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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LOW-SCORING WEEK? We have hit a point in the season where more teams (four this week, six next week) are getting their respective rest weeks. Additionally, we also lost a key game (Jacksonville-Houston) from the main slate this week because of an early London start. The result is that we have gone from 28 teams' worth of players early in the season to only 20 teams' worth of players this week, resulting in tougher decisions about players because there are simply less from which to choose. The consequence(s) is typically that overall scores are lower, "safe" cash game options tend to be more limited, and the amount of overlap on ownership is increased. It is the latter variable that you can exploit--by taking stances on those players who are, in your eyes, over-owned due to group-think on these limited player pool weeks, you can get a leg up on the competition by fading them and/or rostering their teammates for leverage. For example, as of the writing of this article, it appears that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could reach ~ 25% ownership in GPP lineups on Sunday, largely because of an implied passing gamescript for the Buccaneers and because their backfield is a three-way committee that offers zero fantasy appeal. Imagine, however, if Cameron Brate scores a touchdown, a running back scores a touchdown, and the Bucs kick a few field goals; the result will be that at least 1/3 of tournament rosters will feature one (or both) of Evans and Godwin, who will not have delivered on not inconsequential salaries. Fading those high-caliber receivers will not be comfortable and maybe it is not the right decision for you, but the principle is the focus of this week's tip: Take stances on players you feel strongly about on weeks where the player pool is limited.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Philip Rivers | GB | $5,100 | 6% | Yes | «««« | MG3's continued struggles puts onus on Rivers to score. |
Mitchell Trubisky | @PHL | $5,000 | 2% | - | «««« | GPP special: Could get pulled, could score 30 vs. PHL. |
Matthew Stafford | @OAK | $6,800 | 9% | - | ««« | Gets OAK pass funnel defense. 2+ TDs in all but 1 game. |
Kyle Allen | TEN | $5,200 | 3% | - | ««« | Exposure to WRs driving Allen's spot in these ranks. |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | $4,800 | 2% | - | ««« | Faces 21st DVOA pass defense in passing gamescript. |
Jameis Winston | @SEA | $6,100 | 9% | - | «« | 300+ passing yards in 4 of last 5 games. Excellent WRs. |
Sam Darnold | @MIA | $5,900 | 3% | - | «« | Just here for the matchup vs. MIA's turnstile defense. |
Brandon Allen | CLE | $4,100 | 2% | - | «« | Stacked w/Fant, Allen enables CMC/Dalvin GPP lineups. |
Russell Wilson | TB | $7,100 | 15% | Yes | «« | Crowd fave has easy path vs. TB; quiet in last 2 games. |
Carson Wentz | CHI | $5,700 | 6% | - | « | Here for the Ertz stacks vs. TE-friendly defense. |
Matt Moore | MIN | $4,800 | 4% | Yes | « | Journeyman hit 4x this salary vs. GB last week. |
Aaron Rodgers | @LAC | $6,900 | 8% | - | « | Lack of excitement around WR-CB matchups = less ARod. |
Derek Carr | DET | $5,500 | 10% | - | « | Has yet to surpass 300 yards in a game this year. |
Kirk Cousins | @KC | $6,700 | 4% | - | « | Upside is there, but this looks like a Dalvin showcase. |
Josh Allen | WAS | $6,500 | 7% | - | « | Not a fan of paying a premium for low-score offense. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: The Buccaneers secondary has allowed 5 straight quarterbacks to surpass 300 passing yards, which bodes well for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, who host Tampa Bay at the Clink on Sunday. Some will be scared away by back-to-back pedestrian weeks by Wilson, but he is averaging well over 3x his $7.1K salary this season and should have no issues carving through the Bucs' pass funnel defense (1st rush DVOA; 26th pass DVOA). Potential pivots away from Wilson include a pair of punt options: Philip Rivers ($5.1K) and Matt Moore ($4.8K). Rivers is a strong cash and GPP play because he is affordably priced, stacks easily with several receivers, and is destined for positive scoring regression on the latter half of this season when one considers his advanced metrics and historical performance. Moore will lead the Chiefs as short home underdogs and could be asked to throw the ball 35+ times to keep pace with the Vikings, who Vegas projects to score 25+ points; in his first start against the Packers last week, Moore performed admirably, completing 67% of his passes, throwing no picks, and finishing with 21+ DK points.
