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Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams or players.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
Looks Can Be Deceiving
In later installments of this section, we'll examine our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) metric against raw Defense vs. Position (DvP) stats. But since NSoS doesn't debut until Week 5, let's find some other early-season trends that can be deceiving.
The idea is to examine teams significantly better or worse in 2019 than they were in 2018 and see if those drastic changes are exploitable going forward ("real") or if they're mostly due to small sample size ("noise").
Team | 2018 | 2019 | Delta |
Arizona vs. QBs | 5 | 31 | -26 |
Tampa Bay vs. QBs | 30 | 5 | 25 |
Atlanta vs. RBs | 29 | 15 | 14 |
Pittsburgh vs. RBs | 8 | 26 | -18 |
Green Bay vs. WRs | 28 | 4 | 24 |
Jacksonville vs. WRs | 1 | 18 | -17 |
Baltimore vs. WRs | 6 | 20 | -14 |
Atlanta vs. WRs | 27 | 7 | 20 |
N.Y. Giants vs. WRs | 9 | 30 | -21 |
Rankings shown in 2018 and 2019 columns are DvP
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = ranking decline or improvement from 2018 to 2019
Arizona vs. QBs - REAL
Some of Arizona's production can be attributed to Lamar Jackson's legs. But the Cardinals are allowing 25.7 passing fantasy points per game, fourth-most in the NFL. The suspended Patrick Peterson hasn't helped matters. While Peterson will return eventually, Arizona's increased offensive pace should continue to lead to opponent production.
This Week: Cam Newton is likely out, which means he misses out on a "get-right" opportunity. But Kyle Allen is now a starter with a next-to-free price tag in DFS. Allen's lone regular-season experience as a starter was in Week 17 last season. He passed for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns and added a rushing touchdown. That yielded a QB8 finish, albeit in a week where many high-end players rested.
Allen should be on your radar - even in cash games - in a pace-up situation against a poor secondary. The lineup that can be made with Allen plugged in at quarterback is drool-worthy.
Tampa Bay vs. QBs - REAL
Todd Bowles has Tampa's defense looking like a polar opposite of the unit that was laughably bad last season. Tampa Bay has yielded only one passing touchdown. Don't expect them to be a top-five squad vs. quarterbacks all season, but they shouldn't fall to the bottom again.
Don't get cute and think about playing Daniel Jones in his debut - especially at DraftKings, where he's priced up from the minimum and is $1,000 more than Allen.
Atlanta vs. RBs - NOISY
Atlanta is allowing 3.7 yards per rush, eighth-lowest in the NFL, and they're one of 11 teams to allow 8 or fewer receptions to running backs. However, Atlanta is still a team to target for receiving backs. They faced only 10 pass attempts in Week 1. And in Week 2, they faced a Philadelphia team that targeted its running backs at the eighth-lowest rate in the league last season.
This Week: Marlon Mack's usage is head-and-shoulders above that of Nyheim Hines.
Week 1 | Week 2 | Overall | |||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | Snap % | Rush % | Tgt % | ||||
Marlon Mack | 76.2% | 86.2% | 0.0% | 68.1% | 74.1% | 7.7% | 71.9% | 80.4% | 3.8% | ||||
Nyheim Hines | 27.0% | 13.8% | 14.8% | 19.4% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 23.0% | 10.7% | 13.2% | ||||
Team Total | 63 | 29 | 27 | 72 | 27 | 26 | 135 | 56 | 53 |
Mack is a GPP candidate in DFS and should confidently be deployed as an RB2 - bordering on RB1 - in season-long leagues.
Post-publish update: Mack missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, so keep an eye on his status. If Mack is out, Jordan Wilkins would likely lead the backfield in carries, but Hines would probably cut into the usage more than he does with Mack healthy.
