For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LEVERAGING OWNERSHIP NUMBERS: Regular readers of this column know that I throw around the term "leverage" quite a bit when discussing tournament options. There are many ways to leverage different scenarios when creating GPP lineups, but one of my favorite things to do is to create leverage against high ownership by getting additional exposure to another player (or facet) of the same offense that would otherwise preclude success from the higher-owned player. A generic example is rostering a WR2 for a given team at 5% ownership when his WR1 stablemate is owned on 30% of rosters; if the WR2 scores a pair of touchdowns, it will be at the expense of the popular WR1 and accomplishes two goals: 1) a 'hit' on your wide receiver to help your chances at winning, and 2) immediately advances your roster over the 30% of teams that had the popular WR1 on their roster.
This week, there are multiple places where you can think about taking this approach. One example is leveraging Dalvin Cook's 25% ownership and instead rostering a Kirk Cousins to Adam Thielen (or Stefon Diggs) stack. If the Vikings score 25 points (as Vegas expects) and Cousins connects to Thielen on a pair of scores, there is virtually no way Cook can deliver 4x value on his hefty salary, which kills those rosters and elevates your own. A similar scenario could be envisioned for taking Alvin Kamara (6%) over Michael Thomas (21%) or Kyle Allen to Curtis Samuel (< 10%) over Christian McCaffrey (28%). The key is to understand when projected ownership is dramatically different from the likelihood of success (loosely defined by fantasy production divided by salary)--when that situation presents itself, you need to be able to execute on this strategy.
REVISED FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Tom Brady | @WAS | $6,500 | 5% | - | «««« | Highest team total on slate and only 5%? Yes, please. |
Andy Dalton | ARZ | $5,700 | 7% | - | «««« | Cinci receivers driving up exposure to Dalton. |
Lamar Jackson | @PIT | $7,100 | 8% | Yes | «««« | Poor BAL defense is helping LJ's fantasy numbers. |
Kirk Cousins | @NYG | $5,300 | 3% | - | ««« | Leverage play away from elevated Cook ownership. |
Joe Flacco | LAC | $4,700 | 2% | - | ««« | Chargers D is hurting. Nice price & plus matchup. |
Deshaun Watson | ATL | $6,700 | 12% | - | ««« | Excellent personnel matchups vs. ATL. Shootout? |
Chase Daniel | *LONDON* | $4,800 | 2% | - | ««« | Love the Chase-ARob stack for ~ $10K. |
Carson Wentz | NYJ | $6,100 | 10% | Yes | «« | Safe floor vs. NYJ. Fave GPP stack partner = Ertz. |
Matt Ryan | @HOU | $5,900 | 10% | - | «« | All 300+ yard games in 2019. 1st non-dome game, though. |
Aaron Rodgers | @DAL | $6,000 | 3% | - | «« | Loss of Adams hurts, but always in play. |
Kyle Allen | JAX | $5,100 | 2% | - | «« | Thudded to Earth in last. No Ramsey helps prospects. |
Philip Rivers | DEN | $5,800 | 4% | - | « | Small piece due to Chargers' high team total. |
Kyler Murray | @CIN | $6,300 | 7% | - | « | Trending in wrong direction of late. Lower than field. |
Jameis Winston | @NO | $6,200 | 7% | - | « | Don't believe he can put up 350+ in 3 straight weeks. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Our projections for quarterbacks have multiple options clustered near the top, in terms of sheer value (fantasy points divided by salary)--the list includes Mason Rudolph, Chase Daniel, Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, and Carson Wentz. Of those players, only Jackson and Wentz are safe enough for cash game play because the others all have a scenario where they could fail to deliver on their respective salaries. With Rudolph, we saw the Steelers employ a Wildcat formation on Monday Night Football, which can take away opportunity for him; with Chase Daniel, he plays in London, where the 5-hour time difference seems to affect different players at varying levels and his team is a 5-point favorite, which could also result in lesser opportunity if the Bears jump to an early lead (plus, he's Chase Daniel!); as for Matt Ryan, he enters this week with 300+ passing yards in every game this season, but Ryan historically underperforms on the road and one has to suspect that negative regression is forthcoming for the veteran quarterback. This leaves a pair of solid options in Lamar Jackson and Carson Wentz for cash games. Jackson comes at a premium price, but he has 33 carries over the past 3 games that have amounted to over 30+ DK points without considering points from passing; he gets a solid matchup against the Steelers, who shored up their secondary by adding Minkah Fitzpatrick a few weeks ago, but Jackson's speed will keep the Steelers honest and expose holes in that flawed secondary. In Philadelphia, the Eagles host the Jets off their bye week. The Birds have a slew of receiving options at different positions, which keeps opposing defenses guessing as to the next play, a scenario that bodes well for Carson Wentz, particularly when seeing that the Jets allowed back-to-back 300-yard passers entering this contest.
