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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LEVERAGING INFORMATION--THE SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PARADOX: Five years ago, the various DFS sites ran contests that largely spanned through Monday Night Football. As the sites evolved, they quickly realized that creating "churn" by offering multiple slates led to increased revenue, which is why we have Thursday-Monday, Sunday-early, Sunday late-only, Sunday early/late, Sunday night-Monday night, Monday-Thursday, etc., slates in today's DFS world. The majority of content to support those contests, including this article, is focused on the Sunday main slate (1 PM & 4 PM EST games), which means there is typically less public attention on those alternative games (Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights).
Why is this important? Well, for DraftKings and FanDuel, it isn't...but for Yahoo and FantasyDraft, where they still include the Sunday night game as part of their main slate, I have (anecdotally) found that ownership in that night game is lower than it should be based on the matchups, upside, and overall profitability. This week, the Cowboys will travel to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that nobody cares about now that Drew Brees is nursing a thumb injury. But that game has a slew of fantasy attraction and you can get a leg-up on your competition by backloading a lot of your tournament lineups with players from that game at reasonable, if not low, ownership levels. At quick glance, both Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Alvin Kamara stand out as stellar GPP options on less than 10% of rosters on FantasyDraft; Michael Thomas is even lower at less than 2%, in a game that should favor the Saints' passing attack. Thus, do not be afraid to dabble beyond DraftKings to take advantage of the lack of DFS coverage on this (and other) non-main slate game.
REVISED FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Jared Goff | TB | $6,300 | 5% | - | «««« | QBs have thrown for 300+ in last 2 games vs. TB. |
Case Keenum | @NYG | $4,900 | 2% | - | ««« | Potential shootout with multiple cheap WR options. |
Philip Rivers | @MIA | $6,200 | 5% | - | ««« | MIA: Allowed 3 or more TDs to all QBs faced. |
Kyle Allen | @HOU | $5,200 | 2% | - | ««« | Solid in last. HOU D allows 6th most FPs to QB. |
Kyler Murray | SEA | $6,000 | 6% | - | «« | Volume: 40+ attempts in every NFL start. |
Russell Wilson | @ARZ | $6,100 | 14% | Yes | «« | ARZ secondary is horrid w/out Peterson. Crowd fave. |
Patrick Mahomes II | @DET | $7,500 | 11% | Yes | «« | Lions could go run-heavy to minimize KC offense. |
Deshaun Watson | CAR | $6,400 | 7% | - | «« | 30+ FPs in 2 of first 3 games = upside. |
Matt Ryan | TEN | $5,900 | 4% | - | «« | Overlooked? Only concern is TEN slowing game down. |
Josh Allen | NE | $5,600 | 1% | - | «« | Small piece (even with field). Pair with Beasley. |
Matthew Stafford | KC | $5,500 | 7% | - | «« | Plus implied gamescript, but Bevell favors the run. |
Lamar Jackson | CLE | $6,900 | 6% | Yes | « | Browns have to keep it close for Lamar to payoff. |
Daniel Jones | WAS | $5,300 | 12% | Yes | « | Stellar in debut. 12% is a bit much for my liking. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: He is making my job easy, but Patrick Mahomes II has scored 30+ DK points in every game this season, a 4x multiplier on this week's $7.5K salary. He seems to do whatever he pleases, whenever he pleases on the field and brings the highest floor/upside of any quarterback on this (and every) DFS slate. If you can afford him, slot him in and move on. If the opportunity cost is too high to roster Mahomes because the rest of your roster is uncomfortably risky, take a look at Russell Wilson at a $1.4K savings. Wilson gets the third-most generous defense in the league to his position, one that has allowed no less than 25 DK points to every quarterback they have faced this season. At the lower end of the scale, rolling with Daniel Jones in his second career start in cash formats might induce angst, but he displayed maturity (and speed) against the Buccaneers, a better defense than he will face this Sunday.
