For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
ADVICE FOR TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: As I briefly discussed on this week's edition of the PowerGrid, the shark method to generating contrarian, high-upside lineups for GPPs this week is to start your roster builds by slotting in a couple $6K+ wide receivers, which will force you to do something unique at running back. As you have probably already seen, there are seven different teams who are favored to win by at least a touchdown, which results in a lot of confidence around running backs on those respective teams. Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, and Chris Carson all fit the mold of home favorite while being 10+% owned by the masses and merit serious consideration in all game types. But you know contrarian lineup builds are the secret to high-end scores in tournaments, which is why grabbling a few high-dollar receivers will force you to look at lower-owned, alternative running backs. On that less notable list, you might consider Peyton Barber at $4.6K, Sony Michel at $6.0K, or LeSean McCoy at $5.0K, all of whom bring upside to your lineups with < 5% public ownership. This is not to advise you to totally avoid all high-dollar running backs, but more about guidance as to how you can differentiate your lineups merely by building them "backwards." Best of luck on Sunday!
NEW FORMAT!
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Kyle Allen | @ARZ | $4,000 | 2% | Yes | «««« | Lots of factors in his favor. Read below for more. |
Jimmy Garoppolo | PIT | $6,200 | 2% | - | «««« | Crowd exposure is too low. Pair him with Kittle. |
Kyler Murray | CAR | $5,800 | 8% | Yes | «««« | Pace of offense drives production. Still cheap. |
Patrick Mahomes II | BAL | $7,600 | 10% | Yes | ««« | Mr. Everything. There is no limit to his upside. |
Tom Brady | NYJ | $6,600 | 4% | - | ««« | Only 4% owned despite 33-point team total? |
Aaron Rodgers | DEN | $6,100 | 3% | - | ««« | Looked much improved in last. Too low-owned here. |
Matthew Stafford | @PHL | $5,500 | 3% | - | ««« | If Bevell releases the brakes, Stafford could dice PHL. |
Philip Rivers | HOU | $5,800 | 3% | - | «« | Potential shootout in LA. Surprised at ownership # here. |
Carson Wentz | DET | $5,600 | 6% | - | «« | Rushing game in PHL is abyssmal. Wentz to rescue. |
Russell Wilson | NO | $6,300 | 2% | - | «« | Lockett & Metcalf are too talented to fade entirely. |
Deshaun Watson | @LAC | $6,400 | 5% | - | «« | Game has sneaky shootout potential. Weapons galore. |
Matt Ryan | @IND | $5,700 | 4% | - | « | Underweight on field, but a small piece just in case. |
Kirk Cousins | OAK | $5,100 | 2% | - | « | Get more than field. Thielen/Diggs could thrive here. |
Mason Rudolph | @SF | $4,800 | 1% | - | « | Gamescript favors PIT passing. Price is right. |
Josh Allen | CIN | $5,900 | 7% | - | « | Limited options beyond J.Brown. Slight under field. |
Jameis Winston | NYG | $5,400 | 8% | - | « | Upside is there, but like other options more. |
Lamar Jackson | @KC | $7,000 | 11% | - | « | Rather have others at similar price point. |
Dak Prescott | MIA | $6,500 | 11% | Yes | « | Fading in favor of going heavy on Zeke. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: If you can afford it, just slot Patrick Mahomes II into your cash game rosters and move to the next position. Mahomes has been a model of consistency across the better part of the past year and appears to be doing whatever he wants to opposing offenses; he gets a battered Ravens' defensive backfield in this week's contest and should easily carve out a 3x performance, particularly considering that the Chiefs RB1, Damien Williams (knee), will miss the game. If the opportunity cost for Mahomes is too high, and it might be, you could drop down to either quarterback in the game being played in Phoenix: Both Kyle Allen ($4.0K) and Kyler Murray ($5.8K) are viable cash game options because of their reasonable cost and implied pace of this contest. Entering this weekend, Carolina and Arizona have displayed the fastest-paced overall offenses in the league; this should equate to a bevy of plays for each quarterback to amass fantasy production. Elsewhere, Dak Prescott ($6.5K) has thrived under Kellen Moore's new scheme, albeit against poor defenses. Luckily, he plays the worst defense in the league on Sunday and the Cowboys have the highest implied team total on the Vegas boards, which should equate to continued solid production from Prescott for at least another week.