GPP: No team on the Week #5 main slate has a higher implied Vegas team total than the New England Patriots. Despite this fact, every Patriot player is entering Sunday with a projected ownership number of < 10%, including Tom Brady. It is entirely plausible that Sony Michel records another one of his three-touchdown performances against the Redskins in a blowout win, but one thing that we have learned about the Patriots is that they will surprise their opponents at every turn. Brady could very well connect with James White, Julian Edelman, and/or Josh Gordon for touchdowns at low crowd exposure and elevate your roster to the top of the ranks; at their respective salaries and expected team scoring, the Redskins do not even have to put points on the board to make that vision a reality. In Cincinnati, do not sleep on all of the skill players against the Cardinals dreadful defense. Through a month of football, the Cardinals have allowed 115 points to be scored against them (29th in NFL) and they have yielded the 3rd most fantasy points to the quarterback position. As you read further, you will see that my player pool includes quite a bit of Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Eifert (as well as some Auden Tate), all of which is driving up my exposure to Andy Dalton at only $5.7K. Dalton had a pair of 300+ games to start off the year before running into a stellar Buffalo defense in Week #3 and a surprise in Pittsburgh last Monday night; this is a prime rebound spot against Arizona traveling east for an early-start game. And in conjunction with the Tips section of this article, I will be going overweight on Kirk Cousins this week by pairing him with either Stefon Diggs and/or Adam Thielen in GPP formats. This will allow me to get away from the massive ownership of Dalvin Cook (currently on a quarter of GPP rosters) and potentially bypass those entrants in tournaments, assuming the Vikings deliver on the ~ 25 points that Vegas projects them to score.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Leonard Fournette | @CAR | $6,400 | 18% | Yes | «««« | Every-down back bound for positive scoring regression. |
Joe Mixon | ARZ | $6,100 | 11% | Yes | «««« | Do not understand the single-digit ownership vs. ARZ? |
Aaron Jones | @DAL | $5,900 | 12% | - | «««« | Williams concussion makes him a full-time RB. |
Jaylen Samuels | BAL | $4,100 | 4% | - | «««« | After MNF display, suspect PIT will continue to use him. |
Jordan Howard | NYJ | $5,100 | 2% | - | ««« | 4 TDs in past 2 games, 2% owned, 14-point faves. |
Derrick Henry | BUF | $6,000 | 6% | - | ««« | Expect Titans to feed him against run-funnel defense. |
Sony Michel | @WAS | $5,500 | 2% | - | ««« | Carries are always there when NE wins big. |
Tarik Cohen | *LONDON* | $4,800 | 1% | - | «« | Should absorb more work w/Gabriel declared out. |
David Montgomery | *LONDON* | $5,200 | 12% | Yes | «« | Team #Montgomery. See the PowerGrid for details. |
Ezekiel Elliott | GB | $8,300 | 24% | - | «« | Bounce-back spot after 18/35/1 game vs. NO. |
James Conner | BAL | $6,200 | 4% | - | «« | Chubb throttled this BAL defense last Sunday. |
Christian McCaffrey | JAX | $8,700 | 28% | Yes | «« | Pacing towards records. Price/ownership hurt, though. |
Carlos Hyde | ATL | $4,300 | 3% | - | «« | One-dimensional RB, but cheap and decent home fave. |
David Johnson | @CIN | $7,500 | 19% | - | «« | Breakout spot vs. friendliest RB defense (FPs/game). |
Ronald Jones II II | @NO | $4,600 | 2% | - | « | Snaps trending in his favor. Tougher matchup. |
Chris Thompson | NE | $4,600 | 3% | - | « | Expect Colt McCoy to dump off as much as possible. |
Alvin Kamara | TB | $8,600 | 10% | - | « | Limited upside w/out Brees. Bucs are stout up front. |
James White | @WAS | $5,000 | 6% | - | « | 10 targets in last. Less involved in potential blowout. |
Devonta Freeman | @HOU | $5,300 | 8% | - | « | Still scoreless despite opportunity. Worth a few darts. |
Phillip Lindsay | @LAC | $4,900 | 10% | - | « | Split with Freeman hurts value. Gamscript-dependent. |
LeVeon Bell | @PHL | $6,800 | 10% | - | « | Jets cannot sustain drives with Falk. Limited piece. |
