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The offseason plate tectonics have basically come to rest. We can survey the landscape of the NFL and ruminate on it for a month before the washing machine starts up again, but when that happens, we will have information coming at us at a Niagara Falls flow rate, so it’s important to firm up our starting point on player values so we have the proper framework to interpret that tidal wave of new data coming our way. Where do wide receiver PPR values stand right now?
UBERSTUDS
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
Davante Adams, GB
Julio Jones, ATL
Odell Beckham, CLE
It’s very difficult to sort this group out. Hopkins, Adams, and Jones all have quarterbacks that maximize their potential. Beckham has a new second-year quarterback, but the offensive scheme and quality of targets could spike. Hopkins has some risk with a terrible offensive line that could get his quarterback hurt. Adams had a concussion-marred year in 2017 that added a worry that could resurface if he suffers another one. Could he benefit from a more structured and innovative offense? Or was his 2018 enhanced by Rodgers going off script so often? Jones could have some regression from a 2018 outburst that greatly surpasses his 2016 and 2017. He could also benefit from the return of Dirk Koetter, who oversaw Jones’ career year (at the time) in 2014 and spent three years with him. Beckham with Baker Mayfield and Kitchens/Monk represents unknown upside. I wouldn’t talk anyone out of taking any of these players as high as 1.5 (or 1.1 really).
Strategy Tip: It’s possible to land two of this tier near the turn and that sounds like a championship foundation with the running back depth available near the turn. They also pair well with Travis Kelce as a 1-2 punch.
Monitor: Texans offensive line progress, Packers offense install, Beckham/Mayfield chemistry
MERE STUDS
Michael Thomas, NO
JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
Mike Evans, TB
T.Y. Hilton, IND
Keenan Allen, LAC
A.J. Green, CIN
This group doesn’t give you the warm fuzzies to quite the same extent as the uberstuds, but they are team cornerstones nonetheless. Thomas absolutely has the game and quarterback to be an uberstud, but he like his quarterback is subject to small volume floor games and that tendency will only intensify with the addition of Jared Cook and the likelihood of better complementary wide receiver play than 2018. Smith-Schuster will see more attention from defenses, but could also get an inordinate number of targets from Ben Roethlisberger. Evans destroyed his career high in yardage last year with only his #3 target season, and should still be in a high octane offense. He could easily end up being the best choice of the tier. Hilton was playing hurt a lot last year -- so there’s some hidden upside -- but also worry about a bad trend in health continuing. Hilton will also be joined by better complementary pass catchers. Like Beckham, his offense and teammates are better, but his volume could drop. Allen doesn’t post as many ceiling games as his peers, but is still a clear fantasy WR1, as is Green, who is only at the bottom of this tier because of two season-ending injuries in the last three years (slightly better than Beckham’s two in the last two years).
Strategy Tip: Two of Allen, Green, and Hilton can be a killer WR1-WR2 combination after a top four running back pick to start out your draft.
Monitor: Green/Hilton health, Tampa offense install, Smith-Schuster Usage
Volume WR1
Julian Edelman, NE
Antonio Brown, OAK
This is the end of the WR1 tier set. Both Edelman and Brown will have weekly top 3 ceilings and could be 1-2 in targets when the dust settles. Edelman has the risk factor of age and injury history, Brown is getting acclimated in a new offense. It is easy to see Tom Brady consistently targeting his longest-tenured receiver as he adjusts to a new era on offense. Brown is leaving that kind of relationship in Pittsburgh. It will surely affect his numbers and bring down his ceiling, we just don’t know how much. What Brown does have going for him is a quarterback who errs on the side of taking the short, safer throw. A hundred catches feels like a safe projection for him.
