For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LIMIT YOUR CASH GAME PLAY: [Adapted from "Tips and Picks' from 2019 Wild-Card Weekend] Over the past few seasons, cash games have gotten increasingly difficult to beat over the long-term. That trend can be blamed squarely on the availability of good information that was previously not readily available. Today, however, there are an abundance of data, tools, and articles on various websites that make constructing cash game lineups a straightforward endeavor. Like last year around this time, I am urging you to limit the amount of cash game action that you put into play because the overlap that occurs on smaller game sets, like Wild-Card Weekend, is absurd; Drew Brees, Devin Singletary, and Michael Thomas are all going to be extremely highly-owned on this four game slate. As a result of this massive ownership overlap, the difference between winning and losing will often distill down to one or two players’ performance(s), which is less than optimal because of the variance associated with NFL scoring. The edge associated with playing DFS is far less defined on a shorter slate because there are less mistakes that can be made. With this in mind, I would encourage you to play less volume than you typically play on an NFL slate and also direct you to play a bit more of your cash game action in head-to-head contests, where you are not likely facing an all-or-nothing outcome.
GAMESCRIPTING: Because there are only four games from which to choose, my best advice this (and next) week is to mentally determine how you envision the games playing out and building your rosters accordingly. For example, I like the Bills to go on the road and upset the Texans on Saturday because of how their key personnel match up against one another. The Bills secondary, featuring shutdown cornerback TreDavious White, is one of the best in the league; teams that have performed well against Buffalo have primarily bested them via the run, which will be difficult for the Texans, whose feature running back (Carlos Hyde) has surpassed 75 rushing yards only once since their Week #10 bye. With the All-World DeAndre Hopkins dealing with shadow coverage from the aforementioned White, I don't trust Watson to get the job done with Kenny Stills while Will Fuller (groin) is expected to miss yet another game. Of all of which is to say that I will be overweight on Bills' offensive players and fading many of the Texans' skill players, particularly in the passing game. When the smoke clears, that gamescript may or may not be realized, but to win a GPP this Wild-Card Weekend, you will need to be correct on those gamescripts more often than not due to the extreme overlap in ownership on a limited slate.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Carson Wentz | SEA | $6,200 | 11% | - | «««« | Cheap receivers and underdog role feels like déjà vu. |
Josh Allen | @HOU | $6,500 | 10% | - | ««« | Multiple TDs in 87% of games this season. |
Tom Brady | TEN | $5,800 | 9% | Yes | ««« | Too cheap for matchup vs. untested TEN secondary. |
Drew Brees | MIN | $6,600 | 21% | Yes | «« | Easy call, but game strategy dictates slight fade. |
Russell Wilson | @PHL | $6,800 | 17% | - | «« | Seahawks cannot win this one on Marshawn/Homer's legs. |
Kirk Cousins | @NO | $6,100 | 6% | - | « | Needs a Saints' blowout to be viable for GPP contests. |
QB OVERVIEW: In cash games, the safest play is probably paying the premium for Drew Brees and building around him at other positions. Brees has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all-but-one home game this season, a reality that has led to an average of 27.7 DK points per game, nearly 4x this week's salary. The matchup against the Vikings is as soft as they come this time of the year; Minnesota's defense has allowed nearly 3/4 of their touchdowns via the pass, which is worst in the NFL. If you cannot afford Brees' salary, Tom Brady is the discounted cash game (and GPP) option against a Titans secondary that is without its best cornerback (Malcolm Butler) and has allowed 18+ DK points to 10 consecutive quarterbacks not named Nick Foles or Kyle Allen. Brady has been far from his former self this season, but we should trust that Bill Belichick will be prepared to outclass Mike Vrabel in Foxborough in January. For tournament purposes, Carson Wentz tops the list for the second consecutive week, primarily because of how cheaply his receivers are priced. Since Thanksgiving, Wentz