GPP: It's a painful proposition, but Mitchell Trubisky is jumping off my charts as a solid GPP option against the Eagles this weekend. To be clear, Trubisky has been horrible for much of the season and is at risk to be benched with a poor performance, but the combination of his price, ownership, and matchup are the perfect trio for GPP consideration. The Birds have allowed 75% of opposing quarterbacks to reach GPP value on Trubisky's $5K salary and are near-impossible to beat via the run, which will put the onus on the Bears' passing game to stay competitive. Given Chicago's defensive demise (77 points allowed in the past 3 weeks), Trubisky could be asked to throw early and often at a cheap price point and will be found on less than 5% of tournament rosters. In Oakland, both quaterbacks will be popular with the masses in a game projected to be the highest-scoring on the Vegas boards. Matthew Stafford ($6.8K) and Derek Carr ($5.5K) will be on a total of 20% of GPP lineups; of the two, Stafford is the preferred choice because of lingering questions about the Lions backfield and the Raiders' tendency to funnel action towards the pass. Lastly, do not sleep on Kyle Allen at home against the Titans, whose second-ranked DVOA rush defense also pushes opponents to throw more often than they normally would. Allen's upside is boosted by a pair of solid, albeit unproven, receivers in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, both of whom are slated for positive scoring regression on the back-half of the season.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Jaylen Samuels | IND | $4,000 | 8% | Yes | «««« | Injuries to PIT backfield catapult implied usage/upside. |
Devin Singletary | WAS | $4,700 | 3% | - | «««« | Snaps trending up; touches will follow. Plus gamescript. |
Adrian Peterson | @BUF | $4,200 | 7% | - | ««« | Averaging 21 touches/game with Callahan calling plays. |
Dalvin Cook | @KC | $9,500 | 20% | - | ««« | The ONLY deterrent is his salary. Get what you can. |
LeVeon Bell | @MIA | $7,700 | 22% | - | ««« | Needs Gase to feed him vs. MIA's 31st DVOA rush defense. |
Josh Jacobs | DET | $6,500 | 15% | - | ««« | Gruden is committed: 89 touches in past month. Solid. |
Jordan Howard | CHI | $5,100 | 3% | - | «« | Revenge narrative vs. former team. 24 touches in last. |
Derrick Henry | @CAR | $5,700 | 12% | Yes | «« | Path to beating CAR is via ground: 32nd DVOA rush D. |
Chris Carson | TB | $7,200 | 16% | - | «« | Could go overlooked due to popularity of his QB. Sneaky. |
Marlon Mack | @PIT | $6,300 | 3% | - | «« | Could be asked to do more w/out T.Y. Tough matchup. |
David Montgomery | @PHL | $5,200 | 4% | - | «« | 31 touches in last, but matchup here is daunting. |
Melvin Gordon | GB | $5,000 | 10% | - | « | Has not surpassed 32 rushing yards since returning. |
Aaron Jones | @LAC | $7,000 | 19% | - | « | Delivering as a receiver of late--is that sustainable? |
Mark Walton | NYJ | $4,500 | 15% | Yes | « | Inherits lead RB after Drake-to-ARZ trade. Poor fella. |
Nick Chubb | @DEN | $7,300 | 23% | - | « | DEN: Allowed only 1x 100-yard rusher in 8 games. |
Christian McCaffrey | TEN | $10,000 | 28% | Yes | « | Hate betting against him, but prefer Cook at this price. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: The featured player in this week's edition of Tips and Picks, Jaylen Samuels, is primed for a productive day now that James Conner is trending towards being inactive on Sunday against the Colts. Samuels is a 'gadget' running back, who has lined up in Wildcat formations, as a tight end/slot receiver, and as a traditional running back when given opportunity in Mike Tomlin's offensive scheme. We should expect more of the same at Heinz Field against Indy, whose 29th-ranked DVOA defense offers appeal to running Samuels in an abundance of cash game and GPP lineups this weekend at a modest $4.0K salary. It probably goes without saying, but Christian McCaffrey is still in play for cash games despite his $10K salary because of his continually demonstrated high floor; if you can jam him into lineups without excessive opportunity cost at other positions, feel free. If CMC's salary, however, is too high, you might consider either Mark Walton at home against the Jets or Derrick Henry versus the Panthers in Charlotte. Walton absorbs the RB1 role that was vacated when Kenyan Drake was traded to Arizona earlier this week; his matchup against the Jets' 3rd-ranked DVOA rush defense is imposing, but the price-to-volume ratio is attractive enough to slot him into cash game lineups. Henry is typically a running back we want at home, but the Panthers' underrated secondary forces opponents to beat them via the run and they often succeed, as evidenced by the fact that they field the league's worst DVOA rush defense and allow 22% more production to the position than league-adjusted defenses.