Strategy Tip: Avoid Brown in the third and hope Edelman falls to the fourth
Monitor: Carr/Brown chemistry, Patriots WR2 saga
High Ceiling WR2
Amari Cooper, DAL
Brandin Cooks, LAR
Sammy Watkins, KC
Allen Robinson, CHI
Tyler Lockett, SEA
This group all has the potential every week to post a top-five score, but they also carry lower weekly floors, which relegates them to WR2 value. Cooper has the best chance to jump tiers to WR1 status if a full offseason with and improvement in the Cowboys offense makes him even better. I won’t talk you out of taking him in the third and over Brown. Cooks went into a slump when the Rams offense did, which is slightly concerning, but the return of Cooper Kupp should help that, and we still generally trust the Rams offense in drafts. Do we trust Sammy Watkins to stay healthy? Some number of games the team’s primary wide receiver is almost certainly in his future and he’s having a healthy offseason. He’s the biggest if with the widest range of possibilities in this tier. Lest we forget, Robinson was a stud with Blake Bortles. Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that bad, come on. Robinson and this offense will be better this year. I’m ending up with him in a lot of drafts. Lockett is a fine fourth-round pick. His meager volume could increase and he’s likely to sustain elite efficiency because of quarterback play.
Strategy Tip: Watkins, Robinson, and Lockett are all killer WR3s where their potential variance is more tolerable and their ceiling games are more valuable.
Monitor: Watkins health, Robinson/Cooper camp buzz, Kupp recovery
High Floor WR2
Adam Thielen, MIN
Stefon Diggs, MIN
Robert Woods, LAR
Cooper Kupp, LAR
Thielen and Diggs have the mixed projection base of two different Viking offenses last year. The offensive line could get better, but all signs point to something resembling the run-heavy attack they were limited by after Kevin Stefanski took over. They are still solid WR2’s to roll out there every week, but Thielen isn’t going to approach his first half of 2018 run and Diggs still has the nagging injury risk. I’m a little lower on them than my peers, which means I never draft them. Woods and Kupp should have the same high weekly floor with a high likelihood of WR2 scoring and some WR1 weeks, but Kupp may take time to resume form and should be discounted a round or more from Woods, who is valued about right in drafts right now.
Strategy Tip: You can get your WR2 from WR3/WR4 picks and shouldn’t swing for a single in this tier.
Monitor: Vikings offensive line, Kupp recovery
READY FOR the next step?
Robby Anderson, NYJ
Kenny Golladay, DET
Corey Davis, TEN
Christian Kirk, ARI
Calvin Ridley, ATL
Chris Godwin, TB
Keke Coutee, HOU
Dante Pettis, SF
Mike Williams, LAC
D.J. Moore, CAR
Curtis Samuel, CAR
Whew. Speaking of WR3/WR4 than could turn into WR2 this year… This group should make up the meat of your round 6-8 wide receiver targets. Anderson, Golladay, and Davis are all ascendant WR1’s in their offenses. There’s some difference in quarterback play, which puts Davis third. Golladay’s variance when Golden Tate was injured stands out in his profile, as does Anderson’s late finish with a developing young quarterback. Davis could be frustrating again, but his price is still very reasonable for a player with his unknown upside. Kirk is in the exciting Arizona offense and could become Kyler Murray’s #1 in a prolific offense. Ridley and Godwin are more accomplished than Kirk and are probably safer picks, but half of the people or more in every league are higher on them than I am. Few if any are higher than I am on Keke Coutee. He should be the #2 target to open the season and if he can stay healthy, he’ll show more than he did last year. Pettis has a similar outlook, with health being the only thing that will hold him back from taking a step forward. I won’t talk anyone out of targeting Williams in this tier at ADP, his arrow is pointing up. Moore and Samuel are similarly valued in my eyes, but Moore is ahead by multiple rounds in most drafts. Take advantage of that as long as you can.
Strategy Tip: Anderson, Davis, Kirk, Coutee, and Samuel are your targets (for now). All have been undervalued in early drafts, but ADP is going to catch up soon.
Monitor: Anderson role, view of Gase, Mariota buzz, Arizona offense install Murray/Kirk chemistry, Coutee/Pettis health, Tampa offense install, Newton buzz
STRONG WR3/Flex
Jarvis Landry, CLE
Will Fuller, HOU
Tyler Boyd, CIN
This group will all be fine WR3s to march out there but have some potential downside from previous production levels. Landry will be in a stacked offense and might not stand out as much with the addition of Odell Beckham. Fuller is coming from an ACL tear and has a lengthy injury history, and Boyd could have more company for target, albeit in a possibly improved offense. Landry is slightly overvalued, the others are valued about right, but none are on my shopping list.