GPP: While the DFS world is focusing on a handful of quarterbacks this week, do not be afraid to get some exposure to low-owned, high-upside alternatives. Topping that list is Jimmy Garoppolo, whose offense enters Week #3 with an average of 36 points per game and will face a Steelers defense that has allowed 300+ yards and 3 passing touchdowns in both of their games this season. DFS players tend to avoid Garoppolo because pairing him with a wide receiver is difficult, as they tend to spread the ball around, but George Kittle is the unquestioned top receiver in San Francisco and merits similar attention. Tom Brady could be described similarly. Entering the weekend, he looks to be on only 4% of rosters despite having a 33-point implied team total. Why? The most likely explanation is because Bill Belichick keeps us guessing and because Antonio Brown has been released, but Brady still has 3+ touchdown upside with names like Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and James White, all of whom are equally underowned. In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers is interesting coming off a pair of games against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Chicago and Minnesota). Rodgers led his team to wins on both occasions and gets a much lesser opponent in the form of the Denver Broncos at Lambeau on Sunday; Denver ranks high against quarterbacks to this point in the season, but that statistic is marred by the fact that they have faced only Mitchell Trubisky and Derek Carr.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Ezekiel Elliott | MIA | $8,900 | 24% | Yes | «««« | No higher floor/upside at the position this week. |
Alvin Kamara | @SEA | $8,000 | 4% | - | «««« | 4%?? Gladly take his talent against the field at 4%. |
Sony Michel | NYJ | $6,000 | 5% | - | «««« | 21 touches in last & 22-point fave this week. |
David Johnson | CAR | $6,800 | 10% | - | «««« | Probably $1K too cheap for role and opportunity. |
Darwin Thompson | BAL | $3,000 | 1% | - | ««« | Sneaky GPP differentiator. Needs minimal #'s to deliver. |
Peyton Barber | NYG | $4,600 | 3% | - | ««« | TD-fave at home. 23 touches last week. |
LeVeon Bell | @NE | $7,000 | 6% | Yes | ««« | Falk targeted him constantly in last game. |
Austin Ekeler | HOU | $7,200 | 23% | Yes | ««« | Continues to deliver. No reason to stop vs. HOU. |
James Conner | @SF | $6,400 | 3% | - | «« | Unexciting, but always take talent at 3% crowd exposure. |
Christian McCaffrey | @ARZ | $8,700 | 26% | Yes | «« | Only downside is the public ownership and salary. |
Mark Ingram | @KC | $5,700 | 3% | - | «« | Gamescript could hurt, but RB depth is limited. |
Frank Gore | CIN | $4,400 | 3% | - | «« | Should see 20+ touches again vs. Cincy. |
Saquon Barkley | @TB | $9,100 | 11% | - | «« | Upside is there, but unknown with Jones under center. |
Kenyan Drake | @DAL | $4,500 | 2% | - | «« | Banking of PPR and garbage time upside at low cost. |
Chris Carson | NO | $5,900 | 16% | Yes | «« | Fine play, but risky due to ball-handling concerns. |
LeSean McCoy | BAL | $5,000 | 2% | - | «« | Should absorb RB1 role in Damien Williams' absence. |
Rex Burkhead | NYJ | $3,900 | 2% | - | « | Price point is fair. Has delivered GPP upside in past. |
Miles Sanders | DET | $3,900 | 5% | - | « | Disappointing thus far, but salary merits consideration. |
Marlon Mack | ATL | $5,800 | 13% | - | « | Indy focal point should see 20+ touches. |
Aaron Jones | DEN | $6,100 | 10% | - | « | Quietly had 27 touches in last game. TD-fave here. |