GPP: Jared Goff tops the list of tournament quarterbacks this week. The Rams boast the second-highest team total on the Vegas boards and have a running back in Todd Gurley that they limit continue to limit. Goff is reasonably priced, has a bevy of receivers at his disposal, and faces a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed back-to-back 300-yard games to quarterbacks, including Daniel Jones' NFL debut and (a horribly inaccurate) Cam Newton. In the Meadowlands, you can consider both Case Keenum and the aforementioned Daniel Jones, both of whom are inexpensive and face a porous defense on the other side of their respective lines of scrimmage. Keenum is the preferred play because he will be owned at a fraction of the rate of Jones and he can easily be paired with a series of cheap receivers, all of whom can deliver 4x value on their respective salaries. In both cases (Keenum or Jones), feel free to "run it back" with a receiver (or running back) on the opposite team to complete the gamestack because this one could be a barnburner. Lastly, feel free to leverage Austin Ekeler's massive ownership by taking his quarterback, Philip Rivers, who is projected to be on only 5% of lineups despite averaging over 300 passing yards per game this season. The caveat with Rivers is that stacking him is largely limited to either Keenan Allen at ownership levels similar to Ekeler or Dontrelle Inman, whose coverage situation (Xavier Howard) is concerning.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
LeSean McCoy | @DET | $5,600 | 4% | - | «««« | Should regain RB1 role in potent offense at low %. |
David Montgomery | MIN | $5,300 | 2% | - | «««« | Path to Bears' win is paved with heavy usage. |
Kerryon Johnson | KC | $5,400 | 25% | Yes | «««« | Focal point of offense. KC allowing 114 rush yards/game. |
Nick Chubb | @BAL | $6,400 | 6% | - | ««« | Playing almost every snap. 20+ touches in all contests. |
Chris Thompson | @NYG | $4,500 | 5% | Yes | ««« | Quietly consistent. Needs TD to deliver in GPP formats. |
Mark Ingram | CLE | $6,600 | 6% | - | ««« | Surprised he's not more popular off 3-TD effort in last. |
Rex Burkhead | @BUF | $4,400 | 2% | Yes | ««« | Loss of Develin = RB1 role for Burkhead vs. MIA. Again? |
Adrian Peterson | @NYG | $4,300 | 1% | - | ««« | Still has gas in the tank vs. unimposing NYG front. |
Marlon Mack | OAK | $6,100 | 14% | Yes | ««« | Should see 20+ touches as big home favorite. |
Kenyan Drake | LAC | $4,200 | 2% | - | «« | Active part of passing game. Price & % are OK for GPPs. |
Leonard Fournette | @DEN | $6,000 | 17% | Yes | «« | Underperformer saw 99% of snaps in last two games. |
Chris Carson | @ARZ | $5,700 | 11% | - | «« | Great matchup, but one fumble could result in benching. |
Devonta Freeman | TEN | $5,000 | 7% | - | « | Overdue for a TD. Drawback is TEN's slow play. |
Todd Gurley | TB | $7,000 | 3% | - | « | It's sad to watch Gurley devolve. TB = 1st vs. RBs. |
Phillip Lindsay | JAX | $5,200 | 5% | - | « | Timeshare with Freeman hurts upside. |
Royce Freeman | JAX | $4,800 | 1% | - | « | See notes on Lindsay (above). |
Dalvin Cook | @CHI | $8,300 | 9% | - | « | NFL's RB1 meets his match this week. Fade at this price. |
Derrick Henry | @ATL | $6,300 | 15% | - | « | Only part of TEN offense that is worth consideration. |
Austin Ekeler | @MIA | $8,000 | 24% | - | « | Gut feeling that he misses GPP value at high ownership. |
David Johnson | SEA | $6,800 | 20% | - | « | ARZ spreading ball around more this year. Short fade. |
Wayne Gallman | WAS | $4,600 | 29% | - | « | 30% is too high. Pivot to Burkhead, Thompson, etc. |
Christian McCaffrey | @HOU | $8,800 | 36% | - | « | Hate fading him, but needs 2 TDs to justify price & %. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: There is not a lot to love about the running back position on the main slate this week. Saquon Barkley is injured, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara are playing in the Sunday night game, and Dalvin Cook is playing the league's toughest defensive front in Chicago. That unfortunate combination leaves behind one or two attractive, but pricey, option(s) and a mismatch of less consistent possibilities for cash games. Starting at the top, Austin Ekeler appears to be in line for extensive action for at least one more week while we await the return of Melvin Gordon from his month-long holdout. The matchup could not be better for Ekeler, as he faces the Dolphins' 30th-ranked rush defense (FPs/game allowed) and it appears that Justin Jackson (foot), Mike Williams (back), and Travis Benjamin (quad) could all miss this game, which means plenty of action for the electric running back. In the middle-tier, Kerryon Johnson ($5.4K) and Marlon Mack ($6.1K) are possible cash game options at home as the focal pieces in their respective offenses. Johnson has a gamescript that likely works against him, but Mark Ingram proved last week (38.5 DK points) that a non-pass-catching running back can perform just fine against the Chiefs. Mack, however, has an excellent implied gamescript against the Raiders and gets a boost if T.Y. Hilton (quad) does not play. At the lower end of the salary scale, Rex Burkhead and Chris Thompson are both viable salary-saving options given their pass-catching roles and DraftKings' full-PPR scoring format.