Mark Ingram | @PIT | $6,300 | 4% | - | « | Price is daunting for a RB that doesn't catch passes. |
Austin Ekeler | DEN | $6,700 | 11% | « | Return of MG3 hurts upside. Stil in play, though. | |
Dalvin Cook | @NYG | $8,400 | 24% | - | « | Hedging against to get more of Minny passing game. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: At the top end of the salary spectrum, Christian McCaffrey must be considered for 50/50's and double-ups because of his exorbitant role in the Panthers offense. To this point in the season, CMC leads the league in touches and total yardage despite the opposing team knowing that is what the Panthers' gameplan will entail. He matches up against a Jags defense that has been stingy up front, but has not faced a back of McCaffrey's stature yet; thus, there is little reason to get away from CMC in cash game formats, where he could easily be the most popular player at his position. Dropping down the ranks a bit, you should consider Leonard Fournette in that same game. Fournette is far from a consistent player, but his opportunity and matchup against the Panthers is too much to dismiss. Carolina is allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs, while Fournette is coming off a game that saw him touch the ball a whopping 31 times. His every-down status in this offense means that he will be active if the Jags fall behind or if they build a lead, which confers confidence for cash games where opportunity is everything. Elsewhere, both David Montgomery and Joe Mixon are mid-level options that should see plenty of action based on Vegas odds that have their respective teams winning by a decent margin on Sunday. Montgomery should get fed plenty of carries with Chase Daniel under center against the lowly Raiders; likewise, Mixon is nearly a touchdown-favorite at home against the Cardinals, who have allowed back-to-back 100+ yard rushers over their last two contests.
GPP: There are two viable GPP running backs in play in Big D on Sunday. Ezekiel Elliott faces off against a Packers defense that has been stingy against passers, while bleeding yardage to the running back positions (second-most in the NFL); All-Pro LT Tyron Smith (ankle) will miss this game, however, which drops Elliott to a lower ranking in the TnP chart. On the opposite side of the field, Aaron Jones will get all the action he can handle with Jamaal Williams (concussion) watching from the sidelines. Jones is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and should be leaned on heavily in the absence of Davante Adams (toe). Somewhat to my surprise, Jaylen Samuels rated high in my model after a stellar performance on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. Samuels was featured in Wildcat formations, but also led the team in targets (and redzone targets) as the Steelers continue to test their offense without Ben Roethlisberger under center. He is affordable at only $4.1K and an intriguing GPP option against a defense that allowed Nick Chubb to do whatever he pleased last week in Baltimore. In Nashville, Derrick Henry is poised to be the focal point of the Titans offense as they look to grind out a home win against a Bills defense that only allowed 10 offensive points to the Patriots last Sunday. The Bills are a formidable opponent, but Henry is a large, speedy, almost freakish man that could wear down this defensive front for a pair of scores at an affordable price and reasonable ownership.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Marquise Brown | @PIT | $5,700 | 8% | - | «««« | Opportunity has been there, numbers haven't. Regression. |
Allen Robinson | *LONDON* | $5,600 | 7% | Yes | «««« | Similar story to Marquise (above). Will score this week. |
Josh Gordon | @WAS | $6,100 | 3% | - | «««« | All NE WRs are in play. Upside and low ownership. |
DeAndre Hopkins | ATL | $7,800 | 20% | - | «««« | Going back to the well vs. ATL. Too good to keep down. |
Stefon Diggs | @NYG | $6,200 | 3% | - | ««« | Squeaky wheel narrative: Diggs/Thielen eat on Sunday. |
Julian Edelman | @WAS | $6,300 | 8% | - | ««« | See notes on Josh Gordon (above). Volume & upside. |