Carlos Hyde | @LAC | $4,500 | 1% | - | « | Counting only on scoring. Zero PPR upside. |
Kerryon Johnson | @PHL | $5,600 | 6% | - | « | Way to beat Philly is via pass. Tough matchup. |
Josh Jacobs | @MIN | $5,300 | 2% | « | Last week, proved irrelevant if Oakland falls behind. | |
James White | NYJ | $5,100 | 2% | - | « | A GPP flyer based on additiona snaps w/out AB. |
Devonta Freeman | @IND | $4,900 | 5% | - | « | Opportunity has been somewhat limited by Ito Smith. |
Dalvin Cook | OAK | $7,800 | 24% | Yes | « | Game strategy fade. Negative TD regression candidate. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: Spend up at the running back position for your cash games this week. Ezekiel Elliott is all-but-assured to get into the endzone at least once and cross the 100-yard threshold against the lowly Miami Dolphins in a blowout; his $8.9K salary stings, but it is difficult to envision how he would not deliver 20+ DK points outside of an untimely injury. Just below Zeke is Christian McCaffrey at $8.7K. CMC will play behind Kyle Allen and should continue to see a heavy workload with a young quarterback looking to his security blanket when under pressure; McCaffrey should finish this game with 22-26 touches in a game that could surpass 130 total plays between a pair of fast-paced offenses. Elsewhere, both Austin Ekeler and LeVeon Bell should continue to see extra volume in their respective offenses. Ekeler has surpassed 100 all-purpose yards in both games as the Chargers' featured running back and picked up a half-dozen receptions in each of those efforts; he will take on a Houston Texans' defensive front that lost its best run-stopper, Jadeveon Clowney, to the Seahawks in early September. Meanwhile, Bell's upside may be limited by the Jets' 10-point implied team total, but his floor is solid as a dumpoff receiver from the Jets' young quarterback, Luke Falk. After subbing in for Trevor Siemian (ankle) last Monday night, Falk targeted Bell in the passing game 9 times in 35 minutes of play.
GPP: One of the bigger mysteries on this week's Ownership Projections by Steve Buzzard is why Sony Michel is only projected to be on 5% of tournament lineups on DraftKings? Michel is fresh off a 21-touch game that also saw him find paydirt in a blowout victory against the Dolphins. A similar gamescript is expected versus the Jets on Sunday and Michel, who was tackled inside the 5-yard line twice last week, could easily deliver 4x value on his $6.0K salary. In Seattle, do not sleep on Alvin Kamara at only 4% public exposure. The masses are likely overreacting to the loss of Drew Brees, but the combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill could prove to be an above-average substitute in the wake of Brees' injury. Kamara's skillset supercedes this injury and we should expect him to carry more of the offense on his back in Brees' absence--at less than 5% ownership, he is an excellent option to differentiate your tournament lineups. As discussed in the Tips section above, you can also derive a contrarian lineup by 'spending down' at this position and Peyton Barber is an intriguing option to accomplish that goal. Barber had 24 touches for a shade under 100 all-purpose yards last week and should expect similar usage as a touchdown-favorite over the visiting Giants this Sunday; if he goes off at the expected 3% ownership, you should have at least 3x that amount of exposure across your GPP portfolio. Lastly, give some thought to one (or both?) of the running backs in Kansas City--both LeSean McCoy and Darwin Williams are affordable contrarian options who bring solid upside to the table now that Damien Williams has been announced inactive on Sunday. Baltimore has admittedly been stingy against the position, but the gamescript in this matchup will be reversed and Kansas City offers too many ways to beat a defense, which should set the table for the running game.