GPP: Since taking over for Jay Gruden 3 weeks ago, Bill Callahan has fed Adrian Peterson with a steady supply of touches despite unfavorable gamescripts throughout that period of time. With Chris Thompson (toe) still sidelined, there is no reason to expect a deviation from what has become the norm in Washington, particularly with Dwayne Haskins mistake-prone self under center. Look for Callahan to lean on the future Hall-of-Famer against the Bills, whose defense is susceptible to the run (28th DVOA) than the pass (6th DVOA). In that same game, Devin Singletary stands out as a GPP sleeper, whose implied gamescript and trending snap counts favor substantial production at low cost and ownership; Frank Gore will steal a dozen touches from the rookie, but that reality is baked into his price and we would be remiss to ignore Singletary in this spot. In Oakland, feel free to snatch up shares of Josh Jacobs again at a short home favorite against the Lions. Jon Gruden has demonstrated that he will lean heavily on Jacobs, wherever possible and the Lions' 19th-ranked DVOA rush defense is less than daunting. Lastly, Dalvin Cook could legitimately run for 3+ touchdowns against the Chiefs, who are allowing 46% more production to running backs than league-adjusted defenses (worst in the league).
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Allen Robinson | @PHL | $6,800 | 9% | - | «««« | Outclasses burnable and smaller-sized PHL DBs. |
Zach Pascal | @PIT | $4,100 | 1% | Yes | «««« | Opporunity knocks: Indy's WR1 with T.Y. missing time. |
Keenan Allen | GB | $6,400 | 14% | Yes | «««« | Volume WR saw 10 targets despite limited snaps in last. |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | @LAC | $5,600 | 1% | - | ««« | Should get overflow targets via Hayward/Adams shadow. |
DK Metcalf | TB | $5,700 | 12% | - | ««« | Building a rapport w/Wilson of late. Big game imminent. |
D.J. Moore | TEN | $4,800 | 9% | Yes | ««« | Highest-targeted WR in league still w/out 100-yard game. |
Hunter Renfrow | DET | $4,100 | 2% | - | ««« | Gets plush WR-CB matchup in form of Justin Coleman. |
DeVante Parker | NYJ | $4,400 | 3% | - | ««« | Surprising 18 targets in Fitz's pair of starts. |
Sammy Watkins | MIN | $4,900 | 7% | - | ««« | Shorter ADoT suits him better for Moore than Tyreek. |
Mike Williams | GB | $4,600 | 10% | - | ««« | Been waiting for a blowup game for weeks--is this it? |
Kenny Golladay | @OAK | $7,700 | 12% | - | «« | 100 yards and/or a TD in 5 of 7 games. Plush spot @ OAK. |
Marvin Jones | @OAK | $6,000 | 8% | - | «« | Potential pivot vs. Golladay. Monitor updated ownership. |
Preston Williams | NYJ | $4,200 | 8% | - | «« | TD regression candidate vs. 21st pass DVOA defense. |
David Moore | TB | $3,100 | 3% | - | «« | GPP flyer & leverage vs. Lockett/Metcalf popularity. |
Tyler Lockett | TB | $7,500 | 17% | - | «« | Soft spot for big day. Only deterrent is high ownership. |
Demaryius Thomas | @MIA | $4,000 | 6% | - | «« | Underpriced for role in Jets offense. MIA matchup helps. |
Cole Beasley | WAS | $4,100 | 8% | - | «« | Tied with John Brown for targets in/out of redzone. |
Jarvis Landry | @DEN | $4,500 | 11% | Yes | «« | Easier target for Baker while OBJ deals with Harris. |
Curtis Samuel | TEN | $4,300 | 12% | - | «« | Similar notes to D.J. Moore (above). Upside is there. |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | IND | $6,300 | 8% | - | «« | No Conner could mean increased volume off big MNF game. |
