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The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
The Overlap
Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson, as one of the league's premier dual-threat quarterbacks, consistently ranks amongst the league's top producers at the position. In week 8, taking on Oakland's horrific pass defense, Watson separated himself from the pack as the most popular quarterback amongst sharp NFL DFS players. Ultimately, Watson made his way into 68-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, even given his top-dollar price tag of $7,100.
The Houston Texans entered week 8 with the highest projected team total of any team on the DraftKings main slate of games. The betting markets had the Texans projected for nearly 30 points last weekend, and the bulk of that scoring was likely to come through the air. Throughout the 2019 season, the Texans' rushing production has been erratic, but Deshaun Watson and the passing attack has been a steady force. Watson entered week 8 as one of the slate's most consistent producers under center, scoring at least 20.52 DraftKings points in five out of seven outings, and at least 29.84 DraftKings points in four of those seven. A home matchup in the dome of NRG Stadium, the passing game received a significant boost given the total absence of any weather concerns. Oakland's secondary ranks in the bottom-five of the NFL in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, and net yards per pass attempt this season. All of these factors played massive roles in Watson's popularity in week 8, and he topped the charts with the highest average h-value rating of any quarterback in week 8, according to FootballGuys' projections. Targeting these high-value quarterbacks has proven to be an elite strategy to begin construction of cash teams this season, and it will likely continue throughout the rest of the year. Watson paid off for the 68-percent of sharps that backed him in the $1,060 GIANT 50-50, producing 27.76 DraftKings points at $7,100.
Why Deshaun Watson?
- Quarterback for the team projected by the betting markets for the highest offensive output on the slate.
- Exceptionally consistent quarterback with both rushing and passing production.
- Matchup at home, in a dome, against one of the league's worst pass defenses.
Leonard Fournette
For the third consecutive week, Leonard Fournette was a popular and sharp selection for NFL cash games in week 8. Fournette, one of the few true bell-cow running backs in the NFL, has seen a slow and gradual price increase on DraftKings, but according to the sharpest NFL DFS players, $7,800 was still too low last weekend. Fournette appeared in just under half of the lineups entered into the GIANT $1,060 50-50 in week 8.
Leonard Fournette is one of few remaining three-down running backs in the modern NFL. In 2019, Fournette has continued his work as Jacksonville's dominant ball-carrier, but his expanded work in the passing game is particularly enticing for fantasy purposes. Through just eight games this season, Fournette is only three targets and one reception away from career-high receiving production this season. Through 8 games this season, Fournette has recorded at least 19 touches in every game, including 5 consecutive 25-touch games. Fournette's volume in Jacksonville's offense is nearly unmatched at the running back position this season. Yet, his price only increased marginally over recent weeks when he consistently ranked amongst the most-popular cash-game options for the sharpest NFL DFS players. In week 8, the Jacksonville Jaguars entered their game against the New York Jets as seven-point favorites. Typically, heavy favorites like this tend to deploy a substantially more run-heavy offensive approach. Considering Leonard Fournette rarely leaves the field, playing at least 84-percent of snaps in every game leading up to week 8, Fournette was primed to be the lone beneficiary of this increased volume. New York's run defense is a formidable unit, but Fournette's rushing and receiving involvement in Jacksonville's offense outweighed the matchup in the eyes of sharp NFL DFS players. The third-year running back made his way into 46-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50, as DraftKings failed once again to properly adjust his price for the massive role he plays in Jacksonville's offense.
Why Leonard Fournette?
- Continually underpriced running back that has repeatedly exceeded salary-implied expectations.
- Bell-cow running back averaging nearly 25 touches-per-game this season.
- Running back for heavy seven-point favorite, leading to an especially run-heavy offensive approach for his team.
Latavius Murray
Latavius Murray made his second straight start for the New Orleans Saints while Alvin Kamara missed another game with knee and ankle injuries. Murray's price increased slightly after slicing through the Chicago Bears' run defense in week 7, but not nearly enough. At just $5,800, Latavius Murray was rostered by 96-percent of sharp NFL DFS players in week 8's GIANT $1,060 50-50.