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Phillip Dorsett | NYJ | $3,400 | 1% | Yes | «««« | AB's departure provides value and upside. |
Sammy Watkins | BAL | $6,800 | 15% | Yes | «««« | Been 2-for-2 on Sammy this year. Back on the wagon. |
Kenny Golladay | @PHL | $6,600 | 6% | - | «««« | Eagles secondary has no answer for his abilities. |
Mike Evans | NYG | $6,600 | 7% | - | «««« | Positive regression candidate. Love the low ownership. |
Curtis Samuel | @ARZ | $4,800 | 4% | - | «««« | Alternative to Olsen for Kyle Allen stack. |
Michael Thomas | @SEA | $7,400 | 4% | - | «««« | Sure, Brees is gone, but MT will still get his. |
Devin Smith | MIA | $3,400 | 6% | - | «««« | Gets the nod across from Amari with Gallup out. |
D.J. Moore | @ARZ | $5,900 | 4% | - | «««« | See notes on Curtis Samuel above. Fast-pace. |
Davante Adams | DEN | $7,600 | 9% | - | «««« | Denver secondary is no longer elite…Adams, however, is. |
Josh Gordon | NYJ | $5,400 | 3% | - | «««« | Unsure of why he is only 3%, but taking advantage. |
Julian Edelman | NYJ | $6,300 | 3% | - | ««« | Brady's WR1 with implied team total of 33? Sure! |
Keenan Allen | HOU | $7,000 | 22% | Yes | ««« | Continues to be underpriced. Value and upside. |
DeAndre Hopkins | @LAC | $7,800 | 12% | - | ««« | Only deterrent is Casey Hayward shadow. Still viable. |
DeVante Parker | @DAL | $4,000 | 1% | - | ««« | Counting sheerly on garbage points for $4K. |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | DEN | $4,300 | 4% | - | ««« | Has looked the part in Davante's shadow. Sneaky. |
Stefon Diggs | OAK | $6,000 | 4% | - | ««« | Cook's dominance has affected output. Still has it. |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | @SF | $6,900 | 4% | - | ««« | Outclasses SF slot CB, KWaun Williams. Get some. |
Marvin Jones | @PHL | $5,000 | 2% | - | «« | Upside raises due to shoddy Eagles secondary. |
Amari Cooper | MIA | $7,500 | 11% | - | «« | Gameflow hurts his involvement. Still has 2-TD upside. |
Christian Kirk | CAR | $5,000 | 9% | - | «« | Pivot option from Larry Fitz. Great matchup. |
Diontae Johnson | @SF | $3,000 | 2% | - | «« | Gets the start. Great way to differentiate your roster. |
Larry Fitzgerald | CAR | $5,100 | 13% | Yes | «« | Still doing it. Future HOF'er is liked by rookie QB. |
Adam Thielen | OAK | $6,700 | 5% | - | «« | OAK D: Allowed 3 of 4 passing TDs from slot. |
Marquise Brown | @KC | $5,900 | 12% | - | «« | Rookie is fire. Dislike the high ownership, though. |
Keke Coutee | @LAC | $3,400 | 1% | - | «« | Great contrarian option if snap count goes up again. |
Jamison Crowder | @NE | $4,800 | 1% | - | «« | Volume possibilty in full-PPR. Double-digit targets? |
Damiere Byrd | CAR | $3,000 | 3% | - | «« | Do not understand the price. Playing every snap! |
Miles Boykin | @KC | $3,000 | 1% | - | «« | Sneaky pivot away from crowd fave Marquise Brown. |
Sterling Shepard | @TB | $4,900 | 2% | - | «« | Returns from concussion with rookie QB in debut. |
John Brown | CIN | $5,500 | 12% | - | «« | Allen's favorite target can behind this defense. |