has chucked the ball 40+ times in every game and is averaging 300+ yards over that span, volume that could potentially continue with Miles Sanders and Boston Scott performing so well as receivers. The knock on Wentz is that the Eagles could be without two key linemen, Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson, but Friday's injury report lists the latter as questionable, which should mean that he will be on the field on Sunday. For their part, the Seahawks get virtually zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which should lessen fear about the Birds' offensive line injuries. Elsewhere, Josh Allen is an intriguing GPP option against the Texans that could go overlooked by the masses. Allen has not thrown for 300+ yards all season, but he brings upside to your rosters via his wheels--he has scored a rushing touchdown in 8 out of 15 *starts this season (*not counting Week #16 where he played only 7 snaps). Lastly, Russell Wilson is in play, despite his slate-high pricetag, because Travis Homer and an aged Marshawn Lynch are not going to be able to be productive against the Eagles' 4th-ranked (DVOA) rush defense; instead, the rush-happy Pete Carroll should be forced to throw the ball against their susceptible secondary.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Alvin Kamara | MIN | $7,400 | 55% | Yes | «««« | Touchdown drought is over--4 TDs over past 2 games. |
Devin Singletary | @HOU | $6,000 | 48% | Yes | «««« | Banking on the Bills upset win and heavy usage. |
James White | TEN | $5,700 | 14% | - | ««« | TEN: Bottom-5 in defending against pass-catching RBs. |
Dalvin Cook | @NO | $7,800 | 42% | - | «« | Fresh legs and run-first team = upside for GPPs. |
Duke Johnson Jr | BUF | $4,400 | 4% | - | «« | See notes on Singletary (above). More snaps if losing. |
Carlos Hyde | BUF | $5,100 | 15% | - | «« | Upgrade Hyde if you think that Houston handles Buffalo. |
Travis Homer | @PHL | $5,300 | 9% | - | «« | Preferred Seattle RB, but matchup vs. PHL is ominous. |
Sony Michel | TEN | $4,600 | 10% | - | « | Uptick in usage of late. Historically strong in January. |
Rex Burkhead | TEN | $4,500 | 1% | - | « | GPP differentiator. Stealing looks from White/Michel. |
Miles Sanders | SEA | $6,200 | 31% | - | « | Will Boston Scott's success = less touches for Sanders? |
Derrick Henry | @NE | $8,100 | 13% | - | « | Afraid that he will be scripted out of game by halftime. |
RB OVERVIEW: For reasons that we will discuss in the next section, you will want to get as much Michael Thomas as you can reasonably fit into your rosters this weekend. At $9.3K, however, Thomas necessitates saving salary at other positions, which dictates that you may have to get away from Derrick Henry ($8.1K) and/or Dalvin Cook ($7.8K) at the running back position. The good news is that Henry could be scripted out of the game if the Patriots jump to an early lead because the big back is rarely involved as a receiver (only 18 receptions in the regular season) and Dalvin Cook would be more attractive as a 9-point favorite than a 9-point underdog against the Saints. That leaves Alvin Kamara and Devin Singletary as volume-based running back options with reasonable salaries. Kamara is heating up heading into the playoffs, having scored four touchdowns over the Saints' final pair of regular-season games. He gave way to Latavius Murray last week after the game against Carolina was out of hand, but we should expect to see Kamara field ~ 70% of New Orleans' offensive snaps and garner 18+ touches against a Vikings' defensive front that has sprung leaks to Aaron Jones (23/154/2) and David Montgomery (23/113/1) over their previous two games. In Houston, Devin Singletary will bring fresh legs to NRG Stadium after sitting out a meaningless Week #17 game against the Jets. Prior to that game, Singletary accrued 16 or more touches in 6 consecutive games and out-touched stablemate, Frank Gore, 117 to 51; that said, Singletary will need to score from a distance, as Sean McDermott appears to be convinced the Gore has a better nose for the endzone, as evidenced by his commitment to the veteran in those situations. Nonetheless, Singletary is one of the safer cash game plays on this limited slate at the running back position. In tournaments, feel free to saddle up with any of the Patriots' running backs, as each brings something different to your lineups. Sony Michel will probably go underowned (again) despite averaging 20 touches over his previous 3 games; meanwhile, James White has demonstrated upside in the past against teams that cannot defend pass-catching running backs well, which is a weakness for the Titans (third-most receptions per game allowed to the running back position). Lastly, Rex Burkhead cannot be ignored given his sub-5% ownership and recent Swiss-Army-Knife usage; he could easily collect 80+ all-purpose yards and a score against the Titans at a fair $4.5K salary to deliver GPP value.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Michael Thomas | MIN | $9,300 | 56% | Yes | «««« | Not sure how the Vikings can slow down MT in this spot. |
