For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LOW-SCORING WEEK?
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Matt Ryan | @NO | $6,000 | 4% | - | «««« | 300+ yards in every game that he has completed in 2019. |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | @IND | $5,200 | 1% | - | «««« | Value receivers & pass-heavy gamescript place him here. |
Kyle Allen | @GB | $5,100 | 2% | - | ««« | Positive regression candidate is cheap and underowned. |
Jared Goff | @PIT | $6,200 | 3% | - | ««« | Rested & underowned. Stacking easier without Cooks. |
Drew Brees | ATL | $6,700 | 11% | - | ««« | Only deterrent is if Atlanta cannot keep it close. |
Patrick Mahomes II | @TEN | $7,000 | 9% | - | «« | Definitely in play vs. pass funnel defense on the road. |
Daniel Jones | @NYJ | $5,700 | 4% | - | «« | Jets defense is banged up. Game pace is promising. |
Sam Darnold | NYG | $5,800 | 1% | - | «« | Giants secondary has stopped nobody--plus matchup. |
Matthew Stafford | @CHI | $6,400 | 1% | - | «« | Tough matchup, but Stafford has been stellar of late. |
Mason Rudolph | LAR | $4,900 | 1% | - | « | Just here for the JuJu stacks. Limited exposure. |
Ryan Tannehill | KC | $5,100 | 6% | - | « | Possibly overlooked despite plus gamescript. Intriguing. |
Jameis Winston | ARZ | $6,800 | 16% | - | « | Crowd fave. Fading somewhat to get more Ryan, etc. |
Kyler Murray | @TB | $6,500 | 12% | Yes | « | Cannot justify % with limited WR options. Short fade. |
Lamar Jackson | @CIN | $7,300 | 14% | Yes | « | Think this one gets out of hand early. Could be limited. |
CASH: Two scrambling quarterbacks in soft matchups sit atop the cash game list on Tips and Picks this week: Kyler Murray ($6.5K) and Lamar Jackson ($7.3K) each look primed to deliver 3x value on their respective salaries. Of the two, Murray is my personal favorite for cash games because we should expect him to be pushed by a solid Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense for four full quarters; Jackson, however, could be limited in the second half if Cincinnati cannot get anything going with Ryan Finley under center. That said, both have substantial scoring floors because of what they can do on the ground; Murray has 25 or more rushing yards in 67% of Arizona's games this season and Jackson is basically a running back who also throws the ball 25+ times each game. Murray gets a plush matchup against the Bucs' pass-funnel defense (1st DVOA rush defense; 26th DVOA pass defense) that has allowed 26.7 fantasy points per game to his position (30th in the league). Jackson finds himself a similarly soft matchup against the Bengals, who allow 24.2 DK points per game and have not yielded less than 18.5 points to an opposing quarterback all season. For GPP play, however, I am recommending fading both of these quarterbacks relative to the field. Murray's upside could be limited due to increased ground production via Kenyan Drake and David Johnson, not to mention Larry Fitzgerald's yearly decline at this point in the season. Meanwhile, Jackson's stacking options are limited to Marquise Brown and/or Mark Andrews in a game where the Ravens may take the air out of the ball in the second half.