Tyler Lockett | NO | $6,200 | 5% | - | « | Plus matchup versus P.J. Williams. Small piece. |
Will Fuller | @LAC | $4,900 | 4% | - | « | Speed mismatch against plodding CB, Brandon Facyson. |
DK Metcalf | NO | $4,700 | 3% | - | « | Can beat Marshon, but Wilson may look elsewhere. |
Mecole Hardman | BAL | $5,000 | 5% | - | « | Speedster delivered last week. Price has gone up. |
Tyrell Williams | @MIN | $5,600 | 3% | - | « | Minnesota D limits offensive opportunity. Limited. |
Ted Ginn Jr | @SEA | $3,900 | 1% | - | « | Deep threat affected by Brees' injury. Cheap enough. |
Mack Hollins | DET | $3,200 | 4% | - | « | Big receiver has size advantage over DET DBs. |
Cole Beasley | CIN | $4,400 | 2% | - | « | Steady. Needs a score to merit GPP consideration. |
Robby Anderson | @NE | $4,800 | 1% | - | « | Tough matchup vs. Stefon Gilmore. Limit exposure. |
Courtland Sutton | @GB | $4,500 | 2% | - | « | Do not love the matchup, but a diversification effort. |
Nelson Agholor | DET | $3,600 | 31% | Yes | « | Full fade in GPPs. Will take my chances against 30%. |
Preston Williams | @DAL | $3,700 | 2% | - | « | Garbage time hero for < $4K. Just a few shares. |
James Washington | @SF | $3,500 | 4% | - | « | Should deliver when not bound up by Richard Sherman. |
Calvin Ridley | @IND | $5,300 | 6% | - | « | TD magnet looking stellar in first two games. |
Demarcus Robinson | BAL | $5,200 | 5% | - | « | GPP winner from last week is too highly priced. |
Randall Cobb | MIA | $4,600 | 6% | - | « | Will Gallup's absence create additional opportunity? |
Chris Godwin | NYG | $6,900 | 9% | - | « | Prefer Mike Evans at similar salary. Short fade. |
John Ross | @BUF | $5,100 | 6% | - | « | Should struggle against this superior DB personnel. |
Julio Jones | @IND | $7,300 | 16% | - | « | Indy's rush-heavy approach hurts his upside. |
Emmanuel Sanders | @GB | $4,800 | 14% | Yes | « | Floor is solid, but not convinced upside is there. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: With the strength of the running back position this week, saving salary at the wide receiver position is essential. Start by considering either (or both) Phillip Dorsett and/or Nelson Agholor. Dorsett was a late-week beneficiary of the news surrounding the Patriots' release of Antonio Brown on Friday; he should see over 80% of the Patriots' snaps, which equates to a lot of opportunity for a receiver that is close to site-minimum in terms of price. Agholor will be a crowd-favorite coming off an 11-target game and entering Sunday without DeSean Jackson (groin) and questions about Alshon Jeffery's (calf) availability. The remainder of cash game options are all slot receivers expected to see significant volume in their teams' respective passing game. Larry Fitzgerald has thrived under Kliff Kingsbury's Air-Raid offense and has finished both games with 100+ yards; he remains underpriced at only $5.1K. The same story for Emmanuel Sanders in Denver, where he has collected 20 targets across two games and a score in each of them. At the higher end of the salary scale, both Sammy Watkins and Keenan Allen are attractive options because they are focal pieces for their offenses. Watkins is coming off a disappointing week, but a short memory is merited given his salary and role in this Patrick Mahomes II-driven offense. In Los Angeles, Keenan Allen has double-digit targets in both games this season and gets a plush matchup against exterior-cornerback-turned-slot-cornerback, Bradley Roby, who will struggle to contain the feisty veteran.