Corey Davis | @NE | $3,800 | 11% | Yes | «««« | Expect Belichick to focus on A.J. Brown, not Davis. |
Julian Edelman | TEN | $6,500 | 31% | - | «««« | Hobbled star will rise to the occasion. Expect more now. |
Greg Ward | SEA | $5,200 | 20% | - | ««« | Price is creeping but only other viable targets are TEs. |
John Brown | @HOU | $6,000 | 24% | - | ««« | Speedster can easily get behind this slow HOU secondary. |
Cole Beasley | @HOU | $5,600 | 24% | - | ««« | "Possession" receiver had 2x 100-yard games in December. |
DeAndre Hopkins | BUF | $7,700 | 36% | - | «« | High price and White shadow = fading the field in GPPs. |
Mohamed Sanu | TEN | $3,900 | 17% | Yes | «« | At some point, Sanu's snap count has to equate to FPs. |
Stefon Diggs | @NO | $6,600 | 7% | - | «« | Will deal with Lattimore in coverage. Gamescript helps. |
Tajae Sharpe | @NE | $3,800 | 1% | - | «« | GPP sleeper. Pats can be susceptible to slot WRs. |
DK Metcalf | @PHL | $6,100 | 14% | - | « | Mismatch for Eagles' DBs. Will Seattle throw the ball? |
A.J. Brown | @NE | $7,400 | 4% | - | « | Gilmore shadow = limited upside/value at lofty salary. |
Kenny Stills | BUF | $4,600 | 1% | Yes | « | Stills should be WR2 with overflow from Hopkins-White. |
Tyler Lockett | @PHL | $7,200 | 18% | - | « | Birds have been stingy versus slot WRs. Short fade. |
Adam Thielen | @NO | $6,200 | 1% | - | « | Avoids Saints' best coverage in slot. GPP-only. |
N'Keal Harry | TEN | $4,100 | 1% | - | « | Rookie is catching Brady's eye recently. GPP flyer. |
David Moore | @PHL | $3,400 | 1% | - | « | Differentiator for GPPs. Absorbs Josh Gordon role at 1%. |
WR OVERVIEW: Michael Thomas tops the charts for both cash games and tournaments due to his exorbitant marketshare of the Saints offense on a weekend where they boast Vegas' highest implied team total. Thomas is collecting one-third of the Saints' targets this season (best in the NFL) and should have no trouble with the likes of Xavier Rhodes and Mike Hughes, who have allowed 4 different wide receivers to collect 10 or more receptions in a game this season. Having allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to Thomas' position, it is difficult to envision the Vikings slowing this year's top receiver in any capacity. Having paid $9.3K for Thomas, it will be necessary to find value elsewhere at the wide receiver position for cash games. Of the options, Corey Davis, Mohamed Sanu, and Kenny Stills appear to be the best candidates--to be fair, none of those names will fill your heart with confidence, but the limited slate necessitates a few chances and wide receiver is where you will want to be a bit risky for cash formats. Davis is cheaply priced at $3.8K and has 7+ points in 3 consecutive games; he should benefit from the Pats secondary focusing on A.J. Brown, which should result in an extra target or two going in Davis' direction. In that same game, Sanu has been playing more snaps than any Patriots' wide receiver, but has not delivered substantial fantasy production in spite of that playing time. That said, Sanu is now at a sub-$4K price point and needs only 3-4 receptions to justify his place in cash game rosters, which is well within the range of expectations for a receiver that caught 10 passes in a game since becoming a Patriot in early November. As for Kenny Stills, he is a bet on the Bills building a lead and forcing Deshaun Watson to throw to a receiver not named DeAndre Hopkins, who will be dealing with the league's best coverage cornerback in TreDavious White. If you think that the Texans win the game, you might want to avoid Stills in cash formats. For GPPs, Julian Edelman will be (relatively) underowned on this limited slate due to recency bias, but he can easily deliver a 100-yard performance against Logan Ryan, one of ProFootballFocus' worst-rated coverage cornerbacks in 2019 (86th of 87 qualifiers). In New Orleans, the bulk of the attention will be on the Saints' passing game, but if they jump to an early lead, the run-first Vikings may have to abandon the run and throw to Stefon Diggs and/or Adam Thielen, both of whom are projected to be on less than 10% of tournament rosters, which is too low given their respective talent and implied gamescript.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Dallas Goedert | SEA | $5,200 | 52% | Yes | «««« | If Ertz sits, Goedert is the class of the position. |