GPP: Excluding one game that saw Matt Ryan go down with an injury and an uprepared Matt Schaub take his place, the Atlanta Falcons' quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season. Fielding one of the league's worst defenses (31.2 points per game; 30th in NFL), the Falcons are forced to play catchup and no team's quarterback averages more attempts per game than Atlanta (42.9). This brings Matt Ryan back into the mix after missing his 1st start in his previous 154 games. Ryan is projected to be on only 4% of tournament rosters despite the fact that his team is slated to lose to the Saints by nearly two touchdowns. Just last year, Ryan shredded this Saints defense for over 750 yards passing and 7 touchdowns in their 2 NFC South matchups. After crunching the numbers, it came as somewhat of a surprise to see "another Ryan," Ryan Fitzpatrick come up as a 4-star GPP selection this Sunday. Giving it more thought, perhaps it is not surprising, as Fitzmagic has flirted with the 300-yard bonus on 50% of his starts this season, his stack options are limited, pricing on all Dolphins is excellent, Miami has lost two running backs in two weeks, and the implied gamescript sets up well for abundant passing. If he comes in on only 1% of tournament lineups on Sunday, it will have been too low, particularly on a week where value is otherwise limited. Sticking with the value theme, both quarterbacks in the game in the Meadowlands are intriguing tournament options: Sam Darnold ($5.8K) and Daniel Jones ($5.7K) will not be highly owned due to recent performances, but the Giants' 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense is far from daunting and the Jets are likely missing three starters on their defense with another handful of players tagged as questionable. Both teams have been running a lot of plays of late and this game has sneaky shootout potential (if you are a gambler, betting over 44.5 is a solid proposition here) for game-stacking purposes.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Kalen Ballage | @IND | $3,800 | 4% | - | «««« | Redzone usage and price cannot be ignored. |
Ronald Jones II | ARZ | $4,300 | 22% | Yes | «««« | Crowd fave is priced too low for expected volume. |
Nick Chubb | BUF | $7,000 | 11% | Yes | ««« | Adrian Peterson went for 130 yards vs. BUF last week. |
Damien Williams | @TEN | $4,900 | 7% | - | ««« | Getting no respect. Should be higher-owned in GPPs. |
Aaron Jones | CAR | $7,400 | 10% | - | ««« | Stablemate has been stealing TDs but not sustainable. |
Trey Edmunds | LAR | $3,400 | 1% | - | ««« | GPP sleeper. Banking on a score to deliver 4x value. |
Marlon Mack | MIA | $7,000 | 14% | - | ««« | Big home fave vs. 31st-ranked DVOA rush defense. |
Devin Singletary | @CLE | $5,000 | 17% | Yes | «« | Earning the RB1 role in BUF. Volume/$ ratio is stellar. |
Derrick Henry | KC | $6,400 | 11% | - | «« | If the Titans keep it close, he'll be heavily involved. |
Mark Ingram | @CIN | $7,100 | 14% | - | «« | Should see 20 touches if Vegas gamescript plays out. |
Ty Johnson | @CHI | $4,100 | 3% | - | «« | Too cheap to be ignored off two average games. |
Saquon Barkley | @NYJ | $8,800 | 15% | - | «« | Only 3 TDs all season, but could turn around here. |
LeVeon Bell | NYG | $6,900 | 10% | - | « | Solid usage in last. Like Saquon, limited TDs to date. |
Todd Gurley | @PIT | $6,100 | 3% | - | « | Return of Brown and Henderson's increased usage = ehh. |
Devonta Freeman | @NO | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | Limited upside: No 100-yard game since Week 15 in 2017. |
Joe Mixon | BAL | $4,700 | 3% | - | « | Volume is there, but offense cannot sustain drives. |
David Johnson | @TB | $5,700 | 10% | - | « | Tough to recommend with Drake stealing touches. |
Jaylen Samuels | LAR | $6,300 | 11% | - | « | Expensive given the competition from Edmunds in last. |
Alvin Kamara | ATL | $8,200 | 15% | - | « | Excited to have him back. Could tick upwards overnight. |
Christian McCaffrey | @GB | $10,500 | 24% | Yes | « | His efficiency is incredible. Fade at your own peril. |
David Montgomery | DET | $5,300 | 25% | « | Not sure that I understand the love? Fade candidate. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: Let's start with the obvious question first: Is $10.5K too much to pay for Christian McCaffrey in cash games? Given that he is averaging 3x this salary over the course of the entire season, he is clearly in play if the opportunity cost is not too high at other positions on your roster. If you go with CMC in one of your running back slots, you will need to pair him across from either Ronald Jones II ($4.3K) or Devin Singletary ($5.0K) to leave enough salary for other positions. Ronald Jones II is trending in the right direction in the Bucs backfield, as Peyton Barber has clearly fallen out of favor with Brian Arians, having appeared in just 14% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps last week. Meanwhile, Jones has seen his marketshare increase for three consecutive weeks and is coming off a 20-touch, 16.2-DK point game against the Seahawks last Sunday; his matchup against the Bucs' 1st-ranked DVOA pass defense is imposing, but the implied volume, high team total, and low price are collectively too much to ignore. In Buffalo, Devin Singletary looked explosive in extensive action last weekend against the Redskins; Singletary played nearly 70% of Buffalo's offensive snaps and finished the afternoon with 23 touches, 140 all-purpose yards, and a score. He appears to have surpassed the aging Frank Gore on the depth chart and is attractively priced against Cleveland's 21st-ranked DVOA rush defense this weekend. In that same game, do not look past Nick Chubb, who will be the focal point of the Browns offense yet again. Chubb has 20 or more touches in all-but-one game this season and matches up well against the Bills "run-funnel" defense (5th DVOA pass defense; 30th DVOA rush defense). Given Baker Mayfield's ongoing struggles, Freddie Kitchens will likely lean harder onto the second-year back to lead the Browns to victory.