GPP: Coming off a game that saw LeSean McCoy look surprisingly strong and finish with a pair of touchdowns, it is unclear why the DFS world is not embracing him against the Lions, who have yet to contain a pass-catching running back in 2019. McCoy practiced fully on Thursday and Friday, a clear indication that he is all-systems-go on Sunday as a touchdown favorite on the team with the highest-implied team total on the main slate. The path to finishing atop the leaderboard in a large-field GPP is nailing down a sub-5%-owned player (in addition to the rest of your roster). While there are plenty of options, David Montgomery is a player who can provide that level of differentiation because he is projected to be on 2% of rosters at home against the Vikings. The reason you should give him a second-look is because the Bears want to win on the heels of their running back and defense, not on Mitchell Trubisky's arm. Over the past 2 weeks, Montgomery has 35 touches (17.5 per game) and appears to be locked-in as the RB1 in this offense; as short home-favorites against the Vikings, the Bears should feed the rookie early and often--if he stumbles into the endzone at his salary and projected ownership, he's a solid GPP play at a position loaded with potential traps this week. Regarding some of the notable one-star running backs, I am fading Wayne Gallman's massive ownership because there is a possibility that Daniel Jones vultures running touchdowns inside the 5-yard line and I am reluctantly going underweight on Christian McCaffrey because of my stance(s) on players in the Panther passing game this week. Both of those decisions could backfire, but that's the nature of GPP game strategy.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
DeAndre Hopkins | CAR | $7,700 | 12% | - | «««« | Predicting a breakout day. Love all facets of this play. |
Robert Woods | @MIA | $6,100 | 5% | - | «««« | Positive regression candidate. Perfect matchup. |
Allen Robinson | MIN | $5,600 | 2% | - | «««« | Legit $5.6K WR1 at 2%? MIN DBs are not *that* good. |
Courtland Sutton | JAX | $4,600 | 1% | - | «««« | Ramsey's absence will be evident in Jags secondary. |
Calvin Ridley | TEN | $5,000 | 2% | - | «««« | Game strategy play: Salary savings and Julio at 15%. |
Brandin Cooks | @MIA | $6,200 | 6% | - | ««« | Big play receiver could get behind slow Bucs DBs. |
Sammy Watkins | @DET | $6,700 | 8% | - | ««« | Reasonable price, ownership, & matchup for WR1. |
Paul Richardson Jr | @NYG | $3,700 | 4% | - | ««« | Leverage play away from crowd fave (McLaurin). |
Curtis Samuel | @HOU | $4,600 | 7% | - | ««« | Texans have no answer for his speed. Fair price. |
DK Metcalf | @ARZ | $4,800 | 9% | - | ««« | Lockett getting all the love, but Metcalf can deliver. |
KeeSean Johnson | SEA | $3,200 | 1% | - | ««« | Missing Byrd should elevate snap count. Plus gamescript. |
Marquise Brown | CLE | $5,800 | 8% | - | ««« | Quiet in last two, but volume has been there. Good spot. |
Keenan Allen | @MIA | $7,600 | 35% | Yes | «« | Hate the ownership, but LAC is banged up everywhere. |
Tyler Lockett | @ARZ | $6,300 | 24% | Yes | «« | Salary is too low. Tough fade. Slightly under field %. |
Sterling Shepard | WAS | $5,800 | 7% | - | «« | Solid return in last after concussion. Plus matchup. |
Jarvis Landry | @BAL | $5,100 | 1% | - | «« | Heavily targeted. Positive regression in store. |
Cooper Kupp | @MIA | $6,500 | 9% | - | «« | Most targeted Rams' WR. Off back-to-back big games. |
Stefon Diggs | @CHI | $5,500 | 2% | - | «« | Talent > perceived matchup. Easy to go above 2%. |
Emmanuel Sanders | JAX | $4,900 | 2% | - | «« | One bad game = low ownership. Take advantage. |
Odell Beckham | @BAL | $7,300 | 7% | - | «« | Plus matchup. Drawback is Mayfield's ability. |