Tyler Boyd | ARZ | $6,500 | 12% | - | ««« | Leverage away from Auden Tate's lofty ownership. |
Calvin Ridley | @HOU | $4,900 | 8% | - | ««« | Not buying the Sanu hype--Ridley has far more upside. |
Will Fuller | ATL | $4,500 | 14% | - | ««« | Airyards = scoring, but Fuller hasn't yet scored. Soon. |
Curtis Samuel | JAX | $4,500 | 6% | Yes | «« | Benefits from Jalen Ramsey quitting on the Jags. |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | BAL | $6,400 | 3% | - | «« | If he does nothing against BAL fade until Ben is back. |
Courtland Sutton | @LAC | $4,900 | 8% | Yes | «« | Hayward injury helps prospects. Coming into his own. |
Michael Thomas | TB | $6,600 | 21% | Yes | «« | NO is not same w/out Brees, but $6.6K is too cheap. |
KeeSean Johnson | @CIN | $3,500 | 7% | - | «« | Injuries to Kirk/Byrd increase snaps and overall upside. |
Alshon Jeffery | NYJ | $5,900 | 7% | - | «« | Looked good in return. Plus personnel matchup. |
Julio Jones | @HOU | $7,700 | 17% | - | «« | Prefer discount in price/ownership w/Ridley. |
Andy Isabella | @CIN | $3,200 | 1% | - | «« | GPP differentiator. Gets nod after Kirk/Byrd injuries. |
Adam Thielen | @NYG | $6,700 | 8% | - | «« | Just missed 3-stars. Leverage vs. Cook's popularity. |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | @DAL | $5,600 | 7% | - | « | Adams being out helps, but tough matchup vs. DAL. |
Diontae Johnson | BAL | $4,400 | 2% | - | « | Seems to have a rapport with Rudolph. Small piece. |
Robby Anderson | @PHL | $4,500 | 3% | - | « | Gamescript selection vs. shaky secondary. |
Golden Tate | MIN | $4,600 | 3% | - | « | Undefined role with NYG, but should be heavily used. |
Jamison Crowder | @PHL | $4,300 | 3% | - | « | Similar comments to Robbie Anderson (above). Volume. |
TreQuan Smith | TB | $3,700 | 1% | - | « | Not a sexy pick, but matchup and price are attractive. |
Emmanuel Sanders | @LAC | $5,100 | 8% | - | « | Arguably should be higher here, but prefer Sutton more. |
Amari Cooper | GB | $6,800 | 10% | - | « | Slight fade against defense that favors RB production. |
Mike Evans | @NO | $7,100 | 10% | - | « | Hit-or-miss vs. Marshon coverage. Prefer other WRs. |
Larry Fitzgerald | @CIN | $6,000 | 15% | - | « | Ownership feels too high compared to other ARZ WRs. |
Keenan Allen | DEN | $7,300 | 18% | - | « | Tough personnel matchup vs. Roby. Fading the field here. |
Auden Tate | ARZ | $3,500 | 24% | Yes | « | Unproven WR at 25%. I understand why, but will fade. |
Chris Godwin | @NO | $6,900 | 15% | - | « | Fade candidate coming off 2-TD performance. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: Michael Thomas is about $1K too cheap (again) this week and his ownership across DFS formats will reflect that reality. Despite substandard quarterback play following Drew Brees' injury, Thomas is averaging nearly 3x this week's salary and should have no issues besting the Bucs' defensive backs in this matchup. The other chalk option at the wide receiver position will be a discounted Auden Tate, who took over the WR2 role for the Bengals when John Ross went to injured reserve with a shoulder injury last week. At 6'5", Tate is a big redzone receiver, but his 4.7-second 40-yard speed does not afford him an ability to get distance from a defender in coverage, which may be less of a concern against the Patrick Peterson-less Cardinals defensive backfield. That said, Tate is an acceptable option for cash games, but his ~ 25% ownership in tournament formats makes him an easy fade when Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Eifert could easily account for 90% of Cinci's offense. The remainder of cash game options are in the middle-tier of salary range and include Allen Robinson ($5.6K), Curtis Samuel ($4.5K), and Courtland Sutton ($4.9K). Each option continues to be heavily targeted in their respective offenses and should deliver (or exceed) 3x value on their salaries. Of the trio, Robinson is also an excellent tournament option, as he is slated for positive scoring regression and is far more talented than the Raiders' cornerbacks.
