Photo: Joe Nicholson, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

DON'T BUY INTO THE HYPE: Coming out of the draft that leads into the preseason that brings us to Week #1, there are a litany of narratives and hype surrounding players, coaching schemes, and personnel. For example, Justice Hill has looked the part in Baltimore, Jimmy Garoppolo had a terrible preseason, and Julio Jones is irritated with his current contract situation. Assuming each of those stories to be true, we should avoid Mark Ingram, Jimmy G., and Julio Jones, right? Not so fast. When there are no stats from which the media can write articles and assess talent, there is a tendency to create narratives that result in article clicks because, after all, nobody is going to read an article about Julio Jones starting against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. While Justice Hill may actually be the real deal, do not make the mistake of slotting him into your lineups based solely on preseason hype; truth is that he has looked great, but Mark Ingram is a proven commodity in this league and the Ravens will more than likely ease Hill into their offense while Ingram does the heavy lifting. It's this kind of thinking that can make the difference between winning and losing on Opening Weekend. Do your research, rely on established talent, and trust your instincts. And because we are in this together, I wish you the best of luck...

NEW FORMAT!

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

• The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
• The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
• The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
  • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
  • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
  • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
  • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
• If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:

CASH: For DFS contests where you only have to beat half of your opponents, you have options at the quarterback position this week. At the high end of the salary scale, feel free to grab Patrick Mahomes II, whose matchup against the Jaguars is not as imposing as the public perceives. Jacksonville lost a number of key players on defense in the off-season while the Chiefs gained some additional talent and experience on the offensive side of the ball in the form of Darwin Thompson and LeSean McCoy, the latter of whom should slot into Andy Reid's system immediately due to his familiarity with it. Elsewhere, Kirk Cousins (and most of the Minnesota Vikings) are underpriced in a potential shootout against the Falcons this weekend. Cousins returns two high-caliber receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs and should easily put up a statline that yields 3x value on his modest $5.5K salary. If you are looking to save salary, Jacoby Brissett's upside is limited, but his $4.4K salary means that you only have to score ~ 15 DK points to justify his place in your cash game lineups, a threshold he reached in over 60% of his games as a starter in 2017. With a gamescript that supports extra passing and garbage time production, Brissett looks staged to deliver cash game value on Sunday.

GPP: Having already mentioned Patrick Mahomes II' and Kirk Cousins' floor above, it's worthwhile mentioning that their ceilings for tournaments are as high as any quarterback on this slate--go higher than the field in your overall exposure. Another top option is Jameis Winston, who will likely be the most popular quarterback on the entire slate; Winston has two excellent receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and will face a 49er secondary whose talent drops off hard after mentioning the aging Richard Sherman. Given the possibility of a shootout (second-highest Vegas game total on the main slate), stacking Winston with your favorite TB receiver and "running it back" with a 49er receiver makes a lot of sense for building upside into your rosters. Opposite Winston in that same game, give some consideration to Jimmy Garoppolo for the same reasons (i.e., shootout potential). The verdict on Garoppolo entering the season is that he's washed up based on his preseason performances, but go against group-think here and double the field's exposure in your GPP lineups because of what he has done in years' past and because of the matchup against a pedestrian TB secondary. Deeper options include Philip Rivers, whose Chargers could score all of their points through the air with Austin Ekeler's pass-catching ability out of the backfield and Nick Foles, whose first game with the Jaguars should result in 40+ pass attempts to keep pace with the Chiefs' potent offense.

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:

CASH: First thing first: Due to the depth of choices at the position, you should probably slot in a running back into the 'flex' position in your cash game lineups. At the top of the list is Chris Carson, who should enjoy a positive gamescript and an increased role in the passing game, both of which bodes well for his fantasy prospects on DK at only $5.7K. Right next to Carson on the salary scale is Dalvin Cook, who should benefit from Latavius Murray's departure to New Orleans in the off-season by getting additional goalline opportunities that he sometimes lost in 2018. Elsewhere, Kerryon Johnson carries a solid floor with significant upside in Matt Patricia's run-heavy scheme against a Cardinals defense that was 29th against the rush last season (DVOA, FootballOutsiders) and did little to shore up that defense this Spring. Lastly, Nick Chubb is another home-favorite RB who looks to absorb a bellcow role now that Duke Johnson Jr has left the team to join the Texans; his $6.4K salary feels about $800 to $1,000 too cheap for his likely involvement in this matchup against an average Titans defense.