Strategy Tip: Fuller could be a good player to trade for if he starts slow
Monitor: Fuller recovery, Bengals/Browns offense install
SHRUG
Tyreek Hill, KC
He’s going to get suspended by the league, the reaction to no suspension and Hill being out there Week 1 would overshadow the opening of the season and that’s exactly what the NFL wants to use its personal conduct policy to avoid. Six to eight games seems likely, more is possible, less is possible. The commissioner’s exempt list is possible for the entire season. A new development in the case that endangers a lot more than a year of his career is possible. I have no idea how to adequately represent this in a ranking. With all of the uncertainty, I’m willing to take him about a round or three later than the team that takes him in drafts so far.
Strategy Tip: If you can stomach it, try to trade for Hill if he’s suspended eight games and his fantasy team starts slow
Monitor: NFL and Child Services Investigations
Aging WR3/Flex
Alshon Jeffery, PHI
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Marvin Jones, DET
DeSean Jackson, PHI
Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
All of these receivers have peaked, so the real question is how much is ADP factoring in this plateau in their careers? Jeffery will blend into a deeper offense this year (although he is healthier than last year at this time), Fitzgerald is adjusting to a new system and quarterback, Jones might be a mid-season trade candidate (is that a bad thing?), Jackson is on a new team, and Sanders is coming back from an Achilles tear. Jackson is the most exciting at ADP considering how strong he was last year with lesser quarterbacks and the positive early reports of his chemistry with Carson Wentz. Sanders is looking good in his recovery and could be a surprise value with Joe Flacco’s possible inclination to lean on the veteran in his passing game over the youngsters. Fitzgerald could be fun if he riffs with Murray in the Air Raid, I’m all for taking Cardinals this year.
Strategy Tip: Jackson and Jeffery could have very similar value in this offense even with Jeffery playing more snaps because of efficiency and depth of target.
Monitor: Wentz/Jeffery and Jackson chemistry, Flacco/Sanders chemistry, Sanders health, Fitzgerald fit
Worth a shot
Josh Gordon, NE
In a rational fantasy football universe, Josh Gordon would be a 10th round pick. There’s a good chance he won’t play this year, but if he does, he’ll be the #1 perimeter receiver for the Patriots. The team’s actions are consistent with building him up to reinstatement and he’s still in his prime at 28. If he isn’t reinstated or close to the end of the process by Week 1, you release him and have a spot to use in the most valuable waiver wire run of the year. It’s a win-win proposition.
Strategy tip: Reserve a pick for Gordon in the late rounds
Monitor: Gordon reinstatement buzz
UPSIDE Bench Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Geronimo Allison, GB (Possible Pivots: Jake Kumerow, Equanimous St. Brown)
Mecole Hardman, KC (Possible Pivot: Byron Pringle)
D.K. Metcalf, SEA (Possible Pivot: David Moore)
Devin Funchess, IND
Anthony Miller, CHI
Antonio Callaway, CLE
Marquise Goodwin, SF
John Ross, CIN
John Brown, BUF (Possible Pivot: Robert Foster)
Courtland Sutton, DEN (Possible Pivot: DaeSean Hamilton)
Demarcus Robinson, KC (Possible Pivot: Byron Pringle)
Andy Isabella, ARI (Possible Pivots: KeeSean Johnson, Kevin White, Trent Sherfield)
Hakeem Butler, ARI
Parris Campbell, IND
At this point in our drafts, we should be concerned about upside above all. Aiming for solid bench bye/injury/emergency depth in the late rounds is a waste of time. Good drafting and waiver wire moves should create that as a by-product. We want players with a chance to move the needle and if there aren’t signs they are doing that, we’ll move on and try to mine gold on the wire. We all have our pets in this tier, the point is to target yours. Valdes-Scantling has the look of Rodgers big play #2 this year in what should be a better offense and Allison was relevant before he got hurt last year. This one could be fluid, so be open to Jake Kumerow or Equamineous St. Brown