GPP: Two strong wide receiver plays for tournaments in Week #5 include Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. First, Brown's story is akin to Allen Robinson in that he is (by far) the best receiver on his team, but has not scored despite extensive opportunity over the past 3-4 weeks. Brown's usage in the offense is only trending upwards and he makes a prime positive-regression candidate to pair alongside Lamar Jackson in a gamestack with either James Conner or Jaylen Samuels on Sunday. Next, Nuk Hopkins was called out in this same spot last week when I referenced how he had faced a gauntlet of excellent coverage over the first three weeks of the season. What I failed to appreciate prior to that recommendation was just how good Panthers' DB James Bradberry had become in a short time in the league; Bradberry is shutting down legitimate NFL receivers and is currently ProFootballFocus' #3-rated cornerback entering Week #5. This week, expect the Texans to work Hopkins around the solid, but stationary, Desmond Trufant such that Nuk gets looks against Isaiah Oliver and Damontae Kazee, both of whom has zero chance of containing the superstar receiver in a possible shootout against the Falcons. Other plus plays at the position include Tyler Boyd in the same game as Auden Tate at half the ownership; Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon in plus matchups against the 29th-ranked DVOA pass defense; and either Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen against the Giants, who are allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to their position.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Zach Ertz | NYJ | $6,000 | 14% | - | «««« | Big game expected. Limited alternative options at TE. |
Jimmy Graham | @DAL | $4,300 | 6% | - | ««« | Rodgers has been eyeing him more of late. No Adams. |
Jeremy Sprinkle | NE | $2,500 | 1% | - | ««« | Salary-saver. GPP option due to QB and gamescript. |
Evan Engram | MIN | $5,800 | 9% | - | ««« | In play, but return of Tate probably hurts upside. |
Darren Waller | *LONDON* | $5,000 | 12% | Yes | ««« | Volume monster has almost 10 targets per game. |
Dawson Knox | @TEN | $3,100 | 3% | - | «« | Only Bill in my player pool. GPP sleeper for MillyMaker. |
Tyler Eifert | ARZ | $3,300 | 13% | Yes | «« | Prefer him at $200 from Tate at half the ownership. |
Jared Cook | TB | $3,400 | 1% | - | «« | Small piece at otherwise limited position for Week #5. |
Greg Olsen | JAX | $4,000 | 9% | - | « | Disappointed in last, but definitely in play for GPPs. |
Austin Hooper | @HOU | $4,500 | 13% | - | « | Consistent, but HOU is stifling TEs in 2019. |
Mark Andrews | @PIT | $4,800 | 12% | - | « | If confirmed healthy on Sunday, bump him a bit. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: Probably the smallest tight end player pool in recent memory, there simply are not a lot of viable options at the position this week. For cash games, you can stick with Darren Waller for yet another week, as Tyrell Williams did not practice all week and Derek Carr seems to be laser-focused on Waller over the past few weeks. The gamescript and volume should be in his favor, so paying the $5.0K premium for Waller is fairly safe on a slate that does not feature Travis Kelce or George Kittle. As a less pricey option, Tyler Eifert will be a crowd favorite against a Cardinals defense that is allowing nearly 30 DK points per game to his position. Eifert is not a shoo-in to deliver cash or GPP value, but his modest salary affords you the ability to pay up at less volatile positions, so the decision to lock him into cash game rosters is not illogical, particularly with John Ross' recent injury and A.J. Green still watching from the sidelines.
