The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
The Overlap
(Last week's analysis used to project Matt Ryan as a Sharp Play for the week)
Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons head to Phoenix this weekend to take on the Arizona Cardinals' porous defense. Through the first five games of the season, the Falcons have been one of the NFL's most disappointing teams. In the midst of a 1-4 start to the season, Ryan has posted 5 consecutive 300-yard passing days. Now, in week six the Falcons enter the game as a road favorite of 2.5 points with an implied team total of over 27 points. The Falcons have struggled to build any momentum with the ground game this season, as they have yet to run for 100-yards as a team in any of their first 5 games in 2019. Expect offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to rely on Matt Ryan and Atlanta's consistent passing game to right the ship in a must-win game for the Falcons. For $6,500, Ryan is a slight discount from the other top-end quarterbacks on the slate, but he offers a very comparable floor/ceiling of fantasy production against Arizona's weak defense.
(Last week's analysis used to project Leonard Fournette as a Sharp Play for the week)
Leonard Fournette is finally fully-healthy in 2019, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are using him as a bell-cow running back. Fournette has played no less than 84-percent of snaps in any game this season, and he has tallied at least 20 touches in each of the last 3 games. Fournette's role in Jacksonville's passing attack has grown in 2019 with the arrival of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. Leonard Fournette has received at least six targets in four out of five games so far this season, providing an additional floor of production he has lacked in years past. This weekend, the Jaguars play host to the New Orleans Saints as one-point favorites. The New Orleans Saints have allowed seven rushing touchdowns already this season, the most in the NFL. At $6,700, Leonard Fournette's reliable volume both on the ground and through the air make him one of the top options at the running back position in week six. Look for the Jaguars to rely heavily upon the run game if they get out to a lead over the Saints, as they are expected to.
Le'Veon Bell rarely leaves the field for the New York Jets this season. After sitting out for the entire 2018 campaign, Bell made it clear that he was ready to handle a massive workload in his return to the field in 2019. In week six, 82.9-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings locked the New York Jets' bell-cow running back into their lineups for just $6,400.
New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold returned to action in week six after missing three straight games due to mononucleosis. During Darnold's absence, the Jets averaged under eight points-per-game. Unsurprisingly, posting just over a touchdown per game led to the Jets getting blown out in all three games without Darnold under center. The poor game scripts, coupled with exceptionally-difficult two matchups with the Patriots and Eagles, kept Le'Veon Bell's rushing production in check to open the season. This week, with Darnold returning to action, the Jets' offense was projected to improve drastically. A matchup with the Dallas Cowboys' defense did not jump off the page as a favorable spot for Le'Veon Bell in week six. However, Bell rarely leaves the field for the Jets, playing at least 88-percent of snaps in every game so far this season. Also, his role in New York's passing game has salvaged respectable fantasy performances on multiple occasions so far in 2019. Bell had recorded at least 20 touches in every single game this season leading up to this week seven clash with the Cowboys, including at least 4 receptions in each game. Le'Veon Bell's price dipped below $6,500 for the first time in 2019 this past weekend, but his rate of involvement in New York's offense far outpaces that price tag. 82.6-percent of the sharpest NFL DFS players locked Le'Veon Bell into their cash lineups in week six thanks to his suppressed price and unmatched rate of involvement in the New York Jets' offense.
Why Le'Veon Bell?
- Suppressed price of $6,400 does not match his 20-touch floor he has shown through the first four games of the 2019 season.
- The return of Sam Darnold increased the overall projections for New York's offense, which forced Dallas' defense to respect the passing game more than defenses had over the previous three games.
Malcolm Brown entered the 2019 season as the Rams' expected backup behind Todd Gurley. However, given Gurley's recent health issues, it was widely known that Brown might find himself starting for the Rams on occasion throughout the season to lighten the load on Gurley. In week six, Brown got the start for the Rams against the San Francisco 49ers, and at just $4,300, he made his way into 71.4-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Todd Gurley made his way to Los Angeles' injury report mid-week after sustaining a leg injury that ended up keeping him sidelined against the San Francisco 49ers. As Gurley's backup, Malcolm Brown frequently spelled Gurley in the Rams' backfield, playing approximately one-quarter of the team's offensive snaps throughout the first five weeks of the season. Now, as the starter, Brown was slated for a much larger role in the Rams' rushing attack. Through the first 5 games of the season, the Los Angeles Rams ran the ball an average of 23 times per game. As the team's number-one running back in week six, Malcolm Brown was primed to absorb the majority of the carries typically taken by Todd Gurley. Brown's expected involvement in the Rams' offense drastically exceeded all expectations associated with his meager $4,300 price tag in week six. After Gurley was ruled out, Brown's price was unable to be adjusted by DFS platforms, making him the strongest value option on the slate. When all was said and done, 71.4-percent of the sharpest NFL DFS players rostered Malcolm Brown in cash games last weekend. The value of a high-volume game for a bottom-dollar running back has proven to outweigh the downside of a tough matchup week-in and week-out in the eyes of sharp DFS players. While it did not pay dividends in week six, expect this strategy to work in the long-run.