Two weeks ago, Latavius Murray erupted for 35 DraftKings points in his first start of the season. Murray posted 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chicago Bears' formidable run defense in week 6, Alvin Kamara's first game watching from the sidelines since sustaining nagging knee and ankle injuries. Murray, priced at just $5,100 in week 6, was wildly popular in cash-games in that game, and DraftKings only increased his price to $5,800 for week 7. In week 7, Murray and the Saints played host to the Arizona Cardinals' struggling defense. Arizona's up-tempo offense also maximizes scoring opportunities for not only the Cardinals but also their opponents, significantly increasing the value of the Saints' entire offense. Murray is fortunate enough to run behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines, and as long as they continue to clear holes for him or whoever else carries the ball in New Orleans' backfield, the Saints will continue to run the ball efficiently. In sum, Latavius Murray's price remained under-adjusted after assuming the starting role for the New Orleans Saints. This under-adjusted price, combined with an elite offensive line that has dominated even the toughest of defensive-fronts in recent years as well as an advantageous matchup against Arizona's struggling run defense, made Murray a near must-play at the running back position in week 8. At only $5,800, Murray made his way into a whopping 96-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings in week 8.
Why Latavius Murray?
- Minimally adjusted price as the team's spot starter without the starter, Alvin Kamara.
- Dominated last week behind against a strong run defense, in large part thanks to an exceptional offensive line.
- Running back for a 10-point favorite, leading to an especially run-heavy approach for his team.
(Last week's analysis used to project Kupp as a Sharp Play)
Although Courtland Sutton plays in a bottom-tier passing attack with the Denver Broncos, the second-year wide receiver has been a rare bright spot in 2019. Sutton's flashes of excellence this season show exactly why the Broncos used an early second-round pick on him in last year's NFL Draft. So far this season, Sutton has commanded at least seven targets in every game, registering at least 13.7 DraftKings points in 5 out of 7 games. Earlier this week, the Broncos traded Emmanuel Sanders to the San Francisco 49ers, removing the team's second-leading receiver from the equation. In Sanders' absence, Sutton will likely absorb a portion of the weekly volume that would have otherwise gone to the recently-departed wide receiver. This weekend, the Broncos head to Indianapolis to face off with the Colts' porous secondary. The Broncos are six-point underdogs this weekend, which should lead to a pass-heavy offensive approach from Vic Fangio's team. In short, Courtland Sutton's $5,300 price is unadjusted for his new and larger role in the Broncos' passing attack. This weekend against one of the worst cornerback units in the NFL, the Broncos are expected to air it out early and often, maximizing Sutton's value in the offense. Look for Courtland Sutton, one of the best second-year receivers in the NFL, to make his way into the majority of sharp NFL DFS cash teams in week 8.
Why Courtland Sutton?
- Receiver assuming a larger role in his team's offense following the departure of another top aerial threat in the offense.
- Matchup against the Indianapolis Colts' weak secondary.
- On the road, playing in a dome, as a slight underdog, which typically leads to increased passing volume for his team.
NEXT WEEK'S SHARP PLAY
In week 9, the Cleveland Browns head to Denver to take on the floundering 2-6 Broncos. The Broncos will be led by Brandon Allen, the team's backup quarterback, after the original starter, Joe Flacco, went down with a back injury. Thanks to the change under center, the Browns enter this game as over three-point favorites in the game, which typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack. Chubb is one of the most talented and most used running backs in the NFL, with at least 20 touches in 6 out of 7 games this season. So far this season, Chubb averages an impressive 5.5 yards-per-carry on the season, and a matchup against Denver's middling run defense is unlikely to provide much resistance next weekend. DraftKings finally made significant adjustments to player prices at the running back position this week, with Christian McCaffrey reaching the $10,000-mark and Dalvin Cook close behind at $9,500. Both of those top-end running backs are true bell-cow running backs for their respective teams, and in close games, like this game is projected to be for the Cleveland Browns, Nick Chubb joins that list of heavily-utilized running backs. At just $7,300, Chubb offer significant savings relative to the other top-priced running backs, and he has proven capable of producing impressive rushing numbers against almost any defense in the NFL. Last weekend, Chubb ran for over 130 yards on the New England Patriots' top-ranked run defense, and aside from his two uncharacteristic fumbles, he posted one of the most impressive rushing days of his young career. Expect the Browns to turn to Chubb early and often as they look to go on the road and secure a much-needed victory against a struggling Denver Broncos team hampered by injuries all over the field on both sides of the ball.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50