GPP: Near the top of the list for tournament options this week is Jordan Howard, who is projected to be rostered in only 1% of GPP lineups on Sunday. The Eagles traded for Howard in the Spring and subsequently drafted Penn State alumnus, Miles Sanders, with their first pick in the 2019 draft, which is why the masses are avoiding Howard against the Redskins. Lest we forget that the 24-year old Howard was only 65 yards away from logging his 3rd consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season in as many years last year; he may not be an elite running back in this league, but he is a better talent than the DFS community is currently giving him credit for. Miles Sanders will see time on Sunday, but we should expect the veteran to get the bulk of the team's carries and goalline action at a modest $4.1K price point. Another GPP option is Todd Gurley, whose demise at the end of last season is carrying over to this season, as evidenced by a low projected ownership of only 6%. Gurley certainly has some long-term health issues, but this is the same running back that posted 20+ DK points for the first 10 weeks of the season last year. Concerns about his health are already baked into his price and he should not be overlooked this weekend. Another recency bias candidate who merits attention is Leonard Fournette, who should absorb every-down responsibilities not that T.J. Yeldon finds himself in Buffalo. Fournette has rarely been used as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but Doug Marrone has gone on record that the Jags will use him more in that capacity in 2019. Thus, in a gamescript that likely requires extra passing, Fournette brings touchdown and PPR upside in DK's scoring format.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:

CASH: The recommendation for cash games is to go middle-of-the-road this week because the safer plays are at other positions. Targeting names like Sterling Shepard, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dede Westbrook, all of whom are their teams' respective WR1, makes sense at their price points because they all have implied plus gamescripts and should see 6-10 targets. Of all wide receiver options, however, Tyler Lockett is the top option for cash games because he is locked in for 8+ targets against a makeshift Bengals secondary that will likely be in the bottom half of the league as the season progresses; Lockett will line up opposite rookie phenom D.K. Metcalf, who just recently returned to practice after recovering from minor knee surgery in August. One might hypothesize that Russell Wilson will take some time to trust the rookie and instead focus on his established receiver in passing situations. On the other sideline, Tyler Boyd should see plentiful targets in a plus gamescript, as the Bengals are expected to trail throughout this matchup and A.J. Green will not be active, so Boyd will absorb the WR1 role out of the slot against rookie Ugo Amadi.

GPP: In tournament formats, anything goes at the wide receiver position. All players in the above table will be distributed across my 150 lineups in the $9 entry, 500K Slant on DraftKings, a tournament with an excellent payout structure that I recommend to readers of this column. Of those options, Michael Gallup and Calvin Ridley are amongst the top candidates for delivering 4x value on their respective salaries at low ownership; both a solid leverage plays against their respective WR1s (Amari Cooper and Julio Jones, respectively), where the public is most slanted towards those players and are paying a premium for exposure to them. Give me Gallup and Ridley at the cheaper buy-in and lower public exposure with similar upside. Of all WR options, Mike Evans is an elite shark play in tournament formats. Everybody wants exposure to a Buccaneers wide receiver and the public will be looking to take Chris Godwin at a $1,700 discount to Evans, but the game strategy move is to fade Godwin's ~ 20% ownership and pay the premium for Evans. Last season, Evans ran 33% of his routes from the slot, where he will have a massive 8-inch height advantage over the Niners' diminutive KWaun Williams on Sunday, which Bruce Arians should exploit inside the redzone. Closing out this walk-through are a couple of GPP darts that will not be in other DFS articles this week: Both Damion Willis and Trey Quinn are intriguing roster differentiators at $3.4K or less. Willis earned himself a WR2 role opposite the aforementioned Tyler Boyd and should benefit from a plus gamescript, while Quinn finds himself in a similar situation (gamescript) with a quarterback in Case Keenum that loves to target his slot receivers. Both will be owned at 1% or less, which could provide differentiation on your large-field GPP lineups where you might go relatively chalky at other positions.

