. Pittsburgh has scored on only 50% of its trips, tied for the eighth-worst rate.
Playcalling Preferences
In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.
Passing
Offensive Team | Pass% | Defensive Team | Pass% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 78.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 56.8% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 76.3% | Detroit Lions | 51.6% |
Dallas Cowboys | 66.7% | New Orleans Saints | 60.0% |
Carolina Panthers | 65.3% | Houston Texans | 62.5% |
Oakland Raiders | 64.9% | Indianapolis Colts | 55.2% |
Chicago Bears | 64.5% | Minnesota Vikings | 56.7% |
Atlanta Falcons | 64.1% | Tennessee Titans | 50.9% |
Washington Redskins | 63.8% | New York Giants | 58.5% |
Cleveland Browns | 63.8% | Baltimore Ravens | 73.5% |
Commentary
- Carolina calls a pass on 65.3% of its neutral-script plays, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Houston faces a pass on 62.5% of its neutral-script plays, the 11th-highest ratio.
- Cleveland calls a pass on 63.8% of its neutral-script plays, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Baltimore faces a pass on 73.5% of its neutral-script plays, the second-highest ratio.
Action Items
Kyle Allen made DFS players and Rent-a-Quarterback fans proud last week with his effort against Arizona. He's viable again this week facing a Houston team that plays fast and allows plenty of production via the air. Bonus commentary: Carolina is the ninth-fastest neutral-script team, and Houston is the tenth-fastest.
Once again, we can see a path to passing game volume for Cleveland. It's worth noting here that Landry only trails Beckham by 11 air yards on the season and leads Cleveland in average depth of target with an aDOT of 13.0 to Beckham's 10.3. Those figures exclude Cleveland receivers with fewer than 10 targets.
Going Deep
In this section, we'll examine teams that throw deep passes at a high rate vs. the defenses they are playing against this week. This section defines a deep pass attempt as an attempt of 15 or more air yards.
Offensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% | Defensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% |
Baltimore Ravens | 10.7 | 30.2% | Cleveland Browns | 5.7 | 18.3% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 10.7 | 27.8% | Detroit Lions | 10.0 | 23.8% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9.0 | 27.6% | Los Angeles Rams | 3.0 | 8.3% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 10.3 | 26.7% | Miami Dolphins | 7.0 | 24.4% |
Miami Dolphins | 9.7 | 25.9% | Los Angeles Chargers | 5.3 | 17.6% |
Detroit Lions | 9.0 | 25.2% | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.0 | 23.7% |
Houston Texans | 7.3 | 23.7% | Carolina Panthers | 6.7 | 18.7% |
Dallas Cowboys | 7.0 | 22.3% | New Orleans Saints | 7.3 | 20.4% |
"Att./Gm." = the number of passes 15 yards or more downfield attempted by an offense or faced by a defense
"Deep%" = the percentage of overall passes that are 15 or more yards downfield thrown by an offense or faced by a defense
Commentary
It's always fun seeing two teams that face other both high on the offensive and defensive deep ball rankings.
- Kansas City (second-highest ratio) and Detroit (sixth-highest) are both among the top teams in percentage of deep balls attempted.
- Kansas City (eighth-highest ratio) and Detroit (seventh-highest) are also among the top teams in percentage of deep balls faced.
- The same can be said of Miami (fifth-highest) and Dallas (eighth-highest) offensively, while Miami also faces the fifth-highest ratio of deep passes defensively.
Action Items
After a total stinker last week, Kenny Golladay is back in play this week. He leads Detroit in air yards by 100 over Marvin Jones. He'll be chalky in DFS, and should be on the fringe of WR1 territory in season-long leagues.
Demarcus Robinson (17.6) and Mecole Hardman (14.2) are the head-and-shoulders leaders in average depth of target for Kansas City. Both make for solid DFS GPP plays, as they shouldn't appear on too many rosters and have the potential to make your day with one catch.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com