Pittsburgh vs. RBs - REAL
In 2018, the Steelers were stout against opposing backs, but they've started 2019 terribly. And the production is coming in all ways. Pittsburgh is yielding 8.5 receptions per game to running backs, second-most in the NFL. And they're allowing 27.5 rushing attempts per game to running backs, third-most. The game scripts are only going to get worse with Mason Rudolph quarterbacking the offense for the rest of the year.
This Week: San Francisco's committee gets the next crack at a Pittsburgh defense that just bolstered its secondary with Minkah Fitzpatrick. But the ground game (and passing to the backs) shouldn't be hindered. Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are splitting the duties, making neither a cash game play. But Breida is a GPP play, given the fact that he's capable of this:
(•_•)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 18, 2019
<) )╯MATT
/ \
\(•_•)
( (> BREIDA
/ \
(•_•)
<) )> IS A BEAST
/ \ pic.twitter.com/PQvh1kFpJO
Green Bay vs. WRs - NOISY
This is purely strength-of-schedule driven. Green Bay has faced a pass-inept opponent in Chicago and a pass-averse opponent in Minnesota.
This Week: Despite Joe Flacco being their quarterback and the offense only averaging 15 points per game, both Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders have carved out a role.
Week 1 | Week 2 | Overall | |||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | Snap % | Tgt % | Yds % | ||||
Emmanuel Sanders | 89.1% | 23.3% | 32.1% | 92.7% | 26.0% | 33.6% | 91.1% | 25.0% | 32.9% | ||||
Courtland Sutton | 89.1% | 26.7% | 44.8% | 95.1% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 92.5% | 18.8% | 28.6% | ||||
DaeSean Hamilton | 76.6% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 65.9% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 70.5% | 12.5% | 1.8% | ||||
Team Total | 64 | 30 | 268 | 82 | 50 | 292 | 146 | 80 | 560 |
Sutton's reduced Week 2 usage could be a product of Chicago's smothering defense. He looked the part of a true WR1 in Week 1.
Jacksonville vs. WRs - NOISY
Until and unless they trade Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville will be among the tougher matchups. So far this season, they've regressed to a middling unit. But playing against Patrick Mahomes II, Deshaun Watson, and their respective crews of pass-catchers will artificially inflate a team's fantasy points allowed.
Baltimore vs. WRs - To Be Determined
Slot corner Tavon Young was lost for the year in the preseason, and Jimmy Smith left early in Week 1 and missed Week 2. Smith will be back, which should help the secondary. But this year's offense is high-octane enough to yield increased tempo and additional volume for its opponents.
This Week: Baltimore visits Kansas City in a game with "Game of the Year" potential. Sammy Watkins took a back seat to youngsters Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman in Week 2 but only in terms of actual production.
Week 1 | Week 2 | Overall | |||||||||||
Player | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | Snap % | Tgt % | AirYd% | ||||
Sammy Watkins | 95.6% | 32.4% | 56.3% | 92.1% | 29.5% | 25.3% | 93.8% | 30.8% | 32.8% | ||||
Mecole Hardman | 82.4% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 73.7% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 77.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | ||||
Demarcus Robinson | 63.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 90.8% | 13.6% | 27.7% | 77.8% | 10.3% | 21.8% | ||||
Team Total | 68 | 34 | 176 | 76 | 44 | 549 | 144 | 78 | 725 |
The overall numbers are skewed due to Robinson and Hardman only playing part of the game in Week 1, but the Week 2 numbers show each player at a near-full time clip.
Watkins saw more targets (13) than the other duo combined (12) and saw nearly as many air yards as Robinson. This tells us that the difference wasn't that Mahomes stopped looking Watkins' way but that his deep balls missed while the targeted for Robinson and Hardman connected.
Watkins is a solid GPP pivot away from Keenan Allen, who comes in at a similar price but is likely to show up on more rosters.
N.Y. Giants vs. WRs - REAL
The Giants are allowing 275 yards per game to wide receivers, most in the NFL by more than 25 yards (10%) over the second-worst team. This is despite play Buffalo and its understandably unheralded passing game last week.