making a move for more playing time. Hardman and Robinson could have early opportunity catching balls from Patrick Mahomes II. Also in Kansas City, Byron Pringle could join this list with a strong camp. Metcalf might be a high ceiling deep ball specialist from day one. Be ready to swap David Moore in here if Metcalf gets hurt in camp. Funchess gets to play with Andrew Luck against #2 outside corners. Miller was a sensation at times last year and wasn’t even healthy. Callaway gets the DeSean Jackson role with Odell Beckham drawing coverage on the other side. Why did we move on so quickly from Marquise Goodwin? Yes, he had an injury-riddled season, but he was a 5th-7th round pick projecting as Jimmy Garoppolo’s #1. Even with fewer snaps, he still has game-breaking ability on deep targets. That’s worth a late pick to see if they pick up where they left off in 2017. The Jonah Williams news is a bummer for the whole Bengals offense, but Ross remains intriguing late in what could be an improved offense. The Bills #1 receiver is worth a pick. For now, I’ll project Brown there because he’s so good, but Robert Foster should be mentioned here too. Sutton’s value is tied to Emmanuel Sanders health, which seems to be ahead of schedule. He faltered in an extended audition last year and has a new quarterback, but has flashed rare physical abilities. DaeSean Hamilton might be just as interesting in PPR leagues as a high volume target if Sanders never gets back to old form. Robinson could begin the year as the #2 in Kansas City, which is certainly worth a roster spot. Isabella and Butler will compete for early snaps and targets in the exciting Cardinals offense, their upside is unknown. Campbell will be a slot machine and can also get deep, in a great offense with a great quarterback. Any of these rookies could hit right away.
Strategy Tip: Think best case scenarios when you’re making picks in this tier. Which players could make you wish you had drafted them if everything lines up? Can you see everything lining up in their situation? We want talents on the ascending side of their career arc in either good offenses or with good quarterbacks (Both preferably)
Monitor: All of these players and situations need further examination to ascertain value
Need Clarity
James Washington/Donte Moncrief/Diontae Johnson, PIT
Marquise Brown/Chris Moore/Miles Boykin, BAL
Dede Westbrook/Chris Conley/D.J. Chark/Keelan Cole, JAX
DeVante Parker/Kenny Stills/Albert Wilson, MIA
Demaryius Thomas/N’keal Harry/Maurice Harris/Phillip Dorsett, NE
Some of these names could fit into the upside bench tier, but at this juncture, they present too much uncertainty to cut to the front of the lottery ticket line. That could change in an instant with an injury and the values will start to emerge as we get further into camp and the preseason. The nature of the situations indicates the possibility of committees as a solution, which further influences me to pass on the players associated with them.... For now.
The Steelers #2 receiver could be a relevant fantasy player, but there’s also Vance McDonald, Ryan Switzer or Eli Rogers in the slot and Jaylen Samuels doing more as a receiver out of the backfield (hopefully). Washington has a year in the system, Johnson is the type the Steelers make the most of, and Moncrief has the best physical tools.
The Ravens #1 job is up for grabs, with two touted rookies sidelined in the spring and one old standby showing out. Brown was drafted to be the #1, Boykin has a #1 physical profile and underrated game, and Moore has always flashed in limited opportunity. Moore was very close to making the upside bench list and I would target him in deeper early drafts since Brown’s foot is an uncertainty and Boykin already had a hamstring issue.
Jacksonville’s #1 will be worth more with Nick Foles than they would have been with Blake Bortles, but who will it be? Westbrook is the best returning receiver, Conley was recruited by Foles and had a good spring, Cole looked like he might be the #1 going into last year and Chark has the best speed and biggest team investment. Marqise Lee could complicate this if he comes back well from a severe knee injury.