D.J. Moore | @HOU | $5,600 | 7% | - | «« | Read comments on Curtis Samuel (above). |
Kenny Stills | CAR | $4,200 | 1% | - | «« | Taking Coutee's job from slot. Large-field GPP sleeper. |
Dede Westbrook | @DEN | $5,500 | 1% | - | « | Avoids only legit DEN DB. Targets are there w/Minshew. |
Mecole Hardman | @DET | $5,100 | 9% | - | « | Has to do a lot with a little. 4th option on offense. |
Adam Thielen | @CHI | $6,600 | 2% | - | « | Decent size advantage over Skrine. Pace is factor. |
Marvin Jones | KC | $5,400 | 5% | - | « | Pivot possibility from Golladay's big ownership. |
Kenny Golladay | KC | $5,900 | 19% | Yes | « | Heavy passing is not Detroit's path to victory. |
Hunter Renfrow | @IND | $3,800 | 1% | - | « | WR2 option in plus gamescript. Roster differentiator. |
Christian Kirk | SEA | $5,100 | 15% | Yes | « | Basically Fitzgerald v2 at this point. Consistent. |
Preston Williams | LAC | $3,900 | 4% | - | « | If targets are accurate, could easily deliver 4x value. |
Chris Godwin | @LAR | $6,000 | 7% | - | « | Best personnel matchup vs. tough LAR secondary. |
Julian Edelman | @BUF | $6,500 | 5% | - | « | Avoids White in coverage. Low-scoring game hurts. |
Dontrelle Inman | @MIA | $3,000 | 3% | - | « | Last man standing in LAC WR corps. Gets Xavien though. |
Phillip Dorsett | @BUF | $4,700 | 1% | - | « | Sneaky NE WR for GPPs. Avoids TreDavious, low %. |
Trey Quinn | @NYG | $3,000 | 4% | Yes | « | ADoT hurts upside, but price is far. Needs a TD. |
Josh Gordon | @BUF | $5,900 | 3% | - | « | Low projected score + TreDavious = fade. |
Cole Beasley | NE | $4,700 | 1% | - | « | Best BUF WR option. Like better at $4K. |
Mike Evans | @LAR | $7,100 | 8% | - | « | On him last week, but fading tough matchup here. |
Will Fuller | CAR | $4,500 | 9% | - | « | Like Nuk more, but will have a piece just in case. |
Larry Fitzgerald | SEA | $5,600 | 13% | - | « | Don't hate the play, but like other options more. |
Julio Jones | TEN | $7,800 | 15% | - | « | He's here because Ridley is up there (pointing up). |
Terry McLaurin | @NYG | $4,500 | 19% | - | « | Just can't justify 20% ownership. Easy fade. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: As discussed above, the Chargers' skill players are an injury wasteland entering this week's matchup against the lowly Dolphins. Hunter Henry, Justin Jackson, Mike Williams, and Travis Benjamin are all expected to miss this contest, which leaves two legitimate offensive ball-carriers: Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. Allen has been tremendous thus far, averaging 31.2 DK points per game with a low week stat line of 8/98/0. Like Patrick Mahomes II (above), he should be locked-and-loaded into cash games until further notice. There are several cash game candidates in the middle-tier including Kenny Golladay ($5.9K), Tyler Lockett ($6.3K), and Christian Kirk ($5.1K). Golladay and Lockett jump off the page as WR1s in their respective offenses, the latter of whom has been extensively used over the past two weeks. Golladay is coming off a disappointing performance against the Eagles, but should bounce back this week against the Chiefs, who are expected to force the Lions into passing more often than they typically care to do. Kirk is mentioned here because he is a poor man's Larry Fitzgerald with higher upside; given the pace of this Air Attack defense, we have no reason to believe that Kirk will not continue to see 8-12 targets each game. At a cash game punt, you could do worse than the Redskins' Trey Quinn, who should see plenty of time against the Giants' porous secondary. Quinn is the superior play (in cash games) to Dontrelle Inman at the same price because Inman appears to be headed to a day of dealing with Xavier Howard, which lowers his floor all the way to zero.