GPP: A model of inefficiency to this point in the season, Kalen Ballage cannot be ignored in tournament formats on Sunday. Ballage is averaging an embarrassing 2.0 yards per carry across 35 carries, but should get the lion's share of touches out of the Dolphins backfield now that both Kenyan Drake (trade) and Mark Walton (injury) have departed southern Florida. Some will be scared away from Ballage because of the aforementioned poor production and because he could yield some time to rookies Patrick Laird or Myles Gaskin, but we cannot discount the fact that Ballage led the team in redzone opportunities before Drake and Walton were traded/injured. If the Dolphins can get inside the redzone, we can expect Ballage to be their primary target for those high-value touches at only $3.8K. In Nashville, do not sleep on Damien Williams, who is coming off a stellar Sunday night performance against the Packers (12/125/1) that saw him take a commanding lead in the battle for snaps with LeSean McCoy in the Chiefs backfield. The Titans boast the 3rd-ranked DVOA rush defense, which should keep the masses away from Williams, but we saw Christian McCaffrey dice this same defense for 40+ DK points just last Sunday. As a deep GPP flyer, Trey Edmunds is an intriguing salary-saving option at only $3.4K against the Rams. Coming off a week that saw Jaylen Samuels on > 50% of tournament lineups across the industry, it seems that nobody noticed that Edmunds was the primary ball carrier for Mike Tomlin's Steelers, picking up 12 carries for 73 yards including a pair of redzone touches. With injuries still plaguing that backfield and an additional week to practice, it might be reasonable to expect Edmunds to get a dozen touches against the Rams this weekend at a low price point.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Michael Thomas | ATL | $8,300 | 29% | Yes | «««« | Cannot get enough of him in this spot. |
Golden Tate | @NYJ | $5,900 | 8% | - | «««« | No Shepard, no Engram = extra action vs. hobbled DEF. |
Calvin Ridley | @NO | $5,400 | 7% | - | «««« | ATL receivers are underowned despite shootout potential. |
Curtis Samuel | @GB | $4,600 | 9% | Yes | ««« | Gets lesser coverage than Moore. Scored in last. |
DeVante Parker | @IND | $4,800 | 6% | Yes | ««« | Preston Williams to IR = more action for Parker. |
Cooper Kupp | @PIT | $7,300 | 11% | - | ««« | Steelers struggle to contain slot WRs. Cooks = inactive. |
Julio Jones | @NO | $7,500 | 9% | - | ««« | See notes on Calvin Ridley above. Ditto. |
Tyreek Hill | @TEN | $7,700 | 14% | - | ««« | Speed will be too much for Butler-less Titans secondary. |
Robert Woods | @PIT | $5,600 | 6% | - | ««« | Deals with Haden, but volume and upside are there. |
Breshad Perriman | ARZ | $3,000 | 1% | - | ««« | Leverage play against popular TB skill players. |
D.J. Moore | @GB | $5,200 | 10% | - | «« | TD regression candidate. Stackable w/Allen in CMC fade. |
Marquise Brown | @CIN | $5,100 | 8% | - | «« | Maybe should be higher--lone WR stack for Lamar. |
Sammy Watkins | @TEN | $5,100 | 8% | - | «« | Lower ADoT, higher volume than Tyreek. GPP-viable. |
Ted Ginn Jr | ATL | $3,700 | 8% | - | «« | Suspect that TreQuan returns actually helps Ginn. |
Larry Fitzgerald | TB | $5,500 | 6% | - | «« | Usage/output are trending down. Plus matchup. |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | LAR | $5,800 | 2% | - | «« | Doubt that Jalen Ramsey chases him into the slot. |
Marvin Jones | @CHI | $6,200 | 3% | - | «« | Similar volume to Golladay at half the ownership. |
Russell Gage | @NO | $3,400 | 3% | - | «« | The "new" Mohamed Sanu in Atlanta. Discounted $2K. |
Christian Kirk | TB | $5,200 | 18% | - | «« | Crowd favorite is best receiving option for Kyler. |