GPP: To avoid burying the lede, let's start by addressing how to handle Nelson Agholor. My recommendation is to fade him as much as you feel comfortable. I am currently leaning towards a complete (0% ownership) fade because the Eagles' other players are just as talented as Agholor and a mediocre performance would immediately elevate my lineups past 30% of the field. Last week, I urged you to fade Sammy Watkins in tournaments for the same reason and a combination of Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman delivered while the 25% of lineups that harbored Watkins' name settled to the bottom of the rankings. It's always a risk to fade these types of players, but over the long-term, it's the right call. So who should we target? Here's a quick hitlist: Mike Evans is going overlooked despite substantial looks in the passing game--he will deliver a 100+ yard, 2-touchdown game soon and this matchup against the Giants is not one to fear, as they have allowed the 3rd-most FPs to the position. Feel free to load up on any of the Panthers' receivers in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, both of whom may arguably become better fantasy candidates now that Cam Newton's noodle arm is watching from the sidelines. As discussed above, this Carolina-Arizona game is one to target for gamestacks and these receivers should see plenty of opportunity at a modest price point. And if you are looking for salary relief because you spent too much salary at the running back position (easy to do this week), do not sleep on Damiere Byrd in that same game because he has seen ample playing time and could feasibly deliver 7x on his salary with minimal ownership. Two additional salary-savers are Diontae Johnson, who will get the start for Pittsburgh in a game where we might expect them to play catchup in the second-half, and Miles Boykin, who brings similar upside to the table as Marquise Brown, but at a fraction of the cost and public exposure.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
George Kittle | PIT | $5,600 | 11% | - | «««« | Best receiver on team. Positive TD regression. |
Zach Ertz | DET | $5,700 | 16% | - | «««« | Hobbled Eagles receiving corps helps his volume. |
Greg Olsen | @ARZ | $3,700 | 7% | Yes | «««« | Old man still has it. Love the price & matchup. |
Travis Kelce | BAL | $7,100 | 14% | Yes | «««« | Would be $1K more if considered a WR. In play. |
Mark Andrews | @KC | $4,600 | 15% | Yes | ««« | Pass-heavy gamescript favors another big game. |
Vance McDonald | @SF | $4,300 | 2% | - | ««« | Caught a pair of Mason Rudolph TDs in last effort. |
Jared Cook | @SEA | $3,800 | 1% | - | ««« | New QB scheme could equate to increased role. |
Jimmy Graham | DEN | $4,000 | 2% | - | «« | Contrarian option coming off goose-egg game. |
O.J. Howard | NYG | $3,800 | 4% | - | «« | Dismiss him entirely if he does nothing this week. |
T.J. Hockenson | @PHL | $3,500 | 4% | - | «« | Best way to beat the Eagles is via the air. Good spot. |
Jason Witten | MIA | $3,700 | 2% | - | « | MIA: 2nd most FPs in league allowed to TEs. |
Eric Ebron | ATL | $3,800 | 1% | - | « | TD-dependent flyer. Minimal exposure. |
Austin Hooper | @IND | $3,600 | 3% | - | « | Always a possibility, but limited excitement here. |
Noah Fant | @GB | $2,800 | 2% | - | « | Punt flyer to afford expenses elsewhere. |
Will Dissly | NO | $3,400 | 2% | - | « | Cannot be ignored coming off 2-TD effort. |
Darren Waller | @MIN | $4,100 | 6% | - | « | Needs to score vs. tough D to justify salary. |
Evan Engram | @TB | $5,200 | 10% | - | « | Kittle is my guy at this price point. Fade. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: Three options stand out for cash games at the tight end position and, conveniently, they fall at each tier of the salary spectrum. At the high end, you have Travis Kelce against the Ravens, who needs no commentary outside of the fact that he is averaging just shy of 100 receiving yards per game and plays for a team projected to score nearly 30 points in their 2019 home opener. Nearer the middle in the same game, Mark Andrews is a viable option at $4.6K because we should expect to see the Ravens air the ball out to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs; Andrews has posted 8 catches, 100+ yards, and a score in each of his first two games this season. If salary savings are needed, give consideration to Greg Olsen. The crafty veteran is priced fairly at $3.7K and is playing in a game with the two fastest-paced offenses in the league, so opportunity should be there at a reasonable price point.