Dawson Knox | @HOU | $2,900 | 1% | - | ««« | Salary-saver and contrarian option vs. susceptible D. |
Josh Perkins | SEA | $2,900 | 8% | Yes | ««« | Performed well last week in similar situation. |
Jonnu Smith | @NE | $3,800 | 10% | - | «« | Unpredictable, but cannot be ignored on short slate. |
Jacob Hollister | @PHL | $4,300 | 20% | - | «« | Eagles defend TEs well, but worthy of a few % in GPPs. |
Jared Cook | MIN | $4,900 | 13% | - | « | Redzone monster has scored 5 times in last 4 games. |
Darren Fells | BUF | $3,000 | 1% | - | « | GPP differentiator. 2nd in redzone targets for HOU. |
TE OVERVIEW: With Zach Ertz (rib, kidney) likely on the shelf once again this week, Dallas Goedert becomes the de facto chalk at the tight end position for the second consecutive week. On over a third of tournament rosters last week, Goedert was upstaged by Josh Perkins, who scored the Eagles' lone receiving touchdown against the Giants. Both Goedert and Perkins are viable options for all formats again this week because they are affordable and should be heavily involved as the Eagles will be without a slew of receivers lost to injury throughout the season (Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor). With the Eagles' tight ends being on nearly 2/3 of all tournament lineups, there is definitely value in taking a contrarian approach to the position in the hopes that they come up flat and another tight end delivers a big day. That said, the likelihood of another tight end delivering substantial production relative to either Goedert or Perkins is limited because the remainder of tight end options are generally afterthoughts on their respective offenses. Of those options, Dawson Knox is an intriguing salary-saving candidate at $2.9K against a Texans defense that has allowed 10+ DK points to the position in every game across the past month. In that same game, Darren Fells trails only DeAndre Hopkins in redzone targets for the Texans and will go underowned against the Bills, who have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends over their previous five games.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Texans | BUF | $2,600 | 11% | Yes | «««« | J.J. Watt is returning at just the right time. Cheap. |
Titans | @NE | $2,400 | 11% | - | ««« | Underowned based on projected value. GPP-only. |
Seahawks | @PHL | $2,800 | 7% | - | ««« | See comments on Titans defense (above). |
Vikings | @NO | $2,200 | 2% | - | «« | A defensive (or special teams) TD will do it at $2.2K. |
Patriots | TEN | $3,400 | 29% | Yes | «« | Safest option on the board, but ownership reflects it. |
Bills | @HOU | $3,100 | 11% | - | «« | Stellar secondary could deliver upside. |
Saints | MIN | $3,000 | 20% | - | « | Definitely in play at home as big Vegas faves. |
Eagles | SEA | $2,900 | 8% | - | « | Untalented secondary tempers expectations for upside. |
TEAM DEF OVERVIEW: Playing the team defense position during the playoffs is a bit different from the regular season because the bulk of teams that make it to this point in the season have quarterbacks that do a decent job of protecting the ball and avoiding extraneous turnovers. As such, you are advised to gain exposure to all defenses on this Wild-Card Weekend and to not go too overweight on the field on any one of the defenses on this slate. As for cash game options, look to save a bit of salary with the J.J. Watt-driven Texans at home against Josh Allen or spend up and take the Patriots at home against Ryan Tannehill. In both cases, you are going against the quarterback(s) most likely to implode on the short slate and get a defense that is above-average to excellent. For tournaments, however, grab a piece of every defense across your GPP repertoire because a random kickoff return for a touchdown by an underowned defense (i.e., Minnesota) could be the difference between finishing in the top 5% and outside of the payline on a week with such limited options.