Mike Evans supporters are begging for a big game, and they should get it this week. Though not a wide receiver by position, O.J. Howard could exploit this matchup as well. The Giants have allowed 4-69-1 to Randall Cobb and 4-83-0 to Cole Beasley. Howard can make plays in the same parts of the field, and Tampa doesn't have a true slot receiver. There's also some "squeaky wheel" #NarrativeStreet in play. At $100 more than Greg Olsen (who many will tout because of his matchup), Howard is a high-ceiling (but low-floor) GPP play.
Playcalling Preferences
In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.
Passing
Offensive Team | Pass% | Defensive Team | Pass% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 80.9% | Buffalo Bills | 64.1% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 76.9% | Baltimore Ravens | 72.7% |
New York Jets | 74.2% | New England Patriots | 50.0% |
Carolina Panthers | 71.4% | Arizona Cardinals | 56.9% |
Cleveland Browns | 69.7% | Los Angeles Rams | 56.1% |
Commentary
- Cincinnati calls a pass on 80.9% of its neutral-script plays, the highest rate in the NFL.
- Buffalo faces a pass on 64.1% of its neutral-script plays, the 11th-highest rate.
- It's not entirely small sample size, as Cincinnati has run 47 neutral-script plays, 12th-most.
- Last season, Pittsburgh called a pass on 74.2% of its plays, the highest rate.
- Kansas City calls a pass on 76.9% of its neutral-script plays, the second-highest rate.
- Baltimore faces a pass on 72.7% of its neutral-script plays, the fourth-highest rate.
Action Items
We rarely recommend the Defense/Special Teams position here, but Buffalo is a sleeper pick this week. We want our fantasy defenses facing an excess of passing situations. After all, that's how sacks are made, interceptions are forced, and the two-for-one known as the strip-sack can occur. Typically, we look for home favorites so the game script forced the opponent to pass more, but Cincinnati throws enough to target them regardless of script.
Do you need any more reason to target the Baltimore-Kansas City aerial attacks? On last week's Power Grid episode, Devin Knotts said his strategy in cash games was this:
"start Patrick Mahomes II in cash every single week of the year until they price him significantly higher"
Last week, Mahomes was $800 above the QB2 and $1,700 above the QB12. This week, he's $600 above the QB2 and $1,700 above the QB12. Imagine living in a world where you'll "figure it out" with committee RB types because there's a head-and-shoulders-above-the-rest player you need to plug into your QB spot. Mahomes in cash: definitely still a thing.
Rushing
Offensive Team | Rush% | Defensive Team | Rush% |
Indianapolis Colts | 59.0% | Atlanta Falcons | 33.3% |
San Francisco 49ers | 57.5% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.6% |
Minnesota Vikings | 55.6% | Oakland Raiders | 26.1% |
New England Patriots | 54.8% | New York Jets | 26.1% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 48.9% | New York Giants | 36.0% |
Commentary
- Indianapolis calls a run on 59.0% of its neutral-script plays, the highest rate in the NFL.
- San Francisco calls a run on 57.5% of its neutral-script plays, the second-highest rate.
- San Francisco averages 2.59 points per drive, fifth-most.
- Pittsburgh faces a run on 42.6% of its neutral-script plays, the 13th-highest rate.
- New England calls a run on 54.8% of its neutral-script plays, the fourth-highest rate.
Action Items
Expect Indianapolis to continue to be run-focused this week. In case you skipped the section above, that's great news for Marlon Mack. Also mentioned in the section above was Matt Breida. His touches and yardage should continue, which means that a touchdown (or two) in the mix would elevate him to a high-end RB1 week.
New England's cupcake schedule continues as they host the Jets and their third-string quarterback. All three Patriots backs are once again in play but only as GPP options needing multiple touchdowns to pay off.
Going Deep
In this section, we'll examine teams that throw deep passes at a high rate vs. the defenses they are playing against this week. This section defines a deep pass attempt as an attempt of 15 or more air yards.
Offensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% | Defensive Team | Att./Gm. | Deep% |
Miami Dolphins | 10.5 | 29.6% | Dallas Cowboys | 5.5 | 12.9% |
Houston Texans | 8.5 | 28.8% | Los Angeles Chargers | 5.5 | 19.3% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 11.0 | 28.2% | Baltimore Ravens | 9.0 | 25.0% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 9.0 | 25.7% | Houston Texans | 4.5 | 11.8% |
Detroit Lions | 9.5 | 25.3% | Philadelphia Eagles | 8.5 | 19.5% |
Baltimore Ravens | 7.5 | 23.8% | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.5 | 15.5% |
Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 23.4% | Denver Broncos | 4.5 | 17.0% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.0 | 23.0% | New York Giants | 5.0 | 16.1% |
Arizona Cardinals | 10.5 | 22.3% | Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | 20.3% |
This table is sorted by the "Deep%" column and shows the nine teams who throw deep the most as a percentage of their total attempts.
"Att./Gm." = the number of passes 15 yards or more downfield attempted by an offense or faced by a defense
"Deep%" = the percentage of overall passes that are 15 or more yards downfield thrown by an offense or faced by a defense
Commentary
- Kansas City throws a deep pass on 28.2% of its attempts, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
- Baltimore faces a deep pass on 25.0% of attempts they face, the fifth-highest rate.
- Kansas City attempts 11 deep passes per game, most in the NFL.
- Baltimore faces 9 deep passes per game, fifth-most.
- Arizona attempts 10.5 deep passes per game, tied for second-most in the NFL.
Action Items
Once again, we discuss Baltimore at Kansas City. We likely didn't need numbers to be convinced that the Chiefs will continue firing deep, but Baltimore's opponents thus far have suggested that approach is a sound one against the Ravens. Here is the average depth-of-target (aDOT) for Kansas City's pass catchers:
- Sammy Watkins (both weeks) - 9.9 yards
- Travis Kelce (both weeks) - 9.9 yards
- Mecole Hardman (Week 2 only) - 13.7 yards
- Demarcus Robinson (Week 2 only) - 25.3 yards
With this week looking like a "pay-down" week at tight end, Kelce can assist with a contrarian GPP lineup build. His aDOT isn't technically a "deep pass," but he's certainly capable of getting downfield and making plays.
Their deep ball percentage looks low, but Arizona loves to throw deep. Their league-leading number of overall attempts holds down the deep ratio. Eventually, Kyler Murray's attempts and yardage will lead to more touchdowns. Here are his receivers by aDOT:
- Larry Fitzgerald: 11.4 yards
- Christian Kirk: 10.2 yards
- KeeSean Johnson: 13.2 yards
- Damiere Byrd: 7.6 yards
- David Johnson: 5.0 yards (ranks 5th among running backs with 5 or more targets)
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
The speed at which teams play is an often-overlooked piece of fantasy analysis and projections. If teams play fast, they give their players more chances for production. Because offenses have more control over tempo than defenses, we'll look at the fastest offenses and the speed of the offenses they're facing this week.
Note: the pace rankings here are based on neutral situations, so end-game situations that would increase or decrease pace due to factors beyond a team's general preference have been excluded. All pace stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders.
Uptempo Offense | Pace Rank | Opposing Offense | Pace Rank |
Los Angeles Rams | 1 | Cleveland Browns | 16 |
Arizona Cardinals | 2 | Carolina Panthers | 6 |
San Francisco 49ers | 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 |
New York Giants | 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18 |
Atlanta Falcons | 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 28 |
Carolina Panthers | 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 2 |
Minnesota Vikings | 7 | Oakland Raiders | 22 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 13 |
Houston Texans | 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | 31 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | Detroit Lions | 21 |
Both columns show offensive tempo rankings.
Commentary and Action Items
Arizona and Carolina appear once again (Cam Newton, where art thou?). Don't be afraid of Christian McCaffrey just because Newton is out. As of this writing, McCaffrey is still projected as the highest-scoring back on the main slate.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com