GPP: This week's TnP poster-child, DeAndre Hopkins is my favorite tournament wide receiver. "Nuk" has been quiet over the past two weeks, but he has dealt with stellar coverage in every game this season--he buried Marshon Lattimore in Week #1 (8/111/2) before giving way to Jalen Ramsey and Casey Hayward over the past two weeks. To be clear, he performed admirably in those contests, but did not find paydirt and did not surpass 100 receiving yards, which has driven down his popularity and salary entering this week's contest against the Panthers. Hopkins is a superior GPP option and should be rostered accordingly. You will note that the top of my GPP list for this position entail a series of WR1s that the masses are ignoring for one reason or another. Robert Woods (alongside Brandin Cooks & Cooper Kupp) is perennially underowned because DFS players do not like guessing between those players, but Woods is the play this week after seeing plenty of action without finding the endzone (yet). Allen Robinson is the only receiver that most casual football fans can name for the Bears, yet he is on only 2% of rosters against the Vikings? Sure, the Vikings field a solid defense, but there is no reason to think that ARob cannot finish with an 8/100/1 stat line (27 DK points) against an aging Xavier Rhodes, who is allowing 86% of passes thrown into his coverage to be caught thus far this season. Sammy Watkins is yet another WR1 who appears poised to go overlooked entering Sunday's contests. After a white-hot, three-touchdown game in Week #1, Watkins has posted back-to-back games nearer 5/50/0, which has the DFS community scared off him after he was over 30% owned in Week #2. Watkins still brings multi-touchdown upside to your rosters, is cheaper than he has been since Week #1, and will avoid Darius Slay for most of the day, as Slay rarely goes into the slot.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Travis Kelce | @DET | $7,200 | 12% | - | «««« | Tough TE matchup, but happy to go over 12% here. |
Greg Olsen | @HOU | $4,200 | 5% | Yes | «««« | Allen is locked-in on him. Still affordable. |
Delanie Walker | @ATL | $4,800 | 7% | - | ««« | First receiving option on TEN. Plus gamescript. |
Demetrius Harris | @BAL | $2,500 | 1% | - | ««« | Benefits from Njoku injury. Salary-saver. Contrarian. |
Vernon Davis | @NYG | $3,400 | 1% | - | ««« | Sneaky GPP play vs. poor TE defense. |
Evan Engram | WAS | $5,700 | 14% | - | «« | Target monster merits consideration. Price is factor. |
Will Dissly | @ARZ | $3,600 | 18% | Yes | «« | Best TE matchup on board. Ownership reflects upside. |
Austin Hooper | TEN | $4,300 | 6% | - | «« | TEN: Allowed a TD to this position in every 2019 game. |
Noah Fant | JAX | $2,600 | 1% | - | «« | Getting looks, just needs to convert a TD. Salary-saver. |
Darren Waller | @IND | $5,200 | 10% | Yes | « | Carr's first read. Indy allowed 2 TDs to ATL TE in last. |
Mark Andrews | CLE | $5,000 | 5% | - | « | Came back to Earth last week. Still in play for GPPs. |
Jack Doyle | OAK | $3,700 | 2% | - | « | GPP flyer with Hilton likely to miss. |
T.J. Hockenson | KC | $3,300 | 5% | - | « | Snaps trending downward. Plus gamescript. |
Eric Ebron | OAK | $4,000 | 4% | - | « | See notes on Jack Doyle (above). |
O.J. Howard | @LAR | $3,900 | 6% | - | « | Squeaky wheel narrative in plus gamescript? |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: On a week where Will Dissly is the chalk, anything is possible. Dissly will be popular because everything is in his favor for a stellar week: He is coming off a pair of games that saw him score thrice, the Seahawks traded his only competition for snaps (Nick Vannett) to the Steelers earlier this week, and he faces a Cardinals defense that has yielded five touchdowns to his position through only three games. At $3.6K, Dissly is optimal cash game tight end. If salary is not an option, you might consider going to the Raiders' Darren Waller, who is averaging nearly 10 targets per game and is coming off a 13/134/0 effort against the Vikings last Sunday. In between Dissly and Waller is Greg Olsen, who has Kyle Allen's attention in their brief on-the-field time together. Allen connected with Olsen for a pair of touchdowns last week in Arizona and has targeted the tight end position on nearly a quarter of his attempts to this point in his young career.
