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THE SHARP REPORT
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris’ bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players’ lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry’s smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report’s goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders’ super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players’ names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
THE TEAMS
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
Team 2 cashed in the $1,060 GIANT 50-50 while Team 1 finished towards the bottom of the standings. Team 1's failure to cash was, in large part, thanks to an injury to Ben Roethlisberger, which limited him to under three quarters of action
THE OVERLAP
(Last week's analysis used to project Austin Ekeler as the Sharp Play of the Week) In week one, Austin Ekeler handled the starting running back job while Melvin Gordon holds out in pursuit of a new contract. Ekeler was on the field for 75 percent of the Chargers' offensive snaps in the game, and he finished with an impressive 39.6 DraftKings points. Ekeler caught 6 of his 7 targets for 96 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in week one, in addition to his 58 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown. The Chargers will enter week two without starting tight end Hunter Henry after he went down with a fractured tibia plateau in his left knee. Henry and Ekeler work in similar parts of the field as quarterback Philip Rivers' safety valve in the passing game, meaning Ekeler's involvement in the passing game is likely to spike while the offense re-adjusts to life without its starting tight end. On the ground, Ekeler will likely see more than the 12 carries he tallied in week one. The Chargers enter week two as 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions, who fumbled away an 18-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Arizona Cardinals last week. In every facet of the game, Austin Ekeler is poised for a more significant role in week two than he saw in week one. A positive game script for the ground game, coupled with a necessity for Ekeler to step up in the passing game will lead the sharps to build around the Chargers' new starting running back in week two cash games.
Why Austin Ekeler?
- A highly-involved running back in his team's respective passing attack.
- Starting running back for a strong favorite playing in a dome.
- Middle-of-the-road price for a player that has proved to be one of the league's most efficient fantasy producers when on the field.
Josh Jacobs entered week two on the heels of an NFL debut in which he touched the ball 24 times for 113 scrimmage yards and found the end zone twice. DraftKings' early release of week two prices for the main slate left their pricing algorithm in the dark on this performance, as the Raiders kicked off at 10:30 PM ET on Monday night. Priced at just $4,700, 67.2-percent of sharps in the DraftKings GIANT $1,060 50-50 built teams around Jacobs at the second running back position.
Head coach Jon Gruden said in a press conference after week one that he expected Josh Jacobs to touch the ball over 20 times again win week two against the Kansas City Chiefs. The expected game script for Oakland's week two clash against the class of the AFC West did not lend itself to a run-heavy approach. The Raiders were 6.5-point underdogs at kickoff, which typically leads to a pass-happy comeback attempt for the losing team. There is little that went into the selection of Josh Jacobs in week three cash lineups aside from the fact that he is expected to be the team's bell-cow running back throughout the season and his price was not properly adjusted following his NFL debut in week one.
Why Josh Jacobs?
- Expected bell-cow running back for his respective team coming off a 24-touch game in his NFL debut
- Underpriced given his proven role in the offense due to DraftKings releasing week two prices before the Raiders played a game.
Keenan Allen, the Los Angeles Chargers' unquestioned number-one wide receiver, entered week two at $7,600 following an impressive week one performance against the Indianapolis Colts. In week two, against the Detroit Lions, 32.9-percent of high-stakes cash-game players identified as Keenan Allen as one of the strongest receiving options on the entire slate.
In the week leading up to kickoff against the Detroit Lions, the Chargers' passing game was dealt a significant blow: Hunter Henry suffered a fracture to his tibial plateau and is poised to miss over one month of action. Henry missed the entire 2018 season due to a knee injury he suffered in the preseason, and Keenan Allen finished the year ranked amongst the league leaders in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. One fundamental difference between the stretch of games Los Angeles played without Henry in 2018, and the first game without him in 2019 is the amount of time the Chargers were able to prepare an offense to play without a key contributor. In 2018, given the news of Henry's absence came in the preseason, the Chargers' coaching staff had weeks to prepare an offense to play without their starting tight end. In week two of 2019, the coaching staff had days to prepare its offense for life without Hunter Henry. In a situation of panic like this, teams frequently turn to their stars to pick up the slack. Keenan Allen fits the bill as the Chargers' top offensive playmaker, and the sharpest NFL DFS players correctly predicted that Philip Rivers would rely heavily upon Allen in the passing game while he readjusts to life without Hunter Henry.
Why Keenan Allen?
- Top-tier wide receiver poised to see an even larger role in his team's respective passing game thanks to an injury to another top pass-catcher in the offense.
- Playing at home as a slight-favorite in a game projected to amass 47 points.
Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams
Darren Waller, the Oakland Raiders' starting tight end, and Tyrell Williams, the Oakland Raiders' number-one wide receiver, checked in as two of the most mispriced players on the entire DraftKings main slate for week two. At $3,300 and $4,400, respectively, Waller and Williams both had prices assigned prior to playing week one for the Oakland Raiders, which gave great insight into their respective roles in the team's offense. 75.7-percent of sharps rostered Darren Waller in the GIANT $1,060 50-50, while 82.9-percent of them locked in Tyrell Williams as an elite value option at wide receiver.
The Oakland Raiders faced off with the Denver Broncos in the late-game of week one's Monday Night Football doubleheader. This extremely late start to the season forced DraftKings to release salaries for the week two main slate before the Raiders provided any meaningful data to the pricing algorithm. DraftKings erred on the side of caution and left the price of both Waller and Williams almost entirely untouched. While Tyrell Williams' price stayed the exact same, Darren Waller's price dropped $100 in the DraftKings player pool. In week one, both Waller and Williams proved to have significant roles in Oakland's passing attack. Quarterback Derek Carr targeted tight end Darren Waller with 8 passes, connecting on 7 of them for a total of 70 yards and 14.0 DraftKings points in week one. On the outside, Carr targeted Tyrell Williams 7 times for 6 receptions, 105 yards, and 1 touchdown- good enough for 25.5 DraftKings points. The involvement of both pass-catchers significantly outpaced the bottom-dollar pricetag they were assigned heading into the 2019 season. One final cherry on top for these two elite value options in week two was Oakland's expected game script. As 6.5-point underdogs, the Oakland Raiders were likely to be playing catch-up for the majority of the game. Typically, these teams throw the ball at a significantly higher rate than usual, providing both Waller and Williams with ample opportunity to produce. The sharps did not overthink things here and happily locked both Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller into their week two cash lineups.
Why Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams?
- Dramatically underpriced pass-catchers given their proven role in their team's passing game.
- Positive expected game script for the Oakland aerial attack as a 6.5-point underdog at home.
Next Week's Sharp Play
The injury bug bit the Philadelphia Eagles' wide receiving corps exceptionally hard in week two against the Atlanta Falcons. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery each missed most, if not all, of the Eagles' week two game in Atlanta and both will miss the team's week three matchup against the Detroit Lions. In week two, quarterback Carson Wentz targeted Nelson Agholor 11 times, just under 25-percent of Wentz's total pass attempts in the game. Heading into week three, Nelson Agholor is the Eagles' lone established deep threat that will be available to take on the Detroit Lions. Tight End Zach Ertz commanded record-setting volume at the tight end position, and while the absences of Jackson and Jeffery will certainly serve to benefit Ertz, Agholor's ability to stretch the field provides for a massive ceiling at just $3,600 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel. The sharps will almost certainly build around the incredible value provided by Nelson Agholor at the wide receiver position in week three before deciding which top-end plays to zero in on.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50