Why Malcolm Brown?
- Todd Gurley missed this game after picking up a mid-week injury, thrusting Malcolm Brown into a starting role for the Rams.
- Brown's $4,300 price tag was unadjusted for his larger role in the Rams' offense, providing massive value on a slate otherwise lacking in strong bargain-bin options.
DeAndre Hopkins and the Houston Texans went into Arrowhead Field to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in week six as slight underdogs. This clash of offensive juggernauts was expected to be the highest-scoring game on the entire main slate of games. A juicy matchup, coupled with an expectedly pass-heavy game script, led to 82.9-percent of sharp NFL DFS players rostering DeAndre Hopkins in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Houston Texans entered week six as 3.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs' high-powered offense. In a game projected to total over 54 points between the 2 teams, the Texans' offense was expected to have more than its fair share of scoring opportunities in this game. Kansas City's defense still ranks as one of the NFL's worst units in 2019, even following a series of offseason trades and signings that they had hoped would right the ship. In week six, DeAndre Hopkins was primed to take advantage of Kansas City's weak secondary in a high-volume day for Houston's aerial attack. As 3.5-point underdogs, the Texans were expected to be playing from behind for most of the game, leading to a pass-heavy approach from the AFC South leaders. Given DeAndre Hopkins' massive role in the Texans' passing attack, this projected to increase his fantasy production more than any other player in Houston's offense. Hopkins ranks amongst the league-leaders in the percent of Houston's available targets and air yards that he commands on a weekly basis. With at least seven targets in every game this season, there was little reason to believe Hopkins would regress here in week six. 82.9-percent of sharp NFL DFS players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 locked DeAndre Hopkins into their lineups for $7,400 in week six. His combination of top-tier talent in a high-volume passing attack with a favorable matchup stood out as the best wide receiver matchup on the slate.
Why DeAndre Hopkins?
- Few receivers in the NFL match his talent and level of involvement in his team's respective offense, making him a strong play week-in and week-out.
- As 3.5-point underdogs, the Texans were expected to pass the ball more than they typically do. As the team's top wide receiver, Hopkins stood to benefit most here.
- Facing Kansas City's bottom-tier defense was unlikely to contain Hopkins. A matchup against such a poor secondary made Hopkins an exceptional play last weekend.
NEXT WEEK'S SHARP PLAY
Following a disappointing performance from the entire Los Angeles Rams passing game last week against San Francisco's stout defense, they face a far weaker defense this week. In week seven, the Rams head to Atlanta to face off with the Atlanta Falcons' horrid pass defense inside the dome of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. So far, in 2019, the Falcons' defense ranks in the bottom-five of the NFL in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, interceptions, and net-yards-per-attempt allowed. The Falcons also field one of the NFL's worst pass-rushes, tallying a league-worst five sacks through six games this season. Los Angeles' biggest weakness offensively is along the offensive line, where they struggle mightily to protect quarterback Jard Goff. When Goff has had time to throw, however, he is an effective quarterback, and Cooper Kupp is his favorite target. Kupp leads the NFL with 69 targets through six games. Kupp has converted these targets into 45 receptions for 522 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, all ranking in the top-6 in the NFL amongst receivers. The Rams have yet to face a secondary as weak as Atlanta's so far the season, and at $7,400 Kupp's price is not accurately adjusted for the matchup. The Rams and Falcons are expected to total over 54 points this weekend, the highest total on the entire main slate of games. There will be no shortage of chances for Cooper Kupp to wrack up receptions, yardage, and hopefully touchdowns against arguably the league's worst pass defense. Expect Kupp to be a mainstay in sharp cash lineups in week seven in a tremendous bounce-back spot of one of the NFL's most consistent pass-catchers.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50