Allen Robinson | DET | $6,300 | 6% | - | «« | Disappointed versus worse DBs in last. Blame Trubisky. |
A.J. Brown | KC | $4,300 | 13% | Yes | «« | Lack of Corey Davis elevates Brown to WR1 status. |
Robby Anderson | NYG | $4,700 | 8% | - | « | Big play receiver could get behind shaky NYG secondary. |
TreQuan Smith | ATL | $3,200 | 1% | - | « | Snake-bitten receiver has talent. In play vs. ATL |
Kenny Golladay | @CHI | $7,000 | 6% | - | « | Red-hot of late. Expect him to come back to Earth here. |
Darius Slayton | @NYJ | $4,200 | 2% | - | « | Snaps are there. Price/ownership are appealing. |
Allen Hurns | @IND | $3,000 | 2% | - | « | Should see more work without Preston Williams. |
Jamison Crowder | NYG | $5,000 | 7% | - | « | Volume receiver needs to score to reach GPP value. |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | CAR | $4,500 | 1% | - | « | Tough spot for MVS. Limited exposure. |
Chester Rogers | MIA | $4,100 | 1% | - | « | 3/22/1 in first game without T.Y. Excellent matchup. |
Allen Lazard | CAR | $3,800 | 1% | - | « | Should avoid CAR's superior perimeter CBs. Sneaky. |
Tajae Sharpe | KC | $3,100 | 1% | - | « | Cheap differentiator with 100-yard upside at low price. |
Auden Tate | BAL | $4,000 | 3% | - | « | 37 targets over past month. Will Finley target him, too? |
Mike Evans | ARZ | $7,600 | 21% | Yes | « | High ownership is only deterrent. Just under the field. |
John Brown | @CLE | $6,000 | 2% | - | « | A model of consistency in 2019, but run-heavy game. |
Cole Beasley | @CLE | $4,100 | 3% | - | « | Two teams dedicated to run = little appeal. |
Tyler Boyd | BAL | $4,700 | 8% | - | « | Tough to know what to expect with Finley under center. |
Odell Beckham | BUF | $6,100 | 6% | - | « | If he beats TreDavius, Mayfield still has to find him. |
Jarvis Landry | BUF | $4,900 | 7% | - | « | OBJ-White shadow could help, but this is a Chubb game. |
Chris Godwin | ARZ | $7,400 | 18% | - | « | Fine play, but will be underweight on field. |
Zach Pascal | MIA | $5,300 | 9% | - | « | Should be a Marlon Mack attack = less passing. |
Davante Adams | CAR | $6,900 | 14% | - | « | Fading due to matchup, weather, and ownership. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: All the Michael Thomas. With a 34% marketshare of targets from Saints quarterbacks, Michael Thomas is an excellent cash and GPP option against a Falcons secondary that has allowed three different wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns this season. From there, it is reasonable to roster Mike Evans against the Cardinals given his superior talent and high implied Vegas team total (28.5 points, 2nd highest on main slate). At $7.6K, it will not be easy to get Evans into the same lineup as Michael Thomas, particularly if you also have Christian McCaffrey in that lineup, but Evans is averaging 15 targets over the Bucs' past 3 games and could be helped by getting shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson, who is the Cardinals' worst statistical defensive back since returning from suspension in Week #7. At the middle-tier, Curtis Samuel ($4.6K @ GB), DeVante Parker ($4.8K @IND), and A.J. Brown ($4.3K vs. KC) are all reasonable volume-based options to round out your cash game lineups. Samuel continues to be heavily targeted in his offense and is affordably priced with a gamescript that favors passing; Parker is the next man up in the Dolphins receiving corps after Preston Williams went on the IR with a knee injury earlier this month; Brown is another beneficiary of an injury to a teammate (Corey Davis, hip) and should see plenty of looks through the air in a game where the Titans are projected to trail.