The battle to be Miami’s #1 has a great cast of characters with perennial offseason star DeVante Parker having a chance to endear himself to a new regime and quarterback, accomplished deep threat Kenny Stills getting a dose of Fitzmagic, and emerging run after catch stud Albert Wilson nursing a mystery hip injury. The offense could be bad, but as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback, there will be potential value here.
New England’s top perimeter receiver could be Gordon as discussed above. It could be Demaryius Thomas if he comes back from his Achilles tear. It could be first-round pick Nkeal Harry. It could be returning role player Phillip Dorsett. It could be underrated free agent signing Maurice Harris. It will probably be a combination of these players if it isn’t Gordon.
Bye/Injury/Emergency Depth/Best Ball Picks
Golden Tate, NYG
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Mohamed Sanu, ATL
Trey Quinn, WAS
Rashard Higgins, CLE
Tyrell Williams, OAK
Breshad Perriman, TB
David Moore, SEA
Taylor Gabriel, CHI
Travis Benjamin, LAC
Michael Gallup, DAL
Quincy Enunwa, NYJ
Jamison Crowder, NYJ
Ted Ginn Jr, NO
Nelson Agholor, PHI
This tier has limited ceilings without multiple injuries in their offenses. There are some good players here and certainly some names that you will hope to see if you have to make a desperation play during the waiver wire gauntlet. They’ll all save your bacon from time to time in best ball leagues. For the most part, we know what they are and what they represent, so that makes them unexciting, and in my opinion unnecessary picks.
Tate and Shepard will be the most controversial inclusions here, but I see a Giants pass offense with four equally prominent targets, a smallish passing pie, and Daniel Jones looming. The best case scenario ain’t very best. Sanu is good and in a good offense, but probably treading water in terms of target share and consistency of box score impact. Quinn could be a Jalen Richard-esque cheap PPR play in an offense lacking downfield juice. Higgins is a name to file away if there are any injuries in the Browns passing game, and he’ll have occasional big plays as the versatile #4. Williams will have some big moments for the Raiders, but Derek Carr isn’t going to test defenses downfield as much as Philip Rivers did. Perriman needs to stay healthy, but he’s in the perfect system. He could arguably be a bench upside pick, and rookie Scott Miller is a name to remember if Perriman can’t stay healthy (again). Moore is the pivot if DK Metcalf gets hurt and should have some good games even if Metcalf plays in all 16. Gabriel will have his share of big plays in the Bears offense but will stay in a limited role in any scenario. Don’t forget about Benjamin, who will be on the field a lot more this year and is still the top deep target for Philip Rivers. Gallup is a rising talent, but how much will the #2 receiver in the Cowboys offense be worth with the addition of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten? The Jets have two viable slot high percentage types in Enunwa and Crowder. Enunwa has the existing chemistry with Darnold, but Crowder looked like a rising star two years ago before the Washington offense collapsed. Ginn was still the #2 receiver when healthy, although we should watch for TreQuan Smith gaining on him. Agholor should be the #3 in Philadelphia this year, although we should watch for J.J. Arcega-Whiteside gaining on him.
Deep Best Ball Picks
Paul Richardson Jr, WAS
Adam Humphries, TEN
Taywan Taylor, TEN
A.J. Brown, TEN
Cole Beasley, BUF
Willie Snead, BAL
Danny Amendola, DET
Randall Cobb, DAL
Josh Doctson, WAS
Deebo Samuel, SF
Between situation and player, there probably isn’t going to be much there in this tier, but there will be some volume of targets and production and in the very deep best ball drafts they will be players that fill in a lineup crack or two. The presence of Brown and Samuel here might shock some, but Brown is sharing with three good receivers in a limited pass offense and Samuel is being converted to a slot receiver and might blend into a deep group the 49ers have there. Samuel could have an impact later in the season, but I expect a slowish start and wouldn’t draft him.
In case of injury, Break glass
Josh Reynolds, LAR
He was relevant at times last year when he was called up and he’s still developing. If Cooper Kupp has any issues in his return to the field, Reynolds becomes an upside bench pick.