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT END TIDBITS:

CASH: It's tough to argue against Travis Kelce for cash games on a week where it's possible to save salary at other positions. Kelce logged a 5/100/0 stat line last season against a better Jags defense and should get plenty of overflow action while Tyreek Hill deals with shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. His floor and upside are the highest at this position. If salary cap is limited both Evan Engram and Hunter Henry are reasonable cash game options. Engram will compete against only Sterling Shepard for looks in the Giants' passing game while Golden Tate is sidelined with a suspension for PEDs; beyond Shepard (and Saquon Barkley), Engram's competition includes Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer, neither of whom should concern us when paying Engram's modest $4.8K salary. Hunter Henry is the cheap cash game option that gets the nod because Antonio Gates is finally retired; Henry is a special talent and it would not be surprising if this is the cheapest we see his salary all season.

GPP: In the first week of the season, the tight end position might be the most difficult to accurately project. As a result, you are going to see a lot of overlap in ownership at the position, with over half of rosters containing either Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, George Kittle, or Evan Engram. Each of those players merits strong consideration for your tournament lineups because they carry the most upside at the position; of the four, it's a difficult choice between Kelce and Kittle, but Kittle wins by a slim margin because of his implied lower ownership. That said, game strategy would have you look elsewhere and hope to lock in on a tight end that delivers 4x value that is on far fewer lineups. To that end, you could consider O.J. Howard, who could have a breakout season of his own this year, or Tyler Eifert, who has demonstrated that he can be dominant when he is 100% healthy (and he reportedly is). One last option is Greg Olsen, who is admittedly showing his age over the past 24 months, but if he's on the field, you can bet that Cam Newton will look to him as a primary read because of their strong rapport; at a bargain price point and only 3% ownership, Olsen is a strong contrarian GPP play.

TEAM DEFENSES

TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:

CASH: In cash formats, my favorite play at team defense this week is the Seattle Seahawks at home against a Bengals team that is missing their best player (A.J. Green). The Seahawks lost a few pieces on their defense in the off-season (Justin Coleman and Earl Thomas), but the Bengals lost even more on their offensive line, which bodes well for the Seahawks' fantasy prospects at home with the "12th man" watching from the sidelines. You might also consider the Ravens going against the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Dolphins in Miami, which is entirely reasonable, but it will cost you a premium, as Baltimore is the most expensive defense on the main slate. If you want to save a few dollars, there is reason to justify doing so with either the Jets or Buccaneers; neither has an elite defense, but the Jets are at home and facing Josh Allen, who takes too many risks with the ball while the Bucs are just a punt defense that needs only a few things to go right to reach cash game value.

GPP: Anything is possible in Week #1. Our collective radars are generally miscalibrated because we do not have enough data points to adequately assess matchups this early in the season. If we accept that premise to be true (and it generally is), you should have more exposure to a wider variety of teams than you might typically have later in the season. In line with that thinking, I recommend 2/3 of the team defenses on the main slate this week. The masses will flock to Baltimore against Miami's below-average offense, but the Ravens are playing away from home, are expensive, and will be on 15-20% of tournament rosters, which makes them somewhat fadeable in GPP contests. You might give some extra looks at defenses playing against young quarterbacks (i.e., Jets vs. Josh Allen, Lions vs. Kyler Murray, Bills vs. Sam Darnold) or home teams who are big Vegas favorites (Eagles and Seahawks). Yet another option is Cleveland, whose defense is stocked with young talent playing at home against an error-prone quarterback in Marcus Mariota.

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