GPP: With multiple key receivers watching from the sidelines, the Giants will look to Golden Tate to move the sticks against the Jets on Sunday. With Evan Engram (foot) and Sterling Shepard (concussion) both inactive, there should be double-digit targets to redistribute to Giants receivers and Tate looks to be the most likely recipient of those looks; since returning from suspension in Week #7, Tate is averaging over eight targets per game and could be a menace to the Jets, who have done little to slow down slot receivers this season. In New Orleans, the entire DFS community is going to be on Michael Thomas and the Saints, but our early projections indicate that skill players from the Falcons' passing game could go somewhat overlooked; both Julio Jones ($7.5K) and Calvin Ridley ($5.4K) could be on less than 10% of tournament lineups despite the Falcons possibly throwing the ball 40 times. For GPP differentiation and salary savings, a couple of low-owned, high-upside possibilities include Breeshad Perriman, Russell Gage, and/or Tajae Sharpe. Perriman will go completely overlooked due to a career of disappointing box scores, but his usage is trending upwards and he is coming off an 8-target game that saw him get into the endzone; at $3.0K, he offers both savings and leverage against the lofty ownership of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. In Atlanta, Russell Gage appears to have absorbed the Mohamed Sanu role and can be had for about a $2K discount from where Sanu had been appearing prior to his trade with the Patriots. Gage played nearly 60% of the Falcons' offensive snaps last week and finished with a respectable 7/58/0 stat line. And Tajae Sharpe will be playing the role of a WR2 behind A.J. Brown on Sunday against the Chiefs; Sharpe is far from a good receiver, but he is the biggest redzone wide receiver on the Titans this weekend and the implied gamescript favors passing for the normally run-heavy Titans.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Travis Kelce | @TEN | $6,400 | 13% | - | «««« | No higher upside at the position. Reasonable ownership. |
Austin Hooper | @NO | $5,500 | 9% | - | ««« | Probably underowned given implied gamescript & role. |
Mark Andrews | @CIN | $5,200 | 10% | - | ««« | Recency bias keeping crowd exposure at modest levels. |
Mike Gesicki | @IND | $3,100 | 15% | Yes | ««« | Will be crowd fave. Tough to fade at this price. |
Jared Cook | ATL | $4,100 | 3% | - | ««« | Returns from injury. Great spot and low ownership. |
Eric Ebron | MIA | $3,900 | 3% | - | «« | Squeaky wheel narrative? Loss of Hilton helps prospects. |
Gerald Everett | @PIT | $4,500 | 3% | - | «« | 4x value in 3 of previous 5 games at this salary. |
O.J. Howard | ARZ | $3,300 | 9% | - | «« | NFL's friendliest defense to TEs. Will Arians use him? |
Rhett Ellison | @NYJ | $2,500 | 14% | Yes | « | Punt option will be highly used. Going underweight. |
Vance McDonald | LAR | $3,800 | 1% | - | « | Usage trending up. Good GPP differentiator at 1%. |
Ryan Griffin | NYG | $3,100 | 1% | - | « | 10/116/2 over last 2 games. Do not overlook at $3.1K. |
Demetrius Harris | BUF | $2,900 | 1% | - | « | A PowerGrid special from Devin Knotts. I don't hate it. |
Jonnu Smith | KC | $3,500 | 7% | - | « | Unexciting at this ownership & price point. Slight fade. |
Greg Olsen | @GB | $3,600 | 7% | - | « | Allen does not seem to use his TE as much as Cam. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: On a week where value is tough to find for cash game builds, saving salary at the highly volatile tight end position is the savvy move. Rolling with Mike Gesicki ($3.1K) or Rhett Ellison ($2.5K) as punt options while spending up on alternative positions makes a lot of sense, particularly given that each of these players should see an uptick in targets with key injuries to their respective receiving corps. Gesicki has accrued 40+ yards in 3 out of 4 of Ryan Fitzpatrick's starts this season and is coming off a 6/95/0 performance that saw him benefit from an in-game injury to Preston Williams that resulted in him being played on the IR earlier this week. In New York, Ellison is the next man up on a Giants squad that has been injury-riddled for much of the 2019 season. Both Evan Engram (foot) and Sterling Shepard (concussion) have already been announced as out for Sunday's matchup against the New York Jets, which means that Daniel Jones will be throwing to Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Rhett Ellison (when he is not handing off to Saquon Barkley). Dating back to his days with Minnesota, Ellison was never a world-beater, but the Giants have targeted tight ends an average of 10 times per game this season, which is enough implied volume to generate 3x value on his site-minimum salary.