Geronimo Allison | @LAC | $4,200 | 2% | - | «« | Should not lose snaps out of slot due to Adams return. |
Taylor Gabriel | @PHL | $3,900 | 2% | - | « | Speedster has big play potential vs. leaky secondary. |
John Brown | WAS | $6,100 | 8% | - | « | Cannot ignore in GPP formats. Implied gamescript hurts. |
Danny Amendola | @OAK | $4,700 | 6% | - | « | Tough to trust recent usage; also tough to ignore. |
Jamison Crowder | @MIA | $5,300 | 4% | - | « | Will get no better matchup in 2019. A bit overpriced. |
Tyreek Hill | MIN | $7,400 | 8% | - | « | Really needs Mahomes' big arm to deliver highest upside. |
Tyrell Williams | DET | $5,900 | 8% | - | « | Scored in every start thus far. Decent matchup vs. DET. |
Courtland Sutton | CLE | $5,800 | 10% | - | « | Tough to get excited with Brandon Allen under center. |
Diontae Johnson | IND | $4,500 | 2% | Yes | « | Hobbled backfield elevates healthy PIT skill players. |
Anthony Miller | @PHL | $3,700 | 3% | - | « | Willing to go back to well vs. shaky PHL secondary. |
Robby Anderson | @MIA | $5,500 | 6% | - | « | Floor is 2 points; ceiling is 25+ points. GPP-only. |
Davante Adams | @LAC | $7,100 | 8% | - | « | First game back vs. Casey Hayward shadow = limited. |
Adam Thielen | @KC | $7,800 | 7% | - | « | Down here primarily out of respect for Dalvin's outlook. |
Stefon Diggs | @KC | $7,600 | 8% | - | « | See notes on Adam Thielen (above). |
Odell Beckham | @DEN | $6,600 | 8% | - | « | Baker's struggles + matchup vs. Harris = low exposure. |
Chris Godwin | @SEA | $7,300 | 19% | - | « | Will have some, but not as much as the field. |
Mike Evans | @SEA | $7,200 | 21% | - | « | Like Godwin, going underweight & hoping for average day. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: On a week where Keenan Allen was iffy to play and was active on only 69% of his team's snaps, he still delivered respectable 7/53/0 stat line on 10 targets. This Sunday, Allen is expected to play his normal percentage (90+%) of snaps, so there is good reason to restore him to cash game viability against the Packers; he has compiled double-digit numbers in 5 of 8 games this season and merits cash game consideration based on that level of volume in this offense. In Denver, look to Jarvis Landry to deliver 3x his value against the Broncos due to overflow volume resulting from a Chris Harris shadow of Odell Beckham; Harris has allowed only 2.5 catches and ~ 40 receiving yards per game this season, which should afford additional opportunity to Landry as the path of least resistance for Baker Mayfield. With 31 targets over the past month, Landry is as highly targeted as OBJ on the Browns offense. In Pittsburgh, a pair of ~$4K receivers are both viable plays for cash games: Both Diontae Johnson ($4.5K) and Zach Pascal ($4.1K) stand to benefit from injuries to key players on their respective teams. Johnson has been trending upwards for several weeks now, as evidenced by his 5 or more catches in 3 of the Steelers' previous 4 games, and should see additional action with James Conner slated to be inactive on Sunday. Pascal becomes the de facto WR1 in the absence of T.Y. Hilton against the Steelers, whose stingy ground defense could force the Colts to throw the ball to move the markers; at $4.1K, he looks to be targeted 6-8 times and needs only ~ 12 DK points to deliver cash game value.