GPP: Stop the madness! With Evan Engram, Will Dissly, and Darren Waller topping the list of tight ends on our ownership projections, the best tight end in the league is sitting in the third slot and it is your opportunity to gain ground on 50+% of rosters that contain any of those names. Not that you need to be reminded, but Travis Kelce is a matchup-proof tight end with multi-touchdown upside; jam him into as many lineups as you can while the masses sweat out their Sundays with inferior talent and lesser quarterbacks to get them the ball. I want to stop there to drive home the point, but I'll touch on a few other options...as pure GPP punt options, both Vernon Davis and Noah Fant will afford you the ability to load up at other positions. Both of these players are getting routine looks in their offenses and need only to score a touchdown to reach value; it would not be surprising if one (or both) did exactly that given their respective personnel matchups on Sunday. Lastly, do not sleep on Delanie Walker, the only Titans receiver that can be trusted, in a matchup against the Falcons, who bled fantasy output (9/118/0) to the Colts' tight end trio just last week.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Ravens | CLE | $3,200 | 4% | - | «««« | Going against Mayfield has won many GPPs in 2019. |
Bills | NE | $2,600 | 2% | - | «««« | Cheap, underrated defense at home in rivalry. |
Rams | TB | $3,500 | 10% | - | ««« | Jameis should struggled agains this secondary. |
Vikings | @CHI | $3,400 | 2% | - | ««« | Trubisky is not the same without Gase calling plays. |
Falcons | TEN | $2,900 | 3% | - | ««« | Mariota is a bad half away from being pulled. |
Bears | MIN | $3,400 | 5% | - | «« | Top-notch defense is always in play at home. |
Chiefs | @DET | $3,000 | 1% | - | «« | A small piece in the event that Stafford gets sloppy. |
Seahawks | @ARZ | $3,300 | 2% | - | «« | Not what they used to be, but Kyler is still a rookie. |
Jaguars | @DEN | $3,700 | 2% | - | «« | Less attractive w/out Ramsey, but Flacco is Flacco. |
Colts | OAK | $3,100 | 8% | - | « | Happy to get close to field at 8% versus Carr. |
Giants | WAS | $3,600 | 1% | - | « | Young Skins' offense could be prone to mistakes. |
Titans | @ATL | $2,600 | 2% | - | « | Slow offensive pace and decent D is only savior. |
Browns | @BAL | $2,500 | 2% | - | « | Cheap contrarian option. Defense is good when healthy. |
Pats | @BUF | $3,700 | 11% | - | « | Excellent option, but price and ownership hurt. |
Chargers | @MIA | $3,800 | 20% | Yes | « | Highly volatile position. 20% is too high. |
Broncos | JAX | $2,900 | 16% | Yes | « | Not same defense as years' past, but OK in cash games. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: At the bottom of my GPP tier and the top of my cash game list, the Chargers' and Broncos' defenses have unimposing matchups against offenses lacking firepower. The Chargers will have to do it away from home in an early game in Miami, but the Dolphins have scored 10, 0, and 6 points in their 3 games this season; there is no reason to believe that Joey Bosa and company will come to town and experience a different outcome. At home in Denver, the Broncos will host the Gardner Minshew-led Jaguars, who have been surprisingly competitive since Nick Foles (clavicle) went down to injury in Week #1. That said, the Broncos are affordable and relatively low-risk when compared to other options on this slate. In both cases, however, the recommendation is that you go underweight on the field because neither team is a lock for a big fantasy day and there is too much volatility at this roster position to conscientiously roster a team upwards of 15+%.
GPP: Topping the list of team defenses for tournament play are the Ravens and Bills. Baltimore plays host to Baker Mayfield, whose 2019 campaign could not have started worse; through 3 games, Mayfield has tossed 5 interceptions and has been sacked 11 times. After allowing 33 points to the potent Chiefs' offense last week, this is a prime rebound spot for the Ravens at home in an AFC East contest. The Bills are a strict GPP recommendation against the undefeated Patriots. It would be folly to suggest that the Patriots are overrated, but we have to put their undefeated record into context: They have yet to play a team with a win in 2019. They also lost Antonio Brown as fast as they signed him and will be without a key cog in their offense, James Develin, for the rest of the year. It would not be surprising to see the Bills come out hot in this one and give Tom Brady fits in front of a fired-up home crowd. Elsewhere, the Rams are logical crowd favorites against the erratic Jameis Winston-led Buccaneers at home and there is no reason to be afraid of rostering the Vikings defense on the road against Mitchell Trubisky, who is desperately missing Adam Gase's creative offensive mindset this season.