GPP: The Chiefs have played a game on DraftKings' main slate on six different occasions this year; of those six games, I have had Travis Kelce as a 3- or 4-star play on five different occasions and this week is no different. Kelce tops the list of tournament tight ends because he is the most elite option every week, but he stands out even more this week given the fact that Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, and George Kittle are all playing outside of this slate, leaving only a few options capable of scoring multiple touchdowns. Kelce's prospects against the Titans are solid given Tennessee's propensity to stop the run (3rd DVOA rush defense), which forces opponents to throw more often against them. When the Titans have faced above-average tight ends this season, they have been generous, allowing a 6/97/0 stat line to Hunter Henry and 9/130/0 to Austin Hooper. If you cannot reserve enough salary to get to Kelce, you might consider a pair of tight ends returning from injury in plus matchups. O.J. Howard ($3.3K) and Jared Cook ($4.1K) are both coming off two-game absences and find themselves in favorable positions against the Cardinals and Falcons, respectively. No team in the league has been more generous to tight ends than Arizona and the Saints boast Vegas' highest implied team total on the week, so rolling with either Howard or Cook at a discount from Kelce is entirely reasonable. Lastly, Eric Ebron is still running more receiving routes than his stablemate, Jack Doyle, who has outscored him in all-but-two games this season, which means that Ebron should be headed for positive scoring regression in the second half of the year; given that Ebron went on record with Head Coach Frank Reich about wanting the ball more often, we might expect to see that regression happen as soon as this weekend.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Rams | @PIT | $3,000 | 4% | - | «««« | Rested and ready versus Conner-less Steelers. |
Bills | @CLE | $2,900 | 6% | - | «««« | Waiting on the next Baker Mayfield implosion at $2.9K. |
Ravens | @CIN | $4,000 | 8% | Yes | ««« | Possibly paying up to be contrarian vs. Finley. |
Browns | BUF | $2,500 | 14% | Yes | ««« | Browns defense getting healthier of late. |
Lions | @CHI | $2,900 | 2% | - | ««« | Going against Trubisky has paid dividends thus far. |
Jets | NYG | $2,700 | 6% | - | «« | Giants' M.A.S.H. unit of an offense could struggle. |
Colts | MIA | $3,500 | 11% | Yes | «« | Devoid of starting RBs & WR1, Dolphins in dire straits. |
Chiefs | @TEN | $2,700 | 6% | - | «« | Tannehill threw a pair of picks in last. Repeat here? |
Packers | CAR | $3,200 | 3% | - | «« | Tough to play in Lambeau in the cold. |
Steelers | LAR | $2,600 | 6% | - | « | Steelers D is keeping them in games. Need more here. |
Panthers | @GB | $2,600 | 1% | - | « | Small piece for tournament diversity and poor weather. |
Cardinals | @TB | $2,200 | 3% | - | « | Only here to get those Jameis interceptions. |
Giants | @NYJ | $2,800 | 7% | - | « | Jets' leaky offensive line allowing 4.6 sacks/game. |
Saints | ATL | $3,700 | 8% | - | « | Vegas says ATL will be limited. Here for that reason. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: There are no 3-star defenses on the Vegas Value Chart this week, which typically means that choosing a cash game defense will be difficult and scoring across the industry could be higher. Of the 20 defenses on the main slate, 3 of them appear to be worthy of cash game consideration: Baltimore ($4.0K), Indianapolis ($3.5K), and Cleveland ($2.5K). If you have the salary after building around your skill players, Baltimore is the best selection because they get a matchup against a quarterback in Ryan Finley that has never taken an NFL snap; their prospects are bolstered by the recent addition of Marcus Peters (trade) and Jimmy Smith (return from injury), both of whom could ruin Finley's NFL debut. At a $500 discount from Baltimore, the Colts get the Dolphins at home and are projected to score 12.5 points, which is well-above the 3x multiplier needed to justify their position in your cash game rosters; given that I am higher on the Dolphins than most this week, I likely will limit my exposure to the Colts in cash games despite our trustworthy projections. Lastly, the Browns are affordably priced at $2.5K and will host Josh Allen and company on Sunday. Buffalo is projected to score only 18.5 points (3rd lowest on the slate) and we all know that Josh Allen has blowup potential (20 career touchdowns versus 19 career interceptions).
GPP: For tournament play, rostering the rested Los Angeles Rams against Mason Rudolph at only 4% ownership seems like a solid proposition. The Steelers do not allow many sacks, but Aaron Donald and the Rams know how to get after the quarterback and they should have additional time to do with Jalen Ramsey settling into the defense. Another road defense possibility is the Buffalo Bills taking on Baker Mayfield's Browns. Mayfield has thrown one less touchdown (7) than games played (8) this season and could struggle to do much against the Bills' 5th-ranked DVOA pass defense led by TreDavious White, who has given up one touchdown in coverage in the past year. Elsewhere, feel free to go against Mitchell Trubisky with the Lions' $2.9K defense, as Trubisky is a bad decision away from being benched to bring in the equally error-prone Chase Daniel in relief.