GPP: With no less than seven targets across every game this season, Allen Robinson brings volume and skill to your tournament rosters against the Eagles pass-funnel defense. At 6'3", Robinson is several inches taller than any of the Eagles' defensive backs, all of whom give up substantial talent to the underrated receiver. With an implied gamescript that predicts extra passing from the Bears, Robinson is the most likely beneficiary and is entirely underowned at his current projection of 8%. In southern California, do not ignore the Chargers' wide receivers, both of whom have not scored a receiving touchdown in six weeks--positive scoring regression is in store for both Keenan Allen (referenced above) and Mike Williams, and a double-stack with Philip Rivers in large-field tournaments is not out of question. As a deep GPP flyer who can differentiate your rosters, Hunter Renfrow is intriguing at only $4.1K and ~ 2% ownership. Renfrow has been hit-or-miss for much of the season, but his usage continues to be amongst the highest on the Raiders' receiving corps. On Sunday, Renfrow will get the vast majority of his snaps against Justin Coleman, who ranks 78th out of 81 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage this season; Coleman is being targeted once every 4.7 snaps while in coverage this season, which, when extrapolated, could mean 8+ targets for Renfrow against inferior coverage.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Eric Ebron | @PIT | $3,600 | 2% | - | «««« | Absence of T.Y. should further elevate Indy TE usage. |
Jack Doyle | @PIT | $3,000 | 2% | Yes | ««« | Preferred punt cash game option. Lots of 12 formations. |
Noah Fant | CLE | $3,000 | 4% | - | ««« | Expect young QB to dump passes to Fant under pressure. |
Cameron Brate | @SEA | $3,100 | 3% | - | ««« | Leverage play vs. Evans/Godwin. 6 targets in last. |
Jimmy Graham | @LAC | $4,300 | 3% | - | «« | Hghest-targeted GB receiver in redzone this season. |
Zach Ertz | CHI | $4,700 | 18% | Yes | «« | How long until he regresses to past form? We're waiting. |
Hunter Henry | GB | $6,000 | 11% | - | «« | Price is borderline obnoxious, but cannot ignore. |
Jonnu Smith | @CAR | $3,800 | 4% | - | « | Panthers' strong DB play could funnel passes to Jonnu. |
Vance McDonald | IND | $4,100 | 1% | - | « | Limited exposure to cover expanded usage w/out Conner. |
Dallas Goedert | CHI | $3,100 | 8% | - | « | Outscored Ertz in 4 of last 5 games. Cheap GPP flyer. |
Greg Olsen | TEN | $3,500 | 9% | - | « | Quiet since early-season. Age catching up to him? |
Travis Kelce | MIN | $6,900 | 10% | - | « | Minny been shutting down TEs. Moore at QB doesn't help. |
Darren Waller | DET | $6,300 | 23% | - | « | Ownership is too high for highly variable position. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: Not much to like at the tight end position this week, so the recommendations for cash games are limited. Despite continued disappointments, Zach Ertz tops the list due to his modest $4.7K salary and historical role in the Eagles' offense. Ertz is coming off back-to-back two-catch games and has only one touchdown on the season, but the Bears allow 25% more production to tight ends than league-adjusted defenses, which is enough to make Ertz a solid cash and GPP option. As a punt option, you could do worse than targeting Noah Fant at $3.0K against the Browns. Fant is coming off a 5/28/0 game that saw Joe Flacco injure his neck and will result in Brandon Allen taking his first NFL snap this Sunday. Young quarterbacks typically look to tight ends to avoid pressure in the NFL and if Allen follows suit, particularly with Courtland Sutton dealing with Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward on the perimeter, Fant would stand to benefit and could deliver solid value on his meager $3.0K salary.
