The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
The Overlap
Christian McCaffrey has proven to be a cash cow throughout the first five weeks of the 2019 season for sharp NFL DFS players. Even a steep $8,700 price tag on DraftKings was unable to deter players from making room for McCaffrey in their cash lineups. 80-percent of players fit Christian McCaffrey into their week five cash lineups, and they were rewarded with a season-high 50.7-point performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Throughout the first month of the season, no player in the NFL was more involved in his team's respective offense than Christian McCaffrey. The former Stanford running back entered week five with 20 more touches than any other player in the league. McCaffrey, as expected, continued to be the focal point of Carolina's offense with Kyle Allen under center when the Panthers played host to the Jacksonville Jaguars. As three-point favorites in the game, the expected game-script favored a run-heavy approach from the Carolina Panthers. McCaffrey also doubles as one of Carolina's best pass-catchers on the roster. He entered week five tied for the team lead in targets with 31 and third on the team with 218 receiving yard (both rank top-three in the NFL at the running back position.) Rostering McCaffrey effectively provides exposure to a bell-cow running back that typically plays over 90-percent of offensive snaps for his team coupled with a leading pass-catcher for his team. The combination of rushing and receiving production made Christian McCaffrey worth every penny of his $8,700 price tag in week five, and he will likely continue to be a favorite play amongst sharps until his price increases dramatically.
Why Christian McCaffrey?
- Bell-cow running back playing upwards of 90-percent of offensive snaps regularly.
- Unmatched rushing volume and efficiency through the first month of the season.
- Playing for a slightly-favored team, which typically leads to a more run-heavy offensive approach.
- Ranks top-three in both targets and receiving yards amongst NFL running backs, increasing both floor and ceiling of production.
Since Drew Brees injured his thumb in week two against the Los Angeles Rams, the New Orleans Saints' passing attack has been significantly less-threatening with Teddy Bridgewater under center. One thing that has remained unchanged with Bridgewater at quarterback is Michael Thomas' volume in the offense. In week five, Michael Thomas' price inexplicably rose to just $6,600 after posting at least 16.4 DraftKings points in 4 straight games.
Michael Thomas entered week five with an astronomical 32-percent target share in the New Orleans offense with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. Even with the slightly more-conservative and less-valuable passes from Bridgewater, Thomas has had no trouble consistently stuffing the stat sheet once again in 2019. In week five, Thomas was gifted a premier matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccanneers' struggling secondary. Through 4 games, the Buccanneers allowed 7 different receivers to go for at least 89 yards, with 5 players tallying at least 100 yards. Michael Thomas also entered this week five as a player due for some positive touchdown regression. Through the first four games, Thomas was the second most-involved pass-catcher in his team's respective offense in the NFL. Typically, a receiver commanding such a dominant share of his team's receiving volume will find the end zone more than just one time over four games. In week five, Thomas regressed to the mean, adding a pair of scores to his 2019 total, en-route to a 44.2-point performance against the Tampa Bay Buccanneers. The sharpest NFL DFS players agreed that Michael Thomas was primed for a breakout performance in week five when the Saints played host to one of the NFL's weakest secondaries. At a perplexingly-low price of just $6,600, Michael Thomas did not break the bank, and he made for a great top-end option at the wide receiver position.
Why Michael Thomas?
- $6,600 price tag makes little sense for such a highly-involved wide receiver.
- Elite matchup against Tampa Bay's struggling secondary that has allowed 5 different receivers to go for 100+ yards.
- Player due for positive touchdown regression with just one touchdown through four games.
(Last week's analysis used to project Auden Tate as the Sharp Play of the Week)
The Cincinnati Bengals offense was embarrassed on national television by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 24-3 defeat to their divisional rivals. To add insult to injury, the Bengals placed wide receiver John Ross III on the injured reserve on Wednesday afternoon due to a shoulder injury he suffered late in the game. Auden Tate already had a role in Cincinnati's offense as the team's number-three wide receiver before the injury. In Ross III's absence, Tate moved up into the number-two spot on the depth chart. Tate hauled in 4 of his 6 targets for 50 yards on Monday night, and his performance was one of the few bright spots on the Bengals' roster in week four. Now, in week five, his price remains unadjusted at $3,500, even with his increased role in Cincinnati's offense because DraftKings released prices for the slate before the Bengals' week four game kicked off. Additionally, Tate and the Cincinnati Bengals play host to the struggling Arizona Cardinals secondary this weekend. Through 4 games, the Cardinals have allowed the opposition to score through the air 10 times without generating a single turnover in the passing game. The up-tempo offensive approach from Arizona also maximizes the play-count for their opposition, increasing Tate's fantasy viability. Tate enters week five as one of the best salary-saving options at the wide receiver position. His enhanced role in Cincinnati's offense combined with an elite matchup against Arizona's struggling secondary will likely make Auden Tate one of the sharpest cash game selections of week five.
Why Auden Tate?
- An injury to one of the team's primary wide receivers moved him into an unexpected starting role.
- Playing on Monday Night Football last week, DraftKings released prices before they could adjust Tate's salary to reflect his new role.
- A strong matchup against Arizona's struggling secondary that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns.
Next Week's Sharp Play
Leonard Fournette is finally fully-healthy in 2019, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are using him as a bell-cow running back. Fournette has played no less than 84-percent of snaps in any game this season, and he has tallied at least 20 touches in each of the last 3 games. Fournette's role in Jacksonville's passing attack has grown in 2019 with the arrival of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. Leonard Fournette has received at least six targets in four out of five games so far this season, providing an additional floor of production he has lacked in years past. This weekend, the Jaguars play host to the New Orleans Saints as one-point favorites. The New Orleans Saints have allowed seven rushing touchdowns already this season, the most in the NFL. At $6,700, Leonard Fournette's reliable volume both on the ground and through the air make him one of the top options at the running back position in week six. Look for the Jaguars to rely heavily upon the run game if they get out to a lead over the Saints, as they are expected to.
Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons head to Phoenix this weekend to take on the Arizona Cardinals' porous defense. Through the first five games of the season, the Falcons have been one of the NFL's most disappointing teams. In the midst of a 1-4 start to the season, Ryan has posted 5 consecutive 300-yard passing days. Now, in week six the Falcons enter the game as a road favorite of 2.5 points with an implied team total of over 27 points. The Falcons have struggled to build any momentum with the ground game this season, as they have yet to run for 100-yards as a team in any of their first 5 games in 2019. Expect offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to rely on Matt Ryan and Atlanta's consistent passing game to right the ship in a must-win game for the Falcons. For $6,500, Ryan is a slight discount from the other top-end quarterbacks on the slate, but he offers a very comparable floor/ceiling of fantasy production against Arizona's weak defense.
A second sharp play will be added to the article later this week, likely on Sunday morning.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50