GPP: George Kittle and Zach Ertz top the list of GPP candidates because they should be the top receiver for their respective teams on Sunday. Kittle is an elite talent taking on a Steelers defense that allowed a pair of touchdowns to Will Dissly last weekend. He has had several scores called back due to penalties this season and enters this game without an official score--look for positive scoring regression at a modest salary and ownership level. Zach Ertz should see elevated usage with Desean Jackson (groin) out and Alshon Jeffery (calf) unable to practice all week. Ertz will be chalky, but he should be considered far-and-away the superior tournament play to Nelson Agholor, who will be owned at twice the level. Elsewhere, give a look to Jared Cook, who could benefit from a shorter passing scheme from the Saints while Drew Brees recovers from thumb surgery or roll with Vance McDonald off a 2-touchdown game with Mason Rudolph under center.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Dallas Cowboys | MIA | $4,300 | 14% | Yes | «««« | Miami is historically bad. Josh Rosen?! |
Green Bay Packers | DEN | $3,400 | 5% | - | «««« | Pack D has looked solid. Gets Flacco at home. |
Buffalo Bills | CIN | $3,400 | 6% | - | «««« | Underrated defense in home opener. |
Kansas City Chiefs | BAL | $2,500 | 2% | - | ««« | Cheap flyer. Fired-up crowd in first game at home. |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NYG | $2,900 | 3% | - | ««« | See what they have in Danny Dimes' debut. |
Cincinnati Bengals | @BUF | $2,400 | 2% | - | ««« | Josh Allen is always subject to a pick-six. |
Seattle Seahawks | NO | $3,200 | 4% | - | «« | Average defense, but gets Saints without Brees. |
Minnesota Vikings | OAK | $3,300 | 8% | Yes | «« | Vikes shut down Falcons in last home game. |
Los Angeles Chargers | HOU | $2,500 | 5% | - | «« | Cheap home option. Even with the field. |
Philadelphia Eagles | DET | $3,500 | 1% | - | «« | Lions' conservative offense limits upside. |
Arizona Cardinals | CAR | $2,700 | 2% | - | «« | Inexpensive option versus Kyle Allen. Limited exposure. |
Houston Texans | @LAC | $2,800 | 2% | - | «« | Chargers: Allow 8th most FPs/game to team defense. |
Carolina Panthers | @ARZ | $2,700 | 3% | - | « | Just a few % to cover your bases. |
San Francisco 49ers | PIT | $3,200 | 5% | - | « | Limited exposure in case Rudolph flops in debut. |
New Orleans Saints | @SEA | $2,200 | 2% | - | « | Minimal exposure on a week with strong chalk. |
Indianapolis Colts | ATL | $2,800 | 2% | « | Unexciting option at home vs. poor travel offense. | |
Detroit Lions | @PHL | $2,200 | 3% | « | Birds' broken WR corps could create issues for Wentz. | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | @SF | $2,300 | 5% | - | « | Fitzpatrick trade should shore up that secondary. |
New England Patriots | NYJ | $3,800 | 23% | Yes | « | Fading after 37-point Week #2. Game strategy move. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: After the Patriots defense scored 37 DK points at high ownership against the Dolphins last week, they will be the chalk against the Luke Falk-led Jets in Foxborough on Sunday. For GPPs, you should consider going underweight on the field, given their massive implied ownership and the scoring volatility of the position, but they are certainly an acceptable option in cash game formats. The Cowboys are the most expensive item on the team defense menu at $4.3K because they take on the aforementioned Dolphins, who allowed Baltimore's defense to score 14 points against them before the Patriots tallied 37 in Week #2; Dallas is a strong option, if you have the residual salary. A cheaper option for cash games, the Minnesota Vikings host the Raiders as Oakland travels for the first time this season. The Vikes have played solid defense against better offenses than the Raiders and should have no trouble against Derek Carr's limited skillset.
GPP: In GPPs, the general advice this week is to go no higher than 10% of lineups with the Patriots and use the 'leftover' percentages to chase teams with low ownership and possible upside. As stated above, the team defense position is largely unpredictable, particularly around upside, so game strategy dictates that we should look elsewhere when an expensive defense will be on approximately 25% of teams in a given tournament. At the top of my list is Dallas and Green Bay--the Cowboys get a Dolphins team that has scored a total of 10 points through their first 2 games while the Packers' underrated defense plays host to Joe Flacco and company at Lambeau. After the top 3-5 defenses, my GPP pool will be scattered with teams at low exposure because nothing stands out beyond the chalk this week.