GPP: Given the late-week announcement that T.Y. Hilton (calf) will miss several games, the Colts will redistribute his ~ 7 targets per game to other receivers. Of those options, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle both stand out for tournaments because of their respective size and redzone prowess. Ebron is coming off a season that saw Doyle miss significant time due to injuries and resulted in Ebron scoring a career-high 13 touchdowns; this season, Doyle has won the 'snap war,' but Ebron has outscored Doyle 4-to-1. Look for the Colts to run a slew of "12 formations" (1 running back, 2 tight ends), which should elevate production from both of these tight ends on a weekend where options at the position are limited. Elsewhere, give consideration to Cameron Brate as a leverage stack with Jameis Winston (see the Tips section above) against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 23% more production to tight ends than league-adjusted defenses. Lastly, if Travis Kelce stays above 10% ownership in Steve Buzzard's projections, consider fading him; the Vikings have faced some solid tight ends on teams that use them heavily (Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Austin Hooper) and have yet to yield a touchdown to the position. With Matt Moore throwing the ball, excitement around Kelce is further diminished; settle somewhere below the field.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Bills | WAS | $3,800 | 11% | Yes | «««« | Haskins is not NFL-ready. Excellent spot for BUF. |
Seahawks | TB | $3,600 | 5% | - | ««« | TB's turnstile O-line could have Jameis making mistakes. |
Browns | @DEN | $3,100 | 7% | - | ««« | Gets a QB taking his first NFL snap. Upside is there. |
Eagles | CHI | $3,000 | 9% | - | ««« | Philly's front seven could make Trubisky even worse. |
Broncos | CLE | $2,900 | 4% | - | «« | Mayfield has thrown an INT in every game this season. |
Titans | @CAR | $2,600 | 4% | - | «« | Cheap flyer vs. Kyle Allen. 7 takeaways in past month. |
Vikings | @KC | $2,700 | 3% | - | «« | A few % to hedge against a backstep from Matt Moore. |
Packers | @LAC | $3,400 | 2% | - | «« | Limited exposure. Contrarian option using respectable D. |
Jets | @MIA | $3,500 | 8% | - | « | Will be popular, but on the road & just an average D. |
Panthers | TEN | $2,800 | 11% | Yes | « | Home defense w/strong secondary against Tannehill. |
Redskins | @BUF | $1,800 | 8% | - | « | Complete punt option to enable flexibility elsewhere. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: Taking the Bills against Dwayne Haskins feels like the right decision for cash games this week. Haskins has thrown 22 NFL passes this season and 4 of those passes have gone to players wearing another team's jersey. As stated above, Bill Calahan is going to do what he can to avoid putting the ball in Haskins hands, but the Vegas gamescript argues that may be an impossibility given that the Bills are nearly 10-point favorites. Given the Bills' stellar secondary, led by TreDavious White, it would not be surprising to see Buffalo finish with double-digit fantasy production. If salary is limiting, rolling with the home-field Panthers against Ryan Tannehill is not a terrible option. To be fair, Tannehill has thrown 5 touchdowns versus only 1 interception in his pair of games this season, but the Panthers field an underrated secondary that could give Tannehill problems, particularly if the Panthers jump to an early lead.
GPP: The Seahawks boast one of the higher-pressure defensive units in the league and match up well against the Buccaneers, who do nothing to protect Jameis Winston (4.0 sacks allowed per game; 30th in NFL). With the infamous "12th man" present at Century Link Stadium, Winston is liable to make mistakes that lead to defensive fantasy production at lower ownership; this play also offers leverage against the higher ownership associated with Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin. Do not sleep on the Browns, who returned a few key players to their defense last week and will face Brandon Allen making his NFL debut this Sunday; Myles Garrett and company could force turnovers and/or defensive scores if they are able to pressure the young quarterback. Lastly, the Eagles are trending positively after a 31-13 road drubbing of the Bills last Sunday; at home against error-prone Mitchell Trubisky, they could easily deliver solid return on investment on their modest $3.0K salary.