GPP: For tournament play, I will be heavily on Zach Ertz this weekend. At present, he is the highest-projected tight end (ownership) on DraftKings and the only way to gain leverage over the field is to go overweight on those numbers. The Jets allow the least fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but the statistic is misleading because they have faced a collection of no-names at the position including Tommy Sweeney, Demetrius Harris, and Ryan Izzo. Meanwhile, Ertz is leading his team in targets, but somehow has not managed to find the endzone yet this season; coming off back-to-back seasons that saw him average a touchdown in every other game, he is destined for positive scoring regression. Elsewhere, Jimmy Graham should continue to garner attention from Aaron Rodgers while Davante Adams (toe) misses time; Rodgers has recently gone on record that he needs to do more to get the ball in Graham's hands. As low-owned, minimal salary GPP flyers, take a look at Dawson Knox and/or Jeremy Sprinkle, both of whom bring an ability to score a touchdown at low salaries. Knox matches up against a Titans defense that has allowed 100 receiving yards or a touchdown to opposing tight ends in every game this season, while Sprinkle absorbs a gamescript- and injury-driven role for the Redskins with a quarterback that is prone to underneath pass attempts.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Eagles | NYJ | $3,700 | 8% | Yes | «««« | Seconday is bad, but can Falk exploit it? |
Bils | @TEN | $3,100 | 3% | - | «««« | One of the best defenses in league vs. Mariota. |
Bears | *LONDON* | $3,800 | 9% | - | «««« | Suspect this is a blowout in the making. |
Packers | @DAL | $2,400 | 1% | - | ««« | Loss of Tyron Smith hurts Dallas quite a bit. |
Patriots | @WAS | $4,300 | 11% | Yes | ««« | Upside is there, but will be underweight on field. |
Vikings | @NYG | $3,200 | 6% | - | ««« | Take the solid defense against the young QB. |
Texans | ATL | $3,300 | 2% | - | ««« | HOU generates pressure. Ryan not inside dome for once. |
Saints | TB | $3,400 | 2% | - | «« | Jameis will not put up 380+ yards for 3 straight weeks. |
Titans | BUF | $3,000 | 9% | - | «« | Defensive battle with two bad QBs. Get some. |
Broncos | @LAC | $2,900 | 1% | - | «« | Small piece for GPP diversity across player portfolio. |
Buccaneers | @NO | $2,200 | 4% | - | «« | Averaging double-digit FPs and only $2.2K. |
Cowboys | GB | $2,800 | 2% | - | « | Excellent defense at only 2% vs. team w/out best WR. |
Ravens | @PIT | $3,600 | 2% | - | « | Defense is not good, but neither is Mason Rudolph. |
Jaguars | @CAR | $3,000 | 2% | - | « | Different D w/out J.Ramsey, but Kyle Allen is no threat. |
Chargers | DEN | $2,700 | 6% | - | « | Hobbled defense at home vs. Joe Flacco. |
Panthers | JAX | $2,600 | 13% | Yes | « | Price is right, but high ownership merits a fade. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: If you have the money to spend, go ahead and roll with the Patriots as the priciest option on the board against the hapless Redskins. The Pats defense has yet to score less than double-digit points in a game and their matchup against a winless team on its third-string quarterback is about as safe a play as one could conjure up for cash games. In GPPs, however, the recommendation is to typically try to diversify your lineups at the defense position because winning GPP lineups tend to have defenses that scored touchdowns that given day; while the Patriots have done this in half their games this year, it is folly to expect that trend to continue, as I explained on this week's episode of the PowerGrid. A notch below the Patriots, you can grab a heavily favored Eagles defense at home against Luke Falk and the Jets, who have only one offensive touchdown on the entire season. And if salary is limited, there are worse options than Carolina ($2.6K) at home against Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars; for tournament play, there are better options than the Panthers, but they should suffice for cash game formats at their respective price point.
GPP: In tournament formats, try to gain exposure to a variety of team defenses to maximize the likelihood that you hit on one that scores a defensive touchdown. Generally speaking, I would advise you to never have more than 20% of any defense in a given week across your entire GPP player portfolio due to the extreme volatility of the position. This week, both the Bills and Bears are intriguing GPP plays at the top of my list. The Bills take on the Titans, who can implode behind Marcus Mariota at any given point in a game and the Bears have the talent to make a long trip to London even longer for Derek Carr and the Raiders. Elsewhere, if you believe the Packers can jump to an early lead in Dallas, their secondary should be good enough to put Dak Prescott in an uncomfortable position to make plays late in the game. Likewise, the Texans are a contrarian option at home against a red-hot Matt Ryan who has not yet faced a defense with an ability to get to the quarterback in the